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kenilworth
09 Nov 09 20:12
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Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
| Topic/replies: 15,627 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
Is it my imagination or is it happening a lot more this season ?

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Replies: 24
By:
Kamikaze City
When: 09 Nov 09 21:30
could be fruitful, esp on envisaged heavy ground and a course that has a long straight run in.
By:
tobermory
When: 09 Nov 09 22:13
this definitely don't work imo
By:
kenilworth
When: 09 Nov 09 22:38
tobermory, I have always favoured 'backing the leader'' in the past but now I'm not so sure. The jury is out.
By:
tobermory
When: 09 Nov 09 22:48
I have a few times , while bored, and with low stakes, spent a few hours with laying in running stategies.

There was one race where 4 horses were matched below 1.35 , and many more with Odds On in running leaders caught

Every time though the profits were cancelled out by the races where something takes it up 2 out , going well, and wins comfortably .

The In Running Markets do seem remarkably accurate when you follow them for the whole day , more so than someone would expect if they just glanced at the threads on the Horse Forum!
By:
kenilworth
When: 09 Nov 09 22:51
Crossed wires methinks. I was referring to footie matches !!
By:
tobermory
When: 09 Nov 09 22:51
:^0
By:
aye robot
When: 10 Nov 09 09:46
Number 1 rule of in-running I reckon:

As soon as something looks like winning you lay it, lay it, lay it.
By:
kenilworth
When: 10 Nov 09 10:37
Why ?
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 10 Nov 09 12:13
kenilworth 10 Nov 11:37
Why ?




Because often the price goes too short. Not always but often.

Lay the status quo is what I tend to do, with exceptions. It seems to work.
By:
aye robot
When: 10 Nov 09 12:32
There are too many people competing to back the winner, strong in running leaders are consistently backed far too short.

I have bots that do this blind (as in they have no idea what's happening in the events). It's not quite as simple as just laying the shortest selection- they look for a number of criteria, but basicly run-away leaders in any sport are generally value to lay. When events swing the other way a little bit people panic and you can often green up with a another value bet in the other direction.

If there are more than 2 outcomes to the event then the best option for greening up is often laying another outcome to complete what can be a massive book with a colossal payout on un-layed outcomes. Either that or just let your bets run, sh1t happens all the time.

In sports like football where things move relatively slowly there's no reason why a human shouldn't be able to do this at least as effectively as a bot if he's a calm and sensible sort.

Best of all- you never risk much money like this, it would have to be one of the best ways of working with a small bank as your exposure is always small, bets are plentiful your wins are very frequent.

I get the impression that some people think they're stealing money when they back at short prices, but they should ask themselves why people are willing to lay these bets, believe me, it's not because they're stupid.
By:
brendanuk1
When: 10 Nov 09 12:40
average 3 goals a game i think in the prem and not many winning 3 nil, people just covering the other outcomes
By:
Rocket to the FACE
When: 10 Nov 09 12:40
Or people who backed at higher odds and are now wanting to get out.
By:
diggler
When: 10 Nov 09 12:43
ken, definitely happened alot last couple of weeks, however not so sure over the season so far. (i'm talking premiership matches) . Do you count the draw as a leader when there is an equalizer? in which case should you count it when its still 0-0 ? Also the odds on the leader straight after a goal seem to have been a bit higher last few weeks.

Would be interesting to keep a record of results and the match odds straight after a goal
By:
brendanuk1
When: 10 Nov 09 12:43
Or people who backed at higher odds and are now wanting to get out.

I try to sit back from laying straight after a goal as there is mad rush to lay off, after few mins price is much better
By:
kenilworth
When: 10 Nov 09 13:14
I try to sit back from laying straight after a goal as there is mad rush to lay off, after few mins price is much better

Yes, and the people accomodating those rushing to layoff after a goal are no fools either.
By:
aye robot
When: 10 Nov 09 13:23
One of the key principles of in running betting is that you should try to bet against painc, greed and fear. Anywhere that people are rushing to do anything the smart money is calmly doing the opposite.

For me IR betting isn't about the sport, it's about the people who are watching the sport.
By:
The Betfairy
When: 10 Nov 09 13:26
Sometimes rushing to lay off is the right thing to do.
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 10 Nov 09 15:01
Sometimes rushing to lay off is the right thing to do.






Sometimes it is, sometimes it is not. It just comes back to value again, as it does every time.

This bloke aye robot is no fool, imo.
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 10 Nov 09 15:07
Sorry, I made a gross assumption there. I assumed aye robot is a bloke. That was very bad as I like to think of myself as a new man and a lateral thinker.
By:
kenilworth
When: 10 Nov 09 15:22
Alex, that's two people you have declared your liking for.
By:
brendanuk1
When: 11 Nov 09 11:13
ok so sorted, lay the leader if its a value lay, if not back it ;)

more people thinking recently that the leader is a value lay then, shirley.
By:
tashkent terror
When: 11 Nov 09 21:59
In cycling, draughting equates to approx 30% energy savings so any horse (especially on a windy day) leading for the first circuit must be a good lay.....if the IR price drops 30% below the SP price (which it usually does) then in the long term you should make a tidy profit......easy peasy.
By:
quietgenius
When: 11 Nov 09 22:01
depends which way the wind is blowing
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 11 Nov 09 22:49
who had a long thread entitled ''lay the leader'' was it the abomnible foot soldiers?
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