Does anyone bet prices rather than fancies ?

If you bet £10 on tails at evns and someone offered you 2/1 Heads, what would you do?

If I thought their "true chance" was 11/10 (and if I bet on football) - yes.

If Fulham drifted to, say 2.45 for no apparent reason, would you back them purely for the price ?






Probably.

A lot of my time is spent taking money on favourties at shorter odds than they should be. It is just as logical to back at odds that are bigger than they should be is it not?

But I detect an underlying point here Ken. What is it?

Hard to have a bet if you don't. If you think they are 2.2 chances and they're available at 2.1 or 2.2 presumably you don't want to bet. The only chance of having a bet is if the price is bigger than you make it. The alternative is to bet a team you fancy at any price?

I think you need a strong opinion on the bet as well as value............just betting prices, does it work? I picked a few darts bets out that were great value last week, but they didn't win.......no point having value on losing bets..........it's a tough one

a good example is Kauto Star on Saturday.........at 5/4 morning price he was a bet..........at 4/6 SP he was a lay........the horse won in the end so who wins? the 4/6 backer should lose in the long run...... but it's the 4/6 layer who is out of pocket on the bet even though he was the one getting value

it's about the long haul not one race/match though

I quit my job ........ well find another job .. why 1/1 4/6 8 /11 heads or tails toss of a coin ... red or black 1/1 ... soccer 4/11 home team ... At them odds any game the punter cannot win long term ...

It is for marathon runners, not sprinters.

What was your real point Ken?

u can win betting those odds you just need a higher strike-rate

a good example is Kauto Star on Saturday.........at 5/4 morning price he was a bet..........at 4/6 SP he was a lay........the horse won in the end so who wins? the 4/6 backer should lose in the long run...... but it's the 4/6 layer who is out of pocket on the bet even though he was the one getting value

How do you know that 5/4 was value and that 4/6 wasn't?
Obviously it's nice to be able to back at higher prices, but who is to say the price shouldn't have been 1.05? Or are you just guessing?

conditions betfairy..............clearly the best horse in the race by a mile...........but 1st run of season, v soft conditions, unseated rider in this last year..........odds-on no...odds-against yes

but you guys have been around alot longer than me.............zipper why can't you win long-term backing evens?

If the horse's chance was genuinely evens, you will win long term by laying 4/6 or backing 5/4. It doesn't matter whether it wins in that particular race naturally, the mathematics are on your side.

but what about in short tournaments like darts? you haven't got the time on your side

Will you die at the end of the tournament?

prices v fancies...wow

My primary selection criteria involves neither of these "attributes"

I.quit.my.job 25 Nov 14:14

but what about in short tournaments like darts? you haven't got the time on your side

As Baz says ; there will be plenty more Darts Tournaments.

scotbet 25 Nov 14:15
prices v fancies...wow

My primary selection criteria involves neither of these "attributes"






Not price?! So what are your selection criteria without price?

i know what you are saying, in the long run, etc......but it's so frustrating when you have massive value and are unrewarded for your efforts

another point; if it was all about the prices, then you would lay all steamers and back drifters?

but it's so frustrating when you have massive value and are unrewarded for your efforts

How do you know you have "massive value". What if your calculations are wrong?

No underlying point Alex, but regards your post, you are doing something different from my question, that is laying favourites you consider to be too short, and nothing wrong with that. I have been noticing some late moves for and against sides in the last 15-20 mins before kickoff and just wondered if anyone joins in. In some of these lower div matches the only people who know most about these sides are the respective fans and they only know about their own siide, not the opposition. Going back to my original question, would you consider backing, say Fulham if the price became big enough ?

Alex

I initially work around some trends - I would call that my primary selection criteria .....at that point I couldn't careless about the price or whether I fancied it ....that comes later

Going back to my original question, would you consider backing, say Fulham if the price became big enough ?






