been on here a while but I cannot see a way to make money

I based my posting on a conversation I had with someone who has read it. I'm quite happy to say at least one thing. Pullein's book will definitely be more mainstream in it's approach to winners selection and value finding than my own. I'm happy with the point I was trying to make, albeit I conceed that I have not read it yet.

If I got the wrong end of the stick with regard to who started what, then I apologise.

You'll notice I've no intention of being drawn into any arguments.

Well keep your chin up pal it'll come. Winning everyday isn't easy.

You'll notice I've no intention of being drawn into any arguments.

Dave, I assure you, neither do I, but if someone has a pop at me, I will respond.

go on ken i'll hold your jacket

OK

otherwise intelligent thread descending into chest beating nonsense

not by me it isn't

..nor me.

kenilworth - can you post up one of your profitable threads - ta :)

Hello to Dave Edwards and Son of Dunc :)

From Hiawatha

Basically you need to be betting when the odds are in your favour and that doesn't happen too often, and unless you find when that occurs, you won't win. GL."
Never have truer words been spoken but it will fall on deaf ears.

Whilst the first part of the statement I agree with, not the second part.
There is value to be found in nearly every horse race if you know how to look for it.

DOUBLED 28 Oct 08:45


kenilworth - can you post up one of your profitable threads - ta

Doubled, there is one on this forum right now if you care to have a look.

You can take solace in the fact that i am in the same boat pretty much, have deposited £500 over the last 10 days and lost the lot through bad betting bad luck and poor judgement. Friday last week summed in right up, put £180 on Baczinsky at 2.02 in play didn't trade out when she went to 1.45 got near the end of the match. Her opponent won the first point of her service game at 4-4 in the 3rd set got out at 2.02 for no profit she ends up breaking in that game and winning the match. Very next bet Patty Schnyder after being a break up put £180 on at 1.90 loses the next 3 games and the set, missed my trade out point when she went 2-0 up in the 2nd set then loses 6 sraight games. Typical

If someone showed you how to make risk free money every single day, would you have the discipline to stick to it?

Betfair is a bit like an upside down jigsaw puzzle.
You can turn it around and around over and over and not see where the missing piece fits, then suddenly you catch a glance in a mirror and the missing piece jumps out at you.

If you're struggling with discipline give up now.
If you're losing money slash your ante.

whats his antie done to deserve a slashing?

Love the jigsaw analogy. Not so sure if a lack of discipline is immediate cause to give up. It was something I had trouble with, but if you are prepared to look at yourself and delve inside to see what is making you tick then you can do it.

Hello, coach, if you are doing another music quiz make it a bit easier this time!

Hello to all my buddies

Beat The OverRound 28 Oct 15:27


If someone showed you how to make risk free money every single day, would you have the discipline to stick to it?

-------------------------------------------------------

Yes without a doubt 100% yes.
I enjoy the thrill of wining money rather than the emptiness felt at losing a big wedge.

Been looking at various systems over the last few days but reluctant to expose them in case I'll kill off any gold mines I have come across - unlikely I know.

Barry, there is no such thing as a winning system, of that you can be assured. You may have a method that works, but a system will have too many rules. You cannot use rules to beat any sporting event. There are too many variables to take into account. A system is very rigid and doesn't lend itself to this type of analysis. Your best hope is to have a method that allows you to analyse data in a methodical way an make an informed decision.

Please don't anyone have a go at me about this. If anyone does I shall not respond.

Does that count for pre-kick off trading?

Sorry Rocket, fair comment. Just to qualify my last posting, I am referring to the prediction of the outcome of a sporting event. As for trading, there may or may not be systems that people use and to be honest I haven't got a clue!

Dave, there plenty of systems, but I don't believe there are any infallible systems.

Like a lot of the other commenters said, it's the size of your bets that surprises me for a "gut-feeling" style bettor. I wonder, is that because of a particularly lucky patch you have had in the past? I say that because a couple of years ago I won 6K on a massive outsider and it made my betting crazy for quite a while. From putting £10 on a horse i went to £200, basically from over-confidence and the fact that i obviously had plenty left so didn't notice the damage and stupidity. After a few mental £300 bets on the footy WC, which I don't know jack about, I finally wised up and got my equilibrium back.

