Correct score Dutching "value" challenge

Bet 2 Won = + £178.11 (after 5% commision)

Good to see the result with the highest edge (calculated) 0-1 was the winning choice

Start Balance = £1000

New Balance = £1128.11

well done

where do you get your stats from ? cheers

Thanks. Which stats?

I use excel to calculate the odds of the correct scores using poisson distribution (very basic)

Bet 3

Histon v Torquay

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 8.35% 12.58 11.5 No bet -4.02%
0-1 8.07% 13.01 15 Value 21.02%
0-2 3.90% 26.93 32 Value 24.79%
0-3 1.26% 83.56 95 Value 19.37%
1-0 12.66% 8.29 7.6 No bet -3.79%
1-1 12.24% 8.58 7.4 No bet -9.45%
1-2 5.91% 17.75 18.5 Value 9.42%
1-3 1.91% 55.10 60 Value 14.35%
2-0 9.60% 10.94 10 No bet -4.00%
2-1 9.28% 11.32 9.6 No bet -10.92%
2-2 4.49% 23.41 21 No bet -5.81%
2-3 1.45% 72.65 65 No bet -6.06%
3-0 4.85% 21.64 21 No bet 1.92%
3-1 4.69% 22.38 19 No bet -10.86%
3-2 2.27% 46.31 34 No bet -22.91%
3-3 0.73% 143.71 90 No bet -34.24%
Unq 6.11% 17.18 13 No bet -20.53%


£50 dutch oo

0-1
0-2
0-3
1-2
1-3


Returns £279.07 (inc stake, ex comm)

sorry how do you work it out with excell thanks

I am very much a novice at this. Search for poisson in google.

http://support.microsoft.com/kb/828130

thanks

Bet 3 lost = -£50

New balance = £1078.11

Start Bank = £1000

STP

How are you calculating the "mean" parameter that must be fed into the poission calculation? If it's simply the number of goals scored divided by the number of games, then I think you'll find this a little simplistic. Ideally you need to calculate the home team's attack figure, the away team's defence figure and the home team advantage value. This should then provide a more accurate mean figure.

At the minute (as i'm new to this) I am using three spread firms to calculate the mean goals for each team, until i more familiar with it.

Surely the spread firms will have done their homework and an average of the 3 should be pretty close.

Bet 4

M'boro v Man Utd

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 6.81% 15.42 13.5 No bet -8.05%
0-1 12.90% 8.14 7 No bet -9.73%
0-2 12.21% 8.60 7.8 No bet -4.78%
0-3 7.70% 13.63 15.5 Value 19.41%
1-0 5.40% 19.43 21 Value 13.47%
1-1 10.23% 10.26 8.6 No bet -12.02%
1-2 9.68% 10.84 9 No bet -12.84%
1-3 6.11% 17.18 17 No bet 3.90%
2-0 2.14% 48.99 50 Value 7.16%
2-1 4.06% 25.88 27 Value 9.56%
2-2 3.84% 27.33 23 No bet -11.65%
2-3 2.42% 43.31 32 No bet -22.42%
3-0 0.57% 185.26 230 Value 30.36%
3-1 1.07% 97.85 95 No bet 1.94%
3-2 1.02% 103.36 90 No bet -8.57%
3-3 0.64% 163.78 100 No bet -35.89%
Unq 8.70% 12.06 9.2 No bet -19.92%


Dutching;

0-3
1-0
2-0
2-1
3-0


£50 staked

Returns £288.15 (inc stake, ex commision)

unlucky mate

silly bet boro had no chance of winning that game

don't think you have grasped the point Vodka

whats that losing money

the point of the thread, you will realise some bets will lose but the original poster is trying to calculate value in his/her selections

Man Utd v Arsenal


score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 9.26% 11.89 9.6 No bet -11.15%
0-1 7.93% 13.87 16 Value 26.86%
0-2 3.40% 32.39 40 Value 35.84%
0-3 0.97% 113.43 120 Value 16.37%
1-0 14.10% 7.80 7 No bet -1.31% WON WITH BETTER EDGE THAN 2-0 OR 2-1
1-1 12.08% 9.11 8.6 No bet 3.87%
1-2 5.17% 21.26 22 Value 13.81%
1-3 1.48% 74.46 70 No bet 3.41%
2-0 10.74% 10.24 8.6 No bet -7.65%
2-1 9.20% 11.96 10 No bet -8.01%
2-2 3.94% 27.92 23 No bet -9.37%
2-3 1.13% 97.76 80 No bet -9.99%
3-0 5.45% 20.17 18.5 No bet 0.88%
3-1 4.67% 23.55 19 No bet -11.25%
3-2 2.00% 54.98 42 No bet -15.97%
3-3 0.57% 192.53 90 No bet -48.58%




