General Betting
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With all the big winners allegedly about to scrap it out bare knuckle style in the down market alternative ring, I shall be doubling my stakes, for at least the first week here, to take advantage of the new more level playing field afforded by their departure..
Results may well go against me, but, imvho, it's well worth a shout..?
..and no, I wouldl have to improve five fold in that week before I get hit by the new PC, and, by God, if I do I shall be well pleased! :)
Good luck to all those remaining...
Results may well go against me, but, imvho, it's well worth a shout..?
..and no, I wouldl have to improve five fold in that week before I get hit by the new PC, and, by God, if I do I shall be well pleased! :)
Good luck to all those remaining...
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Replies: 45
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Careful - £4 is a lot of money to lose on one punt.
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The wits are out in force today...!
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But not tomorrow.
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See you tomorrow, then..
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It`s a myth. The odds here and on purple will remain much the same. If nothing else the arbers will take care of it. If you could not win before you will not be any more able to win now.
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good move Dave C
Lets fill any little little little void they may leave I started a new bot I call my "Troy McClure Bot" on the 9th of september to provide liquidity to the horse racing markets. we can all gladly take the money the traders use to take. Happy days for positions takers! |
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markomar
that right..prices will not get out of line |
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What ever happens tomorrow please rest assured the losers will still be losers.
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Magician, yep, totally agree... Think it will be an interesting week..?
Have bugg ered my back up so no golf, which means I can spend more time than usual playing(investing?), and monitoring, than usual, so am looking forward to it.. Good luck with the Troy bot, hope it hasn't got a forum module..? :) |
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frames, not true, those that are only just losers or breaking even will move into the space vacated by the advantaged winners, and, now knowing the new regime, should be able to manage their affairs to avoid charges..
However, I agree, there will always be the no-hopers, but at least they are now available to you and me..? |
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Dave C
No forum Module - but working on it.... :o) The Troy McCLure bot is makeing good money since I turned it on - long may it continue |
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It doesn`t matter if you are getting matched by a no-hoper or a shrewdie.
A bet at 4/1 is stil just a bet at 4/1 in either case. |
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Very true, but if the shrewdie is first up with a big wedge, you won't get matched, now maybe you will..?
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every winning trader ( that hates paying 20%) that leaves for purple
is.... good for Betfair good for Me good for Dave C bet up mate - not irrationally (you might hit bad results) - but yes there is an advatage to betting up with winners going elsewhere. when they come back you might have already realsied you can outcompete them |
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Hopefully I never bet irrationally, although I often bet unsuccessfully, which is why I won't get hit with the charge..
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don't bet on us all going
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MugsGame
evene thier threat of leaving have inspired several people to say I will take thier place.... and think perhaps I can have a winning stratergey in that space... even if/when they come back I started my Troy McClure bot on september 9th - and I love it |
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MugsGame, I'm not.. However, I was winning when they were all here so I can cope if they all stay.. However, if some go, then I will hopefully do better..
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Just suppose Dave C, that you had 30 weeks of consistent profits (last year you escaped the premium charge, but only just.
Your percentage is now 12% and you pay 8% premium charge. The next 30 weeks is pretty bad and your percentage is 36%. Overall your percentage is 24% but you still pay Betfair an extra 4% of your profit over the 60 weeks. Hardly fair. And its alright about bleating about just doubling your stake, you could do that anytime if you're consistently making profits. The fact is, if enough people leave or place bets in other places, you may just not get the prices you want. And its not just the fast pic folk and hooverers that are threatening to leave. |
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I escaped the premium charge by a mile so it's not an issue for me..
Sure some principled people are also leaving, or say they are, but they are insignificant, no offence intended, compared to the really big winners, so I stand by my previous comments.. It will all come out in the wash soon anyway..? |
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It might not be an issue for you now but whos to say Betfair wont either increase this to 25% 30% etc or introduce other charges that further erodes the profit you can make from this site.
This premium charge is about adding extra profit to their balance sheet. Anyone who thinks different is sadly deluded in my opinion. FWIW im a net loser over the last 60 weeks, so it affects me probably a lot less than it does you. Doesnt stop the charge being unfair and I will personally move my business to the other site if the liquidity is there, purely bacause I dont this is the last new charge you will see from Betfair. If they get away with this one, the exchange model is dead. |
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No-one can say, but until they do, and it affects me, then I see no reason to move..
I can't blame any business for wanting to improve their bottom line.. |
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Dave C, Purple site is 2% for everyone. What do you pay on here? I'd wager it's more than that. There is no reason to stay on here. In any case your reasoning is incredibly short sighted. Betfair is making enormous profits already. There is no reason for them to implement this tax. Arguably there profits are about to decrease in any case.
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2%
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.. and arguably they are going to lose profits, and in which case Betfair have fouled up.. However, my reasoning is short sighted as that is as far as I can see through the murk of the next few weeks.. If it all changes then I will adapt, but at the moment I see no point in swapping horses..
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You start winning in less than an hour anyway Dave C, must be a great feeling to have.
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it would be a nice thread if you were actually making a wage out it dave but i doubt you are!!!
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I believe good quality betting is down to what you do yourself really, not what other people are doing. In this case you could simply be passing more money to the exchange rather than a fellow punter.
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What would you call a wage..?
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ncp, first bet won't be until 11.03..
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First two events winners.. :)
Absolutely no change in Greyhound liquidity as far as I can see.. |
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it must be cos some of those folk left then.
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Suspect I would have won anyway as liquidity is the same..
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might go to nottm dogs tonight looks a decent card
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Good luck if you do..!
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cheers just wanna back a couple of dogs so hope i can resist temptation in other races lol
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Based on the fact the charge doesn't affect you, you must have been a loser, so doubling stakes mean more mug money in the system. Great!
Liquidity will not leave the system immediately but it's only a matter of time IMHO. |
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if u pay the 20% there ought to be some kind of instant display so you know what deduction in price you are getting at the time of the bet, the same as you can work it with commission; its a bit too hazy otherwise as regards which bets you can and cant accept at any given time
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Buddha's belly, you are obviously one of the many who hasn't a clue what this charge is about.. It is clearly possible to win without paying it.. I also know exactly how much more I can win before I do pay it..
However, I do have some losers, and at double the stakes then there will indeed be more of my money in the system... Get it if you can.. |