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DaveEdwards
23 Nov 09 21:42
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Date Joined: 06 Sep 07
| Topic/replies: 15,627 | Blogger: DaveEdwards's blog
Hello mate (& anyone else who might bother reading this). It could go on for a while, but I'll try to be as concise as possible.

The number one reason people lose is because of the message we receive about betting. We get the message from a loved one or society at large and it is as follows: Gambling is evil and all gamblers lose. We all got it somewhere or another. Now we easily dismiss the first part. Of course it isn't evil. The second part is more difficult: All gamblers lose. This runs round in your subconscious. It is the thing that makes you repeat non-winning methods and blowing all your winning. You are proving THEM right by acting in this way.

Now think. Who gave you this message? Mother, grandmother, etc etc. What were their qualifications to give you this message? Had they thoroughly investigated sports betting as an investment strategy? Of course they hadn't. They simply lumped all "Gambling events" together, this includes all the silly casino games and made a sweeping generalisation that as we are generally young accept the notion from the people who told us. We know that they did not understand betting. Now what we must do is clearly identify events which it is possible to make a profit on. i.e. a positive expectancy stochastic event. That would apply to the events on betfair. I'm assuming football in your case.

Next step is to get clear in your head that if you approach this as investing and do the research and work to identify positive events then it ceases to be gambling. It is a form of investment equally as valid as something on the stock market. Society doesn't think that buying shares is bad does it???

Next, get studying. Coose your sport and do your research, read EVERY book you can find. Even go a bit off the beaten track so to speak. Find angles and approaches not used by the masses. When you feel that you've got them, start working with paper bets. If you can't amke a profit on paper it is a MONSTER fact you'll not do it with real money. Once you get positive then is the time to start with real money. Get a bank together. Use a small amount, that way if you have a bad day it won't hurt too much. Personally I use 1%. Some may think that is small, but if you are good it will grow. You could use 2%, but I wouldn't go any higher.

Now when you start betting, 1st thing to remember is that you completely reject the notion of gambling this is INVESTING.

OK now you have a strategy, a bank and you know that all gamblers don't have to lose if they do the necessary work.

Next, you must record all bets in a profit and lose account, but you also got to record something else. How you FEEL. Sounds a bit silly, but read on. What you have got to do is record how you feel when you win, how you feel when you lose and how you feel about your next bet in each scenario. Also how you feel at the end of each day (win or lose). What you are trying to do here is identify the times when you feel bad and it has an effect on your investments. Patterns will emerge. Learn what makes you feel bad and act to minimise that risk in future.

If you hit three losers on the trot, stop for the day. There is now way you are in the same frame of mind working out your next bet as you are had you not just backed three losers. take a break and reflect. Then, come back the next day refreshed having seen where you went wrong.

You must learn to control YOU!!!

There is no such thing as luck or anything else. Control yourself and do the necessary work. The more you get into it the less of a buzz it becomes, even boring, but watch that balance grow in the top right hand corner.

Any questions If It's Wet, just come find me.
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Report thebigdollopsright November 23, 2009 9:45 PM GMT
if its wet get me out of here
Report Rictus1 November 23, 2009 9:52 PM GMT
Great write up, i read it as soon as you posted it as i was keeping an eye out for something. Im looking at starting afresh maybe start of December with a £1,000 bank and no more than 2% per bet,with an aim of hopefully increasing the bank so that 2% bets become larger so the winnings are. Can i ask how much your bank is and p/l for the past 3 months dave? Do you think im out of control at 18?
Report I.quit.my.job November 23, 2009 9:53 PM GMT
I'm nicking your write-up Dave, good post
Report If Its Wet Drink It November 23, 2009 9:57 PM GMT
Firstly, let me thank you for all the help you've given me.

That is a very powerful write up and there's ALOT i can relate to.

I'll have a think of what you've just said, sleep on it and get back to you.

There's alot of points in there which i strongly agree with.

It's the betting saying (I've heard on here) which i kidded myself that i had - Patiences + Discipline = Profits.
Report madlung November 23, 2009 10:00 PM GMT
good post dave,
i tip my hat to u, for the time u have taken to write some good advice.
Report DaveEdwards November 23, 2009 10:01 PM GMT
Rictus.

I don't think you are out of control. But you need to get a grip of yourself. Take a little break and think about what is in my posting. Do your homework too. You were lucky tonight, best not to get yourself into that position again.

You can ask about my P/L, but that isn't something that I'm going to post. What I will do though is share my Return On Investment or ROI if you prefer. It is 47.59% at last calculation. For every pound I invest I earn 47.59p and long may it continue!

