Picking the best of the prices for profit hopefully.

Loss of 2 points
Balance + 18.32 points from 34 bets.
ROI = + 26.7%

I'll get my own thread if you like, but I was looking for a bit of early value in the Championship and had to get a bit of the the 6.2 about doncaster at sheff utd. Last 6 games sheff 8 pts 12-12, donnie 6 points 8-8, sheff lost 2 donnie lost 1 (and they've each played 3 of the same teams in that sequence with not much discernible difference in the other three). it's a local derby and they both won at each others ground last season, donnie draw a bit too much for my liking but can't ignore the fact they are nearly 8 times the price of the hosts.

Re leagues 1 & 2, 19 of 24 home sides are odds against despite the away sides being away for the 2nd time this week. Not narrowed it down yet but reckon there is some value in the homes lurking here

Crescit, happy for you to join in with your opinion. For the record, I see the Division 1 as the toughest league to crack and to coin a phrase, ''anyone can beat anyone''. At the moment I am looking at a few matches in all leagues, but I need to establish( in my mind ) the right prices and till I see some things in tomorrows RP, I can't do that. My early price fancies are Chesterfield at 5/6 who I think should be a lot shorter, Plymouth at 6/4, and Derby at 7/5. GL.

Derby??? You are more optimistic than me then and I am a long term season ticket holder, we have a full team out injured the last I heard...

Saturday's ready yet K?

Bet 35; Swansea v QPR to draw: 1.5 points at 12/5 (HS)
Bet 36: Watford[/b] v Cardiff: 2 points at 3.2
Bet 37: Darlington v [b]Macclesfield : 1.5 points at 3.35
Bet 38: Port Vale v Bournemouth[/b]: 2 points at 2.78
Bet 39: Torquay v[b] Bury: 2 points at 2.84
Bet 40: [b]Reading[/b] v Middleborough: 2 points at 2/1 (HS)

11 points staked.

Reyes, please don't back them !

Bet 41: Derby v Sheff Wed: 2 points at 2.98
Bet 42: Exeter v Hartlepool: 2 ponts at 2.80

4 points staked

Plymouth lay at 2.32 to lose 2.5 points.

Profit of 0.42 points
Balance + 18.74 points from 42 bets.
ROI = + 22.3%

Correction: ROI is +21.7% from 43 bets (stakes 87.5 points)

i think u mean a 0.91 pt loss b4 comish

i lost a point on donny, should have done a draw no bet

Correction, thank you sugarray.
Loss of 1.48 points on the day :)
Balance + 16.74 points from 42 bets.
ROI = + 19.1%

Bet 44: Rangers v Celtic: back Rangers at 2.86 stake 2 points

yeah, baby!

its a nap,comon the bears

Profit of 3.53 points on the day
Balance + 20.27 points from 44 bets.
Total Staked 89.5 points
ROI = + 22.6%

were they 2.86 before kick off??! :0

Tobermory, at the time I posted (11.40 am), Rangers were 2.86. I don't know what price they were at kickoff time (12.30 pm)

( i meant pre match really) very good bet as i'd have thought Rangers/Celtic virtually equal so 2.20-2.30- would be the price for the home team

I'm not sure what you mean by 'prematch' as 11.40 am was 50 mins before kickoff, and that was when I backed them. I agree with you regards price of Rangers at around 2.30, and almost backed them earlier than 11.40 when they were 2.80 !! Some times I find it difficult to understand market moves.

KEN,

Been doing summat similar for the last few days. Am 6.665 pts in profit from 7 bets (5 winners) with a 74% ROI. All odds against.
Am loathe to start posting up on here, cos superstition says it'll all go t*ts up.

but, well, you know....
:)

Maurice, what were your 7 selections ?

