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28 Aug 08
13:32
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Date Joined:
25 Jun 08
I like so many people that type on these forums would love to become a "Professional Gambler" and make this their full-time job.
Even if it makes a regular steady profit, im sure most people would prefer this rather than having to work the same old tedious 9-5 job, answering to their superiors on a daily basis, suffering those long motorway drives to work etc.
I have read so many ideas of what people interpret as the skills required by professional gamblers and would like to use this thread to comment on some things that i have recently read in a e-book i downloaded a while ago.
Weare all different in the ways we bet, whether we back or lay, follow horses or football, find value or dont, use 1% of our bank or 10% of your bank per bet, is there really anybody that can say with all honesty that whether you do one, or the other of the above you are destined to be a success. I for one believe that a gambler/ trader will each have their own abilities and the success lies in the development of their so called "system" to enable them to pick more winners than losers.
Take this as an example- 2 gamblers are given the same bankroll and use their own techniques, come back a month later and one gambler would of made 20% profit where the other made a 30% loss, it is amazing how 2 people can be given the same opportunities in life but get so many different results.
Some things that i want to note on this thread, so i can continuously read over and absorb my thoughts are:
- All gamblers have good and bad days, some days youll make profits and some you will lose profits and once or twice a month you will maje obscene profits, they all count towards your eventual target.
- Gambling/ Trading is all about managaing risk and then surrendering yourself to the oldest law in the univers: The ancient law of probability.
- Think "percentage of bank", think "average risk-to-reward ratio", think "potential profit versus maximum points risked".
- Become your own mentor, watch how you're behaving during the session. Be careful to note down your feelings.
-Alter your words, change "loss" to "expense", alter "win" to "profit", changing your words and treating it like a business will help you to develop your ability and especially help to increase your bankroll.
- Take it easy, "Rme wasnt built in a day" Dont gamble 24 hours a day, accumulate your profits over time. And you will make more by doing less.
-The fact is, gambling has to be about one thing... making a profit
- Write down your thoughts and read them back at the end of the week, how did you feel when you backed unders in a game that saw 2 goals in the first 7minutes or when you layed an away team at odds of 10.0 that were 2-0 up in the first half. Make a note of why you placed the bet in the first place and stick to your plan religiously.
We all have different thoughts and feelings on what qualitites you need to make this job pay but very few can get it right.
We each have our own areas of strength and all have our areas of weakness its how we merge these that can make us a true profit maker.
Just a few thoughts i have had and hopefully with a few comments from others can help me achieve my dream and make this job pay in a way that i have never even dreamed to be possible! :-)
Even if it makes a regular steady profit, im sure most people would prefer this rather than having to work the same old tedious 9-5 job, answering to their superiors on a daily basis, suffering those long motorway drives to work etc.
I have read so many ideas of what people interpret as the skills required by professional gamblers and would like to use this thread to comment on some things that i have recently read in a e-book i downloaded a while ago.
Weare all different in the ways we bet, whether we back or lay, follow horses or football, find value or dont, use 1% of our bank or 10% of your bank per bet, is there really anybody that can say with all honesty that whether you do one, or the other of the above you are destined to be a success. I for one believe that a gambler/ trader will each have their own abilities and the success lies in the development of their so called "system" to enable them to pick more winners than losers.
Take this as an example- 2 gamblers are given the same bankroll and use their own techniques, come back a month later and one gambler would of made 20% profit where the other made a 30% loss, it is amazing how 2 people can be given the same opportunities in life but get so many different results.
Some things that i want to note on this thread, so i can continuously read over and absorb my thoughts are:
- All gamblers have good and bad days, some days youll make profits and some you will lose profits and once or twice a month you will maje obscene profits, they all count towards your eventual target.
- Gambling/ Trading is all about managaing risk and then surrendering yourself to the oldest law in the univers: The ancient law of probability.
- Think "percentage of bank", think "average risk-to-reward ratio", think "potential profit versus maximum points risked".
- Become your own mentor, watch how you're behaving during the session. Be careful to note down your feelings.
-Alter your words, change "loss" to "expense", alter "win" to "profit", changing your words and treating it like a business will help you to develop your ability and especially help to increase your bankroll.
- Take it easy, "Rme wasnt built in a day" Dont gamble 24 hours a day, accumulate your profits over time. And you will make more by doing less.
-The fact is, gambling has to be about one thing... making a profit
- Write down your thoughts and read them back at the end of the week, how did you feel when you backed unders in a game that saw 2 goals in the first 7minutes or when you layed an away team at odds of 10.0 that were 2-0 up in the first half. Make a note of why you placed the bet in the first place and stick to your plan religiously.
We all have different thoughts and feelings on what qualitites you need to make this job pay but very few can get it right.
We each have our own areas of strength and all have our areas of weakness its how we merge these that can make us a true profit maker.
Just a few thoughts i have had and hopefully with a few comments from others can help me achieve my dream and make this job pay in a way that i have never even dreamed to be possible! :-)
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Fair play - there's not many people that can trade fast moving markets like those all day.
Whats the secret, powerade, haribos?
Whats the secret, powerade, haribos?
secret is my total obsession with sport and my love of numbers/odds. people talk of it being a lonely life being full time on here. i absolutely love it, i still play tennis most mornings and have my social time down the gym where i play and know most people and then im back for the afternoon and evening sportfest, what could be better!! i feel a lot of people just enjoy the gambling but have no enjoyment for the sport they are betting on. id watch the sports i bet on even if i had no money riding on them. yes i do have an understanding wife ( to be) , who lets me crack on with it. i probably only have 35 weeks out of 52 where i bet , so that gives me around 4 months a yr that i can do other things.
Very similar for me. Although I very rarely spend more than 4 hours a day on here, then again I only have 4/5 weeks off.
As you said it's absolutely crucial for longevity that you enjoy what you're betting on
As you said it's absolutely crucial for longevity that you enjoy what you're betting on
i to trade in a simlilar way to callattaxi,i am sure at times we jump each other on certain sports,i suspect it may happen a lot on the frame betting at snooker,but competition makes for fairer prices for all.i cannot understand how people think that we do not provide liquidity at times there would be nothing in some markets especially the less popular sports if we did not make markets for them.
im sure we do scarecrow. ive always assumed u were the 111 222 333 man who i spend most of my time fighting with!! but then im sure i drive u mad as well.
I earlier said "I'd say any trader that couldn't trade if the queue was hidden would be unlikely to be adding any liquidity". I don't think that suggests that market makers, using their own opinion on odds, don't supply liquidity.
I'm not against people closing out bets, I just think betfair give out too much market information. This allows opinionless parasites to act as middlemen between backers and layers. These middlemen contribute nothing in terms of liquidity or commission yet they're responsible for the vast bulk of requests that the betfair server processes. If betfair sold tickets for events, most tickets would be bought off touts.
I'm not against people closing out bets, I just think betfair give out too much market information. This allows opinionless parasites to act as middlemen between backers and layers. These middlemen contribute nothing in terms of liquidity or commission yet they're responsible for the vast bulk of requests that the betfair server processes. If betfair sold tickets for events, most tickets would be bought off touts.
