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Ernie__Bert
22 Nov 09 20:21
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Date Joined: 08 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 1,750 | Blogger: Ernie__Bert's blog
Would anyone agree that most punters on this site spend their money chasing losses from previous bets? and that there isnt anyone actually making a continuos profit. Be it from backing , trading or just laying.
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Report Shabba.... November 22, 2009 8:26 PM GMT
I very rarely us betfair I go to the bookies I dont see much difference in odds when you take comm. into account I find it keeps me in check you wld not go into a bookie and hand them a couple of hundred quid or anything like that plus when you win you go and collect and you have the cash in your hand and I find its a huge difference and you do less chasing
Report Ernie__Bert November 22, 2009 8:31 PM GMT
Yeah i know what you mean. You really need to be a good matematician and have excessive discipline to make a continuos profit here.
Report Richard LL November 22, 2009 8:37 PM GMT
there are certainly some folk doing rather well, though obviously they are a minority, a lot of people seem to hide behind this discipline malarky, yeah it's fairly important, but they tend only to acknowledge lack of discipline and see it as a major factor iin their losing bets, when in all probabiliy it punctuates all their betting, it certainly does so mine :(
Report Shabba.... November 22, 2009 8:40 PM GMT
I have good discipline now doing things this way and Im making more now than what I was when I was backing and laying here its very easy to back and lay in every horse race but now I just pick my picks go over do my bets if I win I collect the following day if I lose I dont run over to try and double up to get my cash back Im from dublin and the bookies are not like the one's in england were they restrict your bets I can get as much as I need on im not a big gambler but I earn a nice couple of quid without been sussed out by the bookie
Report Ernie__Bert November 22, 2009 8:42 PM GMT
I havent had any bets on betfair since September. I launched attacks and then gave up and then launched more attacks with certain rules and then gave up! I cant identify certain roots to profit. They dont exist without percentages and statistics coming back to hit you at some stage. Even the giants take a killing especially this year.
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY November 22, 2009 8:44 PM GMT
I agree that most punters lose and chase, though many deceive themselves that they're not doing that.
They come up with all sorts of " progressive " staking plans and money mgt. strategems, that they then kid themselves means they are making intelligent bets, based on the mathematical concept of value. In fact they're doing nothing of the sort.
But there are some on here and elsewhere who do find value ( somehow though I do not know how personally ) and do win substantial amounts on a long term basis.
They are understandably a rare breed, which is the same as in any other area of making a crust.
Good luck to them for being so clever and for being rewarded for being so. Betfair has been a godsend to these exceptionally gifted gamblers or computer programmers in some instances.
Report Shabba.... November 22, 2009 8:44 PM GMT
Do you back or lay ernie personally im a backer and I dont see much difference with odds here and the bookie thats why I changed the way of doing things
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY November 22, 2009 8:48 PM GMT
Shabba
Laying is a form of backing.
You're just backing a number of horses or outcomes on a "dutching " basis.
BF just made the process easier and quicker.
Report Shabba.... November 22, 2009 8:50 PM GMT
I agree value can be had and I still use betfair on certain things for example I am at this moment getting as much of the 2.6ish for joe to win xfactor cause theres no doubt in my mind he will go alot lower in the next few weeks he will defo be in the final the judges love him the fans love him and when he does go lower I will trade out and hopefully make a nice sum so there is opportunitys just need to be patient and dont just bet for the sake of it
Report flatliner November 22, 2009 8:53 PM GMT
CHASING

No.
Report Ernie__Bert November 22, 2009 8:58 PM GMT
Shabaa I am on Betfair since 2002 and I used to just use it for backing. I used to just back horses at fancy prices some of them very memorable 210/1 on bumper winner on Aintree GN day being the highlight. I also used to back players to score anytime, the odds here are far better in most cases than the scrooges on the highstreets.

But in last year the laying side appealed to me and I gave a couple of markets a go. I used to lay draw in one sided games and when goal went in I backed the draw. Then this got boring and any small profits were being lost on silly various bets. I then started to lay half time 0 0s which initially was very profitable but due to greed and lack of discipline it became a big loss maker.
Report Shabba.... November 22, 2009 9:04 PM GMT
I agree with the big odds for the horses and if I ever got a tip for a big outsider I wld back on here without doubt I know a few people make good profits on here and they are making there money doing the most boring stuff its not my cup of tea but at the end of the day there making money and that's wat its all about at the end of the day it wld not be surprised if the big rollers are making money the boring way maybe its the way to go man
Report Ernie__Bert November 22, 2009 9:13 PM GMT
Yeah , i have to wait a while and study various markets before i go but im afraid of my frailties and might wander!
Report Shabba.... November 22, 2009 9:18 PM GMT
Gl man just keep on banking your winning bets if you dont its just a number in the corner of your screen
Report shaungoater November 22, 2009 10:23 PM GMT
Skill is far more important than discipline

So comforting when you've done your brains to know you have the skill to get it back
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