Ok, it looks like this

3/10/2009

Burnley v Birmingham: BURNLEY 2pts @2.38 WON +2.76
Burnley v Birmingham OVERS 1pt @ 2.44 WON +1.44
Hull v Wigan: WIGAN 2pts @ 2.48 LOST -2
Wolves v Portsmouth: PORTSMOUTH 1pt @ 3.7 WON +2.7
Man United v Sunderland: UNDERS 1.5pts @ 2.56 LOST -1.5

Corinthians v Atletico PR: LAY CORINTHIANS to lose 1pt @ 1.79 WON +1.27

4/10/2009
Lokomotiv Moscow v Rubin Kazan: OVERS 1.5pts @ 2.33 WON +1.995



My sums may well be very very wrong

Maurice, your figures are ok. Personally the English picks of yours fell inside my paramiters which means no bet. Burnley was nearest as I had them about 2.20 but needed to be about 2.45 before I bet. I give myself a good margin for error ! The non Football League matches I don't cover. Good luck.

Personally the English picks of yours fell inside my paramiters which means no bet.

what are your parameters?

Maurice, I do my own pricing and compare them with what is on offer. I only bet when offered prices are at least two prices bigger or smaller.

oh right - i just pick what i think is value

quality work ken - keep it up!

6/10/2006

Portuguesa SP v Sao Caetano: SAO CAETANO 1pt @ 3.6

*6/10/2009 obv....

Maurice365 06 Oct 23:11


6/10/2006

Portuguesa SP v Sao Caetano: SAO CAETANO 1pt @ 3.6

Maurice, I'm curious. What do you know about Portuguese footie ?

BRAZIL K
Total Form H2H
# Team MP W D L F A D P Last 5 matches
1 Vasco da Gama 28 16 8 4 42 18 +24 56 D L W W W
2 Guarani de Campinas 28 16 5 7 42 34 +8 53 D W W L W
3 Atlético Goianiense 28 15 5 8 54 37 +17 50 W L W L W
4 Ceará 28 14 8 6 41 24 +17 50 W W D L W
5 Previous rank: 7 Figueirense 28 15 3 10 47 36 +11 48 W W W W L
6 Portuguesa 28 13 5 10 42 36 +6 44 W W L L D
7 Previous rank: 5 São Caetano 28 12 5 11 39 27 +12 41 L L D W L
8 Ponte Preta 28 10 9 9 46 36 +10 39 L W L L D
9 Previous rank: 12 Ipatinga 28 10 9 9 37 39 -2 39 W L D W W
10 Brasiliense 28 11 5 12 32 31 +1 38 D L W W D
11 Previous rank: 9 Bragantino 28 10 7 11 35 38 -3 37 D L W L L
12 Previous rank: 13 Vila Nova 28 10 6 12 27 40 -13 36 D W L W L
13 Previous rank: 14 Paraná 28 10 5 13 34 46 -12 35 L W L W D
14 Previous rank: 15 Juventude 28 9 7 12 38 37 +1 34 W L L W D
15 Previous rank: 17 Duque de Caxias 28 9 7 12 34 44 -10 34 D W L W W
16 Previous rank: 20 ABC 28 9 4 15 27 45 -18 31 L W W L W
17 Previous rank: 11 Bahia 28 8 7 13 33 42 -9 31 L L D L L
18 Fortaleza 28 8 5 15 43 47 -4 29 L W W L L
19 Previous rank: 16 América de Natal 28 8 5 15 33 51 -18 29 D L L L D
20 Previous rank: 19 Campinense 28 8 3 17 42 60 -18 27 D L L W L

DFC, go away please.

Ken,
it's Brazilian not Portuguese.

It's mostly stat-based rather than any specific knowledge of Brazilian second division football- although these games are all available to watch on the net. I reckon you could make a decent stab of this without ever actually watching a second of football.


It turned out to be an interesting game. Five red cards and a last minute equaliser sent my 'tip' down.
so close, so far away.

+5.665


7/10/2009

Fluminense RJ v Corinthians: CORINTHIANS 1.5pts @ 3.4

Another 1-1 draw
+4.665

9/10/2009

Melbourne v Sydney Sydney 1pt @ 4.0

Melbourne 0 - Sydney FC 3

+7.665pts

9/9/09
Southend v Southampton: DRAW 1pt@ 3.5

10/10/2009

Swindon v Millwall: 2pts Swindon @ 2.72
L Orient v Colchester: 1pt Orient @ 3.95
Yeovil v Brighton: 1.5pt Yeovil @ 2.82

kenilworth 04 Oct 21:28


Profit of 3.53 points on the day
Balance + 20.27 points from 44 bets.
Total Staked 89.5 points
ROI = + 22.6%

