trading big on footy

If you are confident in your pricing and market moves then yes this could be done

yeah cheers,but is there anyone on here that you know.nicking a point or two with big bucks is not hard,and very profitable

Footie is not my game and I don't know anybody who does it.

Unless you are really good just because you are playing with big bucks doesn't make things easier. Often on the markets on here, the more you bet the harder it gets.

here goes with a trade,albeit a market with limited timescale.manc v blackburn match odds
back man city 10k 1.52 matched
lay man city 10134 1.5 unmatched at present
if matched man c +126.75
blackburn or draw +127.70

lets see how it goes

at the time of laying this is the market

1.46 £27,679 £97,365
1.47 £33,195 £116,188
1.48 £7,187 £100,933
1.49 £4,819 £60,276
1.50 £18,871 £57,514
1.51 £33,047 £126,898
1.52 £12,296 £71,183

drifting out to 1.54 at moment,biggest its been

Lost a boat load over the weekend. Would have been going ball deep on Man city today if I hadn't. I think 1.54 is a decent price. You should be ok with that coming in before Kick off.

but do you know why its drifting?

you should have laid at 1.44 :)
if you're playing with stakes like this surely you'd be, at least attempting to, jumping on board as the market's going in the correct direction not forming a contrarian view with guesswork?
How are man city affected by the African Nations Cup, who's injured for them, suspensions, Robinho doesn't like the cold ;) do they perform well against hard working, physical, battling teams. I get the impression you stake with your head rather than other factors and what the market is telling you, good luck

What will you do if it doesn't come back in ? Will you trade out for a guaranteed loss if the price stays at 1.54 - 1.55 , or even higher ?

Yes this is the key - what do you do if the market doesn't go your way?

And if you don't trade out before the match , what would roughly the odds for City be if they scored after 15 - 20 minutes and what would City price be if Blacburn scored after 15 - 20 minutes ?

you have to be disciplined and trade out, been doing it a while 500-1000 stakes, i always leave all green on the team i've traded, generally their favourites and top4/6 teams. the killer is when you get 500 matched on utd at city at 3.4 and lay at 3.1 and then they cancel the bleedin game....... ach

just looked at the graph and the support level was 1.55 so if it was me i'd have my lay in at 1.49 and a back ready at 1.55

trade out,lay out(eg lay at 1.54 for 9870,more or less -130 whatever happens),and maybe play with liability in play

I know it will depend on how play has been so far in the match , but what odds do you guys thinh City will be if the first goal is scored after 15 minutes , both the 1-0 and 0-1 options please ?

City 1.18ish Blackburn 2.5 ish

Thanks buzzer , not to far off what I would have guessed.

Yes skids you have to trade out. You cannot let your bet go in-running.

So then it's all down to how good you are. Can you get it right enough times to make it pay?

agree with the eagle if city 1 up,but i reckon 2.22-2.3 if blackburn

skids , that has to be to low. If they are 1.52ish pre match , they must be higer than 2 .2 - 2.3 when 1-0 down ?

yeah maybe eagle,mines a hunch

problem will be when you get it right its easy to give it away (when playing for 10k) - so when you back evens and it goes to 1.9, the 10k will be swept up.

When it goes the wrong way you may struggle to shift the 10k. Not in a prem game I wouldn't think, but sometimes in that sort of volume you can't give it away, especially if there's a big drift.

You seem to have jumped in on man city without much research as to the way the price has moved this morning, team news, etc. I very much doubt its that easy to make money.

no i have NOT USED REAL MONEY,but trading in REAL MARKETS(EG could have backed it at 1.52,and the lay put in),thats why i put up the market info so we you can see if what i am saying is true

skids - you'll find that when you do start using real money you will notice a subtle difference in market behaviour - because your own money is affecting the market itself. That's why paper trading doesn't always provide accurate results., especially where large sums are used.

Too true. Market affected by your wedge and also you affected by having a real wedge on rather than a paper wedge. Neither should be underestimated.

the post i put about the man utd v everton match was REAL money,and i have had plenty since,just dont have the disposable income at the moment to do it as i have had a messy divorce.

But if it works with 10k then will work with 1k and so on.

