FOOTBALL AND USING KELLY CALC and IR BETS STEP3

GAME 5 POLAND v CANADA

Was a loss ........Dabbling after HT result cost me the money .....of course hada goal been scored by either side then would be in profit.....so a chance I took and never paid off.



Football: -£24.91 LOSS GAME 5


Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Poland v Canada : Correct Score 18-Nov-09 16:00 18-Nov-09 17:57 -23.90
Football / Poland v Canada : Half Time/Full Time 18-Nov-09 16:00 18-Nov-09 17:56 -2.54
Football / Poland v Canada : Match Odds 18-Nov-09 16:00 18-Nov-09 17:54 -6.91
Football / Poland v Canada : Half Time 18-Nov-09 16:00 18-Nov-09 16:49 8.44

GAME 6


0-1 GREECE


SO HT DRAW lay paid off + GREECE/GREECE bet


So now laying GREECE in match market and putting on DRAW at HT to nullify loss on ht DRAW.

Hoping for equaliser before HT

Stuck £2 on 1-2 GREECE ....might come into play ....so sitting with loss on 0-1.....but have 1-1 /2-1/1-2 covered ......fair chance another goal

So profit on HT due to lay on DRAW ...roughly £10.

Not sure how this game will pan out.........UK have missed a couple chances ...and GREECE are a strong defensive team ...the game now suits them. They might even score again to make it 0-2 ...so covered that too.

Need a goal from 1 or em.....preferably to go to 1-1 for a while then another profit can be made.

could finish 1-1 or 2-1 or 1-2 now ....my guess at this stage is 1-1

Taking another chance of goal being scored ...by setting a lay on CS 0-1 to gain £6 at 2s....if goal scored !

Will make overall loss of £8 if stays 0-1............

GAME 7 - FRANCE V ROI

FRANCE won 1st leg 0-1 in ROI...................so ROI MUST score a goal.....

ROI likely to have a go early to try to score.................but will French let them?

Will take a chance on ROI taking lead 1st half....so main bet is ROI/ROI.



CURRENT BANK : £ 408.10 with GAME 6 still to finish

AVAILABLE ODDS ON MAIN BET : 19 ( BF)
PROBABILITY : 91 ( 10% )
STAKE INDICATED : 19.14


So MAIN bet ROI/ROI £6

Cover bets
DRAW/ROI £2
DRAW/DRAW £2
DRAW/FRANCE £2

CS BACKS all £2 on 2-0/0-0// 2-1

GL with bets

Also laying DRAW at Ht to gain £12 in GAME 7 FRANCE v ROI..............as feel a goal will be scored ...and it could be by FRENCH .....hopefully it is the Irish though :D

GAME 6 ....moved up the lay on 0-1 to 3s to gain £6 if goal scored .....may happen

GAME 6 laying UNDER 2.5 goals ...to cover £6 loss on CSs not covered that have liability...game could well come to life ...if a goal scored then a profit should be made.

layed UNDER 2.5 goals again for another £8 ....need 1 goal

Goals not coming in two games...UKRAINE were very very poor in that match...and GREECE were their usual boring defensive selves.

Another loss on GAME 6

GAME 6 LOSS on UKRAINE v GREECE

Soccer: -£19.57

Soccer Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Ukraine v Greece : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Nov-09 18:00 18-Nov-09 20:02 -3.78
Soccer / Ukraine v Greece : Half Time/Full Time 18-Nov-09 18:00 18-Nov-09 20:01 10.46
Soccer / Ukraine v Greece : Correct Score 18-Nov-09 18:00 18-Nov-09 20:00 -24.00
Soccer / Ukraine v Greece : Match Odds 18-Nov-09 18:00 18-Nov-09 19:54 -11.76
Soccer / Ukraine v Greece : Half Time 18-Nov-09 18:00 18-Nov-09 18:51 9.51

GAME 7 using the HT/FT potential profit on ROI/ROI to lay ROI in Match market for £10....

ROI odds are drifting IN........normally drift out....shows how well ROI playing.....come on ROI

Pity I layed ROI before they scored ......DRATTTTTTTTTTT .....

Have layed ROI in Ht market to gain £14 profit on HT DRAW ....also layed ROI again im match market ...leaving some profit on ROI/ROI left

Layed all the profit off on ROI at Ht and sitting with potential £40 profit if level HT.

Initial main bet was "right" at the odds .....ROI/ROI ......but i chickened out the bet IP by laying ROI at 7.8.....for £10.....DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT so near getting it "right".


Now have £40 profit if ROI win match .........but will they hang on??????

Will gamble on them doing so for 15 mins......then will lay some off to go all green.....

Kicking myself as there was £101 profit on ROI/ROI at start "!!!!!!!

Have set a lay on ROI to gain £16 at low odds in match market.......................tempted to fully lay ROI now............but they are a brave side who will fight and make it tough for FRENCH ..........hope ref is strong as they will dive IMO for penalty 2nd half...............

Would have been £50 profit on this match had I NOT layed the potential profit off on ROI/ROI......

Oh well a close one.......

Taking yet another chance that I am "right" on ROI being tired 2nd half...like the first leg match the FRENCH dominated 2nd half .....so laying all £40 profit off ROI ......to sit with £40 on DRAW or FRANCE.....Think that is "correct" move nowwwwwwwwwwwww

and laying 0-1 ......to gain £12 ......................a dodgy move ...but feel it is right move. NOW

Think my "tired" thing today has cost me a helafalot!!!!!!!