Just to remind myself !
-----------------------------------------------
Notts Co v Torquay:
Torquay: 1 point win at 10.5
The Draw: 1 point win at 5.8.

the above looks fair enough, I have gone for a more conservative 1 pt on notts county not to win both halves @ 1.56

crescit, perhaps a shrewd bet, and you may get paid out at half time.

backed unquoted at 12.5 for small hedge bet to cover stake

county need 4 for original bet to lose and always a chance that torquay get 4 to land both

wp ken, i made around half a point. wasn't sure how to price this pre match but county had won both halves in half their games this season but the gulls had only lost both halves in 2 of 11 so value seemed onside.

I'll be interested to see man utds price about the same bet next week as they have only won both halves in 1 of 8 in the league this season and don't recall them doing it in other competitions either

Profit of 3.61 on the day after commission
Balance now + 23.88 points from 46 bets.
Total Staked 91.5 points
ROI = + 26.1%

Brighton v Gillingham: 2 points win at 5/4 (general)

Profit of 2.50 on the day after commission
Balance now + 26.38 points from 47 bets.
Total Staked 93.5 points
ROI = + 28.2%

can't believe i've just seen this thread. I always look out for your threads on the football forum. Looking very good, Kenilworth. All the best.

Well done Kenilworth. Thought you had stopped actually but perhaps that's Maurice!?

Good luck to you.

Shack a lack attack, I'm back

+2.655

16/10/2009
Arsenal v Birmingham: Any Unquoted 2pts@ 3.25

'kenilworth 01 Oct 18:05
Bet 32: BATE Borisov v Everton back Everton at 1.86
Bet 33: BATE Borisov v Everton : back Over 2.5 goals at 2.2

Both bets 2 points on each.'

ken, how did you price this one, if you don't mind me asking? i thought you only bet on domestic leagues. great thread by the way.

rouzhamo, on that particular match, purely on the market moves on here and on the spreads. I think from memory (2 weeks ago) Spin had the goals at 2.7 which suggested 1/1 each of unders and overs, so 2.20 for overs was big enough for a bet IMO. Similar reasons for the match odds, as sometimes it's using the professionals, converting and comparing. Usually different markets mirror each other, but not always.

so if i'd gone 2.5-2.7 it would have been a no bet? interesting.

Not sure what you mean there. The mid price on the total goals market with Spin was 2.7 (2.6 - 2.8) which is the equivelent of evens each unders and overs. An 1/1 chance on offer at 6/5 is enough for me, based on the reliable Spin spreads.

If you can permit a dumb question, what is "Spin"?

i meant exactly what i said ken. and i hope to provide you with a winner or two on thursday night ;)

You're a Spin man ? Gulp !!

Maurice, Spin is short for Sporting Index, a spread betting firm.

Righto. I know Sporting Index, just never heard it called Spin.

Cheers.

Also. How does a spread of 2.6 - 2.8 suggest 1/1 each of unders and overs?
Explain how that works to a dummy like me.... if you will, please.

Maurice, too complex (for me) to explain on here, but every match has a goal expectancy, usually between 2.3 and 3.3 goals, based on each sides match goals previous. Usually the tighter the match, (two evenly matched sides), the lower the figure, if a short priced favourite usually higher. From the arrived figure, the chances of overs or unders can be calculated. 2.7 seems to be the mid figure. GL.

1.5 points matched @ av 1.58 on manu not to win both halves

manu have won both halves in 1 of 8

bolton have lost both halves in 0 of 8

today's ready yet K?

Portsmouth v Tottenham at 2.18
Sunderland v Liverpool at 2.22
Crewe v Port Vale at 2.22
Back 2.5 points on each

Leyton Orient v Brentford at 3.05
Back 2 points win

Torquay v Morecambe at 2.16
LAY Torquay to lose 2.5 points

Ken,
From the arrived figure, the chances of overs or unders can be calculated. 2.7 seems to be the mid figure. GL.



Would it then follow that the more evenly matched the teams, the more even the chances of unders and overs?

One more bet.
QPR v Preston at 2.18
LAY QPR to lose 2.5 points

Maurice, in the main, but occasionally closely matched sides are both low scoring, or high scoring. Swansea and Doncaster spring to mind.

