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One Barry Robson
24 Oct 09 22:06
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Date Joined: 19 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 861 | Blogger: One Barry Robson's blog
Have lost 1.6k since the start of October and when you consider my biggest return in a day is £300 you understand what kind of a mess I'm in.

So far this month I've bet

£500 on Man Utd to bt Sunderland (it was Utd's only league game this season where they haven't been in a winning position) so no chance to get out - £200 loss

£500 on Wade to bt Priestley - £500 loss

layed Forest v Newcastle last Saturday then layed 1-0 @ HT - £300 loss

layed 2-2 in Inter game in the week at 65 mins makr (it was the only champs league match with no further goals) - £250 loss

backed Spurs v Stoke - £200 loss

backed Seville to beat Espanyol - £150 loss

There have been other losses £300 yesterday on Aussie footy and £284 loss on Jankovic tennis match

Cannot believe my luck and everyday I'm scared to bet in case I lose - lost all confidenceand felt physically sick in the week due to bad luck and loss of money.

just want the year to end so start afresh but I know it will end up the same lost 1.5k in 2008 and now even worse this year when I was in a small profit (don't ask me how) going into October.

Really do not know what to do

I do not get much enjoyment from watching any old match and like the thrill of winning but I cannot say it happens enough for me to continue.

I need to find a SMALL risk (and therefore I guess not big winnings method) of keeping some interest in a match.

What do people suggest?

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Replies: 218
By:
Schalke 04
When: 24 Oct 09 22:09
why don't you try why I am doing .... less risk, it's fun and you can buy money, but have you got the patience for it ??
By:
Lori
When: 24 Oct 09 22:11
Cannot believe my luck and everyday I'm scared to bet in case I lose

This sounds like a good thing.

If you're losing more than you're comfortable with, bet smaller. If the thought of betting smaller makes you feel a little angry or insulted, it's possible you have a problem.

Winning bets tend to be found through hard work, pick fewer matches and work on them much harder. Lower your stakes and see how you get on. Gambling shouldn't make you feel sick.
By:
buzzer
When: 24 Oct 09 22:11
I'd knock it on the head Barry, if you're losing money and it's making you unhappy it's time to do something else.
By:
Wanchai Lad
When: 24 Oct 09 22:11
bet phil taylor, collect
bet phil taylor, collect
repeat
repeat
repeat
By:
delz
When: 24 Oct 09 22:11
Pre-match trading. Watch, learn, do.
By:
One Barry Robson
When: 24 Oct 09 22:13
Schalke 04 24 Oct 23:09


why don't you try why I am doing .... less risk, it's fun and you can buy money, but have you got the patience for it ??

-----------------------------------------------------

what are you doing??

I'll settle for a guaranteed £10 per day for a year - gotta be better than losing 1.6k
By:
One Barry Robson
When: 24 Oct 09 22:14
buzzer 24 Oct 23:11


I'd knock it on the head Barry, if you're losing money and it's making you unhappy it's time to do something else.

----------------------------------

I stopped for about a month and then got slowly back into it.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 24 Oct 09 22:16
Nothing to do with "luck" ......you are not taking into account what teams/players have been doing either BEFORE a match ( mid-week games) or what games lined up, either for teams or their players at international level ......so all the football bets , other than SPURS game, appear to be poor judgement on your part ....not down to luck!

Players are not machines.......

You need to take note of posters like Lori etc......
By:
Schalke 04
When: 24 Oct 09 22:22
just backing short odds, doesn't suit everyone but it suits me ....

why don't you just buy a 1.01 everyday then for £10 profit ....
By:
rossoneri92
When: 24 Oct 09 22:22
ur betting too much at a time if you scale it down more to take into account bad runs

also try find a way of picking players teams etc as if you randomly go through things there is a chance of huge losing streaks

but best of luck and make sure you learn lessons from ur defeats
By:
Hopeless bettor
When: 24 Oct 09 22:22
Nope your an addict. Leave now.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 24 Oct 09 22:30
Read up on KELLY staking ....as you should try to become more aware of value in odds.......if you fancy one team will win....are odds value?

If you don't know, then you need to get your skill level up to get good at knowing!!!!!

From the games posted you are assuming the big teams will win.........but they don't always , especially when players return from international duty.....etc etc The odds chosen probably were not value....and you over staked I suspect.......only you know that.

Reading and using KELLY calculator may well help your betting get better.......REDUCING to SMALL BANK and improving your ability to bet to value ONLY..........and the KC can possibly help you at this stage in betting....otherwise STOPPING seems the next move.

Here is a link for KC

will post it shortly
By:
One Barry Robson
When: 24 Oct 09 22:32
Saw Spurs today and they stood out as an easy winnings especially with their reserve goalie playing - can't see what is wrong with that bet.

They hit the post and had one cleared off the line - they looked worse after the subs and then played with 10 when Lennon went off- couldn't believe that.