So if I owned shares in a company you are suggesting that I should not be able to sell at the current market price but would have to guesstimate what a fair price would be.
PMSL! Feck, you really do have a strange opinion on this!
PMSL! Feck, you really do have a strange opinion on this!
I haven't a clue what you mean betfairy. In what way would there not be a current market price using my interface?
To a certain extent I wd accept as a definition of liquidity 'the illusion of liquidity' i.e. money available to a sufficient volume at a price where someone is prepared to take it, whether or not the sp or later price winds up being better for the price-taker.
But feck's purist definition of liquidity is prob. better and as he says wd not work out significantly worse for bf.
Traders also offer other users a lousy service in terms of offering liquid spot prices in unformed markets or in pre-off markets where there has been an unexpected event. A pie-in-the-sky idea wd be for bf to slice a bit off traders' usually high comm. if they agreed for their min. bet to be e.g. 25x the site mimimum.
But feck's purist definition of liquidity is prob. better and as he says wd not work out significantly worse for bf.
Traders also offer other users a lousy service in terms of offering liquid spot prices in unformed markets or in pre-off markets where there has been an unexpected event. A pie-in-the-sky idea wd be for bf to slice a bit off traders' usually high comm. if they agreed for their min. bet to be e.g. 25x the site mimimum.
feck can you explain how your interface looks like and works?
thanks.
I think current interface is good and shows what the market opinion is. It helps a backer to bet. The price can go up or down based on market supply and demand at one non changing position. Hiding ques means what?
thanks.
I think current interface is good and shows what the market opinion is. It helps a backer to bet. The price can go up or down based on market supply and demand at one non changing position. Hiding ques means what?
U25k, I would just show one price and no amounts on each side. The odds showing would be the odds available to take out a fixed amount which would be dependent on the type of event and closeness to the off. e.g. Suppose there were 3 lays in the queue 100 @ 6.0, 200 @ 5.8 and 300 @ 5.4 and the fixed take out was 1K. The odds showing would be 5.90 (that's the best price available to back to take out 1K).
Pros
If someone sticks in a lay of £2 @ 6.2 the odds change only very slightly so no more £2 leap frog
Three £2 bets won't be able to hide decent liquidity a now.
A large bet won't panic the market so no need for drip feeding any more.
Pros
If someone sticks in a lay of £2 @ 6.2 the odds change only very slightly so no more £2 leap frog
Three £2 bets won't be able to hide decent liquidity a now.
A large bet won't panic the market so no need for drip feeding any more.
They really should have put a clause into your forum reinstatement that you don't mention the interface! We get the concept. There is no need to repeat it at every opportunity. You are the Abba of the forum: interesting at first, but years later is repeating the same old stuff and won't go away.
lol slayer. Feck, I reckon if betfair took away our beloved transparency the purple place would become market leader within months.
What a nice thread this is,..... i didnt read it all through but i want to give my cents in terms of that gambling thing.
After nearly a year of intense research i finaly got my Betting Structure organized in a way that produces steady income..... its not even difficult or super scientific...... when you understand odds and Probability it comes down to a big fat equasion.
There a some downers though.
1. You wont get rich overnight,... sorry impossible
2. Making money on Football the sure fire way is **ing slow takes ages (if you are not a rich ** from the begining with a superfat bank !)
3. Discipline is a factor !! Maybe the most important one.
4. Its no more fun sadly.... just management.
5. Forgett about value !!! Thats religion !!
All in all i guess i would second most of the opening posting.
Cheers.
After nearly a year of intense research i finaly got my Betting Structure organized in a way that produces steady income..... its not even difficult or super scientific...... when you understand odds and Probability it comes down to a big fat equasion.
There a some downers though.
1. You wont get rich overnight,... sorry impossible
2. Making money on Football the sure fire way is **ing slow takes ages (if you are not a rich ** from the begining with a superfat bank !)
3. Discipline is a factor !! Maybe the most important one.
4. Its no more fun sadly.... just management.
5. Forgett about value !!! Thats religion !!
All in all i guess i would second most of the opening posting.
Cheers.
some good posts... nonetheless after having read and re read countless threads, ebooks, systems, tipsters, etc. and learning A LOT.... I still find myself losing my bank. Most frustrating thing is watching it grow slowly and steadily, thinking this is it, i got it right, im on track etc., and then suddenly and easily blow it in 1 or 2 bets. Congrats to all those who do profit, i still have some hope left by reading some pple here. GL
a dragon with no gold - don't despair as there is money to be made. But I'm not sure it is by following ebooks, systems and tipsters. If it were, I'm sure they would not need to sell there products.
I agree with Martin654 that it does not have to be super scientific - my own betting is down to using methodical staking whilst taking into account the probability of an event occuring at the odds on offer.
He is also correct, that it cannot be seen as a way to overnight riches. I have an annual target, and each month I will review my betting to ensure that I am on course to meet that target.
It does call for discipline, and yes, it does take some of the enjoyment out of the sport you are following - but then I have never enjoyed losing and would much rather have things dull and successful.
I've never been one to particularly wait for 'value'. Whilst you are waiting for that, you might have missed several other opportunities for a win.
In the final analysis a horse race is always won, tennis and cricket matches are always won and lost, and there can only be three possible outcomes in a football match.
I agree with Martin654 that it does not have to be super scientific - my own betting is down to using methodical staking whilst taking into account the probability of an event occuring at the odds on offer.
He is also correct, that it cannot be seen as a way to overnight riches. I have an annual target, and each month I will review my betting to ensure that I am on course to meet that target.
It does call for discipline, and yes, it does take some of the enjoyment out of the sport you are following - but then I have never enjoyed losing and would much rather have things dull and successful.
I've never been one to particularly wait for 'value'. Whilst you are waiting for that, you might have missed several other opportunities for a win.
In the final analysis a horse race is always won, tennis and cricket matches are always won and lost, and there can only be three possible outcomes in a football match.
In the final analysis a horse race is always won, tennis and cricket matches are always won and lost, and there can only be three possible outcomes in a football match.
bang on!
bang on!
They really should have put a clause into your forum reinstatement that you don't mention the interface! We get the concept. There is no need to repeat it at every opportunity. You are the Abba of the forum: interesting at first, but years later is repeating the same old stuff and won't go away.
I was answering a question from u25k regarding the interface. Next time I'm asked I'll seek your permission to answer. OK r sole?
I was answering a question from u25k regarding the interface. Next time I'm asked I'll seek your permission to answer. OK r sole?
Feck, I reckon if betfair took away our beloved transparency the purple place would become market leader within months.
Whose beloved transparency is it Fred? Anyone that matters?
Whose beloved transparency is it Fred? Anyone that matters?
Martin 654, thanks for your comments!
I am not quite sure what everyone is talking about at the moment as the thread seems to of gone away from where it started, still some very interesting ideas though!
All in all a pretty good read!
I am not quite sure what everyone is talking about at the moment as the thread seems to of gone away from where it started, still some very interesting ideas though!
All in all a pretty good read!
