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kenilworth
09 Nov 09 20:12
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Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
| Topic/replies: 15,627 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
Is it my imagination or is it happening a lot more this season ?
Pause Switch to Standard View Laying the leader.
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Report Kamikaze City November 9, 2009 9:30 PM GMT
could be fruitful, esp on envisaged heavy ground and a course that has a long straight run in.
Report tobermory November 9, 2009 10:13 PM GMT
this definitely don't work imo
Report kenilworth November 9, 2009 10:38 PM GMT
tobermory, I have always favoured 'backing the leader'' in the past but now I'm not so sure. The jury is out.
Report tobermory November 9, 2009 10:48 PM GMT
I have a few times , while bored, and with low stakes, spent a few hours with laying in running stategies.

There was one race where 4 horses were matched below 1.35 , and many more with Odds On in running leaders caught

Every time though the profits were cancelled out by the races where something takes it up 2 out , going well, and wins comfortably .

The In Running Markets do seem remarkably accurate when you follow them for the whole day , more so than someone would expect if they just glanced at the threads on the Horse Forum!
Report kenilworth November 9, 2009 10:51 PM GMT
Crossed wires methinks. I was referring to footie matches !!
Report tobermory November 9, 2009 10:51 PM GMT
:^0
Report aye robot November 10, 2009 9:46 AM GMT
Number 1 rule of in-running I reckon:

As soon as something looks like winning you lay it, lay it, lay it.
Report kenilworth November 10, 2009 10:37 AM GMT
Why ?
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer November 10, 2009 12:13 PM GMT
kenilworth 10 Nov 11:37
Why ?




Because often the price goes too short. Not always but often.

Lay the status quo is what I tend to do, with exceptions. It seems to work.
Report aye robot November 10, 2009 12:32 PM GMT
There are too many people competing to back the winner, strong in running leaders are consistently backed far too short.

I have bots that do this blind (as in they have no idea what's happening in the events). It's not quite as simple as just laying the shortest selection- they look for a number of criteria, but basicly run-away leaders in any sport are generally value to lay. When events swing the other way a little bit people panic and you can often green up with a another value bet in the other direction.

If there are more than 2 outcomes to the event then the best option for greening up is often laying another outcome to complete what can be a massive book with a colossal payout on un-layed outcomes. Either that or just let your bets run, sh1t happens all the time.

In sports like football where things move relatively slowly there's no reason why a human shouldn't be able to do this at least as effectively as a bot if he's a calm and sensible sort.

Best of all- you never risk much money like this, it would have to be one of the best ways of working with a small bank as your exposure is always small, bets are plentiful your wins are very frequent.

I get the impression that some people think they're stealing money when they back at short prices, but they should ask themselves why people are willing to lay these bets, believe me, it's not because they're stupid.
Report brendanuk1 November 10, 2009 12:40 PM GMT
average 3 goals a game i think in the prem and not many winning 3 nil, people just covering the other outcomes
Report Rocket to the FACE November 10, 2009 12:40 PM GMT
Or people who backed at higher odds and are now wanting to get out.
Report diggler November 10, 2009 12:43 PM GMT
ken, definitely happened alot last couple of weeks, however not so sure over the season so far. (i'm talking premiership matches) . Do you count the draw as a leader when there is an equalizer? in which case should you count it when its still 0-0 ? Also the odds on the leader straight after a goal seem to have been a bit higher last few weeks.

Would be interesting to keep a record of results and the match odds straight after a goal
Report brendanuk1 November 10, 2009 12:43 PM GMT
Or people who backed at higher odds and are now wanting to get out.

I try to sit back from laying straight after a goal as there is mad rush to lay off, after few mins price is much better
Report kenilworth November 10, 2009 1:14 PM GMT
I try to sit back from laying straight after a goal as there is mad rush to lay off, after few mins price is much better

Yes, and the people accomodating those rushing to layoff after a goal are no fools either.
Report aye robot November 10, 2009 1:23 PM GMT
One of the key principles of in running betting is that you should try to bet against painc, greed and fear. Anywhere that people are rushing to do anything the smart money is calmly doing the opposite.

For me IR betting isn't about the sport, it's about the people who are watching the sport.
Report The Betfairy November 10, 2009 1:26 PM GMT
Sometimes rushing to lay off is the right thing to do.
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer November 10, 2009 3:01 PM GMT
Sometimes rushing to lay off is the right thing to do.






Sometimes it is, sometimes it is not. It just comes back to value again, as it does every time.

This bloke aye robot is no fool, imo.
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer November 10, 2009 3:07 PM GMT
Sorry, I made a gross assumption there. I assumed aye robot is a bloke. That was very bad as I like to think of myself as a new man and a lateral thinker.
Report kenilworth November 10, 2009 3:22 PM GMT
Alex, that's two people you have declared your liking for.
Report brendanuk1 November 11, 2009 11:13 AM GMT
ok so sorted, lay the leader if its a value lay, if not back it ;)

more people thinking recently that the leader is a value lay then, shirley.
Report tashkent terror November 11, 2009 9:59 PM GMT
In cycling, draughting equates to approx 30% energy savings so any horse (especially on a windy day) leading for the first circuit must be a good lay.....if the IR price drops 30% below the SP price (which it usually does) then in the long term you should make a tidy profit......easy peasy.
Report quietgenius November 11, 2009 10:01 PM GMT
depends which way the wind is blowing
Report sweetchildofmine November 11, 2009 10:49 PM GMT
who had a long thread entitled ''lay the leader'' was it the abomnible foot soldiers?
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