Now I put everything in excel, you can't hide from the truth when it's all accounted for, like it or not. I stick to the horses and baseball because I've spent a lot of time analysing them as best I can - I don't touch footy because I now realise my strengths, such as they are. I won't bet more than £30. And even spending a couple of hours a day working at it means pin money, at best - but a losing patch won't wipe me out. Maybe I'm now too cautious, but I'm not sh***ing a brick waiting for Larsson to equalise in the 90th minute so i don't lose half a months wages...

Agreed Kenilworth. Any system can work in the short term, no matter how outlandish or basic the procedure is. The problem is usually that the system works while the stakes are small, stakes are increased..........you know the rest!

Yes without a doubt 100% yes.
I enjoy the thrill of wining money rather than the emptiness felt at losing a big wedge.

Then if you are good at maths or handy with Excel, there are hundreds of risk free arbs in the place market every week.

The usual objection is "what if bookies don't pay third dividend or no fourth dividend"

The answer is simple, don't dabble in markets where two scratchings would reduce the number of runners paid out.

The beauty of the place market as opposed to the win market, is that it's not as easily evident.

Hello Coach,

Agree with what Dave says about making the quiz easier next time ;)

If you're having £200 - £500 bets you should easily be winning something on virtually every race,providing of course you know what youre doing. £10 a race is a 100k a year.

only way to long term profit at sports betting is specialize so narrowly, study so obsessively, and bet so conservatively that you might as well be doing a proper job

alternatively buy shares in a listed bookmaker and let them do all the work

are you serious about a boring method of getting back £2000 over the next year ? have you tried using introductory free bet offers / matched betting ?
google "donglemouse matched betting" for some inspiration.

If you are seriously looking for any answers with regards to making 'it' pay, then stop looking here or anywhere else for that matter. Remember, those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk.

spot on mate ^ there are big winners on here [few] they are not on this forum spouting off systems .

I managed to have a brief chat with a guy in London through a friend who is making a shed load In running . I saw P/L 45k 3 months

I dropped a few hints about paying for training ....... he didnt want to know !! can you blame him

Its fun though

Surely the secrets are in a £47 ebook?

kE ?

What Betfairy? Are you implying all ebooks are not written by individuals who are in the upper echelon of all punters and are not going to instruct their prospective readers on how to get there? Shame on you for being so cynical!

Remember, those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk.


Read that again ^

one barry robson --
would you be happy doubling your bank in 12 mnths --or is this too slow .????????????/

LuisGarcia 30 Oct 10:26


are you serious about a boring method of getting back £2000 over the next year ? have you tried using introductory free bet offers / matched betting ?
google "donglemouse matched betting" for some inspiration.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

doing this also but my gambling is eating into the profits.

Outlier 30 Oct 10:40


If you are seriously looking for any answers with regards to making 'it' pay, then stop looking here or anywhere else for that matter. Remember, those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk.

I don't know do I? Read my postings again if you have the time. Then, if I don't know and you know of a better source to help with the discipline side of betting please share it with us.

I am not sharing my methods of analysis for betting so fair enough comment on that, but please do not try to give the impression that everything written here is all useless. And if you do know something that might help Barry, why don't you do the decent thing and tell him?

I know and i talk. Doubled my bank in 4 weeks.

^^^ 2009

Read my thread and see how its done. Im not here to gloat but i am a superb football bettor. 2009 so what? because i joined then does that mean i don't know what im doing?

Day by day betting is a waste of money.Think longterm.Get stuck into the outright Premiership market.You know its between Man U and Chelsea,maybe Arsenal.You can adjust your position every week.

have a go laying horses 20/1 to 50/1 and stop after 4 or 5

This man should self-exclude, he is an addicted gambler, not a newbie in need of a system.

agree, self exclusion might be a good idea.

It's true, I've proven it.
I deliberately left some arb opportunites hanging for ages, nobody came to collect.

So it's true, write a winning method on the footpath outside Royal Ascot, and plenty will see it, but not one person will be using it a month later.