Just some more words on the Discipline issue:
Lets have a look in the Sporting Braga Game yesterday..... the early goal perfectly matched my "standard criteria" (maybe i will do an E Book on those sometime that goes over the table for lousy 100 $ :) )
But the game itself was a perfect example in terms of "Discipline failure" ..... before entering the game i was some % in Profit from previous betting,.... i wanted more so i took the first wrongful risk..... which was entering with a too big inital stake.
After the first goal i was in Profit even more..... it was time to box it and quit..... as the odds on the market went out of sync with the normal Probabilitys i made my second bad call.... staying in against the market..... ultimately that decision busted my winnings......
When i think about it afterwards it was once more the lack of discipline and the will to make unrealistic daily Profit.......
I cant stress it enough,...... but I KNOW i will do something similar in the future :)........
The important conclusion is the following:
Doing stuff like that can be considered normal weakness,... calculate it and dont do it with bank money,..... maybe one learns it as time goes by.......
Lets have a look in the Sporting Braga Game yesterday..... the early goal perfectly matched my "standard criteria" (maybe i will do an E Book on those sometime that goes over the table for lousy 100 $ :) )
But the game itself was a perfect example in terms of "Discipline failure" ..... before entering the game i was some % in Profit from previous betting,.... i wanted more so i took the first wrongful risk..... which was entering with a too big inital stake.
After the first goal i was in Profit even more..... it was time to box it and quit..... as the odds on the market went out of sync with the normal Probabilitys i made my second bad call.... staying in against the market..... ultimately that decision busted my winnings......
When i think about it afterwards it was once more the lack of discipline and the will to make unrealistic daily Profit.......
I cant stress it enough,...... but I KNOW i will do something similar in the future :)........
The important conclusion is the following:
Doing stuff like that can be considered normal weakness,... calculate it and dont do it with bank money,..... maybe one learns it as time goes by.......
Whose beloved transparency is it Fred? Anyone that matters?
It probably matters to those that generate the largest commission. Personally, I couldn't trade without transparency, but then I prefer crunching market data to form study.
I think seeing what offers are on the table are what makes this an exchange. (Not that betfair see themselves as an exchange anymore). Obfuscating the market will only move betfair further away from being an exchange.
It probably matters to those that generate the largest commission. Personally, I couldn't trade without transparency, but then I prefer crunching market data to form study.
I think seeing what offers are on the table are what makes this an exchange. (Not that betfair see themselves as an exchange anymore). Obfuscating the market will only move betfair further away from being an exchange.
Martin654:- I wasn't watching that market myself, but could it have been something to do with the liquidity in the market that caused things to move against you?
I find it difficult sometimes to trade in these 'short-term' events when there is not too much liquidity, and tend to find it easier to stick to backing and laying, and then await the outcome.
I find it difficult sometimes to trade in these 'short-term' events when there is not too much liquidity, and tend to find it easier to stick to backing and laying, and then await the outcome.
Well as i am no fulltime gambler the liquidity in the markets is not a big Problem for me (now)..... i normaly stake too small to run into Problems.
Besides that sadly as it is i always take the famous "technical Problems" into consideration..... i would never stake lets say 1000 Bucks into one event..... i always spread my money over many Football games.... so liquidity is not the big deal for me.
Besides that sadly as it is i always take the famous "technical Problems" into consideration..... i would never stake lets say 1000 Bucks into one event..... i always spread my money over many Football games.... so liquidity is not the big deal for me.
It probably matters to those that generate the largest commission. Personally, I couldn't trade without transparency, but then I prefer crunching market data to form study.
That's where we differ Fred. I don't think the queue being hidden would matter to those that generate the commission and the fact that you, and others whose 'opinion' comes from data crunching, couldn't trade without it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to either betfair or the rest of us. If you dispute that could you give me an example of a winning trade where you think you generated liquidity.
That's where we differ Fred. I don't think the queue being hidden would matter to those that generate the commission and the fact that you, and others whose 'opinion' comes from data crunching, couldn't trade without it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to either betfair or the rest of us. If you dispute that could you give me an example of a winning trade where you think you generated liquidity.
I started from scratch exactly one year ago. I've made 62k since. I consider myself a pro even though I work for a bookmaker. I intend to make at least 100k during the next year. The key to my profitability has been:
1. Application of Kelly staking.
2. Monitoring Betfair prices.
3. Monitoring the Asian market.
4. Focusing on a relatively obscure football league (attending matches etc) and providing info for a closed forum, hence getting useful info in return.
5. Building a network of contacts (pro bettors).
1. Application of Kelly staking.
2. Monitoring Betfair prices.
3. Monitoring the Asian market.
4. Focusing on a relatively obscure football league (attending matches etc) and providing info for a closed forum, hence getting useful info in return.
5. Building a network of contacts (pro bettors).
Only customers who generate commission will be allowed to bet?
I generate commission and add liquididty to many markets but the way that I do it would be impossible if I did not have access to the queue. I suspect there are many others like me. Like Feck I can think of ways that I could change the site to my benefit but accept that betfair want to optimise their profit, not mine.
Extractor
5 very good points there.
And it appears you have made an outstanding profit from the football market. I dont know much about the kelly system but if it works for you then well done, especially the high amount you are making.
Ive always looked at studying certain leagues and "eating, drinking, sleeping" them but i feel there are so many other areas where proift can be made so i tend, in my own lack of discipline way, to play most football leagues!
5 very good points there.
And it appears you have made an outstanding profit from the football market. I dont know much about the kelly system but if it works for you then well done, especially the high amount you are making.
Ive always looked at studying certain leagues and "eating, drinking, sleeping" them but i feel there are so many other areas where proift can be made so i tend, in my own lack of discipline way, to play most football leagues!
I generate commission and add liquididty to many markets but the way that I do it would be impossible if I did not have access to the queue.
Given the words in bold I'd gues you neither add liquidity or generate commision. Feel free to give me an example proving me wrong.
Like Feck I can think of ways that I could change the site to my benefit but accept that betfair want to optimise their profit, not mine.
I wouldn't even bother making the suggestion if I didn't think it would optimise betfair's profits.
Given the words in bold I'd gues you neither add liquidity or generate commision. Feel free to give me an example proving me wrong.
Like Feck I can think of ways that I could change the site to my benefit but accept that betfair want to optimise their profit, not mine.
I wouldn't even bother making the suggestion if I didn't think it would optimise betfair's profits.
Just a tip my betting strategy is based on betting as much games as possible and does not depend on Gamestats (though i use stats to maximize Profits !).
And it only works for IN Play Markets.
All i do is abusing Probability and odds relations (basicaly).....
This is one of the reasons why i hate days like today,... only 4 In Play markets.......the good thing is that i have a 100% strike rate so far (2 Winners 1 Break even).
At the moment i try to maintaine discipline box my 12 % Profits and not start gambling,.... its so hard fellas :)
And it only works for IN Play Markets.
All i do is abusing Probability and odds relations (basicaly).....
This is one of the reasons why i hate days like today,... only 4 In Play markets.......the good thing is that i have a 100% strike rate so far (2 Winners 1 Break even).
At the moment i try to maintaine discipline box my 12 % Profits and not start gambling,.... its so hard fellas :)
Forgott to mention that i avoided one game :)..... for no specific reason except that it is not on the Betfair Livescore
So, Martin654, does it have anything to do with laying at low odds then??
