General Betting
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With paper attempts to use KELLY CALCULATOR for betting on horse races, the following results were obtained -
ATTEMPT 1 : LOSS of 1,000 points
ATTEMPT 2 : PROFIT of 1,107 points
So over all with paper bank made a small profit on threads ......as was posting early on here selections , then had I not been doing that the over all profit would have been at least 500 points more.
Yesterday was using a small money bank to use KC on some races and made a small profit of £23.19
from STARTING MONEY BANK of £338.63.
So as now using money to bet, it is best to have a separate thread.
Will post selections shortly............and will be not initally be doing FULL KELLY STAKING......but after a run of say 20 losses, I will increase the proportion of KELLY STAKING used, as it is a reasonable thing to do when "confident" returns will be obtained EVENTUALLY.
GL with bets today.
ATTEMPT 1 : LOSS of 1,000 points
ATTEMPT 2 : PROFIT of 1,107 points
So over all with paper bank made a small profit on threads ......as was posting early on here selections , then had I not been doing that the over all profit would have been at least 500 points more.
Yesterday was using a small money bank to use KC on some races and made a small profit of £23.19
from STARTING MONEY BANK of £338.63.
So as now using money to bet, it is best to have a separate thread.
Will post selections shortly............and will be not initally be doing FULL KELLY STAKING......but after a run of say 20 losses, I will increase the proportion of KELLY STAKING used, as it is a reasonable thing to do when "confident" returns will be obtained EVENTUALLY.
GL with bets today.
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12.40 race ...no time to do
12.50 race ....don't like shape of race ...so PASS |
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1.10 - Juvenile Hurdle race..... nothing appeals to me in this one ..so PASS.
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1.20 - Nomecheki
MONEY BANK STARTING : £ 370.08 ODDS AVAILABLE : 4.4 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 3-1 ( 25 %) STAKE : 6.59 WIN STAKE £6.59 Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR |
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1.40 - Natural Rhythm
MONEY BANK before any races above : £ 363.49 ODDS AVAILABLE : 20 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 12-1 ( 7.69 %) STAKE INDICATED : 9.36 WIN STAKE £2.59Natural Rhythm Also doing cover bet £2 on BET NOIR Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR |
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£5.81 profit only on 1.20 race ....too generous with IR lay !!!!!
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1.50 - Heronway
MONEY BANK now : £ 371.01 before next race and after NOMECHEKI win ODDS AVAILABLE : 110 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 20-1 ( 4.76 %) STAKE INDICATED : 13.78 WIN STAKE £ 2 PLACE STAKE £2 at 22 Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY |
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£3 PLACE bet as cover on NATURAL RHYTHM in 1.40 at 3.80 as well
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2.00 .....not sure about ...no time to weigh up ...so PASS
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Natural Rhythm was travelling well .....a bit "unlucky" with that one not at least placing....but that is racing!
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Having problems posting due to a "MODERATED FORUM" etc .....................anybody know what is happening re this interruption??????
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Looks like BF are stopping my posts ....somebody must have complained presumably.......
Perhaps me posting reasons for PASSING on a race are the cause ????? |
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2.20 - FIN LAY
MONEY BANK now : £ 359.43 ODDS AVAILABLE : 5.3 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 3-1 ( 25 %) STAKE INDICATED : 23.87 WIN STAKE £ 6 Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY |
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It was the fking NAME OF HORSE that was problem
By time I posted the odds have come in from 5.7 to 4.4 ........ANNOYEDDDDDDDDDDDDD |
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5.3 was my 2nd attempt at posting
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2.20 - PASS .....
