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Doyler1987
22 Nov 09 12:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 Mar 09
| Topic/replies: 5,375 | Blogger: Doyler1987's blog
Lads, just wondering which was the best option.. laying to a fixed liability or a fixed stake?

I was thinking fixed liability but then should you be laying an evens shot for €100 and a 10/1 for a tenner? That said I'd rather not have the fixed stake option and have the €1,000 liability on the 10/1 shot you know.

Also, whats the best option for keeping records? A points way or actually money? And how long should I test it? Would from now until January be long enough to start betting money?

Basically think I've found a pants tipster and want to lay all the tips, thats where the idea is coming from..

All help greatly appreciated.
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Report Bung It On November 22, 2009 2:00 PM GMT
have you considered fixed profit staking?

Usually performs better in most systems.
Report Glasgow Brian November 22, 2009 4:04 PM GMT
whats that bung it ??
Report Glasgow Brian November 22, 2009 4:05 PM GMT
doyler
i prefer fixed liability ---protect your bank better
Report Gallivanter November 22, 2009 4:23 PM GMT
Laying to fixed stakes or fixed liability works out the same in the end as far as profit on investment is concerned. You win or lose the same proportion of the amount risked depending on your edge.

The best way to maximise your profit is to use Kelly but to do this you have to know your edge. If you don't know it exactly, always underestimate it. The only way to lose using the Kelly Criterion is if you have no edge or if you overestimate your edge. That's why the 'half-Kelly' bet is very popular.
Report ZEALOT November 22, 2009 11:39 PM GMT
no it does not work out the same
Report Doyler1987 November 23, 2009 10:26 AM GMT
Cheers lads.

If I'm doing fixed liability, basically what just has to happen is for him to tip more losers than winners..? And a 12/1 winner wont dent me at all.

I'm keeping the points system until into the new year anyway, paper trading I'd have made a loss yesterday but sure it was only the first day.
Report nomark November 23, 2009 11:08 AM GMT
forgive my ignorance, could someone please explain the kelly system to me or let me know where i can research it. Cheers.
Report SHAPESHIFTER November 23, 2009 5:40 PM GMT
General points on this;

Laying is BACKING THE FIELD

Example:

a five horse race.

If you were to back a horse, you would bet a percentage of a bank.

If you were to dutch two of the horses, you would divide that SAME percentage over the two horses balancing out to win or perhaps leaning one way with the other a "saver".

So, logically if you are managing your risk, if you were to bet on four of the five horses to win, you would dutch/spread that SAME percentage over the four horses leaving one being equivalent to that figure.

Sense? No?
Report Hayden November 23, 2009 6:02 PM GMT
whichever you choose you need to record your % profit against liability , that way you'll remain in the real world and the % will reflect the benefit of laying a 3.0 over a 10.0 as an example.
Report aye robot November 23, 2009 9:09 PM GMT
nomark;

The Kelly criterion is not a "system"- it's an equation that calculates what proportion of your bank you should risk on a given bet in order to achieve the optimal balance between protecting your money and increasing it at the fastest possible rate. It is much banded about but little understood (even by many of it's champions).

As has been stated above you need to be able to make acurate assements of your edge on a bet in order for it to be any use- otherwise it's what computer nerds used to call "gigo" (garbage in - garbage out). If you are able to accurately assess your edge then it does offer a sound basis for setting your stakes backed by a very intersting mathematical proof, however it's practical appliction is problematic as asessing your edge is difficult if not impossible.
Report Doyler1987 November 23, 2009 9:14 PM GMT
I'm struggling a fair bit with it, say I lay for a level liability, I'm laying a 2/5 shot for the same loss as a 20/1, that doesnt really make sense to me as the 2/5 has more chance of winning obviously. But then I also dont want big liabilities laying level stake.

