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Still pretty vague but never mind. GL.
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OK I'll post up my exact methodology then.
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Hi Dave,
Found your forum, read it and contents duly noted. Decent of you to put the time in to write that to someone you don't even know. I think I would be bashing my head against a wall trying to find niche angles so will stick to what I have found to give me a better success rate more recently. You are obviously an educated fella and I completely agree that gambling certainly can be a form of investing if handled correctly. I have also tried day trading within a self select isa, failing miserably and losing almost £14k, could never get the timing right and spent £000's on trading charges. I will endeavour to be a more disciplined "investor" from now on! Not that I have much choice in my current financial position |
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Nice one and stay cool!
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I thought I was bad logging in this early!
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spot on mate ---tbh most people who gamble ( bookies ) dont have a clue about the art of investing when gambling
. The shyte you hear ie he's good on the horses etc but he bets in every single race you give jim mcgrath a day in the bookies and tell him to back level stakes in each race -hed almost certainly lose , so what chance have most got . The first time i had a strategy was laying certain horses under 11/4 ( 4.2 betfair ) sp that fitted certain criteria . heres my strategy - lay to lose 1% of bank for the first 6 lays if showing a profit ----lay next six to lose 1% of bank if down my liability increased to 2% of bank for next set of six if showing a profit return to 1% , if not inc to 3% of bank until bank is back up . discipline is key , but with a proven method your bank will grow nicely . if youre not happy with making 3-10% per week ( depending on how good your method is ) you will almost definitely be a loser on here . |
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You must learn to control YOU!!!
I agree with that. There is always a self-destructive streak in the gambler's mind . The "predator's mind" is very baroque indeed. |
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good bit of advice is something i picked up on this forum --
put a little sticker over your balance, so u can never s-ee it and check it every month -this will stop the emotions |
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Like it Zealot
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Dave
If, as you say, gambling is truly investing, if done properly, then surely there would be no argument for it not to be treated as taxable income, like any other form of investment income. |
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when i first heard of this sort of gambling -slowly , slowly fixed liab /stakes etc - i never really thought or ever heard anyth like it so i thought id give it a go
so a couple of years ago --i put 100 quid in my account -and each liability was a fiver ( laying certain horses under 11/4 sp ).After exactly 1 month my bank was a little over 157 . I remember it seemed days and days i was hovering around 135 and it just wouldnt go over --this is the emotion that NEEDS to be taken out . See if you can leave looking at your balance for at least 2 weeks --you must look long term on here -if not you will get beaten alive |
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YOULITTLEBOTTY 30 Nov 20:52
Dave If, as you say, gambling is truly investing, if done properly, then surely there would be no argument for it not to be treated as taxable income, like any other form of investment income. ........................................................................... Yes there would because the betting firms are taxed on their gross profit. This was why there was the change to the betting tax paid previously by betting shop customers. |
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Zealot, the discipline aspect is something I think about everyday. As soon as you let your guard down it's so easy to get caught out.
I'm sure there are other users on betfair for whom managing their emotions is easy. I've always been somewhat temperamental with quite a short fuse (runs in the family). In the past this would be my undoing when betting. My usual route, was to study hard, build up a bank. Have a silly bet that loses and then keep trying to get the money back. It nearly always ended in disaster. |
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exactly the same as me ---but the only way for me is small percentages --whenever ive gone 50 ew / 100 win etc ----its ended in disaster ----love it now tho ---little bit at a time ---its the only way 4 me .
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sorry dave , meant to ask you this --
when you put your prices up , lays / backs , do you just leave em --or are you back n to checkin to see if theyve been matched ? |
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Zealot, I never leave anything up at all. Again it has to do with what makes me tick. I'd be constantly checking to see if I'd been matched so it just wouldn't work.
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lost me there a bit mate -you just take whats on offer then , dave ?
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Quite often yes I will and that will generally have to do with how much time I have available. It will be on my terms though, if it's too low I won't take it! It is surprising just how often the market can be wrong on here and what is the generally available price is longer than the probability of an event occuring.
