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DaveEdwards
23 Nov 09 21:42
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Date Joined: 06 Sep 07
| Topic/replies: 11,728 | Blogger: DaveEdwards's blog
Hello mate (& anyone else who might bother reading this). It could go on for a while, but I'll try to be as concise as possible.

The number one reason people lose is because of the message we receive about betting. We get the message from a loved one or society at large and it is as follows: Gambling is evil and all gamblers lose. We all got it somewhere or another. Now we easily dismiss the first part. Of course it isn't evil. The second part is more difficult: All gamblers lose. This runs round in your subconscious. It is the thing that makes you repeat non-winning methods and blowing all your winning. You are proving THEM right by acting in this way.

Now think. Who gave you this message? Mother, grandmother, etc etc. What were their qualifications to give you this message? Had they thoroughly investigated sports betting as an investment strategy? Of course they hadn't. They simply lumped all "Gambling events" together, this includes all the silly casino games and made a sweeping generalisation that as we are generally young accept the notion from the people who told us. We know that they did not understand betting. Now what we must do is clearly identify events which it is possible to make a profit on. i.e. a positive expectancy stochastic event. That would apply to the events on betfair. I'm assuming football in your case.

Next step is to get clear in your head that if you approach this as investing and do the research and work to identify positive events then it ceases to be gambling. It is a form of investment equally as valid as something on the stock market. Society doesn't think that buying shares is bad does it???

Next, get studying. Coose your sport and do your research, read EVERY book you can find. Even go a bit off the beaten track so to speak. Find angles and approaches not used by the masses. When you feel that you've got them, start working with paper bets. If you can't amke a profit on paper it is a MONSTER fact you'll not do it with real money. Once you get positive then is the time to start with real money. Get a bank together. Use a small amount, that way if you have a bad day it won't hurt too much. Personally I use 1%. Some may think that is small, but if you are good it will grow. You could use 2%, but I wouldn't go any higher.

Now when you start betting, 1st thing to remember is that you completely reject the notion of gambling this is INVESTING.

OK now you have a strategy, a bank and you know that all gamblers don't have to lose if they do the necessary work.

Next, you must record all bets in a profit and lose account, but you also got to record something else. How you FEEL. Sounds a bit silly, but read on. What you have got to do is record how you feel when you win, how you feel when you lose and how you feel about your next bet in each scenario. Also how you feel at the end of each day (win or lose). What you are trying to do here is identify the times when you feel bad and it has an effect on your investments. Patterns will emerge. Learn what makes you feel bad and act to minimise that risk in future.

If you hit three losers on the trot, stop for the day. There is now way you are in the same frame of mind working out your next bet as you are had you not just backed three losers. take a break and reflect. Then, come back the next day refreshed having seen where you went wrong.

You must learn to control YOU!!!

There is no such thing as luck or anything else. Control yourself and do the necessary work. The more you get into it the less of a buzz it becomes, even boring, but watch that balance grow in the top right hand corner.

Any questions If It's Wet, just come find me.

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Replies: 71
By:
thebigdollopsright
When: 23 Nov 09 21:45
if its wet get me out of here
By:
Rictus1
When: 23 Nov 09 21:52
Great write up, i read it as soon as you posted it as i was keeping an eye out for something. Im looking at starting afresh maybe start of December with a £1,000 bank and no more than 2% per bet,with an aim of hopefully increasing the bank so that 2% bets become larger so the winnings are. Can i ask how much your bank is and p/l for the past 3 months dave? Do you think im out of control at 18?
By:
I.quit.my.job
When: 23 Nov 09 21:53
I'm nicking your write-up Dave, good post
By:
If Its Wet Drink It
When: 23 Nov 09 21:57
Firstly, let me thank you for all the help you've given me.

That is a very powerful write up and there's ALOT i can relate to.

I'll have a think of what you've just said, sleep on it and get back to you.

There's alot of points in there which i strongly agree with.

It's the betting saying (I've heard on here) which i kidded myself that i had - Patiences + Discipline = Profits.
By:
madlung
When: 23 Nov 09 22:00
good post dave,
i tip my hat to u, for the time u have taken to write some good advice.
By:
DaveEdwards
When: 23 Nov 09 22:01
Rictus.