Bet 2

Werder Bremen v Hamburg

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 6.18% 16.98 14.5 No bet -10.34%
0-1 6.49% 16.17 18 Value 16.86%
0-2 3.41% 30.81 32 Value 9.07%
0-3 1.19% 88.02 85 No bet 1.40%
1-0 10.72% 9.80 9.6 No bet 2.89% WON WITH BETTER EDGE OF TWO HOME WINS
1-1 11.25% 9.33 8.4 No bet -5.47%
1-2 5.91% 17.77 18 Value 6.34%
1-3 2.07% 50.78 55 Value 13.73%
2-0 9.29% 11.30 11 No bet 2.17%
2-1 9.75% 10.77 9 No bet -12.22%
2-2 5.12% 20.51 18 No bet -7.83%
2-3 1.79% 58.59 50 No bet -10.39%
3-0 5.37% 19.57 20 Value 7.33%
3-1 5.64% 18.63 18.5 No bet 4.25%
3-2 2.96% 35.49 30 No bet -11.25%
3-3 1.04% 101.41 70 No bet -27.52%








STP 01 May 11:48
Bet 3

Histon v Torquay REALLY OTHER WAY ROUND !!!

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 8.35% 12.58 11.5 No bet -4.02%
0-1 8.07% 13.01 15 Value 21.02%
0-2 3.90% 26.93 32 Value 24.79%
0-3 1.26% 83.56 95 Value 19.37%
1-0 12.66% 8.29 7.6 No bet -3.79% LOST
1-1 12.24% 8.58 7.4 No bet -9.45%
1-2 5.91% 17.75 18.5 Value 9.42%
1-3 1.91% 55.10 60 Value 14.35%
2-0 9.60% 10.94 10 No bet -4.00% RESULT
2-1 9.28% 11.32 9.6 No bet -10.92%
2-2 4.49% 23.41 21 No bet -5.81%
2-3 1.45% 72.65 65 No bet -6.06%
3-0 4.85% 21.64 21 No bet 1.92%
3-1 4.69% 22.38 19 No bet -10.86%
3-2 2.27% 46.31 34 No bet -22.91%
3-3 0.73% 143.71 90 No bet -34.24%
Unq 6.11% 17.18 13 No bet -20.53%


STP 02 May 09:39
Bet 4

M'boro v Man Utd

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 6.81% 15.42 13.5 No bet -8.05%
0-1 12.90% 8.14 7 No bet -9.73% LOST BUT WAS WORSE EDGE OF TWO bf ODDS
0-2 12.21% 8.60 7.8 No bet -4.78% RESULT WITH BETTER EDGE OF TWO
0-3 7.70% 13.63 15.5 Value 19.41%
1-0 5.40% 19.43 21 Value 13.47%
1-1 10.23% 10.26 8.6 No bet -12.02%
1-2 9.68% 10.84 9 No bet -12.84%
1-3 6.11% 17.18 17 No bet 3.90%
2-0 2.14% 48.99 50 Value 7.16%
2-1 4.06% 25.88 27 Value 9.56%
2-2 3.84% 27.33 23 No bet -11.65%
2-3 2.42% 43.31 32 No bet -22.42%
3-0 0.57% 185.26 230 Value 30.36%
3-1 1.07% 97.85 95 No bet 1.94%
3-2 1.02% 103.36 90 No bet -8.57%
3-3 0.64% 163.78 100 No bet -35.89%
Unq 8.70% 12.06 9.2 No bet -19.92%

=================================================

Perhaps -

1. make a decision on what team wins...then

2. go by lowest two BF odds on that team winning, then chose one of two that has best edge .

Just a suggeston...................don't dutch em though ...just 1 selection.

In effect why not use the BF market odds as an indicator of likely two possible results......then apply your edge?????

Bet 4 - Lost

New Bank = £1028.11

P/L = +£28.11

25% strike rate


Thanks for your comments. Good ideas there DCF , think i may take your ideas and give it a go on, see how i get on , after all its only a virtual bank

Change of plan now, taking on board the comments above from DFC,

Bet 4

Real v Barca

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 3.68% 27.20 17 No bet -37.51%
0-1 6.04% 16.55 15.5 No bet -6.37%
0-2 4.96% 20.15 20 No bet -0.73%
0-3 2.72% 36.78 36 No bet -2.12%
1-0 6.10% 16.39 15 No bet -8.47%
1-1 10.03% 9.97 7.8 No bet -21.78% Favourite, 2nd best edge
1-2 8.24% 12.14 11.5 No bet -5.24%
1-3 4.51% 22.16 24 Value 8.32%
2-0 5.06% 19.74 22 Value 11.43%
2-1 8.32% 12.01 11 No bet -8.44% 2nd fav, Best edge. Bet £50
2-2 6.84% 14.62 18 Value 23.10%
2-3 3.75% 26.69 30 Value 12.39%
3-0 2.80% 35.68 38 Value 6.50%
3-1 4.61% 21.71 24 Value 10.53%
3-2 3.78% 26.43 30 Value 13.53%
3-3 2.07% 48.24 55 Value 14.01%
Unq 11.22% 8.91 6.8 No bet -23.70%