That's where we differ Fred. I don't think the queue being hidden would matter to those that generate the commission and the fact that you, and others whose 'opinion' comes from data crunching, couldn't trade without it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to either betfair or the rest of us. If you dispute that could you give me an example of a winning trade where you think you generated liquidity.
Truth is, even if the queue was hidden I'd still make money, I'd just do it differently. I'm old and wise enough to know that. Sorry for the confusion, when I said trading I just meant my general betting activity, not my method.
People put bets up and I take some of them. I put bets up and others take some of them. Is that liquidity? I'm currently on 3% commission and making betfair more money than I make for myself.
Truth is, even if the queue was hidden I'd still make money, I'd just do it differently. I'm old and wise enough to know that. Sorry for the confusion, when I said trading I just meant my general betting activity, not my method.
People put bets up and I take some of them. I put bets up and others take some of them. Is that liquidity? I'm currently on 3% commission and making betfair more money than I make for myself.
People put bets up and I take some of them. I put bets up and others take some of them. Is that liquidity?
It depends Fred. Someone matching an offer and then putting up the same offer seconds later (minus a slither) does not IMO supply liquidity or generate commission. If you're on 3% and your M.O. is not dependent on the queue being visible then, at a guess, I'd say you do supply liquidity.
It depends Fred. Someone matching an offer and then putting up the same offer seconds later (minus a slither) does not IMO supply liquidity or generate commission. If you're on 3% and your M.O. is not dependent on the queue being visible then, at a guess, I'd say you do supply liquidity.
I think it takes a special kind of freak to be able to make money in this game, in life I am quite lazy by nature, but am also a researchaholic, I have to find out about everything and I am ultra competitive/hate to lose and have great believe in myself and my opinions.......these attributes make me ideal for making this game pay imo :)
@ TheOneThatGotAway
Well partly yes small odds are involved in the final stage of my strategy.....
Maybe you already figuered this out by yourself, but here's the deal.
Step 1: You do some betting / Probability magic of my own receipe :).
Step 2: You view all your winners and wait for the final phase of the game.....
Step 3: You begin buying the lowest availiable odds on your preferred market solely with previous Profits on events that you consider not to be completly unlikely.
Step 4: Always calculate your balance for your desired Profits,... dont buy to much dont buy sensless ones (well maybe sometimes even buying hopless odds can be rewarding because they are cheap !)
Step 5: be happy :).
The most important one is step 1 though :) ... and of course solving the well known "0:0 FT Problem"..... figuering that out has cost me many nights without sleep :(.....
Good luck
Well partly yes small odds are involved in the final stage of my strategy.....
Maybe you already figuered this out by yourself, but here's the deal.
Step 1: You do some betting / Probability magic of my own receipe :).
Step 2: You view all your winners and wait for the final phase of the game.....
Step 3: You begin buying the lowest availiable odds on your preferred market solely with previous Profits on events that you consider not to be completly unlikely.
Step 4: Always calculate your balance for your desired Profits,... dont buy to much dont buy sensless ones (well maybe sometimes even buying hopless odds can be rewarding because they are cheap !)
Step 5: be happy :).
The most important one is step 1 though :) ... and of course solving the well known "0:0 FT Problem"..... figuering that out has cost me many nights without sleep :(.....
Good luck
As many on here have stated, it's as much to do with psychology as strategy. You can have a perfectly sound money making method, but if you crap yourself the moment the inevitable torrid spell comes along, it counts for nothing. Don't let anyone tell you it can't be done though - it most certainly can, but you'll need a strategy that's proven first on paper over a lengthy period, then with real stakes. Endeavour to build your capital in your spare time from profits. If you can't manage to do this, then you've no place being a professional anyway. I can certainly appreciate how many people with commitments would be averse to going full-time however. I make a decent living, but have no family to support and therefore far less pressure. I've been doing this long enough now to be quite secure financially - my house is paid for and capital is not a problem, so over time you can reach a stage where pressure becomes less and less (if you are sensible with your profits!). That said, this can then give rise to a tendency for complacency to creep in, and that can be a huge enemy of the professional. This is yet another pitfall that needs to be combated.
Some personalities will just not be suited to the life. You do have to be a particular sort of person to hack it. You don't want to lose your nerve every time a bad spell erupts and by the same token should not be too confident when things are going well.
But I would not say that nobody should do this. I for one hated my previous career as a probation officer and love my independence and autonomy. It might seem like an insecure existence, but who's lives aren't these days? At least I get to live or die on the strength of my own decisions. Working for someone else, you have limited control over your own life and can be on the scrapheap at any time with very little say about it.
But ultimately, however you want to spend your time on Betfair, never stop wanting to learn!
Good luck guys.
:)
Some personalities will just not be suited to the life. You do have to be a particular sort of person to hack it. You don't want to lose your nerve every time a bad spell erupts and by the same token should not be too confident when things are going well.
But I would not say that nobody should do this. I for one hated my previous career as a probation officer and love my independence and autonomy. It might seem like an insecure existence, but who's lives aren't these days? At least I get to live or die on the strength of my own decisions. Working for someone else, you have limited control over your own life and can be on the scrapheap at any time with very little say about it.
But ultimately, however you want to spend your time on Betfair, never stop wanting to learn!
Good luck guys.
:)
weary wizard i agree entirely, in fact u seem to be in same position as me with yr life on here. im 41and been involved in gambling for 25 yrs and now afer 6 yrs on here have no financial worries as my house is now paid for etc. very few will make it pay on here however, and even though i personally love watching sport and making a book in running, for many it will be a lonely lifestyle and the road to ruin.
Trust me guys,... it cant get worse than beeing a lawyer :)
I'm constantly learning that finding a system/strategy to gain profit isnt a problem.
The problem is dealing with the situation when it goes against you. That is when your strategy and discipline has to be rock solid, but you also have to flexible enough to be able to read the situation and adapt with confidence.
In a nutshell dont try and make money, try not to lose it.
My problem is .... I'm allergic to nuts
The problem is dealing with the situation when it goes against you. That is when your strategy and discipline has to be rock solid, but you also have to flexible enough to be able to read the situation and adapt with confidence.
In a nutshell dont try and make money, try not to lose it.
My problem is .... I'm allergic to nuts
I have said this many times, but nobody takes it seriously. If you have an edge, but a problem with discipline/chasing, simply don't look at the results! There is then nothing to trigger you emotionally. At the end of the month take a peek, but not before.
duncan idaho
it can't be done
If only we had a pound for every one who posted such a comment, the premise being "well I'm doing my cobblers, so everyone else must be!"
Remember the old saying: whether you think you can, or whether you think you can't - you're probably right!
it can't be done
If only we had a pound for every one who posted such a comment, the premise being "well I'm doing my cobblers, so everyone else must be!"
Remember the old saying: whether you think you can, or whether you think you can't - you're probably right!
After five years full time on Betfair I now live in a house made of the finest cardboard.
pumpkinslayerII 04 Sep 00:34
I have said this many times, but nobody takes it seriously. If you have an edge, but a problem with discipline/chasing, simply don't look at the results! There is then nothing to trigger you emotionally. At the end of the month take a peek, but not before.
