laying favourites

i'll lay Muwalla - I'm not shy!

Just looking at em ...I would NOT lay Muwalla .....but you know better than me re this laying game ...so GL

4-runner race - watch Rainsboro go!

You've got 20 cigs back Ivor :D wd

4.30 - don't like shape of race !!!!!

FAV SAMAAHA ....no surprise there then!...again would not lay...and again I might be wrong .....but just looks a likely winner...in poor race

zipper 21 Sep 15:40
False fav heres 3 today ...4.30 Samaaha ... 5.00 Getcarter ... 5.20 Ancient Cross.

====================================

Soon see zip if it is false or not .......

Beauchamp Xiara and Ashes Summer are lightly raced ....but against Gosden and fav ones ....unlikely to beat either ....soon see though

Kinetix - don't think going suits this horse ...soon see

Thanks for you company gentlemen and DFC - gardening now whilst still dry. Stay GREEN!
2009-09-21
16:07 GB Ham 21st Sep / 16:10 1m1f Mdn Stks / Oneofapear Back Won
15:54 GB Kemp 21st Sep / 16:00 1m4f Hcap / Ottoman Empire Lay Won
15:50 GB Leic 21st Sep / 15:50 1m2f Claim Stks / Traphalgar Lay ------------2.36 Lost
15:35 GB Ham 21st Sep / 15:40 1m1f Hcap / Funky Munky Lay Won
15:25 GB Kemp 21st Sep / 15:30 7f Mdn Stks / Faithful One Lay Won
15:08 GB Ham 21st Sep / 15:10 1m3f Hcap / Naomh Geileis Lay Won
14:58 GB Kemp 21st Sep / 15:00 7f Mdn Stks / Muwakaba Lay ---------------4.70 Lost
14:47 GB Leic 21st Sep / 14:50 To Be Placed / Equipe De Nuit Back Won
14:36 GB Ham 21st Sep / 14:40 6f Hcap / Sakhees Pearl Lay Won
14:25 GB Kemp 21st Sep / 14:30 To Be Placed / Dahaam Back Won
13:36 GB Ham 21st Sep / 14:10 To Be Placed / Sand Skier Back Won

late arrival ;16:19 GB Leic 21st Sep / 16:20 7f Nov Stks / Muwalla Lay Won

RAINING up here .....not many chances to venture into garden .......so GL with rain staying off Ivor !!!!! cheers the nooooooooooooooooooo

4.40 - Caranbola - fav ...and only 3 yo in race ....and looked to be coming close to winning from bad draw last time ....every chance to win this IMO ...so would not lay.

My Lay Stats
Selections 499 499
Winners 239 393
Strike Rate 47.90% 78.76%
Points Profit 27.78 47.12
Profit On Turnover 5.57% 9.44%
ROI 105.57% 109.44%

:D

All were favourite or close to favourite

Scottish trained horse wins a late race at HAMILTON ....no surprise.....still happy avoiding a lay of potential winner though !

4.50 Saturn Girl - lightly race horse from quality stable.....and 3 yo WOULD NOT LAY! Also well drawn.

Hypnotist , also 3 yo .... but draw against it ...apparently! Looks the danger to fav.

Black Rain .....might be one to take fav on .....but still would not lay fav!!!!

Though BLACK RAIN also drawn low????? so makes it trickier to win

5.00 - Strictly looks likely winner........but may be effected by middleish draw ??????

Looks a dodgy race to lay in !!!


Fav is GET CARTER ......but is s fiercely competive race ....Would not lay in WIN market ...only PLACE market ...

Still only had 1 lay of fav selection ...and only 1 "winner" so far ..........

Kempton 5.00
1st 11 Getcarter 2-1 F
2nd 4 Ray Of Joy 6-1
3rd 2 Victoria Sponge (IRE) 10-1

Will stop there ...no damage done :D

Away for tea .........

BTO ROI indicates he may be laying FAVS then backing IR ??????