I see Shalke thread now £600 from backing 1.01 etc's - you have to admit that is good going or is it just dodging bullets?
By:
Coachbuster
When: 24 Oct 09 22:32
Reduce those stakes man :0

I'm surprised youre not already living in a cardboard box

listen to Lori
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 24 Oct 09 22:33
http://seriousbet.com/calculators/kelly_staking
By:
curlywurly
When: 24 Oct 09 22:33
You have to forget about this 1.6k otherwise it's going to affect every bet you do.
Really cut the stakes down and look at other markets and sports you might not normally do.
A series of cheap lays on teams or players that start fast would be my starting point.
Good Luck
By:
rossoneri92
When: 24 Oct 09 22:34
thats all it is youd be surprised how often they lose
By:
d13phe
When: 24 Oct 09 22:35
why are people obsessed with Big outlay (big risk) small return method

its a sure fire way to lose money
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 24 Oct 09 22:39
Many of SPURS team were involved in international matches recently ....and they probably were reacting to playing at that level, travelling etc ......it does effect players performances....as said before ...they are not machines.

When you say they are "easy" money earner for you.........the words you use indicate you are making assumptions that don't stand up when it comes down to football matches.

OVER STAKING is one of my flaws.........all it needs is 1 bad over staking bout to ruin 9 good bets in a row........hope you improve as otherwise you will lose any money left.
By:
d13phe
When: 24 Oct 09 22:41
to put it another way

spread your risk

if you think you have what it takes to make it (many don't) then dont do the same type of bet over and over again.

have a basket of different bets on different markets

some high risk high return, some low risk low return and some in between

and remember sport is random with lots of variables.

you need to be able to take the rough with the smooth, which is where spreading your risk comes in.
By:
McChicken_Sandwich
When: 24 Oct 09 22:43
£500 is far too much for a clueless casual punter to bet. :|
By:
One Barry Robson
When: 24 Oct 09 22:48
Whilst Shalkes £600 is impressive it's again risking alot for very little (you could argue it is very low risk odds though).

I just think that maybe gambling and certainly the way I do it is never going to work.

I lost £1000 on Barca earlier in the year when they lost at home to Espanyol and tonight it's Espanyol that have cost me again.

I think this is fate and a way of telling me enough is enough as I'm roughly where I was then in terms of my minus figure.
With luck (and I beleive it was luck) I have recouped that loss only to lose it again and more.

I have no staking plan - it's just a case of looking at who is playing who, team news, sometimes results, form etc and then lumping on.

This method has proves 'lucky' for me at times but this month has been sickening.

I'm not going to say I'm signing off forever as it's interesting to read and comment sometimes - this does not mean I'll be betting.

It would be nice to have a beer, watch a game and have a cheaky £5 on some bet or other, but even then I feel I may be tempted back into bad habits and losses.

Unless I can find a low risk way of keeping an interest in a game for 90 minutes (like both teams to score or team a to score in both halves etc) then I'm done.

Thanks for your advice/help and I wish you well
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 24 Oct 09 22:50
15 Aug 09 Stoke City 2 - 0 Burnley
19 Aug 09 Liverpool 4 - 0 Stoke City
22 Aug 09 Birmingham City 0 - 0 Stoke City
29 Aug 09 Stoke City 1 - 0 Sunderland
12 Sep 09 Stoke City 1 - 2 Chelsea
19 Sep 09 Bolton 1 - 1 Stoke City
26 Sep 09 Stoke City 0 - 2 Manchester Utd
4 Oct 09 Everton 1 - 1 Stoke City
17 Oct 09 Stoke City 2 - 1 West Ham Utd
24 Oct 09 Tottenham 0 - 1 Stoke City

From above results it is clear that STOKE are no "easy" losers.....they gave CHELSEA a close game ...beat BURNLEY early in season , some top clubs lost to BuRNLEY etc, ...they drew with EVERTON away ....they are no push-overs!

It is your judgement that is poor when you use word "easy" .....................no such thing ....only being aware of vale bets.

I think it was 22-1 odds for 0-1 today before match......and compared to 1-0 SPURS odds.......there was a better value bet on STOKE 0-1 for SMALL STAKES than lumping on the "easy" bet on SPURS at short odds.
By:
Lori
When: 24 Oct 09 22:50
certainly the way I do it is never going to work.

From your post I'd agree with this. Leaving the game alone is a wise move.

All the best.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 24 Oct 09 22:53
This method has proves 'lucky' for me at times but this month has been sickening.


The reason being for your poor judgment this month is you are failing to recognise INTERNATIONAL matches....CHAMPIONS L matches COPA SUDAM etc etc all happened this month...........................

It is not down to "luck" ........................................your bad results.....
By:
McChicken_Sandwich
When: 24 Oct 09 22:54
Random feeling bets + overstaking = **ed imo
By:
no moves
When: 24 Oct 09 23:03
Have you tries quantative easing, thats where you print your own money well it seems to work for the government.
By:
JPG
When: 24 Oct 09 23:09
One Barry Robson,

Your probably making the following 3 mistakes:

1) Overstaking
2) Chasing
3) Not knowing beforehand your motivation for having a bet (enjoyment or profit?)