:p

Either that or use loss-limits, as I suggested earlier.
Above all, he needs to lose the idea of getting his money back.
Past losses and future bets are independent events.

BTO
dont think many people understood wot u was on about me old son

BTO,

Youve deliberately left arb opportunities on the Prem Winner market? If so, I take it you mean offer a price to lay thats shorter then wildly available elsewhere?

I agree bto in a big way.

Let's not forget, when trying to make money people don't have to worry themselves about the mega traders operating out of their ivory towers. I couldn't care less about them. In fact I love these traders as they add to the liquidity of the markets.

All you have to concern yourself is being better informed than the average user (and controlling yourself and your staking). Difficult to be better informed than the average users? Go to the football forum and look at the average posting on there.

You could carve a winning forumla on the steps leading into the Jockey Club. Even a proven winner, how many people would mess it up?

"The Betfairy 30 Oct 12:07

Surely the secrets are in a £47 ebook?"

Classic ! B-) :)

No, I left lay opportunities on the place markets that could have been arbed against the bookies easily, and they hung there like smelly socks for over an hour.
Granted, some people may not have been around, but consider that if I'd done the same thing on the win market, i'd have been matched within seconds.
A UK punter has to use oddschecker or work out the place offering either manually or via spreadsheet, but I have a Betfair account in AUD and bookies accounts in GBP.
So not only do I have to work out the place dividends and arbs, I have to convert the currencies.
All I can say is it's worth the extra effort, and judging by yesterday's experiment, I'll have sufficient opportunites for quite some time.
Perhaps not now though ;)

BTO,

I dont bet on horses but how do punters arb place markets as fixed odds firms dont offer (or rarely) offer place betting only.

Paddy Power does.

Others offer eachway only, so you have to adapt, there has to be enough of a place arb to offset the win non arb component.
An excel spreadsheet is your friend.

Hats off to BTO, a very magnanomous gesture sharing that information.

Arbing isn't my style, but I do appreciate your openness. Well done.

I was reading though this thread last night.......some decent forumites on here offering some good advice and insight.......nice one lads.

"Your best hope is to have a method that allows you to analyse data in a methodical way an make an informed decision." - DaveEdwards
DEAD RIGHT!

Just to qualify my last posting, I am referring to the prediction of the outcome of a sporting event. As for trading, there may or may not be systems that people use and to be honest I haven't got a clue! - DaveEdwards
RIGHT AGAIN. It's safer to bet on the probability of a 'swing' than on the actual outcome.

"Those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk."
VERY TRUE, BUT...

"If you do know something that might help Barry, why don't you do the decent thing and tell him?" - DaveEdwards
WELL SAID. People like Barry need and deserve to be helped. (See my comment 25 Oct)

Just a thought Barry.

My way to crack my discipline problem and simultaneously learn my strategies for consistent profits on here was to just bet £2 a go, with the goal of locking in 10% on every bet.

Cost me £20-40 a month as a hobby/habit for about 6 months and then I started turning a profit.

The thrill was not in winning pennies but percentages on my stake. I'd get more of a buzz from winning 20% on a £2 stake than 2% on a £20 stake.

I do no analysis at all. It's all about the numbers on here and closely monitoring my performance.

Most of my betting now is in-play but for the learning process, I found it best in slow moving, not too liquid, long term markets like specials and politics and league winners or top scorers etc. The goal was to go "all-green" to free up the funds to bet again.

GL.

"Those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk."

Generally that's correct, the only problem is that generalizations are flawed as they always fail to take into account the exceptions.

I've learnt a lot over the years from those in the know who are prepared to talk as long as they are treated civilly.
It's the clowns protected by internet anonymity that ruin it all and make learned people retreat.

I think half the battle to being successful is being able to make informed decisions based on the value of the information being conveyed.

I'll add my own generalization that isn't flawed.
Those who don't know, sell e-books.
You can take that one to the bank.

Thank you Math Man, that almost brought a tear to my eye.

The reason that I am more than happy to share something that I think will help people is three fold:

1) I hate to see someone posting here in a distressed/upset state or talking in a manner which would indicate that they are. I can say that I know exactly what this feels like.

