General Betting
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I wonder how much better off football punters would be if we compiled a list of self-imposed
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My first rule is: Don't have any unbreakable rules.
If you go down the "rules" path, you may find you'll have nothing left to bet on! |
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My first rule is -'don't ever back a footballl team'. Works very successfully for me ;)
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Used to be don't bet on or against Man City.
Now replaced by Wigan, who have won at Villa and Burnley (only team to do that), beaten Chelsea as well, smashed 9-1 at Spurs and somehow managed to lose at Pompey! |
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Whats the point of this?
Barcelona away if Messi is missing. Ill give you 2/1 Barca away to Tenerife with no Messi and you arent going to take it? |
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assuming realistic prices, ahem.
bad teams at odds on. |
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macorad 03 Jan 23:00
Whats the point of this? Barcelona away if Messi is missing. Ill give you 2/1 Barca away to Tenerife with no Messi and you arent going to take it? ------------------------------------------------ Barca wouldn't be 2/1 at Tenerife without Messi. They'd be something like 1.40-1.50 - and I wouldn't take that either. |
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but there must be a price you would take , missing a key player lessens a team's chance , but it don't mean they have no chance.
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tobermory 03 Jan 23:49
but there must be a price you would take , missing a key player lessens a team's chance , but it don't mean they have no chance. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OK then, let's just call it 'as a general rule'. Of course, you need to remain open-minded and be prepared to be flexible in-running, seizing opportunities if and whern they arise. I'm just saying that I try to apply my 'rules' if the pre-match starting prices don't reflect the factors mentioned in my original post. Man U's price at KO today (what was it, 1.28 or something ridiculous?) clearly didn't take into account the fact that Brown, Neville and Evans were in their back four. As it happens, I lost money on United, too. But by backing them at 2.00+ after going 0-1 behind, I didn't feel as bad as I would have if I'd taken the silly KO prices on offer. I thought they were value at that price. Similarly, I lost backing Real Madrid tonight. But again, I'd backed them at 2.00 (early in the 2nd half) - not the 1.5 they were at KO. Yesterday, I 'broke' my own rules by backing Barca at a very low starting price, and also did the 'Overs'. Their performance just showed me how good Messi makes Ibrahimovic look, because without the little magicaian creating countless chances and taking the heat of Ibra and Henry, they were not as effective. |
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1. never back overs in any game if the temperature's around or below freezing.
2. never back a team with more than 5 british/irish players in a christmas period fixture. |
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Don't back a team odds on. If you have the confidence in the team winning on the road, then look at HT/FT or HCP for better value or a minor flutter on a correct score
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Sorry, should have read:
Don't back a team odds on when they are on the road. If you have the confidence in the team winning on the road, then look at HT/FT or HCP for better value or a minor flutter on a correct score |
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''Key'' players missing for individual matches has marginal effect, and has been proved before now.
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One rule. There are no 'point and click' systems. Everything should be judged on it's merits, including odds on chances.
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kenilworth 04 Jan 13:18
''Key'' players missing for individual matches has marginal effect, and has been proved before now. True for the majority of the season. Have found that early in a season while a team is trying to find a consistant form, ability to read each other in game situations, that tactically managers have one or two players they focus their attack on till he can see how the entire team is in a game situation, that losing a "key" player can create a "no bet" decision rather than, say, opposing. Arsenal an example this season; early on, it looked shakey till they found their depth and players were positioned to fill the gaps Chelsea: players off to Africa BUT they have had weeks to prepare for this so, as kenilworth has pointed out, the headlines will make the drama and the talk while the team will remain in form |
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viva el presidente! 04 Jan 12:03
1. never back overs in any game if the temperature's around or below freezing. Typical once you type something..... Stock 3-2 Nott 3-1 Arsenal 2-2 was there a fulham game this week as well? |
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sorry, stoke....3-2
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Man Utd home or away if Vidic is missing.
Man Utd home or away if Wes Brown is playing. Arsenal against a top 4 team if Fabregas is missing. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Man Utd's defensive weakness exposed again at Birmingham tonight. Arsenal fail to win at home to Everton without Fabregas. Just be careful if Messi and/or Villa are missing for Barca and Valencia away on Sunday. |
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''Key'' players missing for individual matches has marginal effect, and has been proved before now."
That may be true, i don't know the stats, but i find it hard to believe, as some certain key players really control their teams, Arsenal without Fabregas are half the team, and Liverpool without Torres and Gerard are certainly a huge difference, i can't believe it is marginal. |
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Trying to predict results is an extremely difficult business, but I guess most gamblers believe that it is possible long term? As this thread is about rules, for me rule No1 is do not try to predict the outcome of a match. I guess others can do that successfully?
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OK, from now on I'll log results affecting my 'rules', to see how it pans out. To be honest, the references to Wes Brown and the Lucas/Mascherano duo were tongue in cheek, but let's leave 'em in here just to see.
I wish others would add their own 'rules' or warnings for the clubs they folllow, so that we can combine our local knowledge and, hopefully, save each other a few bob. ------------------------ DONT BACK |
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you only had to see the arsenal game v villa to know fabregas makes a difference. Manu wouldn't have lost/drew so many games with Ronaldo. Any price less than 1.5 without key players must be layed v top/middle opponents.
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It would be interesting to know Arsenal stats with and without Fabrecas. I do know that while Ronaldo was with ManU their average points with him was only marginally better than it was without him.
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