Was "right" on value of ROI/ROI......but made some wrong moves IP......now could end up with £45 loss on a match ...well over the stakes total indicated by KC ..............................:(

The 3rd game in a row where I am waiting for 1 goal to turn position in favour............need that wee bit LUCK now.

Forget the money ....COME ON ROIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII :D

0-2 will do...come on ROIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

Stuck £2 on 1-2

WD ROI ....poor play from me ....losing £50 approx on a game where my main bet at value was "right" .......... :(


Been a horrible day through bad decisions ......was £50 on horses til last 4 races and chucked that away today .......

3 times took a chance on a goal ...in 3 games ...and all 3 stayed just 1 goal in it!

Losing over all today £90 when could have been £140 up.........................bad decisions costing me dearly!!!!!

FRANCE still likely to qualify ...but don't like odds...so no bet

Oh to hell come on ROI ...layed FRANCE to gain £24

PENALTIES they have a good chance with ROI keeper .....best chance probably

Strong referee in this match ...making excellenet decisions ......wd

Not my or ROI's day .............HENRY a cheeeeeeeeeeeeettttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt

Fkg chancers ...HENRY dived earlier too ....so 2 booking and would be off..........unlucky ROI .....


Something has to be done to stop cheeeeeeettttttttttsssssssss....

Guillotined possibly ]:)

HENRY has been a very very poor player for a couple of years ...and tonight he showed how low he has fallen !!!!!!

GAME 7 LOSS on FRANCE v ROI

Football: -£73.06


Football Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / France v Rep of Ireland : To Qualify 18-Nov-09 20:00 18-Nov-09 22:35 -15.36
Football / France v Rep of Ireland : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Nov-09 20:00 18-Nov-09 21:57 -5.30
Football / France v Rep of Ireland : Half Time/Full Time 18-Nov-09 20:00 18-Nov-09 21:56 96.05
Football / France v Rep of Ireland : Correct Score 18-Nov-09 20:00 18-Nov-09 21:56 -47.18
Football / France v Rep of Ireland : Match Odds 18-Nov-09 20:00 18-Nov-09 21:54 -101.44
Football / France v Rep of Ireland : Half Time 18-Nov-09 20:00 18-Nov-09 20:49 0.17



The "daft" decision to lay the main bet potential profit of £101 on ROI /ROI ...BEFORE ROI scored....

I have been a bit "tired" most of day ....and my thinking has not been good when games IP..

Crazy to lose £73 when would have had a profit of at least £40 had I not layed ROI when I did.......


To compound the bad decision ....i also OVER STAKED ....so having KC to indicate STAKES did not stop me in this game OVER STAKING.

Oh well ...will have a crack at a SA game .

GAME 8 - Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno

Watched 1st leg last week and home team are 1 goal up from first leg.

They don't appear to be a team that would hold back and keep game tight 1st half......I think home team will go for kill early ....so Fluminense RJ / Fluminense RJ will be my main bet.

MAIN BET is Fluminense RJ /Fluminense RJ


PRESENT BANK : 347.44
BF odds 2.84
PROBABILITY 1-1 (50%)
STAKES INDICATED : 74.34

So bets are :

Fluminense RJ /Fluminense RJ £40 MAIN BET

Cover bets :
DRAW/Fluminense RJ /Fluminense RJ £16
Cerro Porteno/Fluminense RJ £2
Cerro Porteno/Cerro Porteno £6
0-0 £6
3-0 £2
3-1 £2

GAME 8 RESULT

Soccer: £36.09 Total P&L: £36.09

Soccer Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno : Half Time/Full Time 18-Nov-09 23:50 19-Nov-09 01:57 -6.00
Soccer / Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno : Correct Score 18-Nov-09 23:50 19-Nov-09 01:56 63.15
Soccer / Uruguay v Costa Rica : Correct Score 18-Nov-09 23:00 19-Nov-09 01:02 -21.06


Was very very lucky to get away with a profit.................................and my discipline went again.

Had had 3 other games where I layed a 1 goal lead go against me and decided that, as I never covered AWAY TEAM/DRAW ( Had AWAY/AWAY and AWAY/HOME covered only) that I was going to incur a £75 loss if it went and stayed at 1-1.....probably.

So I layed 0-1 once ......then when odds went down I layed it again....to reduce the loss if 1-1 by £50.........and if another goal would make a profit.........but my exposure on 0-1 was £!50..........BASICALLY LOST CONTROL AGAIN.........................

Football is always the hardest sport for me to control the urge to RISK TOO MUCH for TOO LITTLE....and perhaps I should stop this thread . However, I will persist and try to keep the chase demons away......................as I need to improve on football bets.

I will try to keep within KELLY STAKING .....perhaps go to 33% of FULL KELLY STAKES ...not sure ...will see how I feel today later on.

Will post cumulative position later today.

G M the nooooooooooooooo

Sorry as you will see I dabbled in URUGUAY game too ........and lost ....so shown net loss on 2 games above....