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2.30- Zegna
MONEY BANK now : £ 357.43 ODDS AVAILABLE : 3.75 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 2-1 ( 33.33 %) STAKE INDICATED : 27.92 WIN STAKE £ 8 Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY |
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2.40 - ZANIR
MONEY BANK now : £ 349.43 ODDS AVAILABLE : 6.2 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 3-1 ( 25 %) STAKE INDICATED : 34.31 WIN STAKE £ 8 with cover win bet on Smugglers Bay Win £2 Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY |
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2.50 - LE COMMENCEMENT
MONEY BANK now : £ 339.43 ODDS AVAILABLE : 6.0 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 4-1 ( 20 %) STAKE INDICATED : 10.72 WIN STAKE £ 3.72 with cover win bet £2 on Diamond Supreme at 100s Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY |
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Costly race ...had 2nd and 3rd there in 2.30 ....and the 6 yo won.......the odds indicated the winner was well fancied......very low odds for 6 yo in this type of race ....DRATTTTTTTTTTT
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Plumpton 1.20 Full Result
1st 6 Nomecheki (FR) 11-2 2nd 3 Russian Flag (FR) 9-1 3rd 1 Bormo (FR) 15-2 Still gnawing gums over the only winner today .....backed it too low odds, as drifted out, then wrote off far too much profit IR....... :( |
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£27.56 profit off ZANIR win ...less commission
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3.00 PASS on
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3.10 PASS on...away for coffee
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No loss on LE COMMENCEMENt in 2.50 race
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3.20 Moon Melody
MONEY BANK now : £ 358.64 ODDS AVAILABLE : 8.6 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 4-1 ( 20 %) STAKE INDICATED : 31.99 WIN STAKE £ 8 with cover win bet £2 on Majic Moments at Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY |
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Leicester 2.40 Full Result
1st 1 Zanir (FR) 9-2 2nd 9 Pickamus (FR) 11-1 3rd 4 Clova Island 13-2 |
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Feeling a wee bit knackered....so will just do low stakes on the 3.30
3.30 ARASHI £3 win at 10.50 HERITAGE COAST £2 WIN at 8s |
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3.40 - Kelly Manor
MONEY BANK now : £ 333.91 ODDS AVAILABLE : 28 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 12-1 ( 7.69 %) STAKE INDICATED : 13.66 WIN STAKE £6 EW place odds 6.6 Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY |
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3.40 - Cobbler's Queen
MONEY BANK now : £ 321.91 ODDS AVAILABLE : 4.6 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 3-1 ( 25 %) STAKE INDICATED : 9.88 WIN STAKE £9.88 Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY |
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3.50- Kaybeew
MONEY BANK now : £319.13 ODDS AVAILABLE : 3.25 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 2-1 ( 33.33 %) STAKE INDICATED : 6.83 WIN STAKE £6.83Kaybeew Cover WIN bet £2 on LITTLE MOOR at 18.50 Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY |
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COBBLER's QUEEN win £20.24 before commission less loss on place bet of £6....in 3.40
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Leicester 3.40
1st 5 Cobbler's Queen (IRE) 7-2 F 2nd 1 Devon Native (IRE) 10-1 3rd 11 Pure Crystal 5-1 |
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4.00 Gilt Edge Girl
MONEY BANK now : £345.43 ODDS AVAILABLE : 17 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 9-1 ( 10 %) STAKE INDICATED : 14.09 WIN STAKE £4Gilt Edge Girl With cover £2 WIN bet on Bosun Breese at 22s Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally. Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY |
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Plumpton 3.50
1st 3 Kaybeew 2-1 F 2nd 5 Landenstown Star (IRE) 4-1 3rd 7 Silver Footnote 13-2 Only made £7.48 before commission on race .....still a win though :D |
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£38.48 profit on GILT EDGE GIRL :D ...less commission :(
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wd there m8.
I backed that beast, thought for all the world it was cooked. |
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Wolverhampton 4.00
1st 7 Gilt Edge Girl 16-1 2nd 8 Ivory Silk 5-1 3rd 6 Fantasy Explorer 15-8 F Had a rough passage at one time ...so wrote off a chunk of profit ...was worth doing ...I think in that race. |
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CHeers M....so did I ....that is why wrote off so much :( :D
WD M :D |
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Looks like I took bad odds on GILT EDGE GIRL ...only backed at 16.5.....................pretty bad error by me ther :(
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