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mussleburgh man
21 Nov 09 00:55
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Date Joined: 22 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 226 | Blogger: mussleburgh man's blog
In your opinion(s) will this strategy work. I have built up a bank of £1500, started with £250 laying outsiders - not giving away how i pick them obviously, but they have to meet 8 criterias to be layed- i lay on average 8 horses a day at a price no less than 33's, no bigger than 50's. I play to a 1/4 of my bank and have been doing this for 2 months. I have only hit 2 losers from 480 lays.

I have number of questions,

1. Have i been lucky and this will all end horribly.
2. Should i now be reducing my liability to bank size say 1/8th
3. Any one tried something similar and failed.

any advice wud be appreciated !!
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Report Lusitano71 November 21, 2009 12:59 AM GMT
know nothing about horses but 1/4 of your bank is way to big (on early stages its ok but you will come down either by your own will or by being forced to it)
Report DaveEdwards November 21, 2009 7:00 AM GMT
Lusitano71 21 Nov 01:59


know nothing about horses but 1/4 of your bank is way to big (on early stages its ok but you will come down either by your own will or by being forced to it)


...............................................

Agreed on the above. Also, presumably at this time of year you are laying over the jumps. Anything can happen, watch out for one of your 33/1 shots having shown form running through a bog three years ago etc etc. A 480 race sample is very good though.

I would reiterate the point about limiting your liability. There are numerous ways you could approach this. If you lay to a liability of 1 to 2% of bank you will protect yourself against a bad run. You could either maintain your current liability level and wait until your bank increases until that liability is at a more managable level or you could cut right back immediately. I'd suggest the latter. If you laid to 2% you'd still be looking to collect £30 which is fine. It may seem small in comparison to your current level, but if you really want to ensure the long term viability of your strategy you must think in terms of a liability reduction. All the best.
Report mussleburgh man November 21, 2009 5:59 PM GMT
any other veiws on the long term viability of this strategy please !!
Report birch2 November 21, 2009 9:21 PM GMT
2 months is way to short to answer your question on viability - you will need to continue for over 12 months. At the moment there is too much of a possibility of luck in your performance. 1/4 of your bank at a time seems too high to me. your out of the game if 3 or 4 'losers' come up in a short space of time. Only time will tell
Report ZEALOT November 21, 2009 9:45 PM GMT
no chance
Report aye robot November 21, 2009 10:30 PM GMT
At odds of 40 (ish) you would expect about 12 losers from 480 bets, so you're doing well- but the problem is that at such long odds you would expect it to take a long time for the averages to stabalise. A couple of thousand bets down the road you can start to become a bit more confident, so just keep plugging on for a few more months. I would agree with others that 1/4 of your bank seems like an awful lot to be risking though, personally I'd cut that radically.

It's generally not a good idea to try to make too much money too quickly, but rather to remain patient and make sure you stay in the game.

Spend some time working out new strategies- it's much better to have a range of strategies running simultaneously than to try to ramp up just one too quickly. You'll find that that way you suffer much less variance and don't get so bored. Personally I get much more pleasure from watching a new strategy prove itself winning £2 a time than seeing my "bread and butter" algorithms doing the same old thing.

Even if your current plan does go t1ts up the good news is that you now have enough money in Betfair that you should never need to deposit again. If I were you I'd make that your first goal, I think everything else follows.
Report Tightfisted November 21, 2009 11:41 PM GMT
I have a system for backing long shots... from 1st Jan 2009 to 20 Sept, reached +570 points but this week it finally went a few points into the red. I'm hoping for a change soon...
Report Aunty Post November 22, 2009 6:54 AM GMT
DaveEdwards 21 Nov 08:00


Lusitano71 21 Nov 01:59


know nothing about horses but 1/4 of your bank is way to big (on early stages its ok but you will come down either by your own will or by being forced to it)


...............................................

Agreed on the above. Also, presumably at this time of year you are laying over the jumps. Anything can happen, watch out for one of your 33/1 shots having shown form running through a bog three years ago etc etc. A 480 race sample is very good though.

I would reiterate the point about limiting your liability. There are numerous ways you could approach this. If you lay to a liability of 1 to 2% of bank you will protect yourself against a bad run. You could either maintain your current liability level and wait until your bank increases until that liability is at a more managable level or you could cut right back immediately. I'd suggest the latter. If you laid to 2% you'd still be looking to collect £30 which is fine. It may seem small in comparison to your current level, but if you really want to ensure the long term viability of your strategy you must think in terms of a liability reduction. All the best.

He wouldn't look to collect £30 here as 2% liability, at odds of 40, is less than £2 stake
(actually closer to 77p).........

I still fully agree that he needs to cut well back from where he is now.

The very first time I attempted, the long odds approach, I hit one at 60 on the first race!
Report DaveEdwards November 22, 2009 7:23 AM GMT
OK Aunty, fair point! I hadn't broken it down further into what the liability would be in his odds range. Obviously it appeared obvious to yourself having worked in that range before.
Report Aunty Post November 22, 2009 7:30 AM GMT
Too flipping right Dave and never again for me!

To be 59 points down on, the first bet, and the thought of having to claw it back, up to 59 times, without another loser, is too much for me thank you!

Still wish the guy all the best as we're all in it together.
Report DaveEdwards November 22, 2009 7:41 AM GMT
I think the key issue for me with laying is the liability in relation to bank and the lesson comes from the established high street layers. When do they ever lay anything that could wipe out a quarter of their assets? They work constantly to manage their risks and we should do the same. Getting hit to that level would clearly have an effect on your mental wellbeing for the rest of that day at least!
Report theweeman November 22, 2009 7:43 AM GMT
mussleburgh man 21 Nov 01:55

any advice wud be appreciated !!


unsure mate, tell me you criteria and then I'll answer your questions
Report Class33 November 22, 2009 8:52 AM GMT
MM, from the sounds of it you're making £10 per race for doing some serious research. While it's all well and good to limit your stakes to 2% of your bank, do you want to be doing this work for peanuts? Roughly 5% of your bank gives you about £2 per race. Is this enough to keep you interested? If so, geat. If not, how much keeps you interested?

I don't think anybody but you can answer this.
Report Feck N Hell November 22, 2009 9:33 AM GMT
Class 33 heh- a good rugged product from BRCW. I used to enjoy the thrash from these things on the Waterloo- Exeter route back in the 80's and early 90's
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