£50 staked on 2-1 @ odds 11.0

Real v Barca

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 3.68% 27.20 17 No bet -37.51%
0-1 6.04% 16.55 15.5 No bet -6.37%
0-2 4.96% 20.15 20 No bet -0.73%
0-3 2.72% 36.78 36 No bet -2.12%
1-0 6.10% 16.39 15 No bet -8.47%
1-1 10.03% 9.97 7.8 No bet -21.78% Favourite, 2nd best edge
1-2 8.24% 12.14 11.5 No bet -5.24%
1-3 4.51% 22.16 24 Value 8.32%
2-0 5.06% 19.74 22 Value 11.43%
2-1 8.32% 12.01 11 No bet -8.44% 2nd fav, Best edge. Bet £50
2-2 6.84% 14.62 18 Value 23.10%
2-3 3.75% 26.69 30 Value 12.39%
3-0 2.80% 35.68 38 Value 6.50%
3-1 4.61% 21.71 24 Value 10.53%
3-2 3.78% 26.43 30 Value 13.53%
3-3 2.07% 48.24 55 Value 14.01%
Unq 11.22% 8.91 6.8 No bet -23.70%

If you take the view that BARCA might well steal this match ....then 1-2 might be score using the edge.

Hope you are right for the virtual bank sake :D :D

GL

Sorry got that wrong ..should read

Real v Barca

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 3.68% 27.20 17 No bet -37.51%
0-1 6.04% 16.55 15.5 No bet -6.37%
0-2 4.96% 20.15 20 No bet -0.73%
0-3 2.72% 36.78 36 No bet -2.12%
1-0 6.10% 16.39 15 No bet -8.47%
1-1 10.03% 9.97 7.8 No bet -21.78% Favourite, 2nd best edge
1-2 8.24% 12.14 11.5 No bet -5.24%
1-3 4.51% 22.16 24 Value 8.32%
2-0 5.06% 19.74 22 Value 11.43%
2-1 8.32% 12.01 11 No bet -8.44% 2nd fav, Best edge. Bet £50
2-2 6.84% 14.62 18 Value 23.10%
2-3 3.75% 26.69 30 Value 12.39%
3-0 2.80% 35.68 38 Value 6.50%
3-1 4.61% 21.71 24 Value 10.53%
3-2 3.78% 26.43 30 Value 13.53%
3-3 2.07% 48.24 55 Value 14.01%
Unq 11.22% 8.91 6.8 No bet -23.70%

If you take the view that BARCA might well steal this match ....then 0-2 might be score using the edge.

Hope you are right for the virtual bank sake :D :D

Sorry ...my eyes are not reading BF odds properly !!!!

My first guess is the likely one !!!!

Goals have come a bit early !!! Might tighten up a bit now though ...so 1-2 or 2-1 still on

All happening ...some game ...pace tremendous.....

Good job my other tip on a another thread come in,

STP 02 May 19:05
Real v Barca

Over 2.5 @1.72

Real
7 games since a draw
18 games since a loss
20 out of 33 games scoring 2 or more goals
10 games since a home loss
11 out of 17 games scoring 2 or more home goals

Barca

8 games since a loss
26 out of 33 games scoring 2 or more goals
Only 6 games conceding 2 or more goals
4 games since an away loss
12 out of 16 games scoring 2 or more away goals
Only 4 games conceding 2 or more away goals


Just noticed already kicked off oops

wd STP.............just one of those fast start games ....and the derby element coming into it ...makes it tough re what might happen..........

cheers. Think I'll go back to my original plan..Dutching. Doubt the scoreline will stay the same but if it does, would have been one of my dutching selections.
Noticed all but 1 of the value bets are overs 2.5
For the sake of the original plan and because i have made a bet outside it, i am going to continue with that £50 loss and treat it as i lesson in discipline , stick to your original plan to see where it goes. I will watch with interest your idea DFC,

What a game by the way

New bank £978.11

You are quite right to stick to your plan........a very good thread ...GL

BTW ......I would use going all green once a sore has been hit ...if doing what i suggested earlier .....so when 1-2 was hit ...i would then lay bet etc ...

BTW ......I would use going all green once a score has been hit ...if doing what i suggested earlier .....so when 1-2 was hit ...i would then lay bet etc ...

Do you always trade out, I was wondering how prices may change throughout game and if i may have opportunity to green up on scorelines i have dutched

It would all depend on how game goes.......when 1-2 early in a match ...and both teams going for it ...YUP would get out of 1 bet quickly!

If late in a match and the 1-2 hit , then odds would be very low then ...so again i would trade out ....many would not.......but see no point in losin all stakes if another goal scored late in match etc.

