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mythical prince
19 Dec 09 01:40
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Date Joined: 20 Sep 06
| Topic/replies: 3,712 | Blogger: mythical prince's blog
lets be honest, gambling is tough. whenever im reading through the threads on here, and you see the remarkable intelligence that goes it to some of them, it occurs to me that its very difficult to make a meaningful profit on betfair, or gambling in general.

the basic problem is, even if you have all the discipline in the world, you still need a reasonable skill level, and you have to be able to profit from the mistakes of others.

it seems to me that joking aside, and i dont mean the money trees of this world, that the average betfair user is highly intelligent when compared to the rest of the general population. but i dont think the average betfair user even kids himself that he thinks he can use this intelligence to make long term profits, like most gamblers he bets because he/she is addicted.

so my question is, are there really thick people on betfair who are helping to make money for the brighter amongst us? and if there are are there enough of them?

personally i think that betfair would help the average punter on here by banning bots for good. that would make it an easier, more level playing field for your average joe punter. I understand that they have raised the commision rate for the small percentage of punters who are highly successful, but I think that's the wrong way of going about it. anybody can use a bot, you dont have to be a big player to get one.

basically on betfair you are betting against a highly intelligent "group brain" if you are talking about say, a football match between arsenal and manchester united. theres no way with all the information involved that the market is going to be way out of kilter. add in the commision and the average joe punter has next to no chance of making a profit in the long term.

you could argue that its much easier to make long term profits on poker, for example, than on fixed odds betting. when you play against just one person, theres much more chance that he'll do something stupid and put the odds massively in your favour. but I dont see how an average punter (maybe i'm referring to myself here) can get the same edge on a market when theres a huge amount of intelligence behind it.

sorry if this thread sounds a bit funny but im tired and just want to get my general thoughts across.
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Report tobermory December 19, 2009 1:49 AM GMT
say, a football match between arsenal and manchester united. theres no way with all the information involved that the market is going to be way out of kilter

Don't agree there.

Last year JPG had a thread on one of Chelsea's games , i think there SP was 1.94 , but huge amounts had been matched at 2.10 and as low as 1.81 . So the market was no doubt right at one point , but it could not have been right all the time , and must have been 'way out ' at some point .And a lot of games are like that.

My guess would be .......

70% Lose to other people on here
25% Lose to Betfair (commision)
5% Win
Report Get On MASSIVE December 19, 2009 1:54 AM GMT
You're probably not too far off the mark. I'd say about the top 5% on here make 95% of the total profits per annum.

The people making the real money do so because they have an understanding of numbers rather than being experts at their chosen sports.
Report mythical prince December 19, 2009 2:02 AM GMT
maybe, but even then they are getting say at best an 20 percent edge, and thats if they get it right. on the poker your edge can be much bigger than that, because of the buffon you might be facing down on the other side of the table.

i make the poker comparison because I think its relevant to betfair, when i first started playing online poker about six years ago, the standard was pretty awful to be honest, it was like printing money.

but now it seems to be its much much tougher, maybe because they banned the yanks, or just that every shark around with a laptop and poker tracking software cottoned on to the same thing, that there was easy money to be made, and now I find it's nearly impossible to make serious profits unless you take it incredibly seriously, and I just dont enjoy poker enough to do that (plus I tilt too much :-) )

It seems to me that betfair is going the same way, that the only way you can possibly win now is if you have some serious software and take it incredibly seriously, maybe that was always the case but it seems to have taken the fun out of the game. What chance does your average punter have of beating some highly developed computer program? I'd like to see a more level playing field, that it's just my brain against someone elses.

also another point I would make about the collective brain of the markets is, I play chess to a very high level (about the only thing I do to a high level :-) ) and recently betfair had a market on a big chess tournament. Now there were some silly bets being placed, and it seemed to me a lot of that was to do with the low liquidity involved. Since people actually had to think up the price themselves, they didnt have a clue.

