General Betting
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From today I am going to suggest bets based purely on prices and hopefully show a profit. Staking will be between one and three points, some from here, some at fixed prices. Sensible comments welcome but those after timing ignored. Sarcasm welcome as I have a pretty thick skin.
Bet 1. Accrington v Crewe. Under2.5 goals. 2 points at 2.02 (on here)
Bet 1. Accrington v Crewe. Under2.5 goals. 2 points at 2.02 (on here)
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good luck
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Hi Ken, all the best with the bet, it appears to be a good back bet at decent odds. Not sure if it will come off as Crewe have been keeping it tight defensively for the past cuple of away games, GL tho.
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*couple
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lol, didnt realise it was on tonight! 2-0 after 30 odd mins, so much for my Crewe being solid defensively quote!!
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TOTGA, 2-0 after 5 mins, 2-1 at half time. End of !
Balance: - 2 points. |
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Hard luck Kenilworth. Strangely I had backed overs - but for small stakes I hasten to add - as Crewe used to be very good for overs 1 year, perhaps 2 ago.
I know you like value. In the Betfred shops they have for tomorrow a 'Home Sweet Home' offer with minimum treble bets - example: Liverpool 1.20 (1.15 on here before comm) Spurs 1.44 (1.35 on here etc) Rangers 1.33 (1.32 etc) They also have an 'aways' offer incl. Celtic, Everton, Man Utd, Chelsea. |
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Ken: I know I have been a bit critical of you in the past but I do find your view of value interesting. You obviously understand that the only way to win, LONG TERM, involves getting value. I have seen the threads that say you cant eat value and all that but it is the only way to win.
I will refrain from spelling your name incorrectly and look forwars to more post. |
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Todays bets. I am laying the following:-
Grimsby at 1.85 Charlton at 1.46 Southend at 1.89 Aston Villa at 2.74 ManU at 1.41 Tottenham at 1.33 Chelsea at 1.31 Arsenal at 1.54 Each for a liability of 2 points. Blackpool v Peterboro under 2.5 goals, 2 points at 2.0 Aldershot v Cheltenham under 2.5 goals, 2 points at 2.14 |
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..also laying..
Dagenham at 1.58 Aldershot at 2.32 each to a liabilityl of 2 points |
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Ken,
If you dont mind me asking, what size margin are you looking for here? Say with Arsenal 1.54. What price do you actually make them? |
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JPG, about 2 prices away. I have Arsenal at about 4/6 (1.66).
You got any views ? |
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Ah, I get you. Two "traditional" ticks away.
Nothing there that youve layed that I strongly disagree with. Some, like Arsenal, I dont blame you at all (although youve done well if you can lay at 1.54 ;) ) Some of the others Im fairly neutral about. There appears to be a lot more "challenge" threads these days. So much so, I was thinking about doing one myself, although I was thinking more "Lay only - Odds on only" as many of them seem rely on high strike-rates and I thought it would be a change to do the other route. Seems like youve beaten me to it! |
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I've moved away from betfair and only look in on a Saturday when I'm cheering on Charlton. Been reading a few threads and spotted this one. Must say I don't follow the Prem except to watch MotD when I can. When I saw the Arsenal price I thought that was boardering on generous. Then I looked at the fixtures and saw that they're the away team! Absolutely shocking value. Spot on Ken. Can't be arsed to explain why, but there are countless ways to arrive at that conclusion (and I admire Arsenal too). Good luck.
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JPG, I'm not thinking of this thread as a ''challenge'' thread as those threads are invariably lists of1.05ish shots, of which I have been disdainful of. Now I've started this thread I almost wish I had perhaps just concentrated on tv matches as continually scrolling the English leagues checking prices is time consuming. If I get level I will probably pull the plug and just look at the games on the box. As it is, this thread gets i the way of my own betting, and what I post is not always the same as what I bet !!
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Fulham v Arsenal : Unders at 2.24 - stake 2 points
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kenilworth 26 Sep 17:16
Fulham v Arsenal : Unders at 2.24 - stake 2 points Is this a lay ????? |
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A back, but I thought that was clear.
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Are you going to start shouting at me now.............................
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Ken, your bets look as tho they have done very well today. WD
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7 wins, 6 losses for a net profit of 7.16 points after commission.
Balance + 5.16 from 14 bets. |
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kenilworth 26 Sep 16:03
JPG, I'm not thinking of this thread as a ''challenge'' thread as those threads are invariably lists of1.05ish shots, of which I have been disdainful of. Now I've started this thread I almost wish I had perhaps just concentrated on tv matches as continually scrolling the English leagues checking prices is time consuming. If I get level I will probably pull the plug and just look at the games on the box. As it is, this thread gets i the way of my own betting, and what I post is not always the same as what I bet !! Yeah, while I have no doubt that quite a few of those threads are born out of a genuine strive for increased discipline etc, many do tend focus on the very short odds. Probably due to the author placing too short a time period on the exercise and/or trying to save face from a forum perspective (regular winners and profits and when the loser(s) come, they appear really unlucky.) The possibility of a thread challenge interupting my own betting had crossed my mind. Also, the reporting of such bets could be a little "messy" or at least, unsatisfactory. For example, today, I too layed Arsenal (@1.57) as a value play but if anyone looked at my transactions on that market, they'd see multiple backs and lays on all 3 outcomes (due to opinion bets, repostioning, trading, scratching etc). Of course, I could simply just post the "value play" that would form part of the thread/challenge but it wouldnt quite feel "right" when I then reconciled that with my P & L! Im not sure yet but I was thinking along the lines of: Football only BF only Lay only Odds-on only On top of this, I was thinking of making an arbitrary profit target over a time target (not something I actually do with my betting but for the purposes of keeping some "spice" in the thread/challenge.) Im not sure about this though :) |
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Maybe the Championship is a good place to start if you're looking for a smidgin of value.
I certainly heard a number of championship managers repeating in radio interviews last year that it was the division where anyone can beat anyone. From memory (and might be wrong on this) I think in the last 3 rounds of matches, the largest price team of the 24 playing has landed, palace at wba yesterday, scunthorpe at palace and can't remember the third, might have been barnsley at derby |
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[u]ManC v West Ham: back overs at 1.90 : 3 points stake.[/u]
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ManC v West Ham: ManC to win: 3 points win
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^ forgot price on city
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Correction; ManC at 1.60
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good start there
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you did VERY well to get 1.60 on Man City
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So what ?
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Two wins from two bets for a profit of 4.27 points after commission.
Balance + 9.43 from 16 bets. |
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Sept 29. Bet 17. Doncaster v Swansea. Draw. 1 point at 12/5 (High St)
Bet 18.Fiorintina v Liverpool. 9 corners or less. 2points at 6/5 (High St) |
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Twice as bullish as King Kev with those corners, impressive.
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Lay the following:
Bet 19: Peterborough at 1.73 Bet 20: WBA at 1.78 Bet 21: Sheffield Un at 1.62 Bet 22: Seville at 1.91 Each for a liability of 2 points --------------------------------------------- Bet 23: Stuttgart, back 2 points at 2.32 |
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4 wins, 3 losses for a net profit of 4.49 points after commission.
Balance + 13.92 from 23 bets. |
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nice one
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points ratio to bets is a little decieving, because bet more than 1 point on some of your bets.
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Total stake: 47 points
Profit: 13.92 points ROI: + 29.6% |
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A clean sweep in the Championship Ken, a good hunting ground. Good picks tho..
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crescit, I hadn't noticed that and even I am impressed ! All good odds against as well. It's a bit quiet though so I can only imagine people are more interested in me tipping losers or backing 1.05 winners. :(
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