I don't think you are out of control. But you need to get a grip of yourself. Take a little break and think about what is in my posting. Do your homework too. You were lucky tonight, best not to get yourself into that position again.

You can ask about my P/L, but that isn't something that I'm going to post. What I will do though is share my Return On Investment or ROI if you prefer. It is 47.59% at last calculation. For every pound I invest I earn 47.59p and long may it continue!

I.quit.my.job.

What were you planning to do with this posting?
By:
If Its Wet Drink It
When: 23 Nov 09 22:04
' Personally I use 1%. Some may think that is small, but if you are good it will grow. You could use 2%, but I wouldn't go any higher. '

I'm into my Tennis betting, that's going to take some thinking.
By:
DaveEdwards
When: 23 Nov 09 22:09
It might feel low, but what you have got to remember is that your number one priority is to protect your bank. You cannot take undue risks. Don't forget about all these upsets that happen in tennis too! Retiring when about to win. Not for me!
By:
kenilworth
When: 23 Nov 09 22:34
your number one priority is to protect your bank. You cannot take undue risks.

Dave, seriously the only way you can do those things is not to bet.
By:
I.quit.my.job
When: 23 Nov 09 22:40
47.59% that's remarkable Dave, have you only had one bet this year at 1/2 ;)

I've just saved it mate for reference......I'm piecing together everything I've learnt in the past few months and putting it all into a strategy.........To attack the markets once again with more firepower and more importantly a clearer mind.
By:
lippy
When: 23 Nov 09 23:02
Thats the introduction to my ebook done , cheers
By:
Lusitano71
When: 24 Nov 09 00:51
all of Dave Edwards intro is right here but with a little bit more indepth :D 207 pages

"Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas....very good to the starting trader


"The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb... excelent for everyone

hope i've helped
By:
DaveEdwards
When: 24 Nov 09 05:09
lippy, if you are going to rob this, then do I get a credit for it and a free copy???
By:
DaveEdwards
When: 24 Nov 09 05:11
Lusitano71 24 Nov 01:51


all of Dave Edwards intro is right here but with a little bit more indepth 207 pages

"Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas....very good to the starting trader


"The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb... excelent for everyone

hope i've helped

..............................................................

I'm certainly not claiming this to be the final word on the subject and I'm sure there is work out there that goes an awful lot further than this. Just trying to offer a few pointers to someone I'd promised to try to help!
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 24 Nov 09 05:45
Dave
I know your heart is in the right place, but your advice is just generalised balderdash.Good gamblers are born not made.
It's all about maths really and if you hae no propensity for that subject, then you will never be a successful gambler ( sorry investor).
By:
DaveEdwards
When: 24 Nov 09 05:50
FINE AS FROG HAIR 24 Nov 06:45


Dave
I know your heart is in the right place, but your advice is just generalised balderdash.Good gamblers are born not made.
It's all about maths really and if you hae no propensity for that subject, then you will never be a successful gambler ( sorry investor).

.................................................................

Interseting point my friend, but that is bullsh!t.
By:
kohaku
When: 24 Nov 09 07:21
I admit I have been naughty over the years....I'll go and stand in the corner.
By:
kenilworth
When: 24 Nov 09 07:44
47.59% is a figure that is hard to believe, equivelent to a 75% strike rate backing evens chances. I wonder how you arrive at that figure.
By:
RonaldinhoRAT
When: 24 Nov 09 08:47
The number one reason people lose is because of the message we receive about betting

I'm no psychologist but i would have that very near the bottom of my list, i think granny would of been right saying all gamblers lose/ the only winners are the bookies. 10 years ago on the high st the markets would have 15-30% overrounds, now you have 100% books which should clearly demonstrate the opportunities.