But if you have a market with much more liquidity, that basically guides you towards the correct price, because of the weight of public opinion/ Proffessional gamblers forming the market. so its very hard to make a very silly bet say on these big events, but at the same time its very hard to get a meaningful edge on them.
Report rink rat December 19, 2009 5:57 AM GMT
Following Sports, horses in general is like a craft. The more knowledge you aquire and study, the more edge you posess against the so-called market makers.
Report Beat The OverRound December 19, 2009 7:01 AM GMT
i dont think the average betfair user even kids himself that he thinks he can use this intelligence to make long term profits, like most gamblers he bets because he/she is addicted.

so my question is, are there really thick people on betfair who are helping to make money for the brighter amongst us? and if there are are there enough of them?


I think both these statements are incorrect.
I think all betfair users kid themselves that they can use their intelligence to make long term profits.
Some do, others keep kidding themselves.
I don't think the average betfair user is addicted though, addicts can get their kicks at the local bookie because percentages don't matter.
The average betfair user is no mug, he is intelligent, that's why he's here in the first place, he just keeps trying to seek out an edge, but the rest won't let him.
The more "minds" contesting an event, the more likely the market is to be exactly accurate. Which is why despite one's best efforts, your opponent usually wins by TKO, because they (the market) know or see something you don't.
Report Contrarian December 19, 2009 9:29 AM GMT
you could argue that its much easier to make long term profits on poker, for example, than on fixed odds betting. when you play against just one person, theres much more chance that he'll do something stupid and put the odds massively in your favour. but I dont see how an average punter (maybe i'm referring to myself here) can get the same edge on a market when theres a huge amount of intelligence behind it.

I don't agree with this. I bet on a lot of the sub-events of a main event (eg Asian handicap markets) where there is a lot less volume traded than on the main market. Here I often find that I am taking the other side of an individual large bet that makes up a huge proportion of the total bet on that market. This is much more like a poker game in that it's my judgment against his.
Report thankyoumugs December 19, 2009 9:48 AM GMT
why do you think that you need ( mugs) in order to make your profits or prices that are wrong ?? you will only win by choosing bets that win, not because the person your betting against is stupid, if you cant make long term profits on betfair , then its because you havent got any skills. commission problem can be alleviated by waiting for prices to drif or decrease, before executing your bets.
Report catfloppo December 19, 2009 10:08 AM GMT
You can't win unless you take wrong prices
Report DStyle December 19, 2009 10:33 AM GMT
firstly, from a practical standpoint it's impossible to "ban bots"

secondly, you are not up against a computer, you are up against the logic implemented in a algorithm by a real person. the edge has not been invented by a computer and regardless of whether your bets are matched against a website user or an automated program, it remains that you continue to bet against someone else's judgement.

i struggle with this anti software approach. far too many people overestimate the advantage software can provide. a big bank, good discipline, some tidy software, and take it seriously and you'll be raking it in. forget about a real edge.......
Report The Visionary December 19, 2009 10:51 AM GMT
agreed the "have bot, must win" view on here is a misconception

If you aren't winning before letting your bot run, you certainly aren't winning with it. All that will happen is you will lose your money quicker.
Report ActiveX December 19, 2009 10:56 AM GMT
There are are large number of API solutions out there, which are automated or semi automated bots. When the API broke last week the forum was full of these users moaning that there bots wouldn't work. The most obvious result of these bots not being used was that volumes on horse racing were well down, hence BF's revenue as well. Can't see BF wanting to ban bots.
Report DStyle December 19, 2009 10:58 AM GMT
just a terminology thing here. a bot is generally something that runs without user intervention. it's a very different thing from a lot of the trading software used by feck's best friends.
Report ActiveX December 19, 2009 11:02 AM GMT
Sorry DStyle

Wasn't aware of the distinction.
Report PIP99 December 19, 2009 11:09 AM GMT
EVERYONE LOSES ON BETFAIR


COMM AND PREMIUM CHARGE
Report Hiawatha December 19, 2009 12:02 PM GMT
Wise words indeed Mythical, unfortunately the vast majority of the players on here are hypnotised by what they "think" they can win rather than just looking at how they actually end up.
Report mythical prince December 19, 2009 12:08 PM GMT
don't agree with this. I bet on a lot of the sub-events of a main event (eg Asian handicap markets) where there is a lot less volume traded than on the main market. Here I often find that I am taking the other side of an individual large bet that makes up a huge proportion of the total bet on that market. This is much more like a poker game in that it's my judgment against his.