Never done this before with this thinking, its hard enough :|
Report Glasgow Brian November 23, 2009 9:23 PM GMT
doyler --you lay these prices to a fixed stake
2/1- 2/1 -4/7 - 4/9 -5/1 -7/1


the first 5 lose ---your up 5pts - comm
then your last one wins so your down 2pts ---tw@t
LAY TO LIABILITY MATE -------if your selections are good , lay to lose 5% of bank on each horse .
Report aye robot November 23, 2009 9:26 PM GMT
Doyler- the thing to remember is that laying is the same as backing (don't let anyone tell you different). Laying a long shot is like bakcing at very short odds- you're likely to win, but you don't get much compared to your liability. On the other hand laying at short odds is like backing at middle or long odds- a much better return but it's less likely.

Think of it like that and it's easier to get your head round.

If you want to know what the equivalence is, you worrk it out like this (using decimal odds)

equivalent back odds = (1/(lay odds -1)) + 1

So for example laying at 3 is the same as backing at 1.5:

equivalent back odds = (1/(3-1)) + 1 = 1.5

And when you think about it you can see that that's right because in both cases you'd have to risk £10 to win £5.

Laying with a fixed liability is the same as backing with a fixed stake.
Report Glasgow Brian November 23, 2009 9:28 PM GMT
yes --but your less likely to start chasing --it just protects your emotions a bit better imo
Report Doyler1987 November 23, 2009 9:32 PM GMT
Cheers for that aye robot, makes sense to me.

I'm not a chaser Brian, have set staking plans but never been a chaser really, start every day with €400 in the account regardless of whats happened the day before.

Emotions wouldnt come into it though because its someone else sections so I wouldnt have to think. It'll be a good while before any money is put down on it you know.
Report big aitch November 23, 2009 9:35 PM GMT
Shapeshifter, when you say laying is backing the field you are not strictly correct.

In your example of a 5 horse race, if all 5 were to fall or unseat the rider, they would not be able to be remounted under the new regulations, therefor there would be no winner of the race.
Report Glasgow Brian November 23, 2009 9:35 PM GMT
but for me ----if i get 15 consecutive losers then lose the profit to two 7/1 winners --its bad on my mind --thats why i prefer liability --its just my pref
Report Doyler1987 November 23, 2009 9:37 PM GMT
Dont think that would happen too often big aitch!

I agree Brian, just trying to find a balance, maybe if I go with a 3 point plan of confidence.. say 100,200,300.. probably the best option.
Report Bet of the Decade November 23, 2009 9:46 PM GMT
some good insights on this thread.... could I ask what sort of percentage profit from liability people tend to get or aim for?

cheers
Report Glasgow Brian November 23, 2009 9:48 PM GMT
lay to a fixed liability for a set of 6
if showing a loss increase liability *2 for the next set of 6 ----if showing a profit return to original liability ,
if not increase * 3 original liability until bank shows a profit on initial bank ,
then return to the start ---if your strategy is a sound one this is a good staking plan imo
Report aye robot November 23, 2009 9:48 PM GMT
I expect decent strategies to return 5-7% on the liability of each bet (averaging out over time obviously). My very best get 8-9%.
Report Bet of the Decade November 23, 2009 9:55 PM GMT
thanks aye robot..just so I know i'm working it out right.....is the calc to work out % profit from liability:

clear profit ( after comm) / liability x 100? sorry if i sound thick!! just want to know if im going wrong!

cheers.
Report Doyler1987 November 23, 2009 9:59 PM GMT
Wanna get yourself a calculator watch Bet of the Decade ;)

I'm getting one in the morning..! :D
Report aye robot November 23, 2009 10:00 PM GMT
To be clear- I'm talking about after a large number of bets: IE if I've placed 100 bets each with a liability of £100 (backing or laying) and I've made £500 profit then my margin is 5%- (total profit/total liability)* 100.

Actually I never use perectages for my own use - I would just say my margin was 0.01, but I know many people prefer things expressed this way.
Report Doyler1987 November 23, 2009 10:02 PM GMT
aye robot, if I'm testing this am I better off keeping records in actual money, points terms, or % losers/winners..

Actually think I might go with all three.