Personally i would have strategy as the number one reason people win/lose, but your comments are'nt to help me and i hope they are useful to wet.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 24 Nov 09 09:05
What exactly is bullshine Dave ?.
You don't need mathematical skills to be a good gambler ?
You can't teach a non-mathematical person to be a natural at maths ?
You're not talking generalised balderdash?
Your heart is not in the right place ?
Please enlighten me, if you have the time and the patience.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 24 Nov 09 09:07
A few contradictory doucble negatives there Dave, but please overlook, if you can.
Feekin conversing on a computer drives me nuts sometimes.
By:
RonaldinhoRAT
When: 24 Nov 09 09:29
frog,

I agree it is too generalised for me, but hes trying to help someone and maybe it will! (i doubt it)

I have to disagree that you need to be good at maths, i have a average C grade G.C.S.E. but would put myself in the top % of winners here, while basic maths is useful its all about

strategy. (and im calling Dave too general lol)
By:
kenilworth
When: 24 Nov 09 10:41
FINE AS FROG HAIR 24 Nov 10:05


What exactly is bullshine Dave ?.
You don't need mathematical skills to be a good gambler ?
You can't teach a non-mathematical person to be a natural at maths ?
You're not talking generalised balderdash?
Your heart is not in the right place ?
Please enlighten me, if you have the time and the patience.


All that is needed is a crystal ball.
By:
DaveEdwards
When: 24 Nov 09 18:57
I was just in the middle of typing a large response, but I've deleted it. I can't be bothered responding. This thread was specifically aimed at If It's Wet in order to help. This approach works for me and has been posted in good faith.

If anyone doesn't like it, I couldn't care less.

To Kenilworth, I do quite often back in large odds ranges, I'm not really a football backer, albeit I think I know more about it than most who post on the football forum. I stand by the roi.
By:
DaveEdwards
When: 24 Nov 09 19:13
If fact, thinking about it apart from one specific thread that I'll go back to on certain days I'm finished with the forums now.

You try to help, offer constructive advice and you get what in return?

Adios amigos!
By:
If Its Wet Drink It
When: 24 Nov 09 19:31
Dave, this thread was a success as I've took your thoughts on board and I will be betting with them in mind.
By:
kenilworth
When: 24 Nov 09 22:25
Dave Edwards, the only way an ROI of +47.59 can be achieved is over a short term on big prices, not even either, but both. If you want to go off in a sulk because it is queried, then you must do that.
By:
Zola's Back Heel
When: 24 Nov 09 22:31
Strategy. Value. Paper. Timing. Consistancy. Discipline. Realism.
By:
kenilworth
When: 24 Nov 09 22:34
Strategy. Value. Paper. Timing. Consistancy. Discipline. Realism.

Paper ?
Timing ?
By:
RonaldinhoRAT
When: 24 Nov 09 22:39
If Its Wet Drink It 24 Nov 20:31

"Dave, this thread was a success as I've took your thoughts on board and I will be betting with them in mind."

really means "yeah yeah whatever".
By:
Zola's Back Heel
When: 24 Nov 09 22:40
always paper trade first.
once playing for real, timing is a major factor.
By:
kenilworth
When: 24 Nov 09 22:45
Paper trading is a waste of time, because it doesn't exist, only in the mind. Test only with money, even minimum stakes, it concentrates the mind.
By:
Zola's Back Heel
When: 24 Nov 09 22:46
well on that we'll have to disagree kev.
By:
kenilworth
When: 24 Nov 09 22:58
Zola, please don't call me Kev as it just makes you seem silly.
By:
no moves
When: 25 Nov 09 01:19
I thought the orignal post was pretty long, didn't it come down to, be disciplined and don't chase your losses but did it reallly tell you how to make a profit on the exchange in the first place?

I would suggest if you took davedwards advice to stay disciplined you would'nt bet atoll because you do not have an edge; in those circumstances betting surely could only ever make you poor. So Daves advice must be if I understand it, not to bet.
By:
Roman.Totale
When: 25 Nov 09 03:46
Is this the Dave Edwards the Colossus of the Stopwatch?
By:
Zola's Back Heel
When: 25 Nov 09 08:13
The lady doth protest too much?
By:
kenilworth
When: 25 Nov 09 10:12
once playing for real, timing is a major factor

Zola, a vague sort of comment. Could you please explain what you mean by 'timing is a major factor' ?
By:
Zola's Back Heel
When: 25 Nov 09 10:44
Historical data for strategy testing is not the same as placing bets on an evolving market.
Once you think you have a good basis for selections, watching the market is crucial.
Going in at specific trigger points or drip feeding with larger orders all requires time and timing.
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