My football betting is poor r staing generally....Ican do well on guessing how a game might go ....for say 4 games in a row ...winning on every game ...then blow all profit on one daft over staked bet ....ending up losing when have 4 out of 5 correct!!!!

Worth keeping eye on TOTGA thread ....as some very good "guessing" going on there!!!!

I like your idea re finding value ....but would rather use that combined with my opinion on how a game might go...like with BARCA game I thought they would either win or draw ...more likely win.....but thought it would be a low scoring match !!!! :D

GL with thread....

Thanks for your input , next bet coming up

Bet 5

Villarreal v sevilla

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 5.50% 18.17 14.5 No bet -20.22%
0-1 7.52% 13.30 12.5 No bet -6.00%
0-2 5.14% 19.46 19.5 Value 0.20%
0-3 2.34% 42.72 44 Value 3.00%
1-0 8.44% 11.85 11 No bet -7.19%
1-1 11.53% 8.67 7.8 No bet -10.06%
1-2 7.88% 12.69 11.5 No bet -9.39%
1-3 3.59% 27.86 27 No bet -3.09%
2-0 6.47% 15.46 17 Value 9.96%
2-1 8.84% 11.31 10.5 No bet -7.18%
2-2 6.04% 16.55 17 Value 2.69%
2-3 2.75% 36.34 38 Value 4.57%
3-0 3.31% 30.25 34 Value 12.40%
3-1 4.52% 22.13 25 Value 12.96%
3-2 3.09% 32.39 28 No bet -13.55%
3-3 1.41% 71.10 55 No bet -22.64%
Unq 8.35% 11.97 9 No bet -24.82%


£50 dutching ;

0-2
0-3
2-0
2-2
2-3
3-0
3-1


Returns £173.98 (inc stake, ex comm)

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS :D :D


I'd lay to protect stakes now

wd STP

Bet 5 won +£117.78 (after 5% comm)

New Bank = £1095.95

P/L = +£95.95

Bet 6

Reading V Birmingham

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 8.32% 12.02 11.5 No bet -4.34%
0-1 8.82% 11.34 12.5 Value 10.22%
0-2 4.67% 21.40 25 Value 16.84%
0-3 1.65% 60.56 80 Value 32.10%
1-0 11.87% 8.43 8 No bet -5.06%
1-1 12.58% 7.95 7.2 No bet -9.42%
1-2 6.67% 15.00 15.5 Value 3.35%
1-3 2.36% 42.45 44 Value 3.66%
2-0 8.47% 11.81 11.5 No bet -2.64%
2-1 8.97% 11.14 10 No bet -10.26%
2-2 4.76% 21.03 18.5 No bet -12.01%
2-3 1.68% 59.51 55 No bet -7.57%
3-0 4.03% 24.84 25 Value 0.65%
3-1 4.27% 23.43 22 No bet -6.11%
3-2 2.26% 44.21 36 No bet -18.58%
3-3 0.80% 125.13 85 No bet -32.07%
Unq 5.84% 17.11 14.5 No bet -15.26%

Over 2.5 43.28% 2.31 2.16 No bet
Under 2.5 54.72% 1.83 1.83 Value


£50 dutch on;

0-1
0-2
0-3
1-2
1-3
3-0


Returns £192.50 (inc stake, ex comm)

1 MORE BIRMINGHAM

Bet 6 Won +£135.38 (after 5% comm)

New Bank = £1231.33

-£50
£178.11
-£50
-£50 changed rules on bet
£117.78 Back to original rules
£135.38

well done

Bet 7

Sunderland v Everton


score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 8.77% 11.40 9.2 No bet -19.28%
0-1 10.53% 9.50 8.4 No bet -11.55%
0-2 6.32% 15.83 14.5 No bet -8.40%
0-3 2.53% 39.57 40 Value 1.08%
1-0 10.82% 9.24 8.6 No bet -6.93%
1-1 12.99% 7.70 7.2 No bet -6.50%
1-2 7.79% 12.83 13 Value 1.29%
1-3 3.12% 32.09 32 No bet -0.27%
2-0 6.67% 14.98 16 Value 6.77%
2-1 8.01% 12.49 13.5 Value 8.11%
2-2 4.80% 20.81 21 Value 0.90%
2-3 1.92% 52.03 48 No bet -7.75%
3-0 2.74% 36.45 55 Value 50.89%
3-1 3.29% 30.37 36 Value 18.52%
3-2 1.98% 50.62 48 No bet -5.18%
3-3 0.79% 126.56 110 No bet -13.09%
Unq 5.29% 18.89 18.5 No bet -2.07%

Over 2.5 42.26% 2.50 2.16 No bet
Under 2.5 56.10% 1.65 1.83 Value


Dutching £50 on;

0-3
1-2
2-0
2-1
2-2
3-0
3-1


Returns £173.32 (inc stake, ex comm)

Could well be a draw this one......and 2-2 looks good.

wd on last winner........going well

2-2 now doubtful ...but draw still looks likely ...EVERTON more interested in FA Cup final ....and S just struggling to create any chances to score.