Cheers the noooooooooo

zipper 21 Sep 15:40
False fav heres 3 today ...4.30 Samaaha ... 5.00 Getcarter ... 5.20 Ancient Cross.
================================================

Hpe you fail to get hat trick zip ]:) :D

zip - I see why you don't bet after 4.00 pm ( think that was time indicated previously?) :D

4.00 pm works for me ... my bets won my nap won ( see div 1 ) and the nurse arrives every day at 4.05 ....... so betfair has to go .

BTO ROI indicates he may be laying FAVS then backing IR ??????


No, that is laying selected shorties at Betfair SP after 5% commission deducted.
There is no IR with this approach.

Sorry BTO - forgot you are based in australia ...so no IR !!!! WD on ROI.

If a nurse came to me at 4.05 pm every day ....even I might stop at 4 zip !!!!!!!

Seriously........as i believe certain factors change around 4.00 pm.........it is prudent to stop around 4.00 pm ....if you are not aware of said factors ]:)

Will dabble again today with ad-lib guesses on which favs I think look like lays.....back shortly.( wd on nap winner yesterday)

2.20 - Ruthie Babe appears a strong fav ......extra 6 llbs today might effect it ...and Devassa , Freefortoday or Azif may be ones to take it on...and even other horses might come into it ....so is a fav that could well be beaten today ....but odds are a bit high for me...not value to lay ...so pass on this one.

2.30 - Capucci as fav loks to have a few 3 yods to take it on ....and is top weight with middlish draw......so appears to be a lay bet ......but odds are a wee bit high ....so not sure re this one yet.

Arteus and Ultimate Respect look dangers to it + others ...so YES fav looks a lay to me .

Arteus and Ultimate Respect look dangers to it + others ...so YES fav looks a lay to me .

2.40 Shanballa may find conditions today a bit fast ... and Matuhi and some others could take it on......howeevr .....it could win ...so no lay!

Going may well effect fav in 2.40 ...soon see

2.50 Welsh Opera may find the younger horses a bit hot for it today ......and has extra 6 llbs ....but has good draw.......

Probably will lead most of way .....and might be caught at line ...

Chandika has a dodgy draw ...but going should suit it ...so probably a back on fav ...then lay at 2.2 would be my option here....

The Name Is Frank is now fav ....also may find 3 yods too hot for it ...also a back to lay IR

Changed mind re THE NAME IS FRANK as a back to lay ....may be too slow early on for such a bet ...so NO BET on this one.............

Changed mind re THE NAME IS FRANK as a back to lay ....may be too slow early on for such a bet ...so NO BET on this one.............

3.00 a novice race ...at short distance ..and appears to be a bit too open shape for me.... Camacho Flyer at odds looks a bit high .....

FAV currently Coolminx..................could well win this.... GOING totally differenr from when it won ....so a doubt creeps in on this one ....Dorback down in trip......looks a threat ....and going should be ok.

Just not sure re a lay on fav here.......it could well win ...so no lay on this race.

Burnt Cream - should do well today on going ...so fav is open to a lay ....but no l;ay selected ...not sure.

Burnt Cream - should do well today on going ...so fav is open to a lay ....but no l;ay selected ...not sure.

3.10 - Honours Graduate fell last time out ...and the going totally different to when was doing well recently!!!!! So a big doubt re fav here.

1 silks 0P-052P Baily Storm (IRE) 55 7 11-0 Tim Vaughan R Johnson 114 nag me SP SP 2/1
2 silks 857/9 Lord Of Creevard (IRE) 16 7 11-0 Tim Vaughan S E Durack nag me SP SP 18/1
3 silks 3U7-972 On My Terms (IRE) 24 7 11-0 J J Lambe S Thomas 87 nag me

are all threats to fav...plu some others ...so YES the fav is a lay selection in both win and place market

dfcironman novice, maiden hurdles are the best races to back in . most won by fav or 2nd fav

Honours Graduate - seems to have done all racining in IRELAND ...so probably very well treated ....but fast going today may well not suit it .....especially if 7 yods start fast.

