General Betting
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For instance this evening Fulham are 11/10 with the books, around 2.20 before comm on here, close enough to be about right IMO.
If Fulham drifted to, say 2.45 for no apparent reason, would you back them purely for the price ?
If Fulham drifted to, say 2.45 for no apparent reason, would you back them purely for the price ?
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If you bet £10 on tails at evns and someone offered you 2/1 Heads, what would you do?
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If I thought their "true chance" was 11/10 (and if I bet on football) - yes.
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If Fulham drifted to, say 2.45 for no apparent reason, would you back them purely for the price ?
Probably. A lot of my time is spent taking money on favourties at shorter odds than they should be. It is just as logical to back at odds that are bigger than they should be is it not? But I detect an underlying point here Ken. What is it? |
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Hard to have a bet if you don't. If you think they are 2.2 chances and they're available at 2.1 or 2.2 presumably you don't want to bet. The only chance of having a bet is if the price is bigger than you make it. The alternative is to bet a team you fancy at any price?
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I think you need a strong opinion on the bet as well as value............just betting prices, does it work? I picked a few darts bets out that were great value last week, but they didn't win.......no point having value on losing bets..........it's a tough one
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a good example is Kauto Star on Saturday.........at 5/4 morning price he was a bet..........at 4/6 SP he was a lay........the horse won in the end so who wins? the 4/6 backer should lose in the long run...... but it's the 4/6 layer who is out of pocket on the bet even though he was the one getting value
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it's about the long haul not one race/match though
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I quit my job ........ well find another job .. why 1/1 4/6 8 /11 heads or tails toss of a coin ... red or black 1/1 ... soccer 4/11 home team ... At them odds any game the punter cannot win long term ...
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It is for marathon runners, not sprinters.
What was your real point Ken? |
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u can win betting those odds you just need a higher strike-rate
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a good example is Kauto Star on Saturday.........at 5/4 morning price he was a bet..........at 4/6 SP he was a lay........the horse won in the end so who wins? the 4/6 backer should lose in the long run...... but it's the 4/6 layer who is out of pocket on the bet even though he was the one getting value
How do you know that 5/4 was value and that 4/6 wasn't? Obviously it's nice to be able to back at higher prices, but who is to say the price shouldn't have been 1.05? Or are you just guessing? |
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conditions betfairy..............clearly the best horse in the race by a mile...........but 1st run of season, v soft conditions, unseated rider in this last year..........odds-on no...odds-against yes
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but you guys have been around alot longer than me.............zipper why can't you win long-term backing evens?
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If the horse's chance was genuinely evens, you will win long term by laying 4/6 or backing 5/4. It doesn't matter whether it wins in that particular race naturally, the mathematics are on your side.
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but what about in short tournaments like darts? you haven't got the time on your side
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Will you die at the end of the tournament?
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prices v fancies...wow
My primary selection criteria involves neither of these "attributes" |
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I.quit.my.job 25 Nov 14:14
but what about in short tournaments like darts? you haven't got the time on your side As Baz says ; there will be plenty more Darts Tournaments. |
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scotbet 25 Nov 14:15
prices v fancies...wow My primary selection criteria involves neither of these "attributes" Not price?! So what are your selection criteria without price? |
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i know what you are saying, in the long run, etc......but it's so frustrating when you have massive value and are unrewarded for your efforts
another point; if it was all about the prices, then you would lay all steamers and back drifters? |
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but it's so frustrating when you have massive value and are unrewarded for your efforts
How do you know you have "massive value". What if your calculations are wrong? |
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No underlying point Alex, but regards your post, you are doing something different from my question, that is laying favourites you consider to be too short, and nothing wrong with that. I have been noticing some late moves for and against sides in the last 15-20 mins before kickoff and just wondered if anyone joins in. In some of these lower div matches the only people who know most about these sides are the respective fans and they only know about their own siide, not the opposition. Going back to my original question, would you consider backing, say Fulham if the price became big enough ?
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Alex
I initially work around some trends - I would call that my primary selection criteria .....at that point I couldn't careless about the price or whether I fancied it ....that comes later |
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Going back to my original question, would you consider backing, say Fulham if the price became big enough ?
Ken, Yes but subject to understanding why the price moved and whether it is still value or not. It is no good backing if the reason for the price move is Lasagna poisoning. |
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would you consider backing, say Fulham if the price became big enough ?
what's big enough? when does 'too big' become 'big enough'? 8/1 - yeah, I'd have a wee dab. |
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I quit my job - did you lay kauto star at 4/6?
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Back the DRAW in Fulham match ...far better than backing FULHAM IMO.......
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3.3 is higher odds than backing Fulham ...and also the most likely result
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DFCIRONMAN - I'm not sure that's his point at all at all
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I don't fancy either of 2 to win....and odds for DRAW are well above FULHAM's odds ....so DRAW is choice.
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scotbet 25 Nov 14:15
prices v fancies...wow My primary selection criteria involves neither of these "attributes" how can ANY betting strategy not involve price? |
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GASHWAN 25 Nov 19:43
scotbet 25 Nov 14:15 prices v fancies...wow My primary selection criteria involves neither of these "attributes" how can ANY betting strategy not involve price? I'm talking "selection criteria" btw |
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I am sure scotbet does consider price. It was just not high on the list for the purpose of the point he was making on this fred.
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I'll go back to my original question. Would you back a percieved 2.15 chance if it went out to, say 2.45 for no apparent reason, in the 20 mins before the off. In other words, purely backing the price, would you ?
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i wouldn't because there is most likely a good reason for the drift.
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I quit - you have to think in terms of campaigns of hundreds of bets, otherwise you are wasting your time.
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The term 'no apparent reason' is unclear. Have you considered everything thoroughly at this point or just have no real idea why the drift is occuring.
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is it time to bet fulham now price has improved ????
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i confess to a small back of fulham overs purely on price (drifted from 2.14 this morning to 2.34 pre ko)
would be less keen on a backing a drift on match odds without knowing the reason why |