I.quit.my.job.

What were you planning to do with this posting?
Report If Its Wet Drink It November 23, 2009 10:04 PM GMT
' Personally I use 1%. Some may think that is small, but if you are good it will grow. You could use 2%, but I wouldn't go any higher. '

I'm into my Tennis betting, that's going to take some thinking.
Report DaveEdwards November 23, 2009 10:09 PM GMT
It might feel low, but what you have got to remember is that your number one priority is to protect your bank. You cannot take undue risks. Don't forget about all these upsets that happen in tennis too! Retiring when about to win. Not for me!
Report kenilworth November 23, 2009 10:34 PM GMT
your number one priority is to protect your bank. You cannot take undue risks.

Dave, seriously the only way you can do those things is not to bet.
Report I.quit.my.job November 23, 2009 10:40 PM GMT
47.59% that's remarkable Dave, have you only had one bet this year at 1/2 ;)

I've just saved it mate for reference......I'm piecing together everything I've learnt in the past few months and putting it all into a strategy.........To attack the markets once again with more firepower and more importantly a clearer mind.
Report lippy November 23, 2009 11:02 PM GMT
Thats the introduction to my ebook done , cheers
Report Lusitano71 November 24, 2009 12:51 AM GMT
all of Dave Edwards intro is right here but with a little bit more indepth :D 207 pages

"Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas....very good to the starting trader


"The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb... excelent for everyone

hope i've helped
Report DaveEdwards November 24, 2009 5:09 AM GMT
lippy, if you are going to rob this, then do I get a credit for it and a free copy???
Report DaveEdwards November 24, 2009 5:11 AM GMT
Lusitano71 24 Nov 01:51


all of Dave Edwards intro is right here but with a little bit more indepth 207 pages

"Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas....very good to the starting trader


"The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb... excelent for everyone

hope i've helped

..............................................................

I'm certainly not claiming this to be the final word on the subject and I'm sure there is work out there that goes an awful lot further than this. Just trying to offer a few pointers to someone I'd promised to try to help!
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 24, 2009 5:45 AM GMT
Dave
I know your heart is in the right place, but your advice is just generalised balderdash.Good gamblers are born not made.
It's all about maths really and if you hae no propensity for that subject, then you will never be a successful gambler ( sorry investor).
Report DaveEdwards November 24, 2009 5:50 AM GMT
FINE AS FROG HAIR 24 Nov 06:45


Dave
I know your heart is in the right place, but your advice is just generalised balderdash.Good gamblers are born not made.
It's all about maths really and if you hae no propensity for that subject, then you will never be a successful gambler ( sorry investor).

.................................................................

Interseting point my friend, but that is bullsh!t.
Report kohaku November 24, 2009 7:21 AM GMT
I admit I have been naughty over the years....I'll go and stand in the corner.
Report kenilworth November 24, 2009 7:44 AM GMT
47.59% is a figure that is hard to believe, equivelent to a 75% strike rate backing evens chances. I wonder how you arrive at that figure.
Report RonaldinhoRAT November 24, 2009 8:47 AM GMT
The number one reason people lose is because of the message we receive about betting

I'm no psychologist but i would have that very near the bottom of my list, i think granny would of been right saying all gamblers lose/ the only winners are the bookies. 10 years ago on the high st the markets would have 15-30% overrounds, now you have 100% books which should clearly demonstrate the opportunities.

Personally i would have strategy as the number one reason people win/lose, but your comments are'nt to help me and i hope they are useful to wet.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 24, 2009 9:05 AM GMT
What exactly is bullshine Dave ?.
You don't need mathematical skills to be a good gambler ?
You can't teach a non-mathematical person to be a natural at maths ?
You're not talking generalised balderdash?
Your heart is not in the right place ?
Please enlighten me, if you have the time and the patience.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 24, 2009 9:07 AM GMT
A few contradictory doucble negatives there Dave, but please overlook, if you can.
Feekin conversing on a computer drives me nuts sometimes.
Report RonaldinhoRAT November 24, 2009 9:29 AM GMT
frog,

I agree it is too generalised for me, but hes trying to help someone and maybe it will! (i doubt it)

I have to disagree that you need to be good at maths, i have a average C grade G.C.S.E. but would put myself in the top % of winners here, while basic maths is useful its all about

strategy. (and im calling Dave too general lol)
Report kenilworth November 24, 2009 10:41 AM GMT
FINE AS FROG HAIR 24 Nov 10:05


What exactly is bullshine Dave ?.
You don't need mathematical skills to be a good gambler ?
You can't teach a non-mathematical person to be a natural at maths ?
You're not talking generalised balderdash?
Your heart is not in the right place ?
Please enlighten me, if you have the time and the patience.