If one team scores, then might still be a draw ...1-1.....hope I'm wrong again and a couple goals go in for home team.

One more goal for either would be good now, consolidation goal maybe

Fingers crossed ....I got this one well wrong ....happens ....SUNDERLAND lacked fight early on....and left it too late ...they had to go behind before effort in match ...not good enough.

Come on the goal !!!!!

You should lay off IMO if a goal to protect stakes....

consolation* maybe lol

Away to cut grass ..the lawn type :D

Gl with goal

Cheers the noooooooooooo

close....but

Bet 7 Lost -£50

New Bank = £1181.33

P/L = +£181.33

Bet 8

Betis v Atletico

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 4.50% 22.20 19 No bet -14.41%
0-1 7.13% 14.02 13.5 No bet -3.71%
0-2 5.65% 17.71 18 Value 1.64%
0-3 2.98% 33.55 32 No bet -4.63%
1-0 6.83% 14.64 14 No bet -4.35%
1-1 10.82% 9.24 8 No bet -13.46%
1-2 8.56% 11.68 11 No bet -5.79%
1-3 4.52% 22.12 22 No bet -0.56%
2-0 5.18% 19.30 22 Value 13.99%
2-1 8.20% 12.19 11.5 No bet -5.66%
2-2 6.49% 15.40 16 Value 3.91%
2-3 3.43% 29.17 30 Value 2.83%
3-0 2.62% 38.18 46 Value 20.49%
3-1 4.15% 24.11 29 Value 20.28%
3-2 3.28% 30.46 30 No bet -1.50%
3-3 1.73% 57.71 55 No bet -4.69%
Unq 9.74% 10.27 7.8 No bet -24.03%

Over 2.5 55.71% 2.50 1.71 No bet
Under 2.5 40.12% 1.65 2.38 Value


£50 dutch on ;

0-2
2-0
2-2
2-3
3-0
3-1


returns £197.58 inc stake, ex comm)



unders also looks good if i was a betting man

Really interesting thread STP; good luck!

0-2
very nice thread you got here going ,following with interest
:D

Can see this being a well read thread ...wd :D

Bet 8 won +£140.20 (after 5% comm)

new bank = £1321.53

p/l = +£321.53


-£50
£178.11
-£50
-£50 changed rules on bet
£117.78 Back to original rules
£135.38
£140.21


Thanks for the comments, didn't expext it to go so well at start, usually start a thread and it falls flat (still time), early days. But taking a different approach and doing something i've never done before

Good luck all

excellent, well done :D

http://www.ylikerroin.com/file/Complete.pdf

not a bad read for those interested

Had a quick read ....and head hurts !!!!!! Never did like statistics though..............but accept the relevance in helping to find the value bet......

You are doing well ....but of course you are having 6/7 bets on each match......so fair chance you will hit correct results often.

If you could incorporate being good at guessing which team might win, or whether a draw likely result etc ....then you could cut down number of bets on a match and get higher returns through being "good" on appraising matches etc etc

Though with football betting you will get odd results frequently.....eg 2-6 BARCA v REAL MADRID....4-4 in LIVERPOOL matches etc..................

Your approach is far better than some who covered the same CSs on every match ...no matter who was playing or the circumstances etc etc......................!!!!

Anyway ....away to watch racing.....gotta keep up to date on how they are going .

Cheers just now.

Something that flashed through mind as well ....as you are also now posting the value in odds on whether a game is a value bet on OVER 2.5 goals or not.......can you not use that indicator and restrict number of bets ....eg if UNDER 2.5 is the value ...don't bacj scores over 2.5 goals ????

Just a thought........though whilst you are still in early stages of the thread, you are best to stick to testing the current strategy until you feel you are at a stage where you tweak what you do.

I'll leave you in peace for a few days and watch with interest . GL

sorry im a bit clueless with excell how
do you put the progamme in excell.thanks

apologies, i finding it hard to explain how i put my excel spread sheet together as its new to me. I just searched google for some examples and changed it to my needs. Poisson can be found in the Insert-function-stat menu..sorry i can not be of more help, if i find a better way of explaining it i will post it here asap

Bet 9

Villa v Hull

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 5.69% 17.58 14.5 No bet -17.51%
0-1 5.03% 19.90 22 Value 10.55%
0-2 2.22% 45.06 50 Value 10.97%
0-3 0.65% 153.02 180 Value 17.63%
1-0 11.28% 8.86 8.4 No bet -5.22%
1-1 9.97% 10.03 9.2 No bet -8.31%
1-2 4.40% 22.72 26 Value 14.45%
1-3 1.30% 77.15 90 Value 16.65%
2-0 11.19% 8.94 8.8 No bet -1.54%
2-1 9.88% 10.12 9 No bet -11.05%
2-2 4.37% 22.91 21 No bet -8.33%
2-3 1.29% 77.80 80 Value 2.82%
3-0 7.40% 13.52 13.5 No bet -0.14%
3-1 6.53% 15.30 14.5 No bet -5.26%
3-2 2.89% 34.65 32 No bet -7.65%
3-3 0.85% 117.68 85 No bet -27.77%
Unq 9.75% 10.25 7.4 No bet -27.81%