3.20 - Maswerte seems to have every chance of winning ....danger Kaabariand The Galloping Shoe


But not opting the fav as a lay !

I'm aware that Md Hurdle races are like that Freddie .......but I personally don't like backing short odds horses !!!!! So generally I don't dabble backing in em ............................though the winner was my nap in comp today ...so happy with that :D :D

Good to see DFC keepin the fred running!
I think Fallons MacWhriter is a ly - but not for myself

3.30 - Percolator looks a big danger to favourite here.....Pawan looks only a place threat....

So a lay on fav would be a selection at the odds ...as they are far too short IMO

WD Ivor ..on that selection .....

ta - wood think ISHEittwo is place at 1.45ish

YUP Ivor ...that one is due to be there or there about today in this race......but PERCULATOR might win..............

Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...I forgot this is a CONDITIONS STAKES race ....so i might well get this wrong.......though fav at odds still looks a lay ...PERCULATOR may not win :(

Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...I forgot this is a CONDITIONS STAKES race ....so i might well get this wrong.......though fav at odds still looks a lay ...PERCULATOR may not win :(

Percolator even

1120-88 Percolator

When checking SL race record ..it only won once ?????Must have been a DH the other win ????

YUP -----the card is WRONG re race record !!!!!

and YUP ....got that race wrong re fav ....CONDITIONS STAKES races ....not keen on ......this type of error happens when just ad-libbing!!!!

3.40 Huguenot.....might be a lay ....not sure yet!

Kickahead and the Irish trained horse Priest Field appear dangers to fav


Odds for fav are a bit high on the race ....to lay ....but will take a chance on this one as a lay !

KICKAHEAD appears to hold good chance today

wouldn't lay - place at 1.7ish suits Ifor

Trouble with this race is the fav could win IF KICKAHEAD does not complete course!!!!!

So with this in mind ........I'll with draw the lay in this race on fav!

3.50 can see why the fav is LADY PILOT ...from memory was a Pipe trained horse.....and going may be too fast at this point in season for 3 yods winning at this distance against 7 yo horse.


Looks a low clas race ......Double Spectre could well figure in finish on going..... and Dazzling Begum

Nope would not lay LADY PILOT...........

WD Ivor re place lay :D

? place back LOST :(

KICKAHEAD was more of a BACK than laying fav in last .....but that is not purpose of thread!!!!

Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ...you backed it :( ....sorry never read properly!

LAYing Lady Pilot - no.2 in trap 2 - bad omens ;)

I am wrong re LADY PILOT being Pipe btrained horse .....so perhaps there is a doubt about fav ...FALLON might carry it home first though!!!

Still think ...at the odds DOUBLE SPECTRE is ew selection on race....soon see

Away for coffee....may miss next race....:(

4.00 Namecheck has advantage of race under belt ...and German bred so going should not be problem.....only MJ horse !!!!

Would not lay fav

WD Ivor :D :D

Dazzling assessment DFC!

coffee break with zippers nurse..

4.10 Weather Front seems to hold strong chance in this race ....carrying top weight ...but on going should not stop it running a fair race. WOULD NOT LAY

Loom might take it on ....or some of Irish horses

PAWAN 2nd at 40-1 SP ....my best guess of day .......would prefer zipper's nurse to call now as the shock of that one getting close to winning is tooooooooooo much !!!! :D

Nurse was too big for Ifor - prefer pertit nurses :(

DFC nose his biz after funf years!

4.20 don't like shape of race or distance ...so no lay on fav.......................though it might struggle to win against Silk And Satin......

420 avoided - with half the field missin - all sorts of weird happenings occur

4.30 - Green Agenda looks obvious fav here.....giving a bit weight away ....but on going should not effect so much therefore appears to have a strong chance today against fav!