If you are good enough, then the funds will build from whatever your starting stake.

yeah it will but 2% of 1k compared to 2% of 10k big difference,bigger bank makes it a whole lot easier

just dont have the disposable income at the moment

Surely given the above 2% of 1k per match you do is worthwhile and build it up gradually?

If you don't think it is worth it for a smaller stake than 10k then why are you effectively asking if it can be done?

if you can make aton or tenner i know what i go for

if you're any good those £10's will soon add up though

Skids, not interested in getting involved in-play?

i do but i like looking at strategies that involve less risk

What are you going to do when the market starts drifting away from you and you can't get out for anything less than a loss? This will happen and if you don't want to keep bets going in play you're going to have to know when and why the market will move.

And if you can figure that out, please tell me.

About 1.15 and 2.75 respectively.

If ManC went 1-0 down in, say 20 mins I'd have them about 2.75 and rising.

i would lay off before in play

you could only lay off before in play if the price changes.

as an earlier post asks...what happens when a markets drifts away from you? cut losses with a red book?

unfortunately yes,and as it has gone out to 1.57 it would cost a few quid.but i did this game without a lot of research,and against what i said at the beginning of the thread that you back and lay 3-5 days apart

it went as high as 1.59 but i presume you'd have been out at 1.55 maximum

yeah no more,its obvious then it was not gonna come in to what i wanted

cheers skids - good luck with your trades.

1.63 biggest price pre kick off, the sort of movement you'd be looking for just not in the right direction

and rising........

you need to look closely at the asian price peferably one thats a live price

that will move before betfair and you can trade accordingly

if the asian price is a -1.0 or -1.0/1.5 -1.5 price then you need to work that out using the handicap tie or margin by 1 price that will give you the match price which may or may not be higher than here

early goal for man city laying at 1.22

best sticking to premiership football, it's probably the most difficult to predict big movements as the pricing is very solid, but the liquidity is outstanding, so as long as you're disciplined/selective and have a big tank, there's good money to be made. champions league, big international games also very do-able. anything else there's no point really. not on betfair anyway.

To me this example shows the exact problem with the pre match (or pre race) trading. In going for two ticks profit, you potentialy lose 10 or more here depending on where your get out was.

So now you have to get the next 5 correct just to get back to even.

I traded the NASDAQ in 1999, the hey day of day-trading, people playing a tick.

My bank was $50,000 including margin. So I know a bit about the market going for me....and against.

I cannot tell anyone "how to trade" since we all use our own approach. When I make my million and do it in a consistant fashion, then maybe I'll figure out how I did it and share it with the world. Till then, I learn every day, sometimes the hard way.

I've met some really intelligent players over the years. As successful as some are, none have the "golden goose". I learnt that there are no "click and win" approaches to betfair. I've learnt that an approach on horses will not work on the dogs and will not work on football.

As I said, I can't tell anyone how to trade or make a positive run on betfair but I will offer some views that might trigger something positive in your approach:

A) Understand the sport you are trading on: Some simply trade on a market but understanding it gives you a better understanding of when to get in and out. It also helps you look at parrallel markets to trade in or reduce risk (have a horse go against you? On offer at 4.0 in place? Put a couple of quid on the place to reduce the exposure). It helps you understand why and when the markets move (starting line-ups in the Premiership/football NHL are made public 30 minutes before the game. Markets will adjust according to the news.)

B) Learn to use your bank: If you put your whole bank into a single position or trade, you are stuck with that position and are now going to live and die by it. If you lay at 1.52 and the market moves in to 1.48, you have no option. If 30% of your bank had been used at 1.52, you could put another 30% in and the average lay now becomes 1.50. The option is to red out at 1.49 / evens at 1.50 or a tick at 1.51 based on your assessment of the market.

C) When you put your money up, you are building a wall: When I was trading the NASDAQ, I had a stock that I had purchased at "$51.00". I remember every time the price hit 50.50 against me, 300,000 appeared at $50. "Someone must really want to buy. It's going to go up" I though. It bounced several times up to 51/51.50 and I didn't get out. I had up my trade at 52.50. It never got there. After several bounces, the 300,000 disappeared and the price plummetted and I lost around $5 a share in seconds. I looked at it afterwards; It had been "fill or kill". Someone had put it there to keep the price up till they could fill to short or to get out of a smaller position before the "real price" plummetted. You can't do "fill or kill" on betfair but what we learn from this: If you buy £300 at 6.8 and immediately put up an ask at 6.6 at £300, you have a wall £300 high that others will cue in front of you at 6.60. The trader who "understands" the market, will take their money out or put some at 6.6, 6.4 and 6.2 and will monitor from there.