I first thought this was a good idea at first but thinking again I don't think that anyone who has a problem with discipline will be able to go for a month without looking at the results.
I feel that 'discipline' is the biggest quality needed to be a full-time gambler on here. If you have discipline then you are in a minority group, the long term winners will only come from this minority, if you have an edge and discipline then you are guaranteed success. I think that from the majority group with no discipline there will be a large number who have an edge in certain markets but will never profit due to discipline, the others are hopeless gamblers on both counts. The successful pro gamblers prob don't put any more work/time in than losers and may not even have an edge as large as a loser but the pro's have that factor that some people could never improve on...disipline.
I have said this many times, but nobody takes it seriously. If you have an edge, but a problem with discipline/chasing, simply don't look at the results! There is then nothing to trigger you emotionally. At the end of the month take a peek, but not before.
I first thought this was a good idea at first but thinking again I don't think that anyone who has a problem with discipline will be able to go for a month without looking at the results.
I feel that 'discipline' is the biggest quality needed to be a full-time gambler on here. If you have discipline then you are in a minority group, the long term winners will only come from this minority, if you have an edge and discipline then you are guaranteed success. I think that from the majority group with no discipline there will be a large number who have an edge in certain markets but will never profit due to discipline, the others are hopeless gamblers on both counts. The successful pro gamblers prob don't put any more work/time in than losers and may not even have an edge as large as a loser but the pro's have that factor that some people could never improve on...disipline.
Discipline doesn't have to be self imposed. My brother imposes my limits for me and I have no choice.
To be fair poor discipline doesn't really cost you that much in well formed markets anyway. Probably your commission rate plus maybe the overround. Whenever I go on a wild chase and do my dough, I always remind him (and the wife) that it only really cost me x% of the bet.
To be fair poor discipline doesn't really cost you that much in well formed markets anyway. Probably your commission rate plus maybe the overround. Whenever I go on a wild chase and do my dough, I always remind him (and the wife) that it only really cost me x% of the bet.
it doesn't matter if the markets are well formed or not, if you've not discipline then you will lose. If you stake too high when chasing or simply bet too much of your bank each time then you will lose. If someone can help with the discipline by them controlloing your limits then thats the way to go. If your friend splits your bank up into daily amounts then you will still fail if you stake too high or go all-in with your daily bank, it will just take longer. DFC noted that koo has done well from setting daily targets and he does occ go all in with his daily bank, but only when he feels the horse he is confident of winning/losing is available at good odds. There is nothing wrong with having a large bet if you feel its justified and not just to retrieve previous losses etc.
Hi jeski ...Koo does not set himself daily targets ....he just operates with his small bank ...think that is up to £30,000 now.
He backs and lays when he thinks he has an edge , for whatever reason,...but set s value odds on his lays and grabs what he can on backs ........
In fact the poster before you on here might be Kooooooooooooooooooooooo :D
He backs and lays when he thinks he has an edge , for whatever reason,...but set s value odds on his lays and grabs what he can on backs ........
In fact the poster before you on here might be Kooooooooooooooooooooooo :D
wrong words used there DFC...meant daily banks/limits.
TAGGART back on......but you may have been talking with Koo re NCNS.......
G M the nooooooooooooooooooooooo
G M the nooooooooooooooooooooooo
Todays outcomes gave me a perfect example that i still suffer from disciplinary Problems....... i pushed exit marks cause i believed in the stats and ultimatly i have to admit that i just wanted things to happen.
I am done now with my analysy of todays mistakes,..... if i had sticked emotionless to my system it would have generated a very small loss on one occasion not even a scratch..... few % of Profits.
Changing stuff based on emotional stress was costly for me today,.... but it was not completly worthless... i learnd that in case of a loosing run i will inevitably get **ed up if i dont execute my patterns down to the very last detail.
Was a good lesson,...... and besides that:
My **ing over multiple for loss chasing just came in :)...... puhhhh,.....
I am done now with my analysy of todays mistakes,..... if i had sticked emotionless to my system it would have generated a very small loss on one occasion not even a scratch..... few % of Profits.
Changing stuff based on emotional stress was costly for me today,.... but it was not completly worthless... i learnd that in case of a loosing run i will inevitably get **ed up if i dont execute my patterns down to the very last detail.
Was a good lesson,...... and besides that:
My **ing over multiple for loss chasing just came in :)...... puhhhh,.....
Yeah what i wanted to stress is it all came down to discipline once more,.... the Human factor was the bug !
thebettingthief.com
looks like someones got it covered looks a pro punter and posts picks of his bets on the site so he aint some two bob liar.
looks like someones got it covered looks a pro punter and posts picks of his bets on the site so he aint some two bob liar.
I think ego is the key, or rather lack of ego. You see so many people with a lot of ego invested in this, who brag on the forums about wins, who blindly stick to their selections in play, not thinking rationally because being "right" and distorting their perception of events in play to fit their own selection is more important, even when the evidence if viewed objectively would say the opposite outcome is more likely.
If you pay less focus to having to be right, to reacting to what unfolds in front of you with a clear head, to being able to easily admit you're wrong with your initial selection and cutting out, then you stand a much better chance. The other thing is the bigger your ego is in this, the more it then has to be fed, the less tolerant it is of losses (even minor ones) and the greater danger of then crossing the line into problem gambling sooner or later.
If you pay less focus to having to be right, to reacting to what unfolds in front of you with a clear head, to being able to easily admit you're wrong with your initial selection and cutting out, then you stand a much better chance. The other thing is the bigger your ego is in this, the more it then has to be fed, the less tolerant it is of losses (even minor ones) and the greater danger of then crossing the line into problem gambling sooner or later.
deeper - not sure if u are full time but what u said stopped many people who are capable of doing it for a living actually doing it. u obviously are a smart guy.
Traders commission discussion
- in practice many traders end up taking positions more than they would like or rationally intend. They get caught in bad trades, they chase, they get tempted, they make mistakes. Check the tennis forum - the number of "traders" who end up taking big positions once painted into a corner is quite high.
Overall traders pay plenty of commission.
Postion takers with value can be thankful traders are there to give liquidity.
- in practice many traders end up taking positions more than they would like or rationally intend. They get caught in bad trades, they chase, they get tempted, they make mistakes. Check the tennis forum - the number of "traders" who end up taking big positions once painted into a corner is quite high.
Overall traders pay plenty of commission.
Postion takers with value can be thankful traders are there to give liquidity.
I drive up and down the motorway all day and get paid over £500 pw i would not be able to make that on befair.
Postion takers with value can be thankful traders are there to give liquidity
ROFPML
ROFPML
Not read the full thread so excuse me if im duplicating. My advice would be to spend 2 years and not have a bet but back on paper without the risk. Keep a spreadsheet on how you did and they you have the answer with no risk. Whats a couple of years if you get it right after that time.