Steel Trade may be a threat as well ....so at the odds Northern Flyer,s a lay


Now fav is Just Five ........not sure about this one .....but on shape of race









DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT by time typed this GREEN AGENDA is fav and WOULD NOT LAY

FAV changing fequently ....so will just stick to GREEN ADENDA not a lay....NORTHERN FLYER appears to be one !

Won and only WIN back today is Fo4.50 Silverglas.
This selexion process has a 50.85% strike-rate at average win odds of 2.95 and longest losing sequence of 4. The last selection Shammy Buskin was a winner at 3.4 on Sunday.

Not checked out race yet Ivor ....maybe zipper could surface from nurse and give his learned opinion on 4.50 ?????

LAYed Naughty Flyer

I think we are alone :)

Silverglas - has a very strong chance to win this race ...agree on that one ...not sure about odds...3.05 is very GOOD!!!!!

Al Sabaheya and African Cheetah appear the dangers ....and Goodwood Starlight.

But does look a good back bet in this race Ivor ...GL

(I'll cover with a place back at 1.5ish)

wd again Ivor ...

I didn't get where I am today by not being Northernist

Tempsford flies when you're having fun ; small place at 1.66ish

4.40 Tempsford (USA) ....may not like the slower going in this race type ....not a true GTF race......so in a fairly competitive race .....there are doubts about it winning .....but based on memory ....if it gets round it has a strong chance of winning ...so would not lay today!

Strong Coffee - should have a chance in this race .....but again from mempry this is a dodgy horse ...so would not back or lay!

Ewe knead a knew fred tomorrow DFC :-

I'm supposed to be tidying up old paperwork tomorrow .....so may not be around ivor ......I'll leave it to others to let originator of thread see that it is not "easy2 getting right fav to lay etc etc .......

think i'll stop now ....as tea needs to be made :(

Gl Ivor on 4.50 race .......hopefully the stable now beginning to fire .....

Cheers the nooooooooooooooo

byeeeeeee

Had to watch your one win I ....:D :D a good finish and day for you ...wd

Cheers the noooooooooooooooooooooooo

ta - I'll post my summary in a moment and then gardening.
Another sunny evening ahead with 34.45% blue sky!

2009-09-22
16:37 GB Folk 22nd Sep / 16:50 To Be Placed / Silverglas Back Won
16:36 GB Folk 22nd Sep / 16:50 1m1f Hcap / Silverglas Back Won
16:34 GB Strat 22nd Sep / 16:40 To Be Placed / Tempsford Back --------------Lost
16:26 GB Bev 22nd Sep / 16:30 1m Hcap / Northern Flyer Lay Won
15:57 GB Bev 22nd Sep / 16:00 7f Mdn Stks / Namecheck Back Won
15:48 GB Folk 22nd Sep / 15:50 1m7f Hcap / Lady Pilot Lay Won
15:36 GB Strat 22nd Sep / 15:40 To Be Placed / Huguenot Back ---------------Lost
15:25 GB Bev 22nd Sep / 15:30 To Be Placed / Ishetoo Back Won
15:19 GB Folk 22nd Sep / 15:20 7f Hcap / Ivory Lace Lay Won
14:59 GB Bev 22nd Sep / 15:00 To Be Placed / Coolminx Back Won
14:50 GB Folk 22nd Sep / 14:50 To Be Placed / The Name Is Frank Back Won
14:24 GB Strat 22nd Sep / 14:40 To Be Placed / Seven Is My Number Back Won
14:19 GB Folk 22nd Sep / 14:20 To Be Placed / Ruthie Babe Back Won

no

no

Toprated 2 ....... cause ive nowt better to do ... here are the maths ...... fav win 33% of the time ,,,, you ok with that .. but they get beat 67% of the time that makes about 100% ... do you agree ...... but heres the rub as a x bookie who spent 40 years on course ..... there are fav and FAVS .......... the small fav i would lay till the cows come home . BUT the big FAVS i would back ( big time ) and lay the rest field .......Happy Christmas ...................Zipper

give us an eg of a small fav then zip /