Profit of 1.24 on the day after commission
Balance now + 27.62 points from 53 bets.
Total Staked 108 points
ROI = + 26.7 %

Wigan v ManC : 3 points at 2.0.

Loss of 3 points on the day.
Balance now + 24.62 points from 54 bets.
Total Staked 111 points
ROI = + 22.2 %

Rangers v Unirea to draw[/b] : 1.5 points at 3.60 (on here)
[b]Doncaster v Peterborough to draw: 1.5 points at 3.55 (on here)
Ipswich v Watford : LAY Ipswich at 2.06 to lose 2.50 points.(on here)
5.5 points staked

Loss of 0.77 points on the day.
Balance now + 23.85 points from 57 bets.
Total Staked 116.5 points
ROI = + 20.0 %

CSKA Moscow v ManU: 2.5 points at 2.44

nice 1 ken

Chelsea v Atletico Madrid: over 2.5 goals: 3 points at 1.90
Porto v Apoel: LAY Porto to lose 1 point at 1.23.
Real Madrid v Milan: 3 points at 1.60
FC Zurich v Marseille: LAY Marseille 20 to lose 2.5 points at 1.83
Wolfsberg v Besiktas: 3 points at 1.55
Bordeax v Bayern Munich: 1.5 points at 3.4

Loss of 5.02 points on the day.
Balance now + 18.83 points from 64 bets.
Total Staked 133 points
ROI = + 14.2 %

Fulham v Roma: Overs at 2.14, stake 3 points.

Loss of 3 points on the day.
Balance now + 15.83 points from 65 bets.
Total Staked 136 points
ROI = + 11.6 %

great thread supanap.

be interested to know your opinion on liverpool v man u tomorrow

Betting looks about right, although the draw looks a bit short. Overs / Unders also about right, unders being odds on. A hard game to call in the circumstances. GL.

Reading (at 2.70 on here) v Leicester City. 2.5 points win

Loss of 2.5 points on the day.
Balance now + 13.33 points from 66 bets.
Total Staked 138.5 points
ROI = + 9.62 %

how do you work out your roi pal?

keep her lit, ken


u want some: it's profit as a %age of total points staked.

Ken how do i work out my strike rate?

Fecking hell Ken a lot of hard work for feck all!

Try the gee gees mate more value.

formcast, most people would be very happy with 9% after commission.

Arsenal v Liverpool: Lay at 2.0 to lose 3 points.

Loss of 3 points on the day.
Balance now + 10.33 points from 67 bets.
Total Staked 141.5 points
ROI = + 7.3 %

formcast 28 Oct 04:37

Fecking hell Ken a lot of hard work for feck all!

Try the gee gees mate more value.

----------------------------

:^0

u want some 26 Oct 23:25

how do you work out your roi pal?

Ken has bet 141.5 pts and has a return of 151.83 , so profit 10.33 pts

1% of total stake is 1.415

Divide 10.33 by 1.415 = 7.3% profit

This thread is a good example of how a sequence of results can irritate. 7.3% ROI after commission from 67 random bets would seem acceptable to some people, including myself, but how do you feel about that figure when it was at one point nearly 30% ?. Very exasperated in my case, although the earlier figure was in IMO unsustainable. That I wasn't using a progressive staking plan is the biggest bonus for me, and emphasises the dangers of such staking. I wonder how ''Kelly'' staking would have dealt with such a sequence.

Yes the 30% unsustainable and 7.3% very good after 67 , so wouldn't be too bothered myself, as of course if Bet 1 is 1pt on at Evens , which wins, you start with 100% profit.

10% maintained over a long period would be amazing.

Personally i like to call the ROI on this 107.3% , with 100% of course being the break even figure.

I've always thought of it like that since i read that the average betting shop punter returns 83% of his stake over time , so its something to compare to.

Yes Tobermory, I herewith amend +7.3% to 107.3% and leave out the plus sign.

Closing this thread now to start a new one.
Bets 67
Profit 10.33
ROI 107.3
----------------------------------------------------

This one is slightly better, just. You should of stuck to this one.

I've always thought of it like that since i read that the average betting shop punter returns 83% of his stake over time , so its something to compare to.

Interesting that stat