Is it possible to make a profit acting as a bookmaker on Betfair?

Just wouldn't get matched on everything i suppose

To make money as a bookmaker you need price-insensitive customers.

To make money on Betfair you need a price-beating system.

Works fine one day,but not the next two.

if you kept making a profit on every race laying to percentages which sounds boring anyway, wouldn't the premium charge kick in and make it very silly indeed?

Just trying to figure out what Peter Thomas is on about

selective laying , laying losers full stop , guaranteed profits

CLYDEBANK , doing it with those small amounts could actually give you a profit , but the returns are so small that it isn't worth the time spent.
The problem is that when/if you start doing it for larger amounts you will get caught be the shrewdies in early markets and by rapid price movements in the last 10 - 20 minutes before the off.

The intention of this thread was to highlight the nonsense spoken in the RP which was highlighted by howard's thread that cant be responded to.

It seems you all agree with me

what was said in the RP?

It is possible. 105% no. 100.5% yes.

allegedly the journalist said this...

He says " Paul Roy isnt wrong... when he says that " no-one can be in business acting as a boomaker on betting exchanges without paying full levy ".

......................

the point of this being that it's virtuallly impossible to be a bookmaker on a betting exchange nowadays and turn a profit or if you do it's a pittance.

It would be interesting to trace the entire history of relations between certain bookmakers and journalists/BHA officials.
It would seem these people will advance any kind of myth to get their hands on our money.
This country sinks to new lows with each passing day.

Yes it is virtually impossible and nothing like bookmaking as the level of skill required to extract a profit is astronomically greater. Stupid quote even if it was easy.

Peter Thomas :- Paul Roy isnt wrong... when he says that " no-one can be in business acting as a boomaker on betting exchanges without paying full levy ".

Betfair forumites will cough , splutter and hide behind the spurious notion that any layer of a horse is also a backer , in the sense that he is , in effect , backing all the other horses in the race , and vice-versa.

On this basis , Ladblokes , C oral and H ills could be deemed to be all punters , and spared the inconviences of levies , licences , taxes and the need to be fit and proper persons.

By the same argument all backers with bookmakers are layers and should also pay levy.

Any bookmaker is at liberty to offer odds on a horse to lose just as betfair the bookmaker do. The fact they choose not to do that (the direct way at least) is their choice.

yeah good point, absurd comparison

another point is that 'bookmakers' on here have to take bets from whoever as you don't know who is placing them, you can't just match Money Tree's bets :)

want 200 on at evens? let me cancel my lay and offer it to you again at 1.8

test

I've tried posting on this and howard's thread but keeping getting a "this is a moderated forum .............." message.

Just happened again with the post I was trying to make.

Yes Yes .. but only if you know the game inside out ......

´Laying each runner´?

In my experience, no, this is just not possible, even to those sums; you lose control over pricing to people who are better informed than you.

It´s poss. to win as a layer but not imv w/out being more selective or more of a judge.

In the conventional sense, it is impossible.
Even if you can pick the direction of every favourite (impossible), the premium charge will eat you alive.
In an unbalanced book it is possible.
Laying multiple horses where the % of the runners covered in your part book is in your favour.

Why would the premium charge 'eat you alive'?

What a load of tosh written on this thread. It is entirely possible and the PC does not come anywhere near 'eating you alive'.

Cuban , of course it's possible , but I'd say it's very difficult and close to impossible to make consistant profit from it. You are right about the PC though.

The ones who will make good profits are those laying with a marked card

It is easy to lay horses you know have not been working well or are not particularly fancied.

It is entirely possible and the PC does not come anywhere near 'eating you alive'.

Absolutely right- and the PC comments are particularly dim as PC is only payed on consistent profits and is only ever a small part of them. It's not an easy thing to do but it can be done if you know how.

Whether it's worth is is a different question, as if you can do it you can probably do something better.

'I've tried posting on this and howard's thread but keeping getting a "this is a moderated forum .............." message.'


i think references to the R acing P ost and Pricewi$e trigger this message

I didn't mention either Duncan. I don't think the post referred to any individual.

Cuban 18 Dec 08:14
What a load of tosh written on this thread. It is entirely possible and the PC does not come anywhere near 'eating you alive'.



I would have thought that it is too. I don't do it as I know nothing more about horses than that they have 4 legs and tend to fall over every now and again. It can be done and is done on other markets, so why not horse racing?

It seems to me that there is too much punting to green up on individual markets. Whereas if you know the maths are with you then you ought to be able to take losses and profits and over a period it will work.

I run a bookmaking bot and it makes good money. Of course its possible and the premium charge only takes 20% maximum, and that's if you don't do anything else. But I would say it isn't easy. It's an advanced bot that has taken a lot of development and people trying to do it manually stand no chance.

I'm sure it's possible with an advanced computerised system skimming small profits time after time, where there is enough liquidity on the lay side at close to 100% for the bot acting quickly to gobble up and prevent the field layer getting a very unbalanced book against live selections, but I would say it represents a tiny fraction of successful users of this site.

If you are making no risk books, you pay commission on profit, not on turnover, therefore implied commission will always be less than commission paid.
Ergo - Hello 20% tax.

Don't get this wrong because I hate the PC , but since when does a 20 % tax on winnings/earnings "eat you alive" ?

