General Betting
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AS football and STAKING on football has been my achilles heel, then I'm trying KELLY STAKES CALCULATOR to see how this fares.
OPENING BANK - £395.72
Will post some thoughts on match....then select bet/s and use KC ......not sure whether FULL KELLY .....probably partial initially.
Also will do bets IR to try to go all green.
GL with bets
Will post a 7.45 game shortly
OPENING BANK - £395.72
Will post some thoughts on match....then select bet/s and use KC ......not sure whether FULL KELLY .....probably partial initially.
Also will do bets IR to try to go all green.
GL with bets
Will post a 7.45 game shortly
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Bray Wanderers 19 : 45 Sporting Fingal
2nd leg of play-off.......1st leg 2-0 to SF. Never seen either team play.....so just going on stats plus intuition . BRAY have been getting poor results for a while now.....but I suspect they will win tonight ......unlikely to quailfy though. 6.6 odds for BRAY/BRAY look tempting as i think they are likely to score 1st in first half. So will make this main bet.....with cover bets. MONEY BANK now : £ 395.72 ODDS AVAILABLE : 6.6 ( Betfair) PROBABILITY % = 4-1 ( 20 %) STAKE INDICATED : 19.64 So will use roughly half stake on all bets on match......as follows - BRAY /BRAY £ 3.51 at 6.6 and £ 2.49 at 6.4 DRAW/BRAY £2 at 8.6 1-1 CS £2 at 7.6 2-2 CS £2 at 17.5 Will LAY BRAY if they take lead in HT market probably.......and small back on away team too. GL with bets. |
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One factor that could well effect this match is whether either or both teams have had players involved at INTERNATIONAL level , especially young players.......just gussing that FINGAL have had more players involved and this could give BRAY that chance to grab early lead IF THEY GO FOR IT.
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This is absolute guesswork
what is the point exactly? |
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Helps to CONTROL STAKING lee h2 ...........................
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TOTAL STAKING indicated by KC was 19.64.....so another 2 CS bets to give possible outs as game progresses ...with £2 on 1-2 and 2-3 ....................MAKING £16 TOTAL STAKE ON MATCH.
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Game is on tg4 live
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Placed a LAY on HT DRAW to gain £8 at 1.42 ...in case away team score....or home team
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HT 0-0 ........................
Scrappy 1st half....home team had the best of chances to score ...but they have no skill at all on passing or finishing......so their best chance of scoring is a set piece and LUCKY skirmishy goal ...probably an OG ]:) Have 0-0 coverd at start of match with a £2 bet ......so as have a DRAW/BRAY bet....will stick £3 on both 1-0 and 0-1 and hope home team scores first in 2nd half. |
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Hoping for a LATE home team score to wriggle out to profit
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Have now over staked this match................the away team look the better organised of 2 teams .......so I expect BRAY to throw everything at them in 2nd half .....but 1-0 looks the likely finish IF they score.
Need to cover 1-1 again with £2 ..... |
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Now going to lay 0-0 ( small profit of £3 on it presently ...as I expect a goal 2nd half ......could be by either team .....so the lay on 0-0 will half the over all loss on CS I don't have coverd...and also reduce over all stakes down to the KELLY TOTAL STAKES indicated.
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Now sitting with LOSS in CS market if stays 0-0.......................of £!8.80 ........a goal by either team will change position.....I suspect it finishes 1-1 now.
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Both teams could have scored already ....so looks like goals could come now ...so lay on UNDER 2.5 goals to gain £12 .....helps if 2 goals scored.....
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0-1 to away team....now fun begins :D
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Had a further lay on UNDER 2.5 goals ...now gain £"0 there if goes to it
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Layed 0-1 to sit with loss about £10 on that if stays that way ...but i think at least 1 more goal in this .......so helps with +£6 on other CSs
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Really should be 0-2 now...what a miss by FINGAL
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Game petering out now...1 more goal and small profit made ...otherwise a loss.
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BRAY are just no class players ...giving 100% ....another huge chance missed!!!!
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Complete guesswork but good luck.
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there's your 1-1 !
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1-1 ...the likely score now :D ...another goal and more profit.........
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5 mins + IT ......
A goal might happen yet |
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where does the 1-1 put you now?... and what if another goal?
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Whoooppppeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 2-1 :D :D
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goalie makes amends for his earlier mistake!.. nice one dfc :)
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FFS I have 2-3 and market is closed ?????
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The 2-2 cover bets have helped :D
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Exciting game 2nd half eventually .........
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Hi john ....missed your post when swearing because was 2-1 and market never opened :D
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2-2 FT ....a profitable game ....a bit fortunate ...but the 2-2 initiall bet + the LAY on UNDER 2.5 goals made profit ......
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Football: £40.64 | Horse Racing: £25.64 Total P&L: £66.28
Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Football / Bray v Sporting Fingal : Half Time/Full Time 16-Nov-09 19:45 16-Nov-09 21:40 -8.00 Football / Bray v Sporting Fingal : Correct Score 16-Nov-09 19:45 16-Nov-09 21:40 32.98 Football / Bray v Sporting Fingal : Over/Under 2.5 goals 16-Nov-09 19:45 16-Nov-09 21:35 19.02 Football / Bray v Sporting Fingal : Half Time 16-Nov-09 19:45 16-Nov-09 20:33 -3.36 BANK now £436.36 ..... |
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nice day.
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It was very very annoying that when went to 2-1 .....the market kept closed .....so could not lay BRAY to try to make more profit.....and 2-2 happened when market closed ....though with hindsight having 2-2 covered and 2-3 ......the profit was secure by then
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Gone well johnizere with late winners on horses and on footy.........hopefully the KELLY STAKING exercise will help me to CONTROL some of urges to OVER STAKE..........
Looks like CS LAY thread is being rested with all INTERNATIONAL games etc .....hopefully will get back in motion soon.......I'll try to contribute to both. Hope you are doing well today too john ......away to lie down ...as knackered .... Very whole hearted game that .....lot of effort .....lacking a bit skill ...but still a good 2nd half made it entertaining!!! Cheers the noooooooooooooooo |
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Last 30 days p&l
Horse Racing: -£11.90 | Soccer: -£92.04 Total P&L: -£103.94 been tough going, mostly down to last 2 weeks where it seemed unreal. off to spain in the morning, give me chance to regroup. gl tomorrow. |
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Hope it is a HOLIDAY john ....enjoy break .....sometimes we get "bad" runs .....just keep control of STAKING ....as you are pretty good at guessing what way a game might gop......
G N the noooooooooo...... |
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OPENING BANK after racing today - £ 445.47
Slovakia v Chile A friendly ....I suspect CHILE win this so main bet is DRAW /CHILE with a cover on 1-1.... AVAILABLE ODDS on DR/CHILE : 7.2 ( BF) PROBABILITY GUESS: 5-1 ( 16.67 %) STAKES INDICATED :- 11.24 BETS ARE - DRAW/CHILE : £ 6 1-1 BACK £ 2 LAY ON DRAW IN HT MARKET TO WIN £9 GL with bets |
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Another cover bet on 2-1 SLO.......................
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