So far with football -

16.11.09 GAME 1 - Bray v Sporting Fingal ...............................................PROFIT £ 40.00
17.11.09 GAME 2 - Slovakia v Chile .........................................................PROFIT 13.37
17.11.09 GAME 3- Netherlands v Spain......................................................PROFIT 1.10
17.11.09 GAME 4- Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 .......................PROFIT 7.36
18.11.09 GAME 5 - Poland v Canada ..................................................LOSS ( 24.91 )
18.11.09 GAME 6- Ukraine v Greece ................................................LOSS ( 19.57)
18.11.09 GAME 7- France v ROI ....................................................LOSS ( 73.06 )
18.11.09 GAME 8- Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno ..................................PROFIT 57.15
18.11.09 GAME 9- Uruaguay v Costa Rica...........................................LOSS ( 21.06 )
------------
CUMULATIVE NET LOSS ON FOOTBALL ON THREAD .....................................£ ( 19.62 )


Had I not layed ROI before they score I would be well in profit.....so my initial bet was "right" ....just IP bets went haywire !!!!


CLOSING BANK TODAY AFTER HORSE RACES AND FOOTBALL £ 383.53

Have only lost £10 on football bets in last week ...so will continue this exercise til I get it "right"!


GAME 10 - Astra Ploiesti v Dinamo Bucharest

A Romanian cup tie.

Home team seem to score goal ....so as a cup tie they miht score at least 1 against DB.......

Fair chance it might be OVER 2.5 goals game so that will be main bet .

ODDS AVAILABLE BF : ..... 2.14
PROBABILITY : ..............1-1 ( 50%)
KELLY STAKES INDICATED : 17.28


So MAIN BET £17.28 on OVER 2.5 goals.

With cover bets on 1-1 and 0-2 with £2 on each.


GL with bets

Another hedge bet with £2 on 0-0 ...............as it is a cup tie and they can be tight affairs.....

Astra Ploiesti 0 v 1 Dinamo Bucharest already


So reduced liability on BACK on UNDER 2.5 goals a wee bit....as only needs 1 more goal to no worse than break-even.....

1-1 ..that was quick! A penalty for home side...

So reduced liabilty again to go all green no matter if stays 1-1

GAME 11 - [b]Wales U16 v N Ireland U16[/b]

A VICTORY SHIELD match......

Not sure whether 80 mins or 90....assuming 90.

WALES youngsters playing very well these days so likelt they will score at least 2.......


MAIN BET WALES/WALES

AVAILABLE ODDS BF : 3.55
PROBABILITY : 2-1 ( 33.33 %)
KELLY STAKES INDICATED : 30.13


So main bet WALES/WALES £18
cover bet DRAW/WALES £3
NI/NI £2
0-0 £2

As extra hedge laying WALES to gain £24 in match market ..........if 0-0 Ht will back them back...if NI take lead will lay some of profit back I think ....seems a reasonable thing to do.

link game 10

http://www.sport.ro/live/ibu3.html

GAME 10 ....now 1-2 so a small profit achieved :D

GAME 11 - 1-0 WALES

So laying a chunk of profit off and hoping they get to HT then wil be in good position if NI equalise which in the conditions can happen ....

Now that it is HT ....have backed WALES back with all profit on DRAW and NI ......then backed DRAW for £6 and NI for £4........as WALES with wind behind them 2nd half are likely to score again and win.


Will only make £8/£9 profit is WALES win ...but that is ok.

It is an 80 min game ....game 11

Changed mind already :D ........As I believe WALES will win have just left it as a LOSS on DRAW of £31......................and covered NI winning to win overall £10......

If early WALES goal will cover DRAW ......loss etc

GAME 12 - LDU v River Plate (Uru)

RP won 1st leg 2-1 at home.

So RP in a precarious position if home team takes lead....as 1-0 does them to go through.

RP are a strange team though ...their league performances are very ordinary.....they seem to be just going for this CUP SUDAMERICANA................................

If they sit back they might be asking for trouble.......so they are better to go out and be positive from start to get another goal ....then they can defend lead. This is what I think they might do.

The home team may let RP run about a lot 1st half.....as they know that 2nd half they will feel effects of playing at altitude..............

So DRAW /LDU is main bet



AVAILABLE BANK just now : 464
AVAILABLE BF ODDS : 4.9
PROBABILITY : 3-1 ( 25%)
KELLY STAKES INDICATED : 22.07

So bets are :

DRAW/LDU £12 MAIN BET
Cover bets
RP/RP £2
RP/DRAW £2
RP/LDU £2
0-0 £2

HT LAYING 0-0 TO A COST OF £15 to gain £4 ( the 0-0 bet above helps with this position)
HT 2-0 LDU £2
HT AUQ £2
=====================================

1-0 HT will be a loss position ...but will take a chance as made about £13 profit today on footy....and hopefully I have the tactics right for both teams..................RP SCORING in first half would be perfect start.


GL with bets

GAME 11 PROFIT

Football: £4.93

Football Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Wales U16 v N Ireland U16 : Half Time/Full Time 19-Nov-09 19:40 19-Nov-09 21:19 34.39
Football / Wales U16 v N Ireland U16 : Correct Score 19-Nov-09 19:40 19-Nov-09 21:19 -2.00
Football / Wales U16 v N Ireland U16 : Match Odds 19-Nov-09 19:40 19-Nov-09 21:18 -27.46


I really have to go more on my opinion on matches .....as chickened out again likel the ROI game :(.......so only tiny profit on game 11.

2-0 LDU before HT so far ....so might at least just lose a wee bit ....might make a profit yet???