2) Because of this I genuinely want to help them.

3) By helping people it also helps me. Everytime I think about the mental approach to winning it helps straighten ideas out in my own head. As I type on here I have to be clear in my own mind if I'm going to convey that information to others.

Yes b/f is something where people are in competition with each other and it is all about opinions etc etc etc. The issue for me is that if it looks like somebody is about to hit the self destruct button I'd rather try to help them not do it. There are more than enough people out these who's bets I can match. I don't want to take money off someone who is going to have to face their wife/girlfriend and explain everything.

thats very good Karma

good post ,Dave

thanks lads

BTO AND DAVE
good helpful posts for a change

For Barry
First do not chase, forget what you have lost it can take 20 years for some to start making the game pay. Create your own prices and look for other peoples mistakes. You will still get it wrong but do not try other bets. Yesterdays football i saw spurs value at 5-1 but no less i was wrong, but i also saw Fulham value 10-3 i was right. Create a market on Birmingham Man City and bet to small stakes until your confidence returns, that is if you have a betting bank.

Beat The OverRound 01 Nov 05:18

Others offer eachway only, so you have to adapt, there has to be enough of a place arb to offset the win non arb component.
An excel spreadsheet is your friend.

Whilst I accept that this is possible and if someone was that inclined, you could profit from this approach. However, where I differ from you is that you were offering incredulty that the arb wasnt taken (apparently for as long as an hour) while I would be more pragmatic in my thinking before "gloating" shall we say? Plus, as you appear to be based in Australia, time zone differences would go at least some way to explain to situation you explained.

Dont get me wrong, you're very correct in saying & implying that opportunities lie everywhere and that often, simply a lack of effort from the individual is the reason why they arent taken advantage of (and some cases, where they're even aware of it too) not to mention, the unwillingness to adapt, learn and develop as the landscape changes (premium charge introduction etc). But there comes a point where that level of scorn shown to the market particpants overall is a lot less justified. For example, should I be teasing and almost mocking of others for not backing at 99.9% shot at 50.0 that existed in a baseball game about a month ago?

A UK punter has to use oddschecker or work out the place offering either manually or via spreadsheet, but I have a Betfair account in AUD and bookies accounts in GBP.
So not only do I have to work out the place dividends and arbs, I have to convert the currencies.

I dont understand why you havent put your account in pounds.
My account comes under the aussie domain yet the account is in pounds

thanks again guys - some positive and warming comments - still mulling over what to do after a week has gone by.

I will certainly consider lowering my stakes because I can cope with a £50 loss in a day but it's the £300 - £400 losses that have me reeling.

I also need to be more adventurous with my selections - instead of picking 'dead cert's (which don't win i.e. yesterday I MAYBE would have backed Barca, Bayern Munich, Liverpool to name a few and would have ignored Stoke (ok they drew but could have layed off i/r), Burnley etc.

Will be betting before the new year as I' trying to put October behind me, but with a sensible approach of winning £5 - £10 with very little risk.

Still struggling to understand why I'd need to study form for hours and hours - yesterday I looked at Arsenal and thought they would be Spurs after Redcraps comments and Spurs without Defoe/Woodgate/Lennon. What I mean is I could have spent hours justifying Sunderland to bt WHU and they go 0-2 down - where is the logic - all that planninng gone to waste.

maybe an idea to pick three random in play games from the coupon, and spend all your available study time, going through form, stats, trends, team news etc and look for angles in all available markets relevant to each match

It's all about getting your prices right.

Still struggling to understand why I'd need to study form for hours and hours - yesterday I looked at Arsenal and thought they would be Spurs after Redcraps comments and Spurs without Defoe/Woodgate/Lennon. What I mean is I could have spent hours justifying Sunderland to bt WHU and they go 0-2 down - where is the logic - all that planninng gone to waste.



that's an isolated example though. No amount of studying will provide 100% correct selections.
in the long run, thorough research will prevail because, while form in football is even more capricious that racing, it will educate you as to what kind of things work best for you and what kind of things you should be studying and looking out for.
Studying informs the study.

agreed..thats like saying i studied the 3.40 at ascot for ages, and the favourite got beat..it happens

How long does it take to study a football match, and what facts are relevent ?

