What are the true odds ?

Betfair odds look like a bargain but maybe someone who knows the horse won't win has layed it for heaps?

That is what i was thinking, normal people would not be laying a horse that short in the Aussie market for double the price , so maybe insiders who know the horse wont win are just cashing in .

Impossible to begin comparing the two as they have a completely different customer base , admittedly exchange volume is a contribution from a 96% losing customer base but any large staking shrewd punters wouldn't use the tote as their influential stake level would reduce the dividend and consequently dissipate any value for themselves , the tote on the other hand depends on a contribution from every type of punter with no conception of value , basically they are flutterers who are generally unaware it's a pool bet with a fairly large deduction taken before a dividend is declared.

I'ts a different world.

I do agree the tote punters generally have no idea of value, but as is always the case, if you get enough of these people together the price will become value, you can't say the tote on the Melbourne Cup with several million in it is not getting close to true value +20% even though so many of the punters are 1 time a year mums and dads.

But I do tend to agree, which is why i take more notice of the Betfair prices, but if the Aussie bookies have the horse at 6.5 and tote at 7 , it is hard to ignore the 16 on betfair as a good lay bet.

Reason being that I feel someone in the know is laying it for heaps, and the not so in the know punters are holding it under it's true price based on them thinking it is really 7 shot.