Covered 2-1 HT to reduce loss if that ....I make a profit if another LDU goal before HT

Taking a chance and risking some of 2-0 profit to get profit for either team to score befoer HT

Lost £1 in HT/Ft market ....and tried to recoup the £2 lost so far in CS market by laying AUQ .......mistake as a 3rd goal gone in BEFORE HT :(


So will have another loss of £14 if AUQ happens.......eeeeeeeeejjjjiiiittttttttttttttt


Might get out of loss yet .....BUT UNLIKELY!

If it goes 25 mins into 2nd half then I might reduce loss ...but I have to risk more to do so.....by laying again AUQ :D

Decided to take a loss of annother £6/£7..............and leave it at that.

4-0 good timing :D

GAME 11 RESULT

Football: £- 8.16

Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / LDU v River Plate (Uru) : Half Time/Full Time 19-Nov-09 22:15 20-Nov-09 00:06 -18.00
Football / LDU v River Plate (Uru) : Correct Score 19-Nov-09 22:15 19-Nov-09 23:32 -7.28
Football / LDU v River Plate (Uru) : Half Time Score 19-Nov-09 22:15 19-Nov-09 23:02 17.12

So far with football -

16.11.09 GAME 1 - Bray v Sporting Fingal ...............................................PROFIT £ 40.00
17.11.09 GAME 2 - Slovakia v Chile .........................................................PROFIT 13.37
17.11.09 GAME 3- Netherlands v Spain......................................................PROFIT 1.10
17.11.09 GAME 4- Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 .......................PROFIT 7.36
18.11.09 GAME 5 - Poland v Canada ..................................................LOSS ( 24.91 )
18.11.09 GAME 6- Ukraine v Greece ................................................LOSS ( 19.57)
18.11.09 GAME 7- France v ROI ....................................................LOSS ( 73.06 )
18.11.09 GAME 8- Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno ..................................PROFIT 57.15
18.11.09 GAME 9- Uruaguay v Costa Rica...........................................LOSS ( 21.06 )
19.11.09 GAME 10-Astra Ploiesti v Dinamo Bucharest .........................PROFIT 8.11
19.11.09 GAME 11-Wales U16 v N Ireland U16 ..................................PROFIT 4.93
19.11.09 GAME 12- LDU v River Plate (Uru)........................................LOSS ( 8.16 )
------------....................................................................................................
CUMULATIVE NET LOSS ON FOOTBALL ON THREAD .....................................£ ( 14.74)

My guess on first two games yesterday were good guesses....but I chickened out like ROI game again and never reaped rewards for good selected bets.

Really have to let bets stand without hedging bets.....otherwise will not make decent profit at this.

G M the noooooooooo

DFC , you have said a few times that your main problem is staking , but surely a bigger problem is your inability to be selective , as you seem to be attracted by a bet in almost every race/match that comes along ?

Not meaning to be unfairly critical btw , as i think you do pick out some very good bets, particulary at the higher odds , and often with good reasoning posted. I just doubt that there will be a clear value bet in 90 odd % of markets and if so your good winners are always likely to be swamped by losses in races/matches you should have left alone .

tobermory 20 Nov 01:48
DFC , you have said a few times that your main problem is staking , but surely a bigger problem is your inability to be selective , as you seem to be attracted by a bet in almost every race/match that comes along ?

Not meaning to be unfairly critical btw , as i think you do pick out some very good bets, particulary at the higher odds , and often with good reasoning posted. I just doubt that there will be a clear value bet in 90 odd % of markets and if so your good winners are always likely to be swamped by losses in races/matches you should have left alone .
=======================================================

Morning tobermory. Thanks for your constructive post.

I'm not so sure there is not "value" bets in almost every race , as that is where my "edge" lies. If you check the KELLY CALC HORSE RACING thread where I have been using money, I have been ignoring races which I can't get a selection by just glancing at race card.

The races I have been selecting on that thread ( as ATTEMPT 1 was "every race" just to get me back up to speed on how races were being run currently.....as been not watching races much from about August 2008 til recently.....ATTEMPT 2 was more selective but still tackling many races but getting good odds winners eg 50-1 SP at odds 90 on here etc and many other winners in range 8-1 upwards.......) are IMO up to a high standard re how well generally selections have fared and number of winners at good odds.

I have left out many races on the current KELLY HORSES thread that I know I could find a value bet in, but, as I know it would take me say 10 to 15 minutes to decide which one should be selected, I just leave out as there are plenty races that can be glanced at and suitable selection found at value odds IMO etc.

There are some race that I know should be left alone , for numerous reasons, and that is what I have been doing on current HORSES thread.

As for FOOTBALL matches, I know my "edge" is non-existent for specific teams/players , but I feel I am "good" on understanding the psychology in certain types of matches , and of how players/teams are likely to play based on the stats . Also I believe I am "good" on recogising odds that are too high or too low..............no matter what game it is.

I am "footering aboot" on this thread re FOOTBALL matches, and have only singled out games that I believe there is "value" in a bet...............I know many say don't bet on friendlies /under 16 matches etc etc but I think occasionally there are such games like last night where some "value" was found ( in out of 3 my guess on what might happen happened......but I fiddled about and ended up with a very small return considering was "right" on 2 out of 3.)