Good point Maurice. very well made.

Kenilworth, the key as to whay is valid is up to the individual. What one person considers important may not be so to another. For some league standings, others current form, then there are other things too. It really is a case of each to their own for me. Personally I love looking at football matches in ways that I think others are not (this isn't always possible of course), if I think I have seen something that others haven't and I perceive that I have an edge I'm happy to get involved.

In my humble opinion there are too many variables involved in football and horseracing. If your confidence is shot, then you are facing a hard task. I would personally look at betting where there are only 2 possible outcomes. you can still find value in these types of bets, eg. tennis, golf, darts, snooker etc... by having a bit of patience and doing some research, you may be able to get on a winning run and build back your confidence.

Why not leave it for the month buy some good studying material work on football matches from Weds onwards.

JPG,

I'm sorry if my post came across as gloating, that wasn't the intention, it was pure disbelief.
Two hours before a race is two hours wherever you are, and the point I was making has been missed I believe.
Had I put those arbs in the win market, it would have been literally seconds before someone hoovered my money.
Without spelling it out, the point I was making was that if decent arbs were sitting in the place market, then surely this goes undetected by those who couldn't be bothered or don't know.
The next step to that thinking is that there must be plenty of arbs (worthwhile arbs) everyday for anyone prepared to put in some work.
The title of the thread "I cannot see a way to make money".
But I think his problems might be bigger than that, however, I believe the title would apply to the majority of Betfair users.

Comments had been made that anybody who knows doesn't tell, I told and nobody used it. That's fair enough, but if I was scorning or mocking anything, it certainly wasn't punters who are battling, it was the generalization that those that know don't tell.

I would never mock or scorn anyone who was honestly battling, I was there in that dark place, and would have jumped at any information that could help.

I have almost negated the premium charge issue by only choosing races where multiple arbs are available, and having a lot of "other" bets that end up breakeven (or close to) after commission.

lippy, the only reason is that I was advised I'd have to close my account and reopen another one, and I don't want to go through all that for a variety of reasons. Not the least of which is my account statements are missing information, if I close the account it will be lost forever. (apparently)

DaveEdwards, the point I am making is that there is only so much that is relevent in studying a football match, and it only takes so long. In the main, unless we are an avid supporter of a particular side, we can only look at current form and the (most importantly) betting. This evening Sheffield Un play Newcastle Un at Sheffield. What are the things that matter, and how long does it take to decipher them ? It doesn't take long whatever is looked at IMO.

Mate. Knock it on the head for 6 months.

If you have to keep going, stick to smaller stakes. Forget about the losses or you'll always be chasing them. Start from scratch.

Fair enough, all I was saying was that maybe there might be other things that a different type of analysis would look at, apart from the usual style of analysis. They might also take longer to consider. Sometimes I might look at a match without being able to form an immediate view, then go away or maybe even sleep on it before deciding.

I think I banging on about nothing in particular here! Basically all I was saying was different strokes & all that.

about the "those who know and so on...."
and about the "if u have a winning system u dont sell it..."

I agree 80%

the other 20% is this:

There are some persons (including me) who give sensible advice to newbies, I even run a blog in which I get 500 visits a day, I expose the good and the ugly things to the best of my knowledge.
I show my trades, but dont tell exactly how I do everyone of them.
And there a some ppl in here who are worth a read.

If someone had a system that gives him an edge, lets say secure 1 or 2 ticks or something like that, u name it, whatever, even a slight edge... what if selling that system will provide you with extra cash without ruining the system itself?

I know these are exceptions, 99% are scammers.
Im just saying that not ALL people are con men.

Anyone gets my point?

Trader11 - What's the link to your blog mate?

check my thread here on general betting BLOG ON TRADING, dont want to hijack this fred.