Whatever way you play you will pay at least 20% of what would otherwise be your profits in comission. The only way of avoiding PC is to find some other way of paying extra "normal" comission. The idea that paying implied comission by losing is better than paying actual comission by winning is just daft. Other than in "comission paying" strategies which are not really trying to make a profit it is always best to optimise your betting to lose as little as possible.

A strategy that pays PC is inherantly better than one that does not as that shows that you are paying as little comission as is humanly possible.

So yes- if you have a very reliable strategy (bookmaking or otherwise) you will pay PC. Will this "eat you alive"? Of course not- obviously.

Eddie the eagle 18 Dec 12:26
Don't get this wrong because I hate the PC , but since when does a 20 % tax on winnings/earnings "eat you alive" ?



It doesn't.

If you take big profits one week and big losses the next, then it hurts. But if each week you sit on a profit then is is more manageable.

It is strange how that has affected my betting tbh. I have a different mentality on whether I sit with a week commencing profit or loss come Tuesday night or If I know I am sitting on a profit or loss that will settle in a certain week.

I know what you mean Alex. Another curious effect is that it makes me mind losing less becuase I think "oh well, at least it gets my percentage up". Obviously this is a ridiculous thought but it does ease the blow of a big loss a little bit.

Of course it will eat you alive you have to factor in a 25% reduction in profits, this is not viable unless you're regularly making books in excess 110%.
Very few could regularly make 110% books as an average.

It's a reduction of typically 17-18% on your OVERALL profit after normal comission. Please explain how this "eats you alive"- because to me keeping 80% of you OVERALL profits seems ok.

Please note that the above would apply equally to anyone making regular profits whatever size of book they were making- even if you were only making a 101% book you would still be keeping 75-80% of your profits.

Sorry BTO- but I think you need to revise your understanding of PC.

aye robot 18 Dec 12:41
I know what you mean Alex. Another curious effect is that it makes me mind losing less becuase I think "oh well, at least it gets my percentage up". Obviously this is a ridiculous thought but it does ease the blow of a big loss a little bit.




Me too. The loss is not 100% it is 80% or thereabouts. I am deffo more gung ho after being caught by the charge.

You cant act as a bookmaker on a betting exchange,you can choose to lay a horse or play a horse,but its impossible to act as a bookmaker - a bookmaker is allowed to have very high margins,on here if you beat 103% your lucky.

Thats why a bookmaker like Mr Dennis is much happier standing at Lingfield as a bookmaker taking bets than logging onto a betting exchange and trying the same.

bto, you need to go away and have a thing about the premium charge because you thinking is a bit flawed.

do bookmakers betting on betfair pay the premium charge?

As far as I know anyone making cosistent enough profits pays. It's likely that bookmakers who are reducing their liabilities here may not be in profit as they are essentially insuring thmeselves, in which case they won't pay.

test

The RP is funded/controlled by bookmakers what do you expect

Of course you can make a profit laying at 101%. If you pay PC then you get to keep 80(ish) percent of this, otherwise you get to keep less.

20% BETTER ODDS 20% PREMIUM CHARGE HOW CAN MAKE PROFIT? MANY HAVE TRIED TO DO AS YOU ARE TRYING TO DO BUT HAVE NOT BEEN TOLD WHETHER IT IS NOT (IMO).

Not a post of your normally high standard,Feck

Must be Feck jr. on dad's computer ?

LOL! Good one, Feck. You really got the gist of the average Sharp mind (TM) trader/fast pic player.

As a bookie ..... No why bookies want a profit no matter which horse wins.
But as a ex bookie who aint scared to take a view about the fav or 2nd fav .... yes its easy ....... but to win you need the two Bs......... Brains and Balls

BTo you are completely wrong.

If I participate in 20 markets per day and make say 0.75% on say 16 of those markets with a exposure per runner of say 1000 then roughly I make £7.12 after 5% commission on 16 races.

Now let's say I lose 1% on the other 4 races, then I lose £10 on those 4.

So at the end of the day I make £7.12 * 16 races = £113.92, minus £10 * 4 races = £40. Net total for the day £73. Get this for 7 days of week = £511. Then pay about 17% PC on the £511 = £424 profit per week.

Now, if you can turnover much more than £1000 per race and still come out at 0.75% profit, you're laughing all the way :-)

But the question was about the early markets.

Because anyone with a tissue likely faces an information disadvantage, they will be more ambitious w/ their prices and may only get matched by idiots or shrewdies early. In my experience you can win taking a series of value punts on an imbalanced book, esp. if you are prepared sometimes to red up later on, but it's virtually imposs. to cover the field in illiquid markets.

I am v. impressed by those who have automated winning systems for early on and am going to devote more attention to technical matters and less to pricing next year.

You're forgetting something, getting it wrong.

I agree re early markets, not enough liquidity.

Thank you ante for getting the point of that post.

aye robot 18 Dec 12:33


So yes- if you have a very reliable strategy (bookmaking or otherwise) you will pay PC. Will this "eat you alive"? Of course not- obviously.

Not entirely true. It's only really those whose profits are generated in very high volume that will incur the charge. So far my strike rate has never been quite high enough to get caught, despite long-term performance being satisfactory. The PC can certainly change your mentality though. I tend to eschew strategies now such as the laying of long-priced outsiders, simply because of this. Whilst I'm generalising somewhat, as a general rule-of-thumb, if your profits are accrued from trading, you are very vulnerable to the charge. If you make your money from higher-risk ventures, you should be okay. ;)