Hell of a lot easier to think about backing rather than laying!
Report Bet of the Decade November 23, 2009 10:05 PM GMT
cheers for info...interesting that 5-8 percent is a figure which traders would be happy with...either people have big banks or are very patient???
Report Doyler1987 November 23, 2009 10:07 PM GMT
You dont have to win thousands every day to be successful. Slowly does it..
Report Bet of the Decade November 23, 2009 10:09 PM GMT
absolutely doyler...sometimes I go for glory and take big hits to my pot. u making steady profits with patience then?
Report Doyler1987 November 23, 2009 10:12 PM GMT
I'm alright. Ups and downs like the rest of us really. Have staking plans for each sport, and what sports to avoid completely. Been struggling with pre-off lately so cut stakes down for that and left in running stakes the same. Will play in running for the next few weeks and see, get confidence back more than anything. Took a €450 hit on Saturday :(
Report aye robot November 23, 2009 10:12 PM GMT
If you're betting pre-off then paper trading is fine, the important thing to remember when you're betting with real money is that you need to asess all your strategies on the basis of level stakes even if you're increasing your actual stakes- otherwise you can get lucky or unlucky on bigger bets and that can make your betting look better or worse than it really is.

When it comes to betting with real money it's crucial that you start small (I mean £2) and only increase very slowly- and then only if you're consistently winning, otherwise you're just throwing away money.

I'm fortunate enough to have a decent bank but I still always start new strategies on £2 a throw. There's no shame in being sensible, this isn't about bravado, it's about profit. The truth is that with the best will in the world most of my strategies fail, since I know I'm likely to lose I prefer to lose small.
Report aye robot November 23, 2009 10:14 PM GMT
5-8 percent is a figure which traders would be happy with

Decent position players take trader's pants down and spank their office chair imprinted @rses.
Report Bet of the Decade November 23, 2009 10:18 PM GMT
i have a few hundred in my pot left now and just going to try and progress that as much as possible - slowly but surely (hopefully)...laying outcomes where im not putting too much liability on the line...that's something i need to learn!!
cheers for insights chaps....appreciated.
Report Doyler1987 November 23, 2009 10:20 PM GMT
You should try start each day with a limited sum of money in the account. If youve a losing day dont deposit until the next morning and if youve a winning day withdraw it.. thats what I do anyway. At least if I've a bad day, it wont kill me anyway.
Report 2skidbums November 23, 2009 10:25 PM GMT
what way does de kelly system work
Report aye robot November 23, 2009 10:26 PM GMT
I do something similar- I keep a fixed ammount in, withdraw profits at the end of the day and if I'm down I don't withdraw untill I'm back over the threshold. On Sundays I work out my PC position and leave enough in to cover the payout on wednesday.
I hate being below the threshold so it keeps me sensible.
Report Gallivanter November 24, 2009 12:16 AM GMT
2skidbums 23 Nov 23:25
what way does de kelly system work


You have to know three things: the percentage chance of your selection winning, the odds available and your betting bank. From this, the Kelly Criterion will calculate the optimum amount you should bet (in effect, the maximum percentage of your bank that you should risk).

Knowing the odds available and the size of your betting bank is easy but knowing your percentage chance of winning is more problematical. For that reason, many punters bet using a 'Half Kelly' stake. That is to say, they only risk half the amount advised by Kelly in case they have been too optimistic with their chance of winning.

That's fine, Kelly is very forgiving -- unless you bet more than the recommended stakes or bet when your chance of winning is too low at the available odds.

You can use a free Kelly Criterion calculator here: http://methodbetting.com/kelly-criterion-bookmakers

There is more information about the Kelly Criterion on the site.

Disclaimer: the link is to my site but there is no need to register, no charge and no adverts.
Report Bet of the Decade November 24, 2009 8:02 AM GMT
thanks-

just regarding the PC, I take it that is the 'Premium Charge' which is much discussed onthis forum.

At what point will someone have to pay the PC? As far as I'm aware I have never paid this, I'm only paying the 5% comm on each win I make.

Obviously means I'm very small fry compared to many on here but just interested to see when this PC would kick in and how much they sting you for?
ta.
Report scots64 November 24, 2009 8:05 AM GMT
Bet of the decade , believe me you are not small fry on here. 95% of the clowns on the forums write BOOOM if they win £2
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