Over 2.5 49.31% 2.03 1.86 No bet
Under 2.5 45.37% 2.20 2.14 No bet


Dutching £50 on;

0-1
0-2
0-3
1-2
1-3
2-3


Returns £375.71 (inc stake, ex comm)


One to watch = Laying UQ appers to be good value


Some facts

Aston Villa
9 games since a win
6 games since a home win
Only 5 home clean sheets this season

Hull
6 games since a win
Only 6 clean sheets this season
4 games since an away draw
Only 4 away clean sheets this season

Good luck all

I suspect the value bets will lose on this one ........................on dutched bets above.

Just find it hard to see HULL outpacing AV sufficient number of times to win this match....and Av will be up for this.

The lay on AUQ looks the bet based on the values ....GL

Bet 9 lost -£50

New Bank = £1271.53

p/l = +£271.53

thanks for you help

good luck with the next bet

STP

Apologies, I missed your original question about obtaining a copy of "Dixon, M. J. and Coles, S. G. (1997) Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market". If you want a copy I can send it to you. Just post your email.

pinkney9@h0tmail.c0m

Thanks in advance

Okay, I've sent it now. 809k

Bet 10


Arsenal v Man Utd

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 7.68% 13.02 10.5 No bet -19.37%
0-1 9.85% 10.15 9.6 No bet -5.39%
0-2 6.32% 15.81 16.5 Value 4.34%
0-3 2.71% 36.97 42 Value 13.61%
1-0 9.85% 10.15 9.4 No bet -7.36%
1-1 12.65% 7.91 7.6 No bet -3.88%
1-2 8.12% 12.32 12.5 Value 1.44%
1-3 3.47% 28.81 29 Value 0.67%
2-0 6.32% 15.81 17.5 Value 10.66%
2-1 8.12% 12.32 12.5 Value 1.44%
2-2 5.21% 19.20 20 Value 4.15%
2-3 2.23% 44.89 40 No bet -10.90%
3-0 2.71% 36.97 42 Value 13.61%
3-1 3.47% 28.81 26 No bet -9.74%
3-2 2.23% 44.89 44 No bet -1.99%
3-3 0.95% 104.94 80 No bet -23.77%
Unq 6.10% 16.39 13 No bet -20.67%

Over 2.5 45.30% 2.21 2.28 Value
Under 2.5 52.68% 1.90 1.77 No bet


£50 dutched on ;

0-2
0-3
1-2
1-3
2-0
2-1
2-2
3-0

Returns £122 (inc stake, ex comm)

Bet 10 won +£68.40 (after 5% comm)

New Bank = £1339.93

p/l = +£339.93

Well Done STP. Very good thread.

Thanks, made error in bet numbers. That was actually bet 11.

P/L so far

-£50
£178.11
-£50
-£50
-£50
£117.78
£135.38
-£50
£140.21
-£50
£68.40


5 bets won out of 11 = 45.45% strike rate

Bet 12

Preston v Sheff Utd

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 11.23% 8.91 9.8 Value 10.04%
0-1 10.41% 9.61 9.8 Value 1.97%
0-2 4.82% 20.74 19.5 No bet -5.99%
0-3 1.49% 67.15 50 No bet -25.54%
1-0 14.15% 7.07 8 Value 13.19%
1-1 13.11% 7.63 7.2 No bet -5.60%
1-2 6.07% 16.46 13.5 No bet -17.99%
1-3 1.88% 53.29 38 No bet -28.70%
2-0 8.91% 11.22 13.5 Value 20.33%
2-1 8.26% 12.11 11 No bet -9.14%
2-2 3.83% 26.13 19.5 No bet -25.37%
2-3 1.18% 84.59 55 No bet -34.98%
3-0 3.74% 26.71 36 Value 34.77%
3-1 3.47% 28.83 28 No bet -2.86%
3-2 1.61% 62.21 42 No bet -32.49%
3-3 0.50% 201.41 110 No bet -45.38%
Unq 4.14% 24.16 18 No bet -25.49%

Over 2.5 36.17% 2.77 2.46 No bet
Under 2.5 62.63% 1.60 1.67 Value

Home 40.14% 2.49
Draw 28.66% 3.49
Away 25.85% 3.87



£50 Dutch on;

0-0
1-0
0-1
2-0
3-0


Returns £116.03 (inc stake, ex comm)


One to watch = Under 2.5 @ 1.67

Just got this to the top as i will continuing with it very soon

last bet lost (one to watch won)

summary:

Bet 1. -£50
Bet 2. £178.11
Bet 3, -£50
Bet 4. -£50
Bet 5. -£50
Bet 6. £117.78
Bet 7. £135.38
Bet 8. -£50
Bet 9. £140.21
Bet 10. -£50
Bet 11. £68.40
Bet 12. -£50


Start Balance = £1000
Current Balance = £1289.88

Profit = +£289.88

Strike Rate = 41.66%

Very interesting thread STP - good luck with it.

