|
By:
Day by day betting is a waste of money.Think longterm.Get stuck into the outright Premiership market.You know its between Man U and Chelsea,maybe Arsenal.You can adjust your position every week.
|
|
By:
have a go laying horses 20/1 to 50/1 and stop after 4 or 5
|
|
By:
This man should self-exclude, he is an addicted gambler, not a newbie in need of a system.
|
|
By:
agree, self exclusion might be a good idea.
|
|
By:
It's true, I've proven it.
I deliberately left some arb opportunites hanging for ages, nobody came to collect. So it's true, write a winning method on the footpath outside Royal Ascot, and plenty will see it, but not one person will be using it a month later. :p |
|
By:
Either that or use loss-limits, as I suggested earlier.
Above all, he needs to lose the idea of getting his money back. Past losses and future bets are independent events. |
|
By:
BTO
dont think many people understood wot u was on about me old son |
|
By:
BTO,
Youve deliberately left arb opportunities on the Prem Winner market? If so, I take it you mean offer a price to lay thats shorter then wildly available elsewhere? |
|
By:
I agree bto in a big way.
Let's not forget, when trying to make money people don't have to worry themselves about the mega traders operating out of their ivory towers. I couldn't care less about them. In fact I love these traders as they add to the liquidity of the markets. All you have to concern yourself is being better informed than the average user (and controlling yourself and your staking). Difficult to be better informed than the average users? Go to the football forum and look at the average posting on there. You could carve a winning forumla on the steps leading into the Jockey Club. Even a proven winner, how many people would mess it up? |
|
By:
"The Betfairy 30 Oct 12:07
Surely the secrets are in a £47 ebook?" Classic ! B-) :) |
|
By:
No, I left lay opportunities on the place markets that could have been arbed against the bookies easily, and they hung there like smelly socks for over an hour.
Granted, some people may not have been around, but consider that if I'd done the same thing on the win market, i'd have been matched within seconds. A UK punter has to use oddschecker or work out the place offering either manually or via spreadsheet, but I have a Betfair account in AUD and bookies accounts in GBP. So not only do I have to work out the place dividends and arbs, I have to convert the currencies. All I can say is it's worth the extra effort, and judging by yesterday's experiment, I'll have sufficient opportunites for quite some time. Perhaps not now though ;) |
|
By:
BTO,
I dont bet on horses but how do punters arb place markets as fixed odds firms dont offer (or rarely) offer place betting only. |
|
By:
Paddy Power does.
|
|
By:
Others offer eachway only, so you have to adapt, there has to be enough of a place arb to offset the win non arb component.
An excel spreadsheet is your friend. |
|
By:
Hats off to BTO, a very magnanomous gesture sharing that information.
Arbing isn't my style, but I do appreciate your openness. Well done. |
|
By:
I was reading though this thread last night.......some decent forumites on here offering some good advice and insight.......nice one lads.
|
|
By:
"Your best hope is to have a method that allows you to analyse data in a methodical way an make an informed decision." - DaveEdwards
DEAD RIGHT! Just to qualify my last posting, I am referring to the prediction of the outcome of a sporting event. As for trading, there may or may not be systems that people use and to be honest I haven't got a clue! - DaveEdwards RIGHT AGAIN. It's safer to bet on the probability of a 'swing' than on the actual outcome. "Those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk." VERY TRUE, BUT... "If you do know something that might help Barry, why don't you do the decent thing and tell him?" - DaveEdwards WELL SAID. People like Barry need and deserve to be helped. (See my comment 25 Oct) |
|
By:
Just a thought Barry.
My way to crack my discipline problem and simultaneously learn my strategies for consistent profits on here was to just bet £2 a go, with the goal of locking in 10% on every bet. Cost me £20-40 a month as a hobby/habit for about 6 months and then I started turning a profit. The thrill was not in winning pennies but percentages on my stake. I'd get more of a buzz from winning 20% on a £2 stake than 2% on a £20 stake. I do no analysis at all. It's all about the numbers on here and closely monitoring my performance. Most of my betting now is in-play but for the learning process, I found it best in slow moving, not too liquid, long term markets like specials and politics and league winners or top scorers etc. The goal was to go "all-green" to free up the funds to bet again. GL. |
|
By:
"Those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk."