The reason for tacking so many matches on this thread was to get used to using the KELLY STAKING CALCULATOR and to test myself on the guess on probability of outcomes. I agree I could have cut down on number of games on this thread.......but feel I have gained a "feel" for using the calculator on DIFFICULT GAMES . I'm a great believer that in DIFFICULT GAMES the "best" value lies...............

What I am discovering more and more about MYSELF on THIS THREAD with football is that I should just select the bet and let it stand without "footering aboot" ! I think some bets IP are warranted though but they should only be to protect the main bet. I admit i am still torn between letting a main bet stand and taking action to go all green etc.............

I've only selected 12 games on this thread and the ROI game alone would have given an over all large profit HAD I BET FULL KELLY STAKES ON! I know that was an exceptional game for odds.....as layers were just well wrong on their weighing up of ROI chances etc.

On both the ROI game and WALES game, last night, I did STUPID lays against the main bet in 1st half...........I probably should go to pub and leave bets to stand til their is value in taking action to go all green when the bet position arises in game.

I agree that I am dabbling in TOO MANY MARKETS in ONE GAME.............hedging too much .....I should let bet stand until it arises THEN TAKE ACTION .......or until odds have dropped down to value level for laying off some profit etc.

So I know you are "right" on football bets and from now on I will be :-

1. Having a MAIN bet and letting it stand .
2. Only doing 1/2 bets to hedge main bet or to exploit value odds that might happen IMO etc.
3. NOT GOING AGAINST MAIN BET .

Was thinking about what i should do on THIS THREAD so I will be more selective with bets on this thread.......................hopefully I can control the urges to "dabble" IP etc...............

Away for breakfast ..................................Thanks again for pointing me in "right" direction....much appreciated.

GL with bets .

Just after checking HORSE thread tobermory and there have been 15 winning bets out of 30 main selections.........These were odds of "winning" selections at SP -

WON 11-2 SP
WON 9-2 SP
WON 7-2 FAV
WON 2-1 FAV
WON 16-1 SP
WON 4-1 SP
WON 3-1 FAV
WON 6-1 SP
WON 8-1 SP
WON 13-2 SP
PLACED 25-1 SP 22SPL
WON 14-1 SP AND SFC with cover
WON 15-8 JF
WON 8-1 SP
WON 8-1 SP

There was 1 lay selected and it WON unfortunately at short odds :(


I'm sure you will note the odds attained were "reasonable" odds winners......at SP.....and as there has only been 4 days racing on thread, then 50 races is "reasonably selective" for me ]:) :D

Don't really think I could cut down much on such bets .....though they were "at a glance " bets with little time spent on each race etc ...........................they kinda stuck out a bit ( the edge/s etc )

Trust you appreciate that with horse racing being where my edge lies that it is hard for me to miss out too many races ........you can see from above just what I am capable of when I get up to date on current racing etc

FOOTBALL though I will obey oh wise one :D

GL again with bets.

Sorry tobermory that should read -

15 winning bets out of 50 main selections.......

GAME 13 ( hope not unlucky!)Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn

Home team at bottom of league but they will be desperate to win a match.

Away team score goals but don't win many ...drawing a few times.


Home team may have a real go and score first in 1st half ....so will try the MAIN BET as
Rot-Weiss Ahlen /Rot-Weiss Ahlen

BANK : 341.20
AVAILABLE ODDS : 6.6 BF
PROBABILITY : 4-1 ( 20% )
KELLY STAKES INDICATED : 18.46

So MAIN BET : Rot-Weiss Ahlen /Rot-Weiss Ahlen £18.46Cover bet BACK OVER 2.5 goals £18.46 at 2s
and 1-1 £3 cover on that at 7.6
0-0 £2 on as well.

also 2-2 £2 on as might come in useful


GL with bets

My guess on how it finishes is 2-1 or 2-2

1 game 5 bets already.

on teams you know absolutely nothing about.

this is dart throwing!

There are stats available......

repeat

you know absolutely nothing about these teams ar this match

you are throwing a dart

lee h2 - what is your betting expertise? You never put forward ANY opinion on any sport ....you just guess that I guess!!!!!

Considering this thread is under 8 days old ....on FOOTBALL ...and overall before this match am only a few squid down ....you are just blethering as usual.....

Football: -£9.56 | Horse Racing: £203.57 Total P&L: £194.01

Last 8 days( really only 8 days )

Stuck £8 on home team in GAME 13 in match market as they have the slope ( appears to be one) ...and might improve their efforts 2nd half.

Also layed UNDER 2.5 goals for further £12 at low cost

more darts

Layed 0-0 profit now to leave £!5 loss if no goals in that market ...but I believe a goal will be scored ,,,probably 2

LOSS on that match .....0-0 final score......

GAME 14 - Marseille v Paris St-G

Will the FRANCE game and also younger players International games take its toll on both teams tonight?

M have a game on 25th against MILAN in CL.......in MILAN......they won't want too hard a game tonight after international matches players been involved in.

PSG seem to draw 1-1 in a few matches and seem to struggle to score more than 1 goal.


Going to take a chance that PSG will try to win this match to move level with M in league......

Likely to be tight match first half ...then PSG may try to win....so MAIN BET DRAW/PSG

BANK : £ 236.24
AVAILABLE ODDS BF : 14.5
PROBABILITY : 7-1 ( 12.50%)
KELLY STAKES INDICATED : 13.40


So bets are
MAIN BET DRAW/ PSG £10
Cover bets PSG/PSG £ 3.40
2-1 M £2
0-0 £2

Also Laying DRAW at HT to gain £15 as a hedge bet......