Ken,

Yes but subject to understanding why the price moved and whether it is still value or not. It is no good backing if the reason for the price move is Lasagna poisoning.

would you consider backing, say Fulham if the price became big enough ?


what's big enough? when does 'too big' become 'big enough'?
8/1 - yeah, I'd have a wee dab.

I quit my job - did you lay kauto star at 4/6?

Back the DRAW in Fulham match ...far better than backing FULHAM IMO.......

3.3 is higher odds than backing Fulham ...and also the most likely result

DFCIRONMAN - I'm not sure that's his point at all at all

I don't fancy either of 2 to win....and odds for DRAW are well above FULHAM's odds ....so DRAW is choice.

scotbet 25 Nov 14:15
prices v fancies...wow

My primary selection criteria involves neither of these "attributes"

how can ANY betting strategy not involve price?

GASHWAN 25 Nov 19:43


scotbet 25 Nov 14:15
prices v fancies...wow

My primary selection criteria involves neither of these "attributes"

how can ANY betting strategy not involve price?


I'm talking "selection criteria" btw

I am sure scotbet does consider price. It was just not high on the list for the purpose of the point he was making on this fred.

I'll go back to my original question. Would you back a percieved 2.15 chance if it went out to, say 2.45 for no apparent reason, in the 20 mins before the off. In other words, purely backing the price, would you ?

i wouldn't because there is most likely a good reason for the drift.

I quit - you have to think in terms of campaigns of hundreds of bets, otherwise you are wasting your time.

The term 'no apparent reason' is unclear. Have you considered everything thoroughly at this point or just have no real idea why the drift is occuring.

is it time to bet fulham now price has improved ????

i confess to a small back of fulham overs purely on price (drifted from 2.14 this morning to 2.34 pre ko)

would be less keen on a backing a drift on match odds without knowing the reason why

Virtually all my strategy is based on the eg in the opening post and I've won a lot of money.

2.34 before kickoff, ? I didn't see that.

Baz,The term 'no apparent reason' doesn't seem unclear to me.

I explained why it's unclear. What knowledge do you have? Could the goalkeeper or an important player have been injured in the warm up? Have you considered every carefully or are you just thinking 'I can't see why it's drifted' without much further investigation?

If the goal keeper injured himself in the warm up, it would be common knowledge. That doesn't come under ''no apparent reason''

So what's the difference between your question and "Do you bet on 2.2 shots when the price is 2.4"?

Obviously the answer to my version is yes, but maybe something's lost in translation?

If the goal keeper injured himself in the warm up, it would be common knowledge

In a game is not televised live how would it be common knowledge? This thread gets more bizarre by the post. The keeper injures himself 15 mins before the ko and it's common knowledge within 4 mins of that event? People at the ground hold a big advantage and connections will have played while you're trying to make sense of the drift. People may be watching SSN or listening to the radio and may pick up on it but common knowledge?

kenilworth 25 Nov 20:52
Baz,The term 'no apparent reason' doesn't seem unclear to me.


now thats funny ffs

Baz, I believe late drifts happen nearly all the time for ''no apparent reason'', but I will concede that if the keeper hurt himself in the warm up in the match between Hereford and Accrington we wouldn't know about it, but I prefer my reason most of the time. How many times have you seen a goalkeeper being replaced after the warm up ? Last week at Stoke when David James withdrew ? Stoke actually drifted !

I never get involved in pre-match trading. Totally unpredictable from what I have experienced in the past. It's like being the feather in the Forest Gump film - you just get blown around all over the place.

Kerrygold, you appear to have trouble understanding the English language.

The term late is vague, 45 mins pre-off market moves have a fair chance of being team news related, I would check there first on that occasion. If ten mins pre-off I would have less regard for the move, ruling out players inj in warm up etc. Keep an eye on the Asian line, is the move generated from there? How much has been matched? In the case of a lower level lge match it might have taken only a few hundred to move the price a fair way as someone may just want a bet. The answer as I see it is to price up the matches you are interested in before the match and bet where you are confident that you have considered everything and see the price as wrong.