Bet 13

USA v Brazil

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 6.72% 14.88 13.5 No bet -9.27%
0-1 14.00% 7.14 7.4 Value 3.61%
0-2 14.58% 6.86 6.6 No bet -3.74%
0-3 10.13% 9.87 10.5 Value 6.35%
1-0 4.14% 24.13 22 No bet -8.82%
1-1 8.63% 11.58 11.5 No bet -0.71%
1-2 8.99% 11.12 10 No bet -10.06%
1-3 6.25% 16.01 15.5 No bet -3.19%
2-0 1.28% 78.26 70 No bet -10.55%
2-1 2.66% 37.56 36 No bet -4.16%
2-2 2.77% 36.06 38 Value 5.38%
2-3 1.93% 51.93 40 No bet -22.97%
3-0 0.26% 380.71 180 No bet -52.72%
3-1 0.55% 182.74 120 No bet -34.33%
3-2 0.57% 175.43 110 No bet -37.30%
3-3 0.40% 252.62 130 No bet -48.54%
Unq 10.04% 9.96 6.4 No bet -35.73%

Over 2.5 44.55% 2.24 1.99 No bet
Under 2.5 49.36% 2.03 2 No bet

Home 9.46% 10.57
Draw 18.52% 5.40
Away 55.88% 1.79



£50 dutch on ;

0-1
0-3
2-2


Returns £198.13 (inc stake, ex comm)

Interesting system! Been following this thread for a while. I've been considering laying AU since odds dropped below 7.00. And your post above has pretty much convinced me :D So if it goes breasts up, I can blame you ;)

;-) lol. good luck

I often use the poor value prices i have calculated to decide on what to lay, has worked well for me, hopefully will pay for you too

Good Luck

Bet 13 lost -£50

close game that one , thought the 2-2 was on. Well done to those on the unqouted

Bet 1. -£50
Bet 2. £178.11
Bet 3, -£50
Bet 4. -£50
Bet 5. -£50
Bet 6. £117.78
Bet 7. £135.38
Bet 8. -£50
Bet 9. £140.21
Bet 10. -£50
Bet 11. £68.40
Bet 12. -£50
Bet 13. -£50


Start Balance = £1000
Current Balance = £1239.88

Profit = +£239.88

Strike Rate = 38.46%

From now on i am going to trial having a saver bet on one of the other outcomes to cover the initial dutch stake (it will be a lay)

Bet 14

Lillestrom v Start - 18:35

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 4.98% 20.09 15 No bet -25.32% (saver lay)
0-1 6.97% 14.35 14 No bet -2.42%
0-2 4.88% 20.50 22 Value 7.34%
0-3 2.28% 43.92 46 Value 4.74%
1-0 7.97% 12.55 12 No bet -4.41%
1-1 11.15% 8.97 7.8 No bet -13.01%
1-2 7.81% 12.81 12 No bet -6.32%
1-3 3.64% 27.45 29 Value 5.65%
2-0 6.37% 15.69 16.5 Value 5.15%
2-1 8.92% 11.21 10 No bet -10.78%
2-2 6.25% 16.01 15 No bet -6.32%
2-3 2.91% 34.31 34 No bet -0.91%
3-0 3.40% 29.42 32 Value 8.76%
3-1 4.76% 21.02 22 Value 4.68%
3-2 3.33% 30.02 29 No bet -3.41%
3-3 1.55% 64.33 50 No bet -22.28%
Unq 9.07% 11.02 9.2 No bet -16.55%

Over 2.5 53.92% 1.85 1.99 Value
Under 2.5 42.32% 2.36 2 No bet

Home 34.75% 2.88
Draw 23.93% 4.18
Away 28.49% 3.51


£50 dutch on:

0-2
0-3
1-3
2-0
3-0
3-1


Returns £209.22 (inc stake, ex comm)


Saver Bet 1

£52.63 Lay 0-0 @ 15 (exposure = £736.82)

STP - How can laying 0-0 be a "saver" bet ??????????


If it finishes 0-0 you lose on BOTH strategies !!!!!!!


Why not make the "saver" bet be .....when say you have reached a CS BACK score, and if another goal is scored you lose etc .....then why not LAY to protect stakes some of profit off?????

GL ........Like what you are doing SO FAR ]:) :D

Suppose the term 'saver' is the wrong word, its a lay (generally the one with the smallest edge), a scoreline that i don't believe will happen to ensure i come out level if the dutch bet fails.

obviously if 0-0 in this case, i stand to lose a heft amount

Nice to see the 0-0 odds drifting from the odds = 15.00 earlier

Just feel that you have got two strategies based on goals in this game .........and IF 0-0 happens ....it willl be very very expensive.