Traders, cheers found it

subscribe to sports stat...its inly 60 quid a year it gives you all the stats on europes top leagues...plus the prem!...i bet mostly on backing under 3.5 or 4.5 goals and laying 9 or less corners......with research you can get your strike rate very high at half decent odds(especially with corners)...i back using 5% of my bank with i increase every month i make profit.....also i try and pick just one nailed on horse to place a day also using 5% i can usually go for 10-15 days with out a loser....on top of that i have seperate bank which i use to rollover the daily picks...that i use to give my self a little income of around 200 a week....been doing this for a while now...i know its what everyone says on here but its disapline and patience which is so important....be happy with 40-50 quid a day to begin with and as your bank grows so will your daily profit..but only if you can keep your self from doing stupid bets!

Almost risk free betting on a Saturday.
Bet £3.65 do the Channel Four 4/1 offer on the TV racers.
So you:-
1) Back a horse over 4/1 with £3.65 and lay off on Betfair.
2) If horse losers go to next race and do the same.
3) If horse wins you have a free bet on the next race. Back a horse over 4/1 and lay off on Betfair.
4) I f horse wins repeat step 3.
5) When horse losers you win.

14 days have passed since I posted my tale of woe and I've been doing some paper bets and small stakes and here is a summary.

Have recouped approx £250 in the 2 weeks.
Mainly by either laying correct scores or by backing players/teams where I would normally be influenced by name or by a short price and have been going against this - whether you'd call this luck or me finally recognising value I don't know.

I've won someting like 18 out of 25 bets (approx) and feel a little better about things. Part of me wished I'd have risked more as the figure could have been £500 profit but I must be thankful for what I've made so far and taking it slowly is the way forward for me at this time.

I realise one bad day could make a set me back but I feel happier than 2 weeks ago.

Some examples of my bets are
Backed Cardiff v Forest last Sunday - layed off b4 the equaliser
Backed Tsonga @ 3.4 v Youzhny the other day and layed off after 1 set - he went on to retire so bet would have lost
Backed Martinez 2.6 yesterday when a set down - she won
Backed Stepanek 2.52 today v Cilic when a set down - he won
Layed 3-0 in the arsenal game the other night as they are scoring for fun.
Layed 1-2 in the Man Utd game the other night as they were bound to score after Fergies HT hairdryer.

I don't know what I can summarise from my betting activity - don't believe I've changed things so maybe I'm heading for disaster down the road or maybe I'm just more sensible with my money I'm risking instead of thinking "Cilic is 1.56 and a set up (but down a break) he's bound to win", down goes £100 - this was my approach in the past.

It's also only 2 weeks and I need to prove myself over a longer period but it' nice to know that I've had 14 days in a row making money for a change.

Baz, I know you are still worried about having another wobbler. Go over what I said about the mental aspect again. If you can master yourself, the rest is a walk in the park in comparision. Stay cool.

When you record your bets, record how you feel about the result win or lose and how you feel about the next bet. Start with your next bet and do it forever. When you record this you can look back and identify your flash points and not repeat them.

I've won someting like 18 out of 25 bets

You care too much about individual bets. I don't care if i only win 1 in 50 if it's 100/1

original poster has low level of intelligence imo

GET OUT AND STAY OUT,THATS ONE OF THE BEST PIECES OF ADVICE YOU WILL EVER LEARN IN YOUR LIFE

PS DONT LOOK BACK AND MOVE FORWARD

mythical prince Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 1411 31 Aug 10 05:18 
original poster has low level of intelligence imo

How would you rate the level of intelligence in your own comment, Mythical?

Lori Joined: 20 Apr 04
Replies: 22238 06 Nov 09 19:12   


I've won someting like 18 out of 25 bets

You care too much about individual bets. I don't care if i only win 1 in 50 if it's 100/1


^spot on. found this thread quite interesting... as all the "great" advice given out to this guy fails to hit on the most salient point... that human emotion will always let you down... will overwhelm any attempt to "discipline" yourself. basically the guy should just quit.


I think i might join him, mugs game [smiley:crazy]

I don't believe my comment needs to be pretty intelligent. It needs to be something he understands. For example he's complaining about being 1.6k down, yet he's betting 400/500 a time? What on earth is strange about being 1600 down if you are betting that big? I actually think the guy is on the wind-up. Surely nobody could be this stupid.

interesting thread.

This thread is originally from almost a year ago and, to be fair, i haven't seen the original poster since so i guess he cut his losses and got out.