All that is needed is a crystal ball.
Report DaveEdwards November 24, 2009 6:57 PM GMT
I was just in the middle of typing a large response, but I've deleted it. I can't be bothered responding. This thread was specifically aimed at If It's Wet in order to help. This approach works for me and has been posted in good faith.

If anyone doesn't like it, I couldn't care less.

To Kenilworth, I do quite often back in large odds ranges, I'm not really a football backer, albeit I think I know more about it than most who post on the football forum. I stand by the roi.
Report DaveEdwards November 24, 2009 7:13 PM GMT
If fact, thinking about it apart from one specific thread that I'll go back to on certain days I'm finished with the forums now.

You try to help, offer constructive advice and you get what in return?

Adios amigos!
Report If Its Wet Drink It November 24, 2009 7:31 PM GMT
Dave, this thread was a success as I've took your thoughts on board and I will be betting with them in mind.
Report kenilworth November 24, 2009 10:25 PM GMT
Dave Edwards, the only way an ROI of +47.59 can be achieved is over a short term on big prices, not even either, but both. If you want to go off in a sulk because it is queried, then you must do that.
Report Zola's Back Heel November 24, 2009 10:31 PM GMT
Strategy. Value. Paper. Timing. Consistancy. Discipline. Realism.
Report kenilworth November 24, 2009 10:34 PM GMT
Strategy. Value. Paper. Timing. Consistancy. Discipline. Realism.

Paper ?
Timing ?
Report RonaldinhoRAT November 24, 2009 10:39 PM GMT
If Its Wet Drink It 24 Nov 20:31

"Dave, this thread was a success as I've took your thoughts on board and I will be betting with them in mind."

really means "yeah yeah whatever".
Report Zola's Back Heel November 24, 2009 10:40 PM GMT
always paper trade first.
once playing for real, timing is a major factor.
Report kenilworth November 24, 2009 10:45 PM GMT
Paper trading is a waste of time, because it doesn't exist, only in the mind. Test only with money, even minimum stakes, it concentrates the mind.
Report Zola's Back Heel November 24, 2009 10:46 PM GMT
well on that we'll have to disagree kev.
Report kenilworth November 24, 2009 10:58 PM GMT
Zola, please don't call me Kev as it just makes you seem silly.
Report no moves November 25, 2009 1:19 AM GMT
I thought the orignal post was pretty long, didn't it come down to, be disciplined and don't chase your losses but did it reallly tell you how to make a profit on the exchange in the first place?

I would suggest if you took davedwards advice to stay disciplined you would'nt bet atoll because you do not have an edge; in those circumstances betting surely could only ever make you poor. So Daves advice must be if I understand it, not to bet.
Report Roman.Totale November 25, 2009 3:46 AM GMT
Is this the Dave Edwards the Colossus of the Stopwatch?
Report Zola's Back Heel November 25, 2009 8:13 AM GMT
The lady doth protest too much?
Report kenilworth November 25, 2009 10:12 AM GMT
once playing for real, timing is a major factor

Zola, a vague sort of comment. Could you please explain what you mean by 'timing is a major factor' ?
Report Zola's Back Heel November 25, 2009 10:44 AM GMT
Historical data for strategy testing is not the same as placing bets on an evolving market.
Once you think you have a good basis for selections, watching the market is crucial.
Going in at specific trigger points or drip feeding with larger orders all requires time and timing.
Report kenilworth November 25, 2009 11:50 AM GMT
Still pretty vague but never mind. GL.
Report Zola's Back Heel November 25, 2009 11:55 AM GMT
OK I'll post up my exact methodology then.
Report BJG November 29, 2009 10:31 PM GMT
.
Report CheesyBoy November 29, 2009 10:44 PM GMT
Hi Dave,

Found your forum, read it and contents duly noted. Decent of you to put the time in to write that to someone you don't even know. I think I would be bashing my head against a wall trying to find niche angles so will stick to what I have found to give me a better success rate more recently. You are obviously an educated fella and I completely agree that gambling certainly can be a form of investing if handled correctly. I have also tried day trading within a self select isa, failing miserably and losing almost £14k, could never get the timing right and spent £000's on trading charges.