GL with bets

for last night's matches were BAD........I grossly over staked 2 matches and got clobbered both times.......................

GAMES 13 , 14 AND 15

Soccer: -£173.78

GAME 14 LOSS £72.32
Soccer Showing 1 - 14 of 14 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Marseille v Paris St-G : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Nov-09 20:00 20-Nov-09 21:53 -20.35
Soccer / Marseille v Paris St-G : Match Odds 20-Nov-09 20:00 20-Nov-09 21:53 -3.12
Soccer / Marseille v Paris St-G : Half Time/Full Time 20-Nov-09 20:00 20-Nov-09 21:53 -22.40
Soccer / Marseille v Paris St-G : Correct Score 20-Nov-09 20:00 20-Nov-09 21:52 -37.48
Soccer / Marseille v Paris St-G : Half Time 20-Nov-09 20:00 20-Nov-09 20:48 11.03


GAME 15 PROFIT £ 3.50
Soccer / Legia Warsaw v Polonia Warsaw : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Nov-09 19:00 20-Nov-09 21:00 0.34
Soccer / Legia Warsaw v Polonia Warsaw : Correct Score 20-Nov-09 19:00 20-Nov-09 21:00 5.93
Soccer / Legia Warsaw v Polonia Warsaw : Match Odds 20-Nov-09 19:00 20-Nov-09 20:59 -0.52
Soccer / Legia Warsaw v Polonia Warsaw : Half Time 20-Nov-09 19:00 20-Nov-09 19:53 -2.25


GAME 13 LOSS £ 104.96
Soccer / Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Nov-09 17:00 20-Nov-09 18:52 -21.10
Soccer / Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn : Half Time/Full Time 20-Nov-09 17:00 20-Nov-09 18:51 -24.46
Soccer / Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn : Correct Score 20-Nov-09 17:00 20-Nov-09 18:50 -47.40
Soccer / Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn : Match Odds 20-Nov-09 17:00 20-Nov-09 18:50 -12.00
========================================================


As was only about £ 6 down before yesterday's matches ........YESTERDAY I lost "control of staking" and in 2 of 3 games that was enough to ruin figures.


At the odds I am going for ( generally high odds) I will have LOSSES ....but they should be no where close to such poor control figures.

As for the games chosen......I am "happy" with the MAIN BETS selected.......one of them almost came off , the Rot-Weiss Ahlen game where the home team hardly touched ball whole of 1st half ( they dominated most of play 2nd half but could not score) but they still had 3 chances to take lead 1st half.......so it was a close one IMO on the MAIN BET almost coming off AT HIGH ODDS ). I suspect lee h2's post niggled me a bit, on that match and possibly in next 2 games too.......and this contributed to the LARGE LOSS.
===================================================

lee h2- You say that I am just "guessing" on football matches......and this is basically true........... However, we are talking about FOOTBALL MATCHES which most of the time most people ...INCLUDING YOU ( IF YOU EVER BET ON ANYTHING)......GUESS ON.

Horse racing involves far more skill and knowledge IMO....and I know I have edge/s there........but even with edges you still have a "guess" element to any bet chosen with that sport to.

As I said above , I was "happy" with MAIN BETS selected that lost last night........as ,based on stats and the way matches can go at this point in season, the bets were worth a try at the HIGH ODDS. Of course HIGH ODDS bets generally mean I will lose more often than I will win....BUT I SHOULD NOT HAVE LOST SO MUCH ...THAT WAS DOWN TO BAD MONEY MANAGEMENT.

So i will continue this thread as I do believe i will "get it right" eventually...........the losses sustained on FOOTBALL have been subsidised by my HORSE RACING PROFITS over same period ( only started betting recently to get "up to date" on current racing with small stakes ...starting BANK was £150 .......so ,as it is still in profit over all by £16 approx, I am putting last night down to a LOSS OF CONTROL OVER MONEY MANAGEMENT ON FOOTBALL BETS......not the games chosen or main bets selected.

Horse Racing: £203.57 | Soccer: -£183.34 Total P&L: £20.23


The difference is down to TOTE bets.

So away to select a game for GAME 16.

GL with bets

GAME 16 - Liverpool v Man City

Thought I'd pick a straightforward match ]:)

As LIV are under huge pressure to win this match.........I think the game will suit MAN CITY.

the value is in MC/MC and DRAW/MC..............so main bet is MC/MC.

BANK : £167.42
ODDS AVAILABLE BF : 9.6
PROBABILITY : 4-1 ( 20%)
KELLY STAKES INDICATED : £17.09


So MAIN BET MAN CITY/MAN CITY £ 12
cover bet DRAW/MAN CITY £3.09
cover bet 2-1 LIV. £2
cover bet 0-0 £2


Gl with bets

I sometimes wonder if i am just fated to lose on this thread.......

Had a good position at 1-1 .....as DRAW/MC and 2-1 LIV.......

Started to watch a long race......with sound on race ...but not on football.....and 2 goals within 1 min and I LOSE on a match that a goal for either side and I was in profit......................:(

My own fault I know.....but annoying all the same..............