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i put my lays in before 9am ----my lay price is the next one down available at present ( so if you can back it at 3.75 , my lay would be 3.7 ) to a fixed liability .
if it gets matched it gets matched , if it doesnt i dont know anyway - cheers dave |
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great post
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I suspect the 47.59% refers to a mis-defined ROI. Either that or its to insignificant stakes, or there's money being risked that isn't deemed to be at risk (fallaciously) for one reason or another.
Either way, I have to agree that there's a lot of swiss cheese in the OP. Yes, its a nice piece, but by no means a concise bible of how to win on betfair I'm afraid. There's some major omissions. Dave - I assume your PC position must be quite terrible (based on your ROI). Do you include the PC in your ROI calculations? |
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Treble_Underscore 03 Dec 22:02
I suspect the 47.59% refers to a mis-defined ROI. Either that or its to insignificant stakes, or there's money being risked that isn't deemed to be at risk (fallaciously) for one reason or another. Either way, I have to agree that there's a lot of swiss cheese in the OP. Yes, its a nice piece, but by no means a concise bible of how to win on betfair I'm afraid. There's some major omissions. Dave - I assume your PC position must be quite terrible (based on your ROI). Do you include the PC in your ROI calculations? ............................................................................ Haha, I'd made a very big error in calculating that ROI figure I'm quite happy to admit! I hadn't taken into the account the liability side. It is lower! Look, this wasn't meant to be a cast iron guide to winning on betfair. Pick holes all you want. It is what it is, a guide to helping control the emotional side of betting. It is an approach that works for me. It may not work for all. Like I said, posted in good faith and if anyone can find anything to help themselves in there then fine. If not fine too. Ultimately we all follow our own path in life. |
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Dave i have recently started trading. I can turn a profit through the match markets but i am constantly looking to progress my gambling knowledge. I have found a market i am comfortable with and i se this market as being very profitable to me. I am going to paper trade my strategy for 100 bets at least. I was just wondering dave how much to put on each back, the lay side stake doesn't matter because once ive backed for say £500 and the odds drop to what i expect the lay stake is then reflected on how much i want to win because the odds have gone in my favour.
Sorry if that doesn't make any sense :D |
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u want some, wish I could help, I don't trade except to tie up a position on a football match, which I don't really bet that much on. I'm a backer and layer outright the vast majority of the time.
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Ok mate. Cheers anyway.
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There are very specific for doing what I have said, and many posters agreed it was a good posting as you are well aware. Like I said, your narrowmindedness will be your downfall.
As you ignored my question previously I'll ask it again: Why do you alter the staking on your selections? I'm not going to explain why you shouldn't as you wouldn't listen, but this demonstrates beyond any doubt that you have NOT done the required research to make your betting pay. I don't care whether you stay or go Ken. Your use of language is a constant source of amusement to me. Shudder, Astounded, Amazed. I think it is you who is the sad one if postings on this forum can generate those emotions within you. |
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DaveEdwards 12 Dec 14:45
There are very specific for doing what I have said, and many posters agreed it was a good posting as you are well aware. Like I said, your narrowmindedness will be your downfall. As you ignored my question previously I'll ask it again: Why do you alter the staking on your selections? I'm not going to explain why you shouldn't as you wouldn't listen, but this demonstrates beyond any doubt that you have NOT done the required research to make your betting pay. I don't care whether you stay or go Ken. Your use of language is a constant source of amusement to me. Shudder, Astounded, Amazed. I think it is you who is the sad one if postings on this forum can generate those emotions within you. .................................................................................. What did copying my post from the other thread achieve here exactly? OK, I'll give you another opportunity. Why do you alter your staking? |
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Why do I alter my staking ? Why do you want to know ? Do you consider yourself an authority on staking ? For what it's worth, I think it is obvious.
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If it's obvious to you then that's good enough for me.
I give up with you. You've bored me into submission. Be lucky. |
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If it's obvious to you then that's good enough for me.
I give up with you. You've bored me into submission. Be lucky. Yeah, you're really interesting as well. lol. |
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Whatever.
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