I will endeavour to be a more disciplined "investor" from now on! Not that I have much choice in my current financial position
Report DaveEdwards November 30, 2009 5:52 AM GMT
Nice one and stay cool!
Report CheesyBoy November 30, 2009 9:19 AM GMT
I thought I was bad logging in this early!
Report Glasgow Brian November 30, 2009 9:50 AM GMT
spot on mate ---tbh most people who gamble ( bookies ) dont have a clue about the art of investing when gambling
. The shyte you hear ie he's good on the horses etc but he bets in every single race
you give jim mcgrath a day in the bookies and tell him to back level stakes in each race -hed almost certainly lose , so what chance have most got .
The first time i had a strategy was laying certain horses under 11/4 ( 4.2 betfair ) sp that fitted certain criteria .
heres my strategy - lay to lose 1% of bank for the first 6 lays
if showing a profit ----lay next six to lose 1% of bank
if down my liability increased to 2% of bank for next set of six
if showing a profit return to 1% , if not inc to 3% of bank until bank is back up .
discipline is key , but with a proven method your bank will grow nicely .
if youre not happy with making 3-10% per week ( depending on how good your method is ) you will almost definitely be a loser on here .
Report ieff7 November 30, 2009 1:06 PM GMT
You must learn to control YOU!!!
I agree with that. There is always a self-destructive streak in the gambler's mind .

The "predator's mind" is very baroque indeed.
Report ZEALOT November 30, 2009 7:01 PM GMT
good bit of advice is something i picked up on this forum --
put a little sticker over your balance, so u can never s-ee it and check it every month -this will stop the emotions
Report DaveEdwards November 30, 2009 7:13 PM GMT
Like it Zealot
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY November 30, 2009 7:52 PM GMT
Dave
If, as you say, gambling is truly investing, if done properly, then surely there would be no argument for it not to be treated as taxable income, like any other form of investment income.
Report ZEALOT November 30, 2009 8:06 PM GMT
when i first heard of this sort of gambling -slowly , slowly fixed liab /stakes etc - i never really thought or ever heard anyth like it so i thought id give it a go
so a couple of years ago --i put 100 quid in my account -and each liability was a fiver ( laying certain horses under 11/4 sp ).After exactly 1 month my bank was a little over 157 .
I remember it seemed days and days i was hovering around 135 and it just wouldnt go over --this is the emotion that NEEDS to be taken out .
See if you can leave looking at your balance for at least 2 weeks --you must look long term on here -if not you will get beaten alive
Report DaveEdwards November 30, 2009 8:33 PM GMT
YOULITTLEBOTTY 30 Nov 20:52


Dave
If, as you say, gambling is truly investing, if done properly, then surely there would be no argument for it not to be treated as taxable income, like any other form of investment income.

...........................................................................

Yes there would because the betting firms are taxed on their gross profit. This was why there was the change to the betting tax paid previously by betting shop customers.
Report DaveEdwards November 30, 2009 8:38 PM GMT
Zealot, the discipline aspect is something I think about everyday. As soon as you let your guard down it's so easy to get caught out.
I'm sure there are other users on betfair for whom managing their emotions is easy. I've always been somewhat temperamental with quite a short fuse (runs in the family). In the past this would be my undoing when betting. My usual route, was to study hard, build up a bank. Have a silly bet that loses and then keep trying to get the money back. It nearly always ended in disaster.
Report ZEALOT November 30, 2009 8:45 PM GMT
exactly the same as me ---but the only way for me is small percentages --whenever ive gone 50 ew / 100 win etc ----its ended in disaster ----love it now tho ---little bit at a time ---its the only way 4 me .
Report ZEALOT November 30, 2009 8:46 PM GMT
sorry dave , meant to ask you this --
when you put your prices up , lays / backs , do you just leave em --or are you back n to checkin to see if theyve been matched ?
Report DaveEdwards November 30, 2009 9:09 PM GMT
Zealot, I never leave anything up at all. Again it has to do with what makes me tick. I'd be constantly checking to see if I'd been matched so it just wouldn't work.
Report ZEALOT November 30, 2009 9:17 PM GMT
lost me there a bit mate -you just take whats on offer then , dave ?
Report DaveEdwards November 30, 2009 9:49 PM GMT
Quite often yes I will and that will generally have to do with how much time I have available. It will be on my terms though, if it's too low I won't take it! It is surprising just how often the market can be wrong on here and what is the generally available price is longer than the probability of an event occuring.
Report ZEALOT November 30, 2009 9:56 PM GMT
i put my lays in before 9am ----my lay price is the next one down available at present ( so if you can back it at 3.75 , my lay would be 3.7 ) to a fixed liability .
if it gets matched it gets matched , if it doesnt i dont know anyway -
cheers dave
Report Glasgow Brian December 3, 2009 6:00 PM GMT
great post
Report Treble_Underscore December 3, 2009 9:02 PM GMT
I suspect the 47.59% refers to a mis-defined ROI. Either that or its to insignificant stakes, or there's money being risked that isn't deemed to be at risk (fallaciously) for one reason or another.

