General Betting
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07 Jan 10
18:36
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24 Apr 08
Why is this and who would benefit from setting them correctly?
Surely by requesting incorrect odds you profit, so how would prices always end up correct unless backers and layers always had the smae information, did the same research and formed the same opinion?
Surely by requesting incorrect odds you profit, so how would prices always end up correct unless backers and layers always had the smae information, did the same research and formed the same opinion?
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In - running is where the massive value is .
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its all to do with averages
which mean nothing on here hth |
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You look at a match and put the home team at 5/7 (1.70)
The bookies have it at 8/13 (1.60) Betfair is offering 1.65 including commission so more or less what the bookie offers. You ASK what you priced it up based on your research. You put up 1.70 as a keep price. If you are right, the price will drift at the kick-off and you will get matched. If they perform better than you expected and go on the attack early and score in the first ten minutes, you won't get matched but you didn't expect this. Over the long term, if you are reading matches correctly and dependant on your strike-rate, you will find that your ROI will be better and when the three losses in a row come, you won't feel it as much. Also, if the team you were going to back gets scored on before you are matched, you will find the team you were going to back down a goal. This does not mean they are going to lose since a game is 90 minutes. It does mean that based on that handicap of a goal and the time left, you ask yourself the value of the situation. People will panic and overcompensate. You can either reduce your risk for the same profit or bet the same amount at higher odds than what was available at the kick-off. |
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By the way, if you don't get matched, don't chase at lower odds or kick yourself for not taking 1.60. Stick to what you consider value.
Keep a spreadsheet with the results. You will see the difference in the long term. |
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The Odds can hardly always be correct when prices are different every few hours , when nothing has changed about the competitors during that time.
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prices are different every few hours , when nothing has changed
But has nothing changed, or do others have team news that you don't? |
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prices are different every few hours , when nothing has changed
But the prices have changed, and they don't change without reason. Just because you don't know the reason, doesn't mean that there isn't a reason. |
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Um, it's an exchange so prices will change.
We all have access to the same information. It is how we interprete it. Some people will chase a headline. Some people will look for value. Some people will take any price. Some people will sit on the price they want till others reach for it. Conditions at the track will change from race 1 to race 6. Punters will read that and the odds adjust accordingly. Simplified but the factors are there. |
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The only odds which are correct is S/P ... starting price . why the nag maybe say 8/1 in the Sun 11/1 in the Racing Post 13/2 with Betfred .. but on course its 9/2 thats the price all bookies pay out at ....
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Why cause 90% of the money is put down 6 mins to post time ......
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Horse racing is a poor example for the original question...too much inside information...not everyone has access to the same info...
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we dont all have access to the same information though
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and the prices are not always correct - if they were then no-one would profit in the extreme long run
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Of course the odds are not always correct. There are no professional roulette players, but there are pro bettors who find the value.
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i take it you mean the markets are almost always nigh on 100% but you're not accounting for price movements whilst the markets still run at 100%
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