They're all inter-linked but the first thing you need to do is figure out what you intend to get out of your betting. If its merely to "spice up" an event you're watching (sometimes called 'Entertainment betting') then no worries, this is fine, as long as you can afford to lose what you bet with.

However, if you are genuinely trying to get a long term profit (even if it means you have less entertainment derived from it) then thats fine too but you need to be honest with yourself in advance. Once you have that sorted in your head, it becomes easier to move on/help yourself out.

The "bad luck" syndrome is purely fantasy mate, those things happen all the time. In fact, they are inevitable given enough time. That isnt the problem though as those things can be countered by things within your control (ie how much you stake etc.) First impression is that you are "disrespecting" the risks you are taking which in turn is leading to the overstaking. Im not sure if this is because you need larger stakes then what you "should" be betting to derive the entertainment you seek or you are being blinded by potential quick easy gains.

Dont start getting your head in knots over analyising missed penalties, dodgy keepers etc, the reason for your mess is yourself, the good news is, you can do something about it.
By:
viva el presidente!
When: 24 Oct 09 23:12
good post, jpg.
By:
One Barry Robson
When: 24 Oct 09 23:32
agreed good post JPG

i think the three you mention I am guilty of - don't tell me people on here haven't chased because we all have haven't we?

I guess it's a mixture of both I like making money 9like the next bloke), but merely see it as a bit of fun - £1.5k is about what I can afford to risk/lose each year and unfortunately I HAVE lost that amount each year.

As mentioned I'd be happy enough making £10 per day but don't want to risk any more than £100 per day in doing so.

If I can do this whilst taking a match/game in then all well and good - I realise I cannot guarantee to win £10 each day but I just need to find a way to go about doing this - but ultimately I need a break I feel - it would be only too easy to get involved in the next offering as there is so many matches to chose from you can bet 24-7 and this is also a problem as I do shift work this is possible and this means I'm getting involved in matches/leagues I 'm not familar with. I will just lay the bigger odds or back the short odds and it doesn't always work out this way.
By:
JPG
When: 24 Oct 09 23:43
One Barry Robson,

By all means have a break, wont do you any harm.

However, going forward, it will be immensely helpful if you can fully ascertain your primary motivation for your betting. This is a little tricky for some to get their heads around but after some thought, most people get it.

Are you motivated by the need to be entertained or are you motivated to make a long term profit?

Of course its possible to do both (ironically it sounds like you are currently doing neither). People can enjoy making a profit, people can make a profit out of their entertainment, theres no reason why its got to be all one thing or all the other. But knuckling down within your own mind the primary reason why you're betting in the first place, its easier to sort.

For example, if some gave you one of the following two guranteed options what would you choose:

1) A method for betting that will be 95% likely to yield you a £1000 profit over an entire a year but will be boring as hell to implement

2) Some exotic, diverse bets that will be 95% likely to lose you £1000 over the course of a year but will keep you entertained and gripped all the time?

In reality, it doesnt need to be either but one of them will "call out" to you more then the other.
By:
leaner
When: 24 Oct 09 23:50
i think last season should have been a lesson for everyone as with the likes of fulham and wigan defending well away and picking up 0-0's a lot of short prices got beat. stoke are strong physically but spurs are not, and so long as a team has a way out, any game could turn out any way
By:
farraflash
When: 24 Oct 09 23:52
Just stop betting mate you're hopeless.
By:
Moon Light
When: 24 Oct 09 23:57
If you just want a bet on a game you are watching, why not cut back your BF balance to a level you are comfortable with.
There are facilities for loss limits provided under My Account. If you impose a limit, you can't increase it for 7 days.
This might be easier to stick with than not having a bet at all, which it sounds as if you have tried.
By:
One Barry Robson
When: 25 Oct 09 00:01
JPG

Well it would have to be 1 as number means I'm losing more money and this is something I wish to avoid.

I'm off to bed now - and it will be on my mind as I drift to sleep and on my mind when i wake up - thinking of ways to now claw back even more money than it was this time yesterday - however this does not mean I'll be chasing or having a bet but just thinking about how low I've reached makes me depressed.

The only light is that on Jan 1st I can start a fresh slate and HOPEFULLY can not make the same mistakes but I'm not convinced as I have this conversation with myself everytime this happens.

Strange I was doing so well with only £400 losses per day cropping up every 2 months or so but this month -£600, -£378, -£255, -£233 & - £466 all in the last 3 weeks.
By:
Moon Light
When: 25 Oct 09 00:03
Your thinking is incorrect. You can NEVER get back money you have lost. It is GONE.
You may win in the future, but you never reverse past defeats.
You should self-exclude if you are thinking these erroneous thoughts.
By:
delz
When: 25 Oct 09 00:10
Moon Light is f ucking spot on.
By:
tim86
When: 25 Oct 09 00:11
have you ever tried greening up on your bets? i gain confidence from greening up for small profits
By:
viva el presidente!
When: 25 Oct 09 00:14
I would seriously think about stopping gambling completely, at least for a month or two. it's making you unhappy, it's costing you money and it's costing you time.

take a complete break, and see how you feel after that.

gl, whatever you decide to do.
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