That might work but it's not the same betting on paper, the main problems for people like discipline/chasing etc are less of a problem on paper, the same as betting in your spare time is completely different to betting for a living. Also 2 years is a long time things could change dramatically in that time. A lot of people paint a rosy picture of being professional, but after a while it might become the same tedious job, bored, isolated, sat in front of the computer working for Betfair all day.
c20 , whats boring about watching sport all day if thats yr passion. ok so u are in front of a pc and isolated at times, but u dont bet all day everyday unless u arent being selective. u have freedom to come and go as u please, have no one to answer to, can meet people socially that u want to, as opposed to working with people u may not like. i cant think of a better job if u are successful as well.
agree with callataxi i play off percentages,and have faith in my strategy,you have to be flexible and positive,the mind is most peculiar,and must be listened to.
agree with callatax love watching sport and although sitting watching it all day is sometimes boring it is better than sitting in an office or teaching unmotivated teenagers (that i used to do). Loved watching murray win today gave be great pleasure the fact i made money from it was incidental
I'd be interested to know if any who've made the switch from part to full time have noticed a different in their strategies or mentality?
If you HAVE to make money, and have nothing to fall back on, I don't see how that won't impact on your trading at some stage, and therefore you will at times not be thinking straight maybe, maybe worrying about how to pay the bills in a slow month instead of fully focusing on the trading itself?
If you HAVE to make money, and have nothing to fall back on, I don't see how that won't impact on your trading at some stage, and therefore you will at times not be thinking straight maybe, maybe worrying about how to pay the bills in a slow month instead of fully focusing on the trading itself?
My trading tends to fall into cycles when things are going well and i have more than enough money to pay bills etc then i relax and trade rationally not really worrying if have a day or so without money as know it will come soon (from years of doing this ). Find the biggest danger when you are making a good amount of money is to assume you will continue to make money at that level ad infinitum. So you spend the money you have assuming there will be the same amount in weeks to come. Then when there is a week with less money (rarely non at all just less) things seems a striuggle and you then feel pressure. Find you need to take a step back and put it in perspective (as i continually tell my wife) I still make much more money than i did in my ft job (which wasn't near enough to support 4 kids) so overall its better think someitmes when at times you can seemingly have money whenever you want it is easy to get carried away and lose perspective. People assume professional gamblers are loaded all the time - the reality is sometimes its really good but not always and sometimes like most people you are waiting for the next "pay packet" At least for me it is better than what i had and i enjoy it more - tha is good enough
http://www.ilgrattacielo.net VERY BEST SITE HORSE RACING US LIVE LIVE LIVE !!!!!!! TOUCH SPORT E SCOMMESSE / HORSE
deeper in debt 07 Sep 23:51
I'd be interested to know if any who've made the switch from part to full time have noticed a different in their strategies or mentality?
If you HAVE to make money, and have nothing to fall back on, I don't see how that won't impact on your trading at some stage, and therefore you will at times not be thinking straight maybe, maybe worrying about how to pay the bills in a slow month instead of fully focusing on the trading itself
Assuming that you are making good money part-time, the switch to full-time should be no problem at all.
There are so many advantages -
greater game selection, more time to study the markets, tiredness not so much of a factor, more time to explore other profitable markets etc
the problems may occur if you aren't making enough to justify going full-time or you need to spend too long on here to reach a decent income
I'd be interested to know if any who've made the switch from part to full time have noticed a different in their strategies or mentality?
If you HAVE to make money, and have nothing to fall back on, I don't see how that won't impact on your trading at some stage, and therefore you will at times not be thinking straight maybe, maybe worrying about how to pay the bills in a slow month instead of fully focusing on the trading itself
Assuming that you are making good money part-time, the switch to full-time should be no problem at all.
There are so many advantages -
greater game selection, more time to study the markets, tiredness not so much of a factor, more time to explore other profitable markets etc
the problems may occur if you aren't making enough to justify going full-time or you need to spend too long on here to reach a decent income
deeper in debt 07 Sep 23:51
I'd be interested to know if any who've made the switch from part to full time have noticed a different in their strategies or mentality?
If you HAVE to make money, and have nothing to fall back on, I don't see how that won't impact on your trading at some stage, and therefore you will at times not be thinking straight maybe, maybe worrying about how to pay the bills in a slow month instead of fully focusing on the trading itself?
i was part time 3 years and have now been full time for 3 yrs. i havent changed my strategies very much. i wouldnt recommend anyone doing this full time until they have done at least 2 yrs on here and have plenty of money to fall back on and also ideally cleared their mortgage.
I'd be interested to know if any who've made the switch from part to full time have noticed a different in their strategies or mentality?
If you HAVE to make money, and have nothing to fall back on, I don't see how that won't impact on your trading at some stage, and therefore you will at times not be thinking straight maybe, maybe worrying about how to pay the bills in a slow month instead of fully focusing on the trading itself?
i was part time 3 years and have now been full time for 3 yrs. i havent changed my strategies very much. i wouldnt recommend anyone doing this full time until they have done at least 2 yrs on here and have plenty of money to fall back on and also ideally cleared their mortgage.
I havent read all of the thread and there are many good points here and a few bad ones too.
There are a couple of major things to making this pay full-time
I found out the hard way,lost a not so small fortune in the first few years on here,but as i had a decent job it was only a fun pastime.However i decided to emigrate just over a year ago and found that not only did i have no income but so much spare time i was getting bored ! So looked at my love of horseracing as a way of making a living and filling in that spare time.
Only this time i looked at it as a business
1. Discipline as everyone states is number 1. if you cant control your emotions and your staking then forget doing this for a living
2. Patience goes along with it too-as i mainly back the bigger price horses then it can be a long sometimes painful wait to get that winner (26 losers is a row is my record !!! ) although the shortest price i backed was around 5/1
3.Nerve-you need balls of steel too :)
4. Family-you need total support from your wife.This is a running a business .You will spend 10-12 hours per day stuck on the pc and cant have any distractions
5. Money-
iT CAN BE DONE with a bank of £1000
£30k per year income from gambling TAX FREE is £100 per day (allowing for Sunday off and a short holiday )
There are 20-50 horse races per day if you include the US racing,so you only need to average between £2 and £5 profit per race
Obviously the more cash available the better,and preferably be debt free before trying !
6. Dont forget to have some fun in Life too :)
There are a couple of major things to making this pay full-time
I found out the hard way,lost a not so small fortune in the first few years on here,but as i had a decent job it was only a fun pastime.However i decided to emigrate just over a year ago and found that not only did i have no income but so much spare time i was getting bored ! So looked at my love of horseracing as a way of making a living and filling in that spare time.
Only this time i looked at it as a business
1. Discipline as everyone states is number 1. if you cant control your emotions and your staking then forget doing this for a living
2. Patience goes along with it too-as i mainly back the bigger price horses then it can be a long sometimes painful wait to get that winner (26 losers is a row is my record !!! ) although the shortest price i backed was around 5/1
3.Nerve-you need balls of steel too :)
4. Family-you need total support from your wife.This is a running a business .You will spend 10-12 hours per day stuck on the pc and cant have any distractions
5. Money-
iT CAN BE DONE with a bank of £1000
£30k per year income from gambling TAX FREE is £100 per day (allowing for Sunday off and a short holiday )
There are 20-50 horse races per day if you include the US racing,so you only need to average between £2 and £5 profit per race
Obviously the more cash available the better,and preferably be debt free before trying !