^
well this is kind of like what i was saying about the chess market. that if you are battling against a huge weight of opinion then it becomes much harder, but if you are betting against a small amount of people or just one person then they are much more guessing to what the price would be.

In some ways I think your average joe punter would lose a lot more on betfair if there wasnt such a huge weight of opinion. if they had to go into a market say on west ham-chelsea, in a scenario where there wasnt a lot of liquidity about, then they'd struggle to know what the price should be, but in reality they are kind of forced to back at the correct price, they are not going to take 1.3 on chelsea when theres a huge amount of money available at 1.42. although that might contradict what I was saying earlier!

its a bit like in chess where the overall standard raises year on year, strong moves and plans become embedded in the overall conciousness and it eventually becomes easier to make a strong move than it does to make a bad move.
Report mythical prince December 19, 2009 12:17 PM GMT
thats right hiawatha, in fact I was reading two blogs last night posted by different traders, In one this guy called adam heathcote was claiming to make thousands per week trading before an event, which is great for him but you kind of got the impression that he was planning it like a military operation,

but on the other hand there was this blog by this guy who was working 6 days a week full time, but was a long term loser, even though he seemed to know must of the ins and outs of trading and took it very seriously.

which leads me to suggest that a lot of people are deluded about the difficulty involving in winning large sums on betfair. its not just an intellectual excercise, its more than that. being a long term successful pro (and I would never claim to be one) seems to me to require a unique set of skills, the ability to retain composure under pressure, an extraordinary intution for how the markets move/ which horses are underestimated in the market,

total self belief in yourself and other skills mainly linked to self discipline and ability to make pain staking research. all of which are probably beyond the casual punter.

it seems to me that you have to have a special personality to make long term profits from gambling, you have to be a master of your emotions and be quite happy to lead what amounts to a very lonely existence.

and if thats not enough betfair come along and say that instead of paying 2 percent, you actually have to pay 20 percent on your winnings! :-)
Report mythical prince December 19, 2009 12:18 PM GMT
btw hiawatha i was cutting and pasting someones post earlier and wasnt referring to your post when i said "i dont agree with this"
Report Coachbuster December 19, 2009 12:56 PM GMT
Most people in life are good at only one or two things .

Science professors usually only excel at science, they would probably make very bad supermarket managers ,mechanics or Accountants .


You just have to have the right type brain for exchange betting at the expense of everything else.
Report The Investor December 19, 2009 1:04 PM GMT
What's your elo mythical?
Report Feck N. Eejit December 19, 2009 1:23 PM GMT
When you read some of the illiterate posts regarding the premium charge it makes you wonder how they make a profit in the first place. If betfair weren't allowing **ing en masse to take place most of the 'sharp minds' would disappear.
Report mythical prince December 19, 2009 1:32 PM GMT
2479 although was high as 2570 once! got a couple of books coming out next year- one of them is called play chess like the pros.
Report Pinza December 19, 2009 1:43 PM GMT
I follow the Henry Ford principle - any colour so long as it's black
Jack of all - Master on none

Ditched the football bets
Ditched NH - too many fallers
Ditched gaming machines in teen years
Tried Blackjack etc prior to gaming laws and ditched that in teens

Still working to find the correct solution to making money.
Staking is a problem
Discipline a bigger problem
I make a small profit but nothing exceptional.
It could be better.

