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crispyman
12 Nov 09 08:09
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 May 08
| Topic/replies: 483 | Blogger: crispyman's blog
has anyone ever taken a huge sample of races and able to do a quick check on it?

if not what is the easiest way to take a sample of lots of races?

i was looking into match bets and my strategy tells me that a 33/1 will finish ahead of a 66/1 shot 66.3% of the time and a 6/1 should finish ahead of a 10/1 shot 61.1% of the time.

I can give more examples if you want but has anyone got a large sample that they can easily check, or tell me how i can do so?

thanks in advance
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Report Lame Runner November 12, 2009 11:36 AM GMT
I think I have looked at this in the past with a fairly large sample. I can't rememberr my findings exactly but can say that your formula is overestimating the chances of the shorter odds horse. Provided the short odds horse is not very short, a more accurate figure is probably about (your estimated% +50%)/2.
Report crispyman November 12, 2009 11:10 PM GMT
cheers do u wanna drop me a mail at**zer08@live.ie and i'll explain my formulae and reasoning to you?
Report crispyman December 8, 2009 10:56 AM GMT
can anyone else please give me more info on this as its very important to my gambling?

im not tryin to rob info from anyone, if nothing else even give me a few tips on the easiest way to get my own sample of races together?
Report Emms December 8, 2009 1:27 PM GMT
your easiest source would probably be the custom report section of the adrianmassey website. This would give you the finishing positions and SP's

If you wanted to link those to betfair sp's then also download from http://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/prices/
Report freddiewilliams December 8, 2009 1:41 PM GMT
forget about stats
watch all races
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