Generally that's correct, the only problem is that generalizations are flawed as they always fail to take into account the exceptions. I've learnt a lot over the years from those in the know who are prepared to talk as long as they are treated civilly. It's the clowns protected by internet anonymity that ruin it all and make learned people retreat. I think half the battle to being successful is being able to make informed decisions based on the value of the information being conveyed. |
|
By:
I'll add my own generalization that isn't flawed.
Those who don't know, sell e-books. You can take that one to the bank. |
|
By:
Thank you Math Man, that almost brought a tear to my eye.
The reason that I am more than happy to share something that I think will help people is three fold: 1) I hate to see someone posting here in a distressed/upset state or talking in a manner which would indicate that they are. I can say that I know exactly what this feels like. 2) Because of this I genuinely want to help them. 3) By helping people it also helps me. Everytime I think about the mental approach to winning it helps straighten ideas out in my own head. As I type on here I have to be clear in my own mind if I'm going to convey that information to others. Yes b/f is something where people are in competition with each other and it is all about opinions etc etc etc. The issue for me is that if it looks like somebody is about to hit the self destruct button I'd rather try to help them not do it. There are more than enough people out these who's bets I can match. I don't want to take money off someone who is going to have to face their wife/girlfriend and explain everything. |
|
By:
thats very good Karma
|
|
By:
good post ,Dave
|
|
By:
thanks lads
|
|
By:
BTO AND DAVE
good helpful posts for a change |
|
By:
For Barry
First do not chase, forget what you have lost it can take 20 years for some to start making the game pay. Create your own prices and look for other peoples mistakes. You will still get it wrong but do not try other bets. Yesterdays football i saw spurs value at 5-1 but no less i was wrong, but i also saw Fulham value 10-3 i was right. Create a market on Birmingham Man City and bet to small stakes until your confidence returns, that is if you have a betting bank. |
|
By:
Beat The OverRound 01 Nov 05:18
Others offer eachway only, so you have to adapt, there has to be enough of a place arb to offset the win non arb component. An excel spreadsheet is your friend. Whilst I accept that this is possible and if someone was that inclined, you could profit from this approach. However, where I differ from you is that you were offering incredulty that the arb wasnt taken (apparently for as long as an hour) while I would be more pragmatic in my thinking before "gloating" shall we say? Plus, as you appear to be based in Australia, time zone differences would go at least some way to explain to situation you explained. Dont get me wrong, you're very correct in saying & implying that opportunities lie everywhere and that often, simply a lack of effort from the individual is the reason why they arent taken advantage of (and some cases, where they're even aware of it too) not to mention, the unwillingness to adapt, learn and develop as the landscape changes (premium charge introduction etc). But there comes a point where that level of scorn shown to the market particpants overall is a lot less justified. For example, should I be teasing and almost mocking of others for not backing at 99.9% shot at 50.0 that existed in a baseball game about a month ago? |
|
By:
A UK punter has to use oddschecker or work out the place offering either manually or via spreadsheet, but I have a Betfair account in AUD and bookies accounts in GBP.
So not only do I have to work out the place dividends and arbs, I have to convert the currencies. I dont understand why you havent put your account in pounds. My account comes under the aussie domain yet the account is in pounds |
|
By:
thanks again guys - some positive and warming comments - still mulling over what to do after a week has gone by.