Its flat racing only but AW maybe on way to ditch also
Its low class racing especially Dec-Feb
Hard to get a line on so many smaller training establishments

Betfair is defintely a distraction
Spend too much time watching markets
Reading Forum (and answering)

The right way is probably to study more
Limit number of bets
Decide on the bet
Back it at value price or lay

If it's a win bet then back and keep at various higher prices in running
or bet with bookie who offers a price but pays the higher price if it drifts.

Then back to studies or once a week go shopping with wife!!!!
Report kef4o December 19, 2009 7:34 PM GMT
You have it so wrong in my opinion. I cannot believe that this wasn't mentioned before, or maybe I didn't understand responses right but:

This is an exchange. And it behaves like such. Are there too many sharp people? No. It doesn't work like that. After all, if exchanges were perfect estimators to values, there wouldn't be day traders trading gazillions on the stock exchange, on the indexes etc., and making huge profits, either for themselves, or for themselves and the people who have trusted them their money. Day traders exist because they KNOW stuff the market just doesn't. They think out of the box, and get the results too. Not many people can do this, because that's just very hard to do right.

It's not just 'sharp mind' money out there, nor are 'sharp minds' a necessary guide to the market. Also prices are so easily manipulated, it's unreal. In the financial world, a signle expert statement can turn a market on its head. I remember reading about somedy on here, who was limited by one of the high street bookies. And he managed to exploit that to his advantage. He knew that he wouldn't be able to place a bet by phone but still, he called and asked to place a bet on horse x. They denied him a bet, or offered him pennies but at the same time they changed the prices of the market, shortening horse x. So the guy went out to a betting shop and placed his real bet on horse y, essentially getting himself better odds with the help of a phonecall.
Report Hopeless bettor December 19, 2009 8:16 PM GMT
I win long term.
Report jonnyg December 19, 2009 9:59 PM GMT
It's not just 'sharp mind' money out there, nor are 'sharp minds' a necessary guide to the market. Also prices are so easily manipulated, it's unreal. In the financial world, a signle expert statement can turn a market on its head. I remember reading about somedy on here, who was limited by one of the high street bookies. And he managed to exploit that to his advantage. He knew that he wouldn't be able to place a bet by phone but still, he called and asked to place a bet on horse x. They denied him a bet, or offered him pennies but at the same time they changed the prices of the market, shortening horse x. So the guy went out to a betting shop and placed his real bet on horse y, essentially getting himself better odds with the help of a phonecall.

very easy to manipulate markets.

i went to a bookie shop and asked for a price on set tennis betting

asked £500 they offered £50 and then cut the price it was not even an arb

haha
Report kef4o December 19, 2009 10:27 PM GMT
You missed my point.
Report jair1970 December 20, 2009 12:03 AM GMT
Mythical

Having read your comments over a number of years, I am astounded by your high level of chess ability.

I had you down as a bandwagon follower of the highest order (and still do ;) ) and am actually impressed.

Kudos to you and stick to what you're good at!
Report Compound Magic December 20, 2009 12:54 AM GMT
I tend to think the majority on here are people like me with only an average intellect. They
bet on Betfair because it is convenient and the many options it affords.

Even people with an average intellect can make money on here. You need to specialise in
a particular area, be more knowledgeable than the mass that bets on that particular field.

Doing that over and over, you will find an edge in that market. Then to make it pay you need to stick strictly to a proven money management method.

From a Hornblower book I read this ~
"The lucky man is he who knows how much to leave to chance"
Report spurs to buy big December 20, 2009 1:17 AM GMT
dont worry bout the the sharp minds ...its the sharper fully booted and botted feckers waitin to rape ya u should be a fraid of
Report Treble_Underscore December 20, 2009 10:34 AM GMT
The question really is "are there enough mugs on here to make a profit" and the answer is yes.
Report mythical prince December 20, 2009 1:33 PM GMT
thank you jair. a lot of that bandwagon stuff is tounge in cheek anyway, bit like when money tree advises a lay or a back and is actually doing the opposite ;)