GAME 17 Aston Villa/Aston Villa


£8 on AV/AV



GAME 18 SPURS v WIGAN

£6 on WIGAN

GAME 18 - BIRM v FULHAM

£6 on FULHAM

Timing is everything :D 1-0 BIRM :(

GAME 19- Sunderland v Arsenal

£4 on SUNDERLAND

GAME 20 - Bologna v Inter

Bologna/Bologna £ 4 main bet at 12s
Draw/Bologna 14.5 £2.00 £27.00

Draw/Inter 4.9 £2.00 £7.80
0-0 £2

GAME 19- Sunderland v Arsenal

£4 on SUNDERLAND


Currently 11-0 so all green on that one...only game so far :(

GAME 21 Hull City VWest Ham United currently 3-3

LAY DRAW to gain £8

GAME 17 Aston Villa/Aston Villa


£8 on AV/AV


Now 1-1 so as I layed BURNLEY when 1-0 up ...now about break-even on this one...another goal by AV and into good profit

GAME 18 - BIRM v FULHAM

£6 on FULHAM


lost £12 on this match...

GAME 22- Man Utd v Everton

4.4 £2.00 £6.80
Bet matched:17:04 21-Nov-09

Draw/Everton 26 £2.00 £50.00
Bet matched:17:04 21-Nov-09

Everton/Everton 23 £3.00 £66.00 MAIN BET
Bet matched:17:04 21-Nov-09

Plus £2 on 0-0 in G22

Feeling really jinxed today with football bets!


Was trying to access the HT DRAW to lay it in ITER match.....and my computer froze.........just could not access anything.....had to switch off and restart etc ...by then INTER score a goal ....so I lose on that match.....................

TWICE today freak things have happened and cost me twice..........


Need EVERTON to get first goal ......might happen yet.

GAME 23 Fiorentina v Parma

FIORENTINA have a CL game on 24.11.09 and it will be a tough match.........a DRAW here might be OK for them.

PARMA might grab first goal so going for -

Draw/Fiorentina 5.1 £2.00 £8.20
Ref: 9496174961 Bet matched:18:01 21-Nov-09

Draw/Parma 13 £2.00 £24.00
Ref: 9496173020 Bet matched:18:01 21-Nov-09

Parma/Parma 10.5 £6.00 £57.00 MAIN BET

Also covering 0-0 £2

MU take lead ..............oh well that looks like another game lost................will put a back bet on 2-1 £2

RESULTS FOR TODAY

Football: -£18.07 | Horse Racing: £52.34 Total P&L: £34.27


Football Showing 1 - 20 of 36 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Atletico-PR v Cruzeiro : Over/Under 2.5 goals 21-Nov-09 21:30 21-Nov-09 23:25 -12.22
Football / Atletico-PR v Cruzeiro : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 21:30 21-Nov-09 23:25 15.98
Football / Ath Bilbao v Barcelona : Over/Under 2.5 goals 21-Nov-09 21:00 21-Nov-09 22:53 16.74
Football / Ath Bilbao v Barcelona : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 21:00 21-Nov-09 22:52 -8.00
Football / Ath Bilbao v Barcelona : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 21:00 21-Nov-09 22:52 -2.00
Football / Ath Bilbao v Barcelona : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 21:00 21-Nov-09 22:52 0.89
Football / Atletico-PR v Cruzeiro : Half Time 21-Nov-09 21:30 21-Nov-09 22:18 -3.69
Football / Auxerre v Monaco : Over/Under 2.5 goals 21-Nov-09 20:00 21-Nov-09 21:53 -3.00
Football / Auxerre v Monaco : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 20:00 21-Nov-09 21:53 2.28
Football / Auxerre v Monaco : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 20:00 21-Nov-09 21:52 4.18
Football / Auxerre v Monaco : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 20:00 21-Nov-09 21:52 -0.60
Football / Ath Bilbao v Barcelona : Half Time Score 21-Nov-09 21:00 21-Nov-09 21:47 -6.00
Football / Fiorentina v Parma : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 19:45 21-Nov-09 21:47 15.22
Football / Fiorentina v Parma : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 19:45 21-Nov-09 21:47 -6.72
Football / Fiorentina v Parma : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 19:45 21-Nov-09 21:44 -7.06
Football / Fiorentina v Parma : Over/Under 2.5 goals 21-Nov-09 19:45 21-Nov-09 21:00 12.55
Football / Auxerre v Monaco : Half Time 21-Nov-09 20:00 21-Nov-09 20:47 30.43
Football / Man Utd v Everton : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 17:30 21-Nov-09 19:26 -7.00
Football / Man Utd v Everton : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 17:30 21-Nov-09 19:25 -4.38
Football / Man Utd v Everton : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 17:30 21-Nov-09 19:24 -1.92

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Dortmund v Mainz : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 17:30 21-Nov-09 19:23 -7.66
Football / Ipswich v Sheff Wed : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 17:20 21-Nov-09 19:13 -2.48
Football / Bologna v Inter : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 17:00 21-Nov-09 18:57 -8.00
Football / Bologna v Inter : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 17:00 21-Nov-09 18:56 4.32
Football / Bologna v Inter : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 17:00 21-Nov-09 18:55 -2.00
Football / Birmingham v Fulham : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:58 -2.00
Football / Birmingham v Fulham : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:57 -10.68
Football / Hull v West Ham : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:55 -6.00
Football / Sunderland v Arsenal : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:55 10.92
Football / Burnley v Aston Villa : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:55 -8.00
Football / Burnley v Aston Villa : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:54 -2.00
Football / Burnley v Aston Villa : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:53 7.08
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 12:45 21-Nov-09 14:47 -7.00
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 12:45 21-Nov-09 14:47 -15.09
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 12:45 21-Nov-09 14:45 -0.60
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Half Time 21-Nov-09 12:45 21-Nov-09 13:39 -4.56
====================================================

As I said earlier, hada couple freak incidents today with FOOTBALL BETTING.....one was the LIVERPOOL game where lost £27.25 due to turning sound off game and watching a long distance chase race when it was 1-1 and had a goal for either side giving me profit....BUT THERE WERE 2 GOALS IN A MINUTE......and when I turned around to check game after race over ....it was 2-2 ...so loss incurred instead of a profit.