Either way, I have to agree that there's a lot of swiss cheese in the OP. Yes, its a nice piece, but by no means a concise bible of how to win on betfair I'm afraid. There's some major omissions.

Dave - I assume your PC position must be quite terrible (based on your ROI). Do you include the PC in your ROI calculations?
Report DaveEdwards December 3, 2009 9:11 PM GMT
Treble_Underscore 03 Dec 22:02


I suspect the 47.59% refers to a mis-defined ROI. Either that or its to insignificant stakes, or there's money being risked that isn't deemed to be at risk (fallaciously) for one reason or another.

Either way, I have to agree that there's a lot of swiss cheese in the OP. Yes, its a nice piece, but by no means a concise bible of how to win on betfair I'm afraid. There's some major omissions.

Dave - I assume your PC position must be quite terrible (based on your ROI). Do you include the PC in your ROI calculations?


............................................................................

Haha, I'd made a very big error in calculating that ROI figure I'm quite happy to admit! I hadn't taken into the account the liability side. It is lower!

Look, this wasn't meant to be a cast iron guide to winning on betfair. Pick holes all you want. It is what it is, a guide to helping control the emotional side of betting. It is an approach that works for me. It may not work for all. Like I said, posted in good faith and if anyone can find anything to help themselves in there then fine. If not fine too. Ultimately we all follow our own path in life.
Report u want some December 3, 2009 9:12 PM GMT
Dave i have recently started trading. I can turn a profit through the match markets but i am constantly looking to progress my gambling knowledge. I have found a market i am comfortable with and i se this market as being very profitable to me. I am going to paper trade my strategy for 100 bets at least. I was just wondering dave how much to put on each back, the lay side stake doesn't matter because once ive backed for say £500 and the odds drop to what i expect the lay stake is then reflected on how much i want to win because the odds have gone in my favour.

Sorry if that doesn't make any sense :D
Report DaveEdwards December 3, 2009 9:18 PM GMT
u want some, wish I could help, I don't trade except to tie up a position on a football match, which I don't really bet that much on. I'm a backer and layer outright the vast majority of the time.
Report u want some December 3, 2009 9:20 PM GMT
Ok mate. Cheers anyway.
Report kenilworth December 12, 2009 4:03 PM GMT
There are very specific for doing what I have said, and many posters agreed it was a good posting as you are well aware. Like I said, your narrowmindedness will be your downfall.

As you ignored my question previously I'll ask it again:
Why do you alter the staking on your selections? I'm not going to explain why you shouldn't as you wouldn't listen, but this demonstrates beyond any doubt that you have NOT done the required research to make your betting pay.

I don't care whether you stay or go Ken.

Your use of language is a constant source of amusement to me. Shudder, Astounded, Amazed. I think it is you who is the sad one if postings on this forum can generate those emotions within you.
Report DaveEdwards December 12, 2009 5:45 PM GMT
DaveEdwards 12 Dec 14:45


There are very specific for doing what I have said, and many posters agreed it was a good posting as you are well aware. Like I said, your narrowmindedness will be your downfall.

As you ignored my question previously I'll ask it again:
Why do you alter the staking on your selections? I'm not going to explain why you shouldn't as you wouldn't listen, but this demonstrates beyond any doubt that you have NOT done the required research to make your betting pay.

I don't care whether you stay or go Ken.

Your use of language is a constant source of amusement to me. Shudder, Astounded, Amazed. I think it is you who is the sad one if postings on this forum can generate those emotions within you.

..................................................................................

What did copying my post from the other thread achieve here exactly?

OK, I'll give you another opportunity. Why do you alter your staking?
Report kenilworth December 12, 2009 7:08 PM GMT
Why do I alter my staking ? Why do you want to know ? Do you consider yourself an authority on staking ? For what it's worth, I think it is obvious.
Report DaveEdwards December 12, 2009 7:28 PM GMT
If it's obvious to you then that's good enough for me.

I give up with you. You've bored me into submission. Be lucky.
Report kenilworth December 12, 2009 7:43 PM GMT
If it's obvious to you then that's good enough for me.

I give up with you. You've bored me into submission. Be lucky.


Yeah, you're really interesting as well. lol.
Report DaveEdwards December 12, 2009 8:14 PM GMT
Whatever.
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