do u play chess yourself? highest i got was number four in the country amongst active players. got a plus score against 2700s at classical time limits as well! although only played three of them. two draws (against aronian and bacrot) and one win (against dreev.)unfortunately a chronic fear of flying has restricted my ability to play enough tournaments to fully realise my potential :-(
Report errant December 20, 2009 2:37 PM GMT
Im also astounded by your high level of chess ability. Its a game I was totally obsessed by many years ago; Ive played Korchnoi and Tony Miles, I suppose I should add they were only simultaneous displays unfortunately!
Report Coachbuster December 20, 2009 3:02 PM GMT
good post ,compound magic
Report mythical prince December 20, 2009 3:29 PM GMT
yeah i knew tony quite well. got to know him at a tournament in bermuda. lovely bloke, bit misunderstood, quite a one off. had struggles with mental problems at times in his life but v sad when he died

he had a real pyschical prescence at the board, correcting the pieces in exactly the middle of the square, blowing away any imaginary hairs of speck of dust that he thought might be lying there.
first time i played him was in 1997 british in hove, was completely winning after about 15 moves with black but got psyched out and agreed to a draw!
Report The Investor December 20, 2009 8:04 PM GMT
That's very impressive, especially having a + score against some of the best players in the world.
I played at a club for about a year back in 2004. Got to a playing strength around 1800 (Dutch national rating) as I was living in Holland at the time (back in London now).
One thing I can say, is that I also have a + score against stronger players, 1.5 out of 2 against players rated 2000+ in rated games, one of which was rated way higher and a FM.

Coming back to your original post:

so my question is, are there really thick people on betfair who are helping to make money for the brighter amongst us? and if there are are there enough of them?

I don't see it like that. I think there are plenty of people who bet 'for fun', and are effectively throwing their money away. Personally I don't like gambling if the odds are stacked against me, but some people will happily go to the casino and play roulette. Although some of them may kid themselves that they have some kind of winning system, most of these people will bet, despite knowing that they are playing a game with a negative expectancy. In a game like this, it will only ever be possible to make money by luck, not by any application of skill. In some extremely rare circumstances, in may be possible to profit because of faulty equipment, but in this case there would be no negative expectancy.

I agree with Compound Magic, that you don't need to be exceedingly clever to make money gambling / trading. Not many people writing academic papers on gambling with lots of complicated formula's actually make any money! (Ed Thorp is a notable exception). Some of them even claim that that's not what they're interested in. When I hear of someone gambling 'using scientific methods' I am very sceptical. Not because I think people shouldn't be using scientific methods, but because they give the impression that they are superior to others using simpler methods. The vast majority of these 'scientific methods' will be unnecessarily complex. The small group of people from the world of academia that were successful gambling / trading were motivated by making money, not proving their theories to the world at large.

Having solid numerical skills is hugely beneficial for all kinds of gambling, but it's only part of it. Emotion plays an important role when significant amounts are at stake, and this can cause very clever people to do very stupid things. Having a simple set of rules in place is vital. I believe that the more detached you are, the better. Performance analysis is also an important aspect for me.

You don't need to be a bot user to make money. Although having said that, pretty much everyone I've met that makes a lot on betfair, automates at least some of what they do. I'm still using the web interface, and paying Premium Charges on a regular basis. I am planning to start using bots, although this has been in the pipeline for about a year now.

In an event with a high level of liquidity, you can still make money by looking at the selections and markets in relation to each other. Model the event. If the prices are not in line with each other, they cannot be correct! If you can pinpoint what isn't correct, you can make money.

I've heard of quite a few strong chess players developing an interest in poker. The huge sums involved are obviously attractive. Especially compared to chess!

You probably heard about this:
http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=5841
Report ActiveX December 21, 2009 9:32 AM GMT
so my question is, are there really thick people on betfair who are helping to make money for the brighter amongst us? and if there are are there enough of them?

In answer to that, there are many recreational, net losers on Betfair IMHO. They enjoy the experience and can be ahead many times but ultimately lose long term. As long as they are not fleeced quickly they stay here and have their punt, they pay for the experience eventually.
Report Rocket to the FACE December 21, 2009 9:40 AM GMT
so my question is, are there really thick people on betfair who are helping to make money for the brighter amongst us? and if there are are there enough of them?