If you really believe there will be goals in game....why not lay DRAW in HT market at far lower level of liability.....and IF a goal is scored then means your other bets have good chance of happening , BUT you can also lay whatever team that goes ahead to eliminate liability on a DRAW being score at HT etc.............

Anyway ....., based on what market "thinks" , .....0-0 is unlikely ........though markets often are wrong IMO.......especially when RELEGATION matches are being playedetc

GL

WD on lay 0-0 STP....:D

cheers, just need few more goals for bet (a) to come in. Bring on the goals

:D

Maybe worth laying some of profit off on 2-0 ??????? Fair chance away team score here.......

The market appears to think another goal likely by looks of it!!!!

Fingers crossed goes to 3-1

:D

I'll hold out for 3-1 lol, nothing to lose all to gain ;-)

nice to see the value bet of, over 2.5 come in @ 1.99

Brave decision ...as both teams appear to be coming to life!!!!!!

When odds get lower STP .....I'd definitely lay off to ensure a profit ........say at 2.1????

Didn't trade out,but didn't take a loss as the lay of 0-0 won

Bet 14a -£50
Bet 14b +£50

overall = same (no loss)


Think i will look at the possibility of trading out and the maths behind it to secure a profit. May work well as the scorelines i take tend to happen at some point in match

Feel you were "brave" to lay 0-0 ........then not so brave on not laying 2-0 a wee bit .......as I know you had 3-0 and 3-1 covered ,,,,,,but 2-1 could well still happen ...and it did......as well as 2-2 etc.....

Laying 2-0 a wee bit ....would have secured a profit no matter what ......when got back to 3-1 .......then laying the largish profit again ...a wee bit ....would have secured even more profit in a game which could easily have gone to 2-2, and all profit chances would be gone etc.


The market odds at 2-0 and 2-1 ....seemed to indicate goals ....and perhaps this is when worth going all green.

Even if you do it in stages ....eg laying 25% profit off at 2.1 ....when it was 3-1.....then set another lay at 1.6 for another 25% or so etc etc.......

Although you broke-even....................it is important to remember you were RISKING a substantial amount of money at start .............and breaking even is not so good really IMO........

GOALS do happen when you don't want them ....and don't happen sometimes when you do.......

You did really well with the DUTCHED scores chosen......and there were TWO opportunities to lay to gain some profit.........and surely worth laying at least once when a CS is arrived at ........

All depends on whether you just let bets stand ( I remember watching kenilworth lose out OFTEN through IMO making wrong judgment calls on how games might go....meaning ...MORE GOALS....and some can leave you with a loss instead of profit.........he of course was "happy" to end up in profit .......but i am certain it would have been far more had he made better judgment
calls on whether more goals likely etc ....IMO he exercised BAD judgment in most of matches by refusing to cover DRAW possibilities and also late goals.......his strategy was far more crude than your one .....you are going for value .....he was just doing same dutched scores NO MATTER what match was !!!!!) or whether you make a judgment call on how a game is going etc....or could go......


Very good thread though STP ....your still in profit ...so wd

STP - which 3 spread companies do you use?

sportingindex
extrabet
spreadex

Use those 3, if anyone knows of more please post them, would like to use them into spreadsheet. cheers

DFC Can i just Ask Y u Highlight certain parts of ur posts ? lol
does it not take u too much time
(not sayin in bad way)

cheers STP

AC Milan v Genoa

score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 6.18% 16.17 14 No bet -13.44%
0-1 5.36% 18.66 21 Value 12.53%
0-2 2.32% 43.06 55 Value 27.72%
0-3 0.67% 149.07 180 Value 20.75%
1-0 11.85% 8.44 7.8 No bet -7.56%
1-1 10.27% 9.74 8.8 No bet -9.62%
1-2 4.45% 22.47 24 Value 6.82%
1-3 1.29% 77.77 80 Value 2.86%
2-0 11.36% 8.80 8.8 No bet -0.06%
2-1 9.84% 10.16 9.2 No bet -9.44%
2-2 4.27% 23.44 20 No bet -14.69%
2-3 1.23% 81.16 80 No bet -1.42%
3-0 7.26% 13.78 14.5 Value 5.21%
3-1 6.29% 15.90 15 No bet -5.67%
3-2 2.73% 36.70 32 No bet -12.80%
3-3 0.79% 127.03 95 No bet -25.21%
Unq 9.12% 10.97 8.2 No bet -25.25%

Over 2.5 47.92% 2.09 2.04 No bet
Under 2.5 47.34% 2.11 1.94 No bet

Home 49.32% 2.03 1.64 No Bet
Draw 21.51% 4.65 4.1 No Bet
Away 15.32% 6.53 6.6 Value