I will certainly consider lowering my stakes because I can cope with a £50 loss in a day but it's the £300 - £400 losses that have me reeling. I also need to be more adventurous with my selections - instead of picking 'dead cert's (which don't win i.e. yesterday I MAYBE would have backed Barca, Bayern Munich, Liverpool to name a few and would have ignored Stoke (ok they drew but could have layed off i/r), Burnley etc. Will be betting before the new year as I' trying to put October behind me, but with a sensible approach of winning £5 - £10 with very little risk. Still struggling to understand why I'd need to study form for hours and hours - yesterday I looked at Arsenal and thought they would be Spurs after Redcraps comments and Spurs without Defoe/Woodgate/Lennon. What I mean is I could have spent hours justifying Sunderland to bt WHU and they go 0-2 down - where is the logic - all that planninng gone to waste. |
|
By:
maybe an idea to pick three random in play games from the coupon, and spend all your available study time, going through form, stats, trends, team news etc and look for angles in all available markets relevant to each match
|
|
By:
It's all about getting your prices right.
|
|
By:
Still struggling to understand why I'd need to study form for hours and hours - yesterday I looked at Arsenal and thought they would be Spurs after Redcraps comments and Spurs without Defoe/Woodgate/Lennon. What I mean is I could have spent hours justifying Sunderland to bt WHU and they go 0-2 down - where is the logic - all that planninng gone to waste.
that's an isolated example though. No amount of studying will provide 100% correct selections. in the long run, thorough research will prevail because, while form in football is even more capricious that racing, it will educate you as to what kind of things work best for you and what kind of things you should be studying and looking out for. Studying informs the study. |
|
By:
agreed..thats like saying i studied the 3.40 at ascot for ages, and the favourite got beat..it happens
|
|
By:
How long does it take to study a football match, and what facts are relevent ?
|
|
By:
Good point Maurice. very well made.
Kenilworth, the key as to whay is valid is up to the individual. What one person considers important may not be so to another. For some league standings, others current form, then there are other things too. It really is a case of each to their own for me. Personally I love looking at football matches in ways that I think others are not (this isn't always possible of course), if I think I have seen something that others haven't and I perceive that I have an edge I'm happy to get involved. |
|
By:
In my humble opinion there are too many variables involved in football and horseracing. If your confidence is shot, then you are facing a hard task. I would personally look at betting where there are only 2 possible outcomes. you can still find value in these types of bets, eg. tennis, golf, darts, snooker etc... by having a bit of patience and doing some research, you may be able to get on a winning run and build back your confidence.
|
|
By:
Why not leave it for the month buy some good studying material work on football matches from Weds onwards.
|
|
By:
JPG,
I'm sorry if my post came across as gloating, that wasn't the intention, it was pure disbelief. Two hours before a race is two hours wherever you are, and the point I was making has been missed I believe. Had I put those arbs in the win market, it would have been literally seconds before someone hoovered my money. Without spelling it out, the point I was making was that if decent arbs were sitting in the place market, then surely this goes undetected by those who couldn't be bothered or don't know. The next step to that thinking is that there must be plenty of arbs (worthwhile arbs) everyday for anyone prepared to put in some work. The title of the thread "I cannot see a way to make money". But I think his problems might be bigger than that, however, I believe the title would apply to the majority of Betfair users. Comments had been made that anybody who knows doesn't tell, I told and nobody used it. That's fair enough, but if I was scorning or mocking anything, it certainly wasn't punters who are battling, it was the generalization that those that know don't tell. I would never mock or scorn anyone who was honestly battling, I was there in that dark place, and would have jumped at any information that could help. I have almost negated the premium charge issue by only choosing races where multiple arbs are available, and having a lot of "other" bets that end up breakeven (or close to) after commission. |
|
By:
lippy, the only reason is that I was advised I'd have to close my account and reopen another one, and I don't want to go through all that for a variety of reasons. Not the least of which is my account statements are missing information, if I close the account it will be lost forever. (apparently)
|
|
By:
DaveEdwards, the point I am making is that there is only so much that is relevent in studying a football match, and it only takes so long. In the main, unless we are an avid supporter of a particular side, we can only look at current form and the (most importantly) betting. This evening Sheffield Un play Newcastle Un at Sheffield. What are the things that matter, and how long does it take to decipher them ? It doesn't take long whatever is looked at IMO.
|