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I've no idea what your point is contrarian. My point is you'll get a lot more of your profitable bets matched than you will of your unprofitable bets matched as many of them will be cancelled before taken.
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Do you really think I'm saying you'll never have a losing bet?
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As I said (twice), if it were that easy, everyone (including you!) would be doing it.
Read some of the threads on the pc. Some of these people are incredibly thick. Believe me, I've more to do with my tiime. |
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Feck - you are absolutely correct about the existence of the MM advantage, but you have the extent completely wrong. The advantage gained from the buttons matched mid point by the unfortunate X and Y souls can easily be outweighed by the shrewd match reader steaming in pre point. Ultimately, a tennis MM has to be correct on price or is doomed.
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Feck,
"You've then got 8 secs (or whatever the bet placement delay is) to cancel" Is it possible to cancel one's bet during those 8 secs? I have thought that it is possible only AFTER that (if it was not instantly matched), and also then it is difficult to cancel only one of one´s bets. Do you have a bot which helps in these situations? |
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Correct Blue Eyes but working out odds for a tennis game given the latest score can't be hard.
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Is it possible to cancel one's bet during those 8 secs? I have thought that it is possible only AFTER that (if it was not instantly matched), and also then it is difficult to cancel only one of one´s bets.
Edison, you can't cancel during the countdown, that's the point. Those utilising the market maker advantage get their bets up between points so that nothing's happening while they're stuck behind the clock. It's the fools who try to match their bets during play that are the fall guys. They'll be stuck behind the clock while the guy that went through the countdown during the neutral period can now cancel his offer instantly. Do you have a bot which helps in these situations? They will have yes. It will be a simple case of clicking one of two buttons to inform the bot which offers to cancel and which to leave up. |
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Correct Blue Eyes but working out odds for a tennis game given the latest score can't be hard.
Working out the odds pre-off in racing "can't be hard" |
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Sports odds compilers are the sh1te under the shoes of horse racing odds compilers (NAP). Tennis game betting = wee diddy odds compiling.
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Most of you will just be playing follow the leader anyway.
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Ok, I think we're getting to the root of it now.
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The only sport worthy of betting is the one that isn't really a sport at all.
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Feck , I usually don't insult people on this forum , but to me you are coming more and more forward as a nut case. Strange really , because you also seem to be a intelligent person , but as they say - There is only a thin line between genius and insanity.
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No. The harder it is to work out the odds, the more value there will be. I'm talking about legit gambling here, not interface cluedo which is where most are making their money.
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But it's only harder cos it's more** surely?
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beware of mom...he hates special needs schools and talks only about c ocks
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No worries Ed, although I fail to see what I've done to deserve that. Have I exposed your edge or do you feel I'm not giving these people the respect they deserve? As far as I'm concerned I've went to considerable lengths to do those not in the know a favour with my latest block of posts. If you don't like it then up yours.
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I've got to call it the way I see it.
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I doubt you're that kind of guy Ed.
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What kind of guy do you mean ?
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The big players don't pay the PC. Only the low commission payers do that.
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kenilworth , as usual you don't have a clue , but still speaks as if you know everything.
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The kind of guy who calls it the way he sees it.
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But it's only harder cos it's more** surely?
That makes it harder in a bad way but even if it was straight you would have fierce variations between compilers. Such variations are rare in any sports for which there are plenty of stats available. |
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Good night all. The nurse has come to put me to bed.
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LOL Feck
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Great entertainment as ever.
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Eddie, what bit have I got wrong ?
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Both your sentences are incorrect.
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If you bet big/ biggish & win regularly you will rarely pay the PC as your profit will be over 20%
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conchords 04 Jan 22:29
If you bet big/ biggish & win regularly you will rarely pay the PC as your profit will be over 20% That doesn't make sense , can you please explain what you mean ? |
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If you bet big, unless you're stupid/rich, you're a regular winner. If you back in the traditional sense to any degree of profit then the commission paid will invariably be over 20%. Mine is currently just under 39% & has never dipped below 30%. Don't forget its based on profit not winnings.
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OK , you are obviously doing very well , but why do you assume that others can't be doing even better ?
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Eddie, what is your commission percentage / winnings ?
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conchords 04 Jan 22:44
If you bet big, unless you're stupid/rich, you're a regular winner. There's buckets of those that you refer to on here though. How do you think the skimmers, traders, and winners all survive, with betfair taking a huge cut? Its not just from minnows. IMO over 50% of profits to the shrewd comes from big stupid/rich players. If you back in the traditional sense to any degree of profit then the commission paid will invariably be over 20%. Mine is currently just under 39% & has never dipped below 30%. Don't forget its based on profit not winnings. Absolute rubbish. All you need is a 5% ROI (or indeed under the old system a 5% ROI over a comparatively short period, 60 weeks). I was at 20.09% after an good run before I figured a way to crack the charge, and I'm a traditional backer and a 2% player. Justify what you say above. I know traditional backers who play big (big enough to be on the lowest rate of commission) and they pay PC. If you said "no-one who backs in the sorts of volume that HF does" or something, i'd take your point. One man's big player is another mans small fish, for sure. But on its own, your post is nonsensical. |
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kenilworth , I had a very good year last year and have therefore increased stakes heavily.
I've been on 2 % commission or for roughly the last 6 months. Because of the generated commission thing , I don't know exactly how much I paid in commission last year but I'm estimating the normal commission I paid last year to be something like 50 - 55 k. Sadly that isn't enough for Betfair so I've had to pay an additional 117 k in PC. |
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blimey
if you are paying that you are making big £ depends on your angle and markets you are on/manipulating but anyway surely you would be better off asking betfair do they want £117k pc charge or normal comm or nothing at all try withdrawing all your funds and then asking for all your account details to be deleted username card details forum name user name etc etc and then wait one month and reapply but ask for 'special comm ' rates |
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[i]
Feck N. Eejit 04 Jan 18:47 Almost everyone regularly paying it are indulging in parasitic activities. If they are big they are almost certainly indulging in parasitic activities. Is this guesswork, or do you have evidence to back this up? In 2009 I paid PC in 36 weeks. Inside information: none (I don't research football games) Speed advantages: none (don't watch most of the games) Although I do 'gamble' most of what I do involves trading when prices are out of line. 99% of my bets are on football. I'm not sure what you mean by 'big' and 'regularly' though. But I would think 36 out of 52 is pretty regular. "Take away that information, speed advantages and insider information and there would be no need for a premium charge." I don't think it's so much a question of a 'need', simply a way for Betfair to make more money. I would like to see a more honest and open approach from Betfair regarding PC and cross matching. Rather than coming up with statements like "we are improving the way unmatched bets are displayed", they should actually be open with what they're really doing. |
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Oops, mistake with the italics there :D
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Feck N. Eejit 04 Jan 18:47
Almost everyone regularly paying it are indulging in parasitic activities. If they are big they are almost certainly indulging in parasitic activities. Is this guesswork, or do you have evidence to back this up? In 2009 I paid PC in 36 weeks. Inside information: none (I don't research football games) Speed advantages: none (don't watch most of the games) Although I do 'gamble' most of what I do involves trading when prices are out of line. 99% of my bets are on football. I'm not sure what you mean by 'big' and 'regularly' though. But I would think 36 out of 52 is pretty regular. Take away that information, speed advantages and insider information and there would be no need for a premium charge. I don't think it's so much a question of a 'need', simply a way for Betfair to make more money. I would like to see a more honest and open approach from Betfair regarding PC and cross matching. Rather than coming up with statements like "we are improving the way unmatched bets are displayed", they should actually be open with what they're really doing. |