6. Dont forget to have some fun in Life too :)
Horts 08 Sep 11:10
There are 20-50 horse races per day if you include the US racing,so you only need to average between £2 and £5 profit per race
I have been saying this for ages. With a clear head,its achievable. Also eliminates the wild swings in P/L,which then leads on to other problems. Before long the whole thing is getting out of control.
There are 20-50 horse races per day if you include the US racing,so you only need to average between £2 and £5 profit per race
I have been saying this for ages. With a clear head,its achievable. Also eliminates the wild swings in P/L,which then leads on to other problems. Before long the whole thing is getting out of control.
Horts - Did you ever try LAYING horses in WIN market?
Someone who is obviously very good at finding good odds winners, I would have thought they should be able to spot a horse that was unlikely to win pretty quickly.
Backing is far harder to do, and more rewarding when you get the winner and you have been proved "right"...........however, it does take far more time to appraise a race to find a good odds winner.
I am more interested in finding the winner, as it is a "puzzle" I like to solve.........BUT it does take time and ,although the return on investment is far higher than a LAYER gets, that time is a huge chunk of your life if doing "professionally" I would have thought.
Certainly as a BACKER you would need a minimum of £1,000 to back the odds of horses you go for.........however, a LAYER should not need as large an amount if their judgment is good enough.
My target is to build up to a bank of £1,000 for BACKING purposes, but initially will be laying in win market to build a small bank up.
I suspect I might find that LAYING horses is so much easier to do ( though it is less satisfying and BORING) , not so time consuming, that I can have the mornings to get outside more and enjoy life, get fitter ...get away from computer etc etc........................that I might put the BACKING on the backing burner for a good while to enjoy the sunshine while it lasts.
Just curious about someone like yourself who is really into BACKING good odds horses and whether you are tried the "easier" laying side?????
Someone who is obviously very good at finding good odds winners, I would have thought they should be able to spot a horse that was unlikely to win pretty quickly.
Backing is far harder to do, and more rewarding when you get the winner and you have been proved "right"...........however, it does take far more time to appraise a race to find a good odds winner.
I am more interested in finding the winner, as it is a "puzzle" I like to solve.........BUT it does take time and ,although the return on investment is far higher than a LAYER gets, that time is a huge chunk of your life if doing "professionally" I would have thought.
Certainly as a BACKER you would need a minimum of £1,000 to back the odds of horses you go for.........however, a LAYER should not need as large an amount if their judgment is good enough.
My target is to build up to a bank of £1,000 for BACKING purposes, but initially will be laying in win market to build a small bank up.
I suspect I might find that LAYING horses is so much easier to do ( though it is less satisfying and BORING) , not so time consuming, that I can have the mornings to get outside more and enjoy life, get fitter ...get away from computer etc etc........................that I might put the BACKING on the backing burner for a good while to enjoy the sunshine while it lasts.
Just curious about someone like yourself who is really into BACKING good odds horses and whether you are tried the "easier" laying side?????
Nobody in their right mind would play with a 20% deduction on winnings.
DFC
I experimented with laying a few years ago and that is where i lost a lot of money !
Now i will only lay if a horse is under 2.0 on UK or 3.0 on US and i will also back a horse to win in that situation as well,maximising profit if i get it correct and reducing the risk if my selection to back loses.If the one i lay does win as it is short odds then it doesnt prove too expensive either
I cannot see the point of risking a large amount of money laying for a small return,especially as on BF the odds of horses are actually higher than they should be,Quite often a horse that is 4/1 on course is trading around 6/1 here so no value to lay-but maybe great value to back instead
When you look at the bigger price horses,which i back i often can back a 12/1 shot at 20/1 :)
I am risking a small amount to gain a lot,not a large amount to gain little
Good Luck
I experimented with laying a few years ago and that is where i lost a lot of money !
Now i will only lay if a horse is under 2.0 on UK or 3.0 on US and i will also back a horse to win in that situation as well,maximising profit if i get it correct and reducing the risk if my selection to back loses.If the one i lay does win as it is short odds then it doesnt prove too expensive either
I cannot see the point of risking a large amount of money laying for a small return,especially as on BF the odds of horses are actually higher than they should be,Quite often a horse that is 4/1 on course is trading around 6/1 here so no value to lay-but maybe great value to back instead
When you look at the bigger price horses,which i back i often can back a 12/1 shot at 20/1 :)
I am risking a small amount to gain a lot,not a large amount to gain little
Good Luck
Thanks for reply Horts.
I think laying in WIN market at sharp end is particularly dodgy, and I am unlikely to dabble there much. I can well see how most would be burned at the low odds end , no matter how good they are .
As the bank is small, it is easier for me to find a loser in each race........if the odds should be higher IMO , and I see reasons at a glance as to why a horse is unlikely to win, then it is just a LAY.
Will try this for a while and see how it goes.
GL with bets today.
I think laying in WIN market at sharp end is particularly dodgy, and I am unlikely to dabble there much. I can well see how most would be burned at the low odds end , no matter how good they are .
As the bank is small, it is easier for me to find a loser in each race........if the odds should be higher IMO , and I see reasons at a glance as to why a horse is unlikely to win, then it is just a LAY.
Will try this for a while and see how it goes.
GL with bets today.
would have no interest in doing it full time, too solitary and too lonely, part time and show a profit is fine and enjoy the challenge!!
^ Depends on the type of person you are. Some people need people, others are quite happy not to be bothered. People who use that as an excuse dont tend to see that, terrible excuse to use in general terms.
excuse, err no, i don't detest work, and ai do not want to be on betfair as a full time occupation, preference not excuse
Thats what I meant though, probably came across a bit harsh sorry. But some people absolutely love it, me :D
So in general terms the idea of 'being online 24/7 having no would to talk to is a bad thing' is a personal view.
I have loads of time for the family, but when I bet I like to be left alone, they understand to not bother me mid guessing on the cricket so its all good :D
So in general terms the idea of 'being online 24/7 having no would to talk to is a bad thing' is a personal view.
I have loads of time for the family, but when I bet I like to be left alone, they understand to not bother me mid guessing on the cricket so its all good :D
doyler, maybe we at cross purposes, so much crap on here, i am a realist and know what i can do and can't do at this point, hope its working for you and u are making money
Everyones different fleetingglimpse, hope youre making a few quid too :D
You speak a lot of sense with knowing what you can and cant do, I know exactly the sports not to bet on and which ones to kick on with. I've set staking plans for in running and pre-off. Been finding it a lot harder pre-off so lowered the stakes there for the time being, while leaving the in running stakes the same. Hopefully it ups the profits anyway but sure I'll never run out of time trying to find perfection. :D
I find it much harder when I'm not involved each day though, even if I dont have a bet, watch a race or match and watch the market. Myself and the girlfriend dont have kids either so theres no real pressure on me you know.
You speak a lot of sense with knowing what you can and cant do, I know exactly the sports not to bet on and which ones to kick on with. I've set staking plans for in running and pre-off. Been finding it a lot harder pre-off so lowered the stakes there for the time being, while leaving the in running stakes the same. Hopefully it ups the profits anyway but sure I'll never run out of time trying to find perfection. :D
I find it much harder when I'm not involved each day though, even if I dont have a bet, watch a race or match and watch the market. Myself and the girlfriend dont have kids either so theres no real pressure on me you know.
doyler, yep, have to stick to the markets you know, keep searching for the holy grail mate, one day we will crack it
good read, lots of decent thoughts amongst that :)
I think the mistake most people make is assuming it's about finding one edge and exploiting it.