Maybe not thick, just average punters. You'll find people making mistakes all day. It happens in footy all the time, especially low liquidity markets where folk don't seem to know what price to put up. Take the Benfica - Porto game last night. Just under 10 miins into the game the under 1.5 HT market was pretty bare with 1.12 on the back side and something like 1.37 on the lay side. Somebody backed 1.12 for 100 odd quid. Don't know about you but backing 1.12 with 35 minutes left seems a bit silly to me. I'd expect a price like that after 30 minutes. All he had to do was request a bigger price and chances are it would have been matched. There was a goal on the 22nd minute.
Report The Betfairy December 21, 2009 10:18 AM GMT
I remember playing Micahel Adams in a club match many years ago. I'd spent a month preparing for the game, then developed chicken pox a week before. Not wanting to miss my chance I played anyway, and got 20 moves into a French Defence as black - using the exact same moves as he had used in a match about a month earlier! Unfortunately I lost the line and resigned a couple of moves later. That was the highlight of my chess career.
Report zooot December 22, 2009 11:21 AM GMT
stock markets are far more evolved than betfair and yet they are still far from perfect markets dominated by super sharp minds. Stock markets have ridiculous bubbles and busts as a whole and in individual markets. The stock market and betfair is far more driven by emotions than most people think. So incorrect prices happen all the time.
Report yoyo December 22, 2009 12:07 PM GMT
have you sharp minds forgotten, mark davies, "nobody in the uk wins on betfair" quote from evening standard this summer
Report buzzer December 22, 2009 12:09 PM GMT
yet layers are to be taxed yoyo? How will losing uk layers be taxed?
Report subversion December 22, 2009 12:09 PM GMT
some of the sharpest minds use bots... and bots going haywire is always a great source of fun, hilarity, and crazy market prices :D
Report yoyo December 22, 2009 12:12 PM GMT
1% turnover tax, EVERY style bookmaker
Report The Investor December 23, 2009 2:38 PM GMT
yoyo 22 Dec 13:07
have you sharp minds forgotten, mark davies, "nobody in the uk wins on betfair" quote from evening standard this summer


He was misquoted apparently
Report Lozzy December 23, 2009 5:11 PM GMT
Those who answer YES to the question in the thread are talking complete nonsense.

The market has far more mugs in it than smart punters, and even smart punters are capable of making seriously mug bets.

There are cracking bets out there most days of the week when the market homes in on the wrong factors, it's just about developing the skills to identify them.

Cant say I have yet on a regular enough basis, but there are enough times when I am open mouthed about how punters are wrongly thinking to give me real hope.
Report Glasgow Brian December 23, 2009 5:37 PM GMT
I believe that the main factor is --CHASING LOSSES
You need to fathom a system out and stick to it for at least 300 bets ----so therefore COVER your balance and back to percentages .
Report JPSER July 10, 2023 6:00 PM BST
sharp minds on here LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Escapee July 23, 2023 3:37 PM BST
So many high quality posters from times gone by in this thread

The General Betting forum used to be such a gold mine of ideas and intelligent people.
Report duncan idaho July 27, 2023 2:10 PM BST
Sad
Report DIE LINKE July 29, 2023 2:40 PM BST
Most of them are living under a bridge or dead.
Report ericster November 25, 2023 10:39 AM GMT
Sorry for stating the obvious but:

I rather suspect that we, well most of us, realised a long time ago that the  dream, in reality, is not what it might once have seemed.
As a consequence I think, many have fallen by the wayside, some just carry on, and quite a few I think, have, over time, become more focused and, at the very least, hang on to what they've got in their account.
and so, in response to another thread in here, those who actually ARE turning a bean or three are NOT interested in discussing their methods for obvious reasons.
It's every man, or woman, for themselves here and good luck to us all.

Enjoy your day.
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