As I read once on here before, there is a right price and wrong price for everything.

I'll back or lay ANYTHING when the price is right - i.e. where I have an edge

Baz, Last evening 6 teams drifted / hardened sufficiently for me to be involved, all in the last 30 mins before kickoff, 3 of them in the five minutes before 7.45 deadline. To do what you suggest would be impossible. I was happy with the end result, perhaps the reason for my post the cynics would say !

For the record, I price up every match the day before, but that is not what I am talking about. The opening example is what I am referring to.

a lot of those drifts seem to happen because of team formation, but would it put me off seeing a big drift? not really unless the weather suddenly went wild. horse racing is a different matter though!

Kenilworth, assuming you're opposing the moves, you did well to miss Gillingham, they shortened up appreciably pre off. I think the trade at the off is the most 'genuine' as anyone with anything strong would not be risking disconnection etc in the 5 mins pre off and would have played prior to that. If I was laying/backing away from the market, I would prob choose that time to do so.

I only mention the pricing as you need to have a price in your mind as a base.

I don't remember seeing any significant move for Gillingham, but did note..
Rochdale 2.80
Wycombe 3.20
Norwich 1.55
Cheltenham 3.20
Colchester 1.52
Charlton 1.66
Some in, some out.

correction re the overs in the fulham game, i was slightly out in what i said but got 2.32

i've always thought there was a little bit of of value in the unders market just through the number of people who like backing overs but noticed unders came in sharply again today on metz. Maybe due to lack of IP games and traders looking at something to take a pre-match position on?

anything that bookies are priced up over betafair get steamed in.

For instance this evening Fulham are 11/10 with the books, around 2.20 before comm on here, close enough to be about right IMO.
If Fulham drifted to, say 2.45 for no apparent reason, would you back them purely for the price ?

Yes- The first winning strategy I ever wrote did exactly this. It looked for drifts withing particular odds ranges and backed anything that moved within specific parameters. There was no discrimination between "reasonded" drifts (eg a particular player being withdrawn) and unreasoned drifts and it worked out just fine. I originally researched it using horse races but went on to use it on several sports successfully- although it was most effective on horses. I then started laying pre off steamers but found that less effective.

I gave it up when I found bigger and less variable fish to fry, but it got me going. The good thing about this kind of strategy is that you can roll it out quite extensively with only minimal infrastucture and code, or even do it by hand if you've go the patience.

even value is about opinions , there's no pre-race matrix table you can look up to see who had value and who didn't , consequently whether something is value is an opinion the same as the opinion as to why you've chosen that selection in the first place , that's the beauty of why we are debating now and fortunately always will be.

even value is about opinions

That's not quite right-

Altough you can't acurately determine the value of an individual bet you can retrospectively asess the average value of a set of bets. on that basis you can make a probabilistic assumption about the value of the bets you are striking along the lines of:

"I have achieved an average value of +5% on X number of pre match football bets, I'm therefore Y% (dependent on X) confident that this bet has a value of +3-7%"

That wouldn't be a statement of your opinion, it would be a probabilistic asessment. The difference is important.

robot --you are a legend mate .
how big was your bank to start with , robot ?

Zealot,

I'm not sure whether you're being sacastic and I'm aout to get an earful for being a smug tw@t- but in case I'm not-

I started off as a bonus **/arber, so I had a decent bank for that. In the process of getting all those bets on I started to think I could make money better with "straight" betting. I didn't want to risk my shirt on a silly fantasy though so I withdrew everything but £25 and promissed myself I would never deposit.

I Started off betting 10p a time (using Gruss) untill I started winning reliably- which took quite a while.

These days I live off Betfair - I do other things but I don't make much money off them.

Hhhmmm,

Im not quite sure what to make of this thread to be honest.

Whats the "core" of the discussion here again?

I asked whether anyone backed ''prices'' or ''fancies'' but like most threads, after a few posts, it goes off on a tangent. Never mind, I'll leave them to it.