The other freak incident was my computer screen freezing when I was about to lay HT DRAW in a game .......had to swith computer off and restart it....and of course by time got into markets a goal was scored right before HT ....meaning I lost on a game where would have won on again.

PARMA were close to taking lead against FIORENTINA in 1st half....but missed clearly best chance of half near HT.................so very close to good return there......but not to be.

Horse racing again subsidising FOOTBALL bets ...but i will continue with thread, as the discipline of posting RESULTS here might keep the urge to over stake in check.

So far with football -

16.11.09 GAME 1 - Bray v Sporting Fingal ..............................................PROFIT £ 40.00
17.11.09 GAME 2 - Slovakia v Chile .........................................................PROFIT 13.37
17.11.09 GAME 3- Netherlands v Spain......................................................PROFIT 1.10
17.11.09 GAME 4- Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 ...................PROFIT 7.36
18.11.09 GAME 5 - Poland v Canada ......................................................LOSS ( 24.91 )
18.11.09 GAME 6- Ukraine v Greece .......................................................LOSS ( 19.57)
18.11.09 GAME 7- France v ROI ............................................................LOSS ( 73.06 )
18.11.09 GAME 8- Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno ..................................PROFIT 57.15
18.11.09 GAME 9- Uruaguay v Costa Rica..............................................LOSS ( 21.06 )
19.11.09 GAME 10-Astra Ploiesti v Dinamo Bucharest ............................PROFIT 8.11
19.11.09 GAME 11-Wales U16 v N Ireland U16 ......................................PROFIT 4.93
19.11.09 GAME 12- LDU v River Plate (Uru)............................................LOSS ( 8.16 )
20.11.09 GAME 13-Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn................................LOSS ( 104.96 )
20.11.09 GAME 14- Marseille v Paris St - G..........................................LOSS ( 72.32 )
20.11.09 GAME 15 -Legia Warsaw v Polonia Warsaw ...........................PROFIT 3.50
21.11.09 GAME 16 - Liverpool v Man City..............................................LOSS ( 27.25 )
21.11.09 GAME 17-Burnley v Aston Villa .............................................LOSS ( 17.08 )
21.11.09 GAME 18-Birmingham v Fulham .............................................LOSS ( 12.68 ).
21.11.09 GAME 19- Sunderland v Arsenal ............................................PROFIT 10.92
21.11.09 GAME 20-Bologna v Inter Milan.................................................LOSS ( 5.68 )
21.11.09 GAME 21- Hull v West Ham Utd .............................................LOSS ( 6.00 )
21.11.09 GAME 22-Man Utd v Everton.................................................LOSS ( 13.30 )
21.11.09 GAME 23- Fiorentina v Parma .............................................PROFIT 13.99
21.11.09 GAME 24-Ipswitch v Sheffield Wednesday..............................LOSS ( 2.48 )
21.11.09 GAME 25-Dortmund v Mainz..................................................LOSS ( 7.66 )
21.11.09 GAME 26 -Auxerre v Monaco................................................PROFIT 33.29
21.11.09 GAME 27-Ath Bilbao v Barcelona...........................................PROFIT 1.63
21.11.09 GAME 28- Athletico PR v Cruzeiro ........................................PROFIT 3.76


TOTAL LOSS ON FOOTBALL BETS SO FAR = £ ( 217.06 )

add to list of excuses.

'I turned the sound down'
'I posted early and missed the best price'
'lee h thread annoyed me'
'i haven**ched much racing lately'
'I overstaked'
'I understaked'
' i lost too much in running'
'I should have put a lay up in running'


etc etc etc etc

lee h2 - Why is it you pester me all the time on the HORSE RACING thread ......and when I am in profit on HORSE RACING on current thread ( using money) and on ATTEMPT 2 thread re using paper bank............................you decide to chicken out and post on the FOOTBALL thread wher there is a loss position........which I already know about??????


You are just an person of no character....... who has lied often on other threads ....never reads any of threads re horse racing ....never answers questions as to what the fk they are "good at" ....just lurks in the shadows and avoids the POSITION NOW ON HORSE RACING THREAD WHERE A PROFIT IS SHOWN???????

So when you grow testicles perhaps you will be man enough to come onto horse racing thread where there is a clear profit shown over 11 days..........plus there was over 1,000 points profit on paer bank ATTEMPT 2 thread...................................YOU ALWAYS DISAPPEAR INTO THE MURKY SHADOWS WHEN THERE IS A PROFIT ON THREADS ....DON'T YOU????????

calm down DFC!!!

All your previous attempts at this (horses and football) have all ended with you going skint!

I hope this one doesn't but you are such a chaser that one bad day will seal your fate!!!

GL to you