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If you are working on a new system or method, how many bets before you decide upon the quality?
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15 ....... If you aint showing a proft in the first 15 bets ...... you will not be showing a profit in the next 150 bets ...... its all about the 10% angle .....
I'm looking into Maria's thread, zip. On the very first day she had 16 lays, and lost.
16 lays in one day your odds on to lose ..... 16 bets in one day your bigger odds on to lose .
Day of Week M. P. Profit ROI
Tuesday 11 11 +6.80 +11.3%
Wednesday 14 14 +13.30 +21.0%
Thursday 13 13 +2.39 +4.2%
Friday 14 14 +8.45 +16.2%
Saturday 15 15 -10.8 -14.2%
Sunday 1 1 +0.95 +21.1%
These are my results for this week simulated as lays to one unit. I've got one more winning lay today that I've still not entered. According to you this should be a winner long-term. But what if I had started on Saturday.
P.S.: I'm not claiming it is a winner.
Tuesday 11 11 +6.80 +11.3%
Wednesday 14 14 +13.30 +21.0%
Thursday 13 13 +2.39 +4.2%
Friday 14 14 +8.45 +16.2%
Saturday 15 15 -10.8 -14.2%
Sunday 1 1 +0.95 +21.1%
These are my results for this week simulated as lays to one unit. I've got one more winning lay today that I've still not entered. According to you this should be a winner long-term. But what if I had started on Saturday.
P.S.: I'm not claiming it is a winner.
Markets and picks, it's a copy from a part of my entries in trackbets.
So it's 68 bets bets in 68 markets.Horses ? Laying ?
Sorry,I can see it's laying.What are the prices you lay at ?
Aha. +1 one more, I had 2 winning lays today, just haven't added the second one. I thought I'd have just one but then I looked again at the last race and didn't agree with the market. Before anyone asks, it's lays upto 9.8.
I already asked,lol.
Whats your average price ? I'm guessing around 6.4 ?
Whats your average price ? I'm guessing around 6.4 ?
:P I was writing my responseso didn't see it. Tbh, I don't know. Trackbets doesn't provdie these stats. I'm really missing strike rate and avg. odds data. They provide an 'odds chart' displaying odds in groups:
1.82-2.00 1 +1.00 +111.1%
2.00-2.22 2 -0.16 -7%
2.22-2.50 2 +2.00 +71.4%
2.50-2.86 1 +1.00 +62.5%
2.86-3.33 1 +1.00 +43.5%
3.33-4.00 11 -0.1 -0.3%
4.00-5.00 13 -0.9 -2%
5.00-6.67 15 +15.00 +21.2%
6.67-10.00 22 +5.20 +3.3%
It's displayed without substracting commission, I have no idea why.
1.82-2.00 1 +1.00 +111.1%
2.00-2.22 2 -0.16 -7%
2.22-2.50 2 +2.00 +71.4%
2.50-2.86 1 +1.00 +62.5%
2.86-3.33 1 +1.00 +43.5%
3.33-4.00 11 -0.1 -0.3%
4.00-5.00 13 -0.9 -2%
5.00-6.67 15 +15.00 +21.2%
6.67-10.00 22 +5.20 +3.3%
It's displayed without substracting commission, I have no idea why.
I'll guess Musical Script was your lay in the last ?
Labisa. But I'm not too proud of it. Should have stayed away once I've decided it. Just one selection for the day was just killing me though.
Patience and discipline.With only one meeting probably best if you don't play on these days.
What price were you laying Labissa at ?
What price were you laying Labissa at ?
Just one selection for the day was just killing me though.
Very bad to not have control of your emotions. Betting must be done dispassionately.
If there are no selections, that's it.
If this is difficult, you will need to study psychology and get control.
In answer to your original question, hundreds. It depends on the price range, edge, etc.
Very bad to not have control of your emotions. Betting must be done dispassionately.
If there are no selections, that's it.
If this is difficult, you will need to study psychology and get control.
In answer to your original question, hundreds. It depends on the price range, edge, etc.
The bulk of your profit has come in the higher odds area.It's only a matter of time before 2 or 3 of this price band win and eat into your profits.
You have had a very good week,but sadly,your edge,if you do have one,will not be as big as the first weeks stats suggest.There may well be a smaller edge there,so you'll just have to run with it.
Run it for 500 races,then see how you stand,even if you have a crap week next week.
Good luck !
You have had a very good week,but sadly,your edge,if you do have one,will not be as big as the first weeks stats suggest.There may well be a smaller edge there,so you'll just have to run with it.
Run it for 500 races,then see how you stand,even if you have a crap week next week.
Good luck !
Got matched@6.6. I added it because it shouldn't have been inside my price range. Had I seen that earlier, I would have layed it anyway. It's just that the market had apparently developed in a different way than I had thought. I don't like my lay because I based it on a factor that cost me a lot on Saturday, though I'm not really sure whether I didn't win because of it on the rest of the days. I'm still working on it. ...lol if you only knew how limited my knowledge about horse racing actually is, you'd say I am mad to even attempt this with real money.
It's a numbers game,I play the same way.Dunno if the horse has 3 legs or 5.
Just play with small stakes,you wont lose much,as long as you stay disciplined.....and patient.
At least another 500 is definately needed,then you'll have more idea.Your first week was definately above average though,don't expect those figures every week.
Just play with small stakes,you wont lose much,as long as you stay disciplined.....and patient.
At least another 500 is definately needed,then you'll have more idea.Your first week was definately above average though,don't expect those figures every week.
I was thinking along the same lines, tiger. Maybe reevaluate every 100 lays or so, and then, if results are positive, see if I can do it on Gd/Gd-Sft ground, which I imagine is what the predominant conditions are in the summer?
I know it's most likely that I was quite lucky this week. Especially since I saw a bunch of selections come second or trade around the evens mark IR. I'm actually going to review my selections now and see how many times I got lucky.
I know it's most likely that I was quite lucky this week. Especially since I saw a bunch of selections come second or trade around the evens mark IR. I'm actually going to review my selections now and see how many times I got lucky.
Agree with small stakes.
Problem with paper trading is you don't know what price you would really have achieved.
Problem with paper trading is you don't know what price you would really have achieved.
Less than 5 lenghts of the winner: 25
Placed: 19
Traded below 3s if BSP over 4: 21
About a third of my winning lays. And I have 9 losing lays in total. Now, I either was very lucky, or I've been finding horses with strong support on the market, who are quality but for some reason couldn't win their races. I'm curious to see what next week brings.
Placed: 19
Traded below 3s if BSP over 4: 21
About a third of my winning lays. And I have 9 losing lays in total. Now, I either was very lucky, or I've been finding horses with strong support on the market, who are quality but for some reason couldn't win their races. I'm curious to see what next week brings.
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