D) Look for parrallel markets: There are plenty of ways to trade out and create liquidity at the same time. Example: HT/FT - how many times have you had money locked in profit that you wish you could get to after an hour? There are ways. You just have to learn the math.

E) Learn to "red out": trade went against you? Most take a straight loss against that position. Learn the math to spread the loss over several positions, regroup, then, if you see a clear and positive way to "reduce your exposure" then step back into the pool. Don't try to make a profit on the market. Do that once you have reduced the exposure.

F) Don't rely on automated: People rely on the green out/red out, etc, without understanding the math. If you understand the math, you can make moves that will lead to more gains than all those youtube gurus offer. Learn the math.

G) A massive bank does not mean a massive profit: Ask me in a year about this. I spent the latter part of 09 regrouping first by going back to simply punting and planning for twentyten. Look over your gains. You will see that the small gains added up and perhaps there were some heavy risks that caused you to break from your game plan (we all have. we are flesh and blood. not rOBoTs).

H) there are options beyond "the tick". Find them. Learn how related markets react and learn to anticipate. If you rely on "the tick", you rely on the movement of dozens are others.

I) Live and die by your own sword: As I said, every trades their own way. Stick to it and and never stop learning.

SHAPESHIFTER
survivor since Apr 2003

can't argue with any of that!

SHAPESHIFTER

I was trading STOCKS and TO's mainly. Did you use charts,ie 'Tick'.

Enough with all this useful advice, Shapeshifter. Now give us a tip for Bristol City v Swansea. That's what everyone wants. You're just clogging up the forum.

Cardiff to buck their recent form.. happens every year over Christmas. Market thinks Bristol are a bogey but Cardiff should be favs. Very nice prices for 0-3 and 1-3

kohaku,

my screens looked like the enterprise but I customized and designed my own parameters to try to find entry and exit.

Everyone watched the same charts (RSI, etc). I found that I had to adjust the reads against volume for them to have any use. So throttles were built.

My partner would do a "tick" I still remember him finding some low volume stock and grabbing equivalent to 2/3's of their daily volume....then sitting there.....on a sunny july day.....I left at 11, met friends for lunch, same back at 2.......and he was hunched there....waiting.....I went and played a round of golf.....he met me after for drinks...."did you sell it?"
"Yes"
"How much did we make?"
"$27.00".

Life in the fast lane.

Charts on betfair (In my opinion) are good to see long term movements and highs and lows (though you need to interprete what the "real" high and lows are).

Alot of charts and graphs out there for betfair. But too much short term flash and grab to make them useful at any particular moment (my opinion).

Bought a company called ZERGO at 667p sold at 827p,nice profit.. they later changed their name to BALTIMORE TECHNOLOGY,who later went on to touch £152...lol

Max profit could have been 234k...never mind.Still waiting for the double bottom in the market.

My big winner......1997......a penny stock....canadian...DION Entertainment.

Brick and mortar bingo halls......

I used to buy at .10 and sell at .18

It yo yo'd up and down all the time.

Would buy $1000 and cycle around six times a year.

1997 (or 98)...I am on the road with a band....no internet so call the bank from a phone booth to see the price.
"four point eighty six" she says.

:( It's dropped for the first time.

"So if I sell, how much will I have?" expecting to hear around $500.00

"$46,654"

I'm in the middle of nowhere Canada in a phone booth. "SELL" I yell. "SELL!!!!!"

The band comes out of the restaurant and sees me staring at the blue, blue sky.

I tell them what happened, barely able to speak.

The drummer, paul, runs for the phone.

He had bought some earlier that year when i told him about the cycle I had been doing.

Needless to say, drinks were on us for most of the tour.

It turned out DION Entertainment had announced that they had acquired the name www.bingotv.com and were going on-line.

A total tech hype from the purchase of a domain name.

All a scam at a time when everyone was tech crazy.

I think this is the press release that did it but I thought it was 1997. Would have to find the old graphs on-line


http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-20345867.html