Edges come and go, it's about finding edges repeatedly and exploiting them while they're there. Anyone who has the time and is smart enough to click the forum button can probably work out a way to make a few quid on something they understand very well. The difficult part is maintaining the motivation to keep looking for new ways to win, because you can guarantee your current ones won't last forever.... you're not the only one looking.
Edges come and go, it's about finding edges repeatedly and exploiting them while they're there. Anyone who has the time and is smart enough to click the forum button can probably work out a way to make a few quid on something they understand very well. The difficult part is maintaining the motivation to keep looking for new ways to win, because you can guarantee your current ones won't last forever.... you're not the only one looking.
Sounds like massive para phrasing going on. I think the biggest mistake people make is listening to other people's advice and then passing it off as their own. Do people even know what an 'edge' is??? I'm not sure I do, you know, when I REALLY think about it. Backing a team and them winnng at a good price is all you need to know.
Do people even know what an 'edge' is?
Er- yes. It's the difference between the frequency of an ocurrence and the predicted frequency of that occurrence (as expressed in the odds). If I took 2000 bets at 2 and won 1100 of them then my edge would have been 10% (obviously it's never really that much).
Er- yes. It's the difference between the frequency of an ocurrence and the predicted frequency of that occurrence (as expressed in the odds). If I took 2000 bets at 2 and won 1100 of them then my edge would have been 10% (obviously it's never really that much).
If that piece of advice has already been given then I apologise.
If you can't calculate your edge then you're either very good at gut feel, or you're going to end up losing. While there are some amazing gut feel gamblers out there, they are rare. I spend something like 16 hours a week reading box scores, 20 hours a week making spreadsheets and the rest of the time either hunting for the best prices or trading events in running mixed in with the occasional and all too rare hour of sleep ;)
This gives me a good feel for things in general and also tempers that feel with some maths backup. It gives a decent mix of gut and maths that has worked well for me.
No matter what your methods, the more time you spend on them the better they will be. Even the "gut" guys spend a lot of time watching or reading about their chosen subjects. The straight maths guys will know their edges incredibly accurately and will have the advantage of being able to bet slightly bigger because of it, on the downside the edges gained by maths guys are eroded faster as they're easier to unearth.
As you say, everyone should do what works for them, but to say that it's not worth reading the advice who have been doing it for years is incorrect. Those who have been doing it for years read the advice of others who have been doing the same. The willingness to admit weaknesses in your own outlook is fundamental when gambling.
If you can't calculate your edge then you're either very good at gut feel, or you're going to end up losing. While there are some amazing gut feel gamblers out there, they are rare. I spend something like 16 hours a week reading box scores, 20 hours a week making spreadsheets and the rest of the time either hunting for the best prices or trading events in running mixed in with the occasional and all too rare hour of sleep ;)
This gives me a good feel for things in general and also tempers that feel with some maths backup. It gives a decent mix of gut and maths that has worked well for me.
No matter what your methods, the more time you spend on them the better they will be. Even the "gut" guys spend a lot of time watching or reading about their chosen subjects. The straight maths guys will know their edges incredibly accurately and will have the advantage of being able to bet slightly bigger because of it, on the downside the edges gained by maths guys are eroded faster as they're easier to unearth.
As you say, everyone should do what works for them, but to say that it's not worth reading the advice who have been doing it for years is incorrect. Those who have been doing it for years read the advice of others who have been doing the same. The willingness to admit weaknesses in your own outlook is fundamental when gambling.
Lori speaks a monumental amount of sense.
I'm a gut feel gambler, but have set stakes also, because obviously I can get too confident at times. But hes bang on, I'd spend hours watching/reading/doing absolutely anything to give me more knowledge on the sports I bet on. If I didnt have a bet on something and wasnt busy I'd watch the market to try and still get an understanding of whats going on.
Every bet goes into excel, I thought football was my best sport a year ago, its actually my worst and have since given up. I love golf, excel says I'm useless at it. Excel says this month I've been pants pre-off but good in running, so lowered stakes pre-off. Excel says one of my top sports is boxing, I wasnt taking it seriously before.
Markets change though, I once was great in the place market, now cant get anything out of it and have to find other ways of doing things.
Everyones different and everyone is entitled to a view on things. Although I dont like the too certain of things type people, people tend to forget that for every bet they do theres someone on the other end matching you. Does that make them a mug because theyve gone against you? Definitely not. When youre backing something you make a great bet, theres some bloke laying it that makes it a great lay. I often wonder why theres so many rows on here about stuff because if we all agreed there'd be no market, but anyway thats for another day.
I'm a gut feel gambler, but have set stakes also, because obviously I can get too confident at times. But hes bang on, I'd spend hours watching/reading/doing absolutely anything to give me more knowledge on the sports I bet on. If I didnt have a bet on something and wasnt busy I'd watch the market to try and still get an understanding of whats going on.
Every bet goes into excel, I thought football was my best sport a year ago, its actually my worst and have since given up. I love golf, excel says I'm useless at it. Excel says this month I've been pants pre-off but good in running, so lowered stakes pre-off. Excel says one of my top sports is boxing, I wasnt taking it seriously before.
Markets change though, I once was great in the place market, now cant get anything out of it and have to find other ways of doing things.
Everyones different and everyone is entitled to a view on things. Although I dont like the too certain of things type people, people tend to forget that for every bet they do theres someone on the other end matching you. Does that make them a mug because theyve gone against you? Definitely not. When youre backing something you make a great bet, theres some bloke laying it that makes it a great lay. I often wonder why theres so many rows on here about stuff because if we all agreed there'd be no market, but anyway thats for another day.
The layers are the people who got in quicker than you and want to get out. Don't feel sorry for them. You're doing the same.
'Even the "gut" guys spend a lot of time watching or reading about their chosen subjects.'
agree that the 'gut' guys probably put in more leg work/hours than anyone else
agree that the 'gut' guys probably put in more leg work/hours than anyone else
'I often wonder why theres so many rows on here about stuff '
Maybe cos (people like) you jump on someone who has just expressed a personal opinion and tell them that's a 'terrible excuse' and only a personal opinion (as above re. fleetingglimpse!)
Maybe cos (people like) you jump on someone who has just expressed a personal opinion and tell them that's a 'terrible excuse' and only a personal opinion (as above re. fleetingglimpse!)
Doyler1987 23 Nov 23:59
Lori speaks a monumental amount of sense.
I would have not put it quite that way and while I bend my mind around sensible monuments I would just like to demonstrate to duncan that some of us get on.
Don't Worry be Happy by Bobby McFerrin is always helpful if you feel an element of stress coming along.
Lori speaks a monumental amount of sense.
I would have not put it quite that way and while I bend my mind around sensible monuments I would just like to demonstrate to duncan that some of us get on.
Don't Worry be Happy by Bobby McFerrin is always helpful if you feel an element of stress coming along.
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