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brians
01 Jun 26 09:26
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Date Joined: 23 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 1,912 | Blogger: brians's blog
I like a pre tournament bet as you have an interest for a long time so your money lasts longer !
I notice Sky have England at 7/5 to concede more
Pause Switch to Standard View England - 6+in tournament.
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Report brians June 1, 2026 9:33 AM BST
Sorry I'll start again.
Sky have England to concede 6 or more goals in the tournament.  I like this for several reasons. Pickford is not my favourite goalie . The refereeing and Var are likely to give daft penalties as no one now knows the rules for handball or wrestling in the box. I don't fancy England to win much and thus expect a few goals against. However if they do well and progress it gives me more matches to concede the goals !
I personally think it's value. Just my opinion of course.
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 1, 2026 11:02 AM BST
2022 15 teams conceded 6 or more including Argentina France and Portugal
2018 14 teams conceded 6 or more including Argentina England Spain France Belgium and Portugal
2014 14 teams conceded 6 or more including Brazil Spain and Portugal
2010 8 teams conceded 6 or more including Argentina and Netherlands

England conceded 0 goals in qualifying

There's an extra round in this WC which means on average each team will concede an extra 0.8 goals roughly

Think you are prolly right and it's a bet.  Reffing and VAR good points to consider, but I think Pickford s a good goalie and my suspicion is Tuchel will prolly be pragmatic and a touch more negative than most teams
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 1, 2026 11:04 AM BST
NB. Stats not rigorously checked
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 1, 2026 11:05 AM BST
I think the biggest point to consider is there is an extra round of matches
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 1, 2026 11:07 AM BST
Because there will prolly be a fair few teams who conceded 5 goals in those 4 WCs, who would've conceded 6 or more with an extra round
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 1, 2026 12:44 PM BST
Good stuff Clyde.

One thing you can never guess is the 3-3 when early goal
arrives and both teams open up... Can scupper bets.
Report 1st time poster June 1, 2026 1:01 PM BST
what's the logic in these runner up,3rd place prices ?
if I,m reading it right England are
13 to 2 to win
8,s runner up
9,s to finish 3rd
so if you did 1 and 2 ,you,d be better of them losing the final
I,m obviously missing something obvious l got the crash helmet on ready Laugh
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 1, 2026 1:14 PM BST
Nice e/w odds!!
Report 1st time poster June 1, 2026 1:19 PM BST
that's what I was thinking i  don't get it
back all 3 and hope they don't lose 3rd and 4th place game,which at 13 to 2 ew wouldn't be much more than money back anyway,
if your not favs to win cup,surely it must be easier to finish 2nd than it is to finish 2nd
missing something obvious here Laugh
Report 1st time poster June 1, 2026 1:21 PM BST
France /Spain both  9 to 2 to win
both 7,s to finish runner up

come on guys what are we missing ?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 1, 2026 1:21 PM BST
£1 win
50p 2nd
50p 3rd

Seems fair enough e/w
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 1, 2026 1:23 PM BST
One of problems is getting them to try for 3rd place.

England 2.82 to get a semi, on hear.
Report impossible123 June 3, 2026 6:59 PM BST
Another period of disappointments from England. I think 2.92 to get to the semi is a stonking price for a layer.
Report DBLyourmoney June 4, 2026 7:48 AM BST
England head to the 2026 World Cup as one of the pre-tournament favorites, and midfielder Kobbie Mainoo believes that status is deserved.

“100%” the Manchester United star declared. “I feel like everyone in the squad, staff ... everyone believes we can win it. But that doesn’t come easy.

“It’s very special, something I’ve dreamed of, and I’m sure all the players have dreamed of since they were really young.

“So to be here and say that I’m playing in a World Cup is unbelievable. I’ve always wanted to play in a World Cup for all my life.

“It’s the biggest tournament in the world, so it’s definitely different from the Euros, but we will try and approach it in the same way with the goal that we want to win.”

But is Mainoo’s confident stance shared by the Opta supercomputer?

Supercomputer Predicts England’s World Cup Group Stage Odds

England will expect to make light work of the group stage. Group L appears to have been split in two halves, with two teams fighting for top spot and the other two scrapping to follow them through in third.

The biggest threat to England in the early stages is destined to come from perennial dark horses Croatia, although the supercomputer has little doubt about Thomas Tuchel’s side’s chances of topping the group.

England has a 67.76% likelihood of topping the group, with only two nations given higher odds of finishing top. Clearly, even dropping to second would be seen as a massive shock for the Three Lions.

Croatia has respectable odds of 19.73%, while Ghana (7.40%) and Panama (5.11%) will be well aware that the fight for automatic qualification is likely going to be a step too far for them.

Odds of Winning Group L / Odds of Advancing to Round of 32

England 67.76% / 95.91%

Croatia 19.73% / 76.66%

Ghana 7.40% / 50.09%

Panama 5.11% / 39.93%

Supercomputer Predicts England’s World Cup Knockout Stage Odds

England cannot afford to be overcome by complacency, but the reality is Tuchel’s side will already have one eye on the later stages of this competition.

Backed to win its group, England’s most likely opposition in the round of 32 will come from one of the third-placed teams from Groups E, H, I, J or K. Clearly, there are a number of different possibilities here but there are some big teams potentially waiting for England, including Uruguay, Ecuador, Norway and Colombia.

Regardless of who is on the agenda for England, the Three Lions once again boast the third-highest odds of advancing to the round of 16, sat at 68.57%.

That trend continues as the tournament progresses, with England also holding the third-highest odds of moving through to the quarterfinals at 47.20%. Host nation Mexico is among the possible opponents here, as is England’s famous rival, Scotland.

However, when it comes to advancing to the semifinals, England does actually drop down a place in the supercomputer’s rankings. Odds of 29.76% are still among the best on offer—Spain leads the way with 38.70% at this stage—but the chance of meeting a giant like Brazil could represent an obvious step-up in competition for Tuchel’s side.

It is Argentina that leapfrogs England in those rankings and, fascinatingly, the two nations could meet in the semifinals. In good news for the European outfit, England actually jumps back above the reigning Copa América champions, but only just. The supercomputer gives England odds of 18.52% of getting all the way to the final, marginally above Argentina’s 17.82%.

Spain or France would appear to be the most likely competition if England gets all the way to the final and, unfortunately for the Three Lions, it is those two sides that have sat higher in the rankings throughout the tournament to this point.

Given a 10.92% chance of winning, England are still seen as the third most-likely victor at this summer’s World Cup, but Spain (16.23%) and France (12.84%) are both out in front.

England’s Odds of Making it

Round of 16 68.57%

Quarterfinals 47.20%

Semifinals 29.76%

Final 18.52%

Winners 10.92%
Report jasstardust June 4, 2026 12:59 PM BST
ill-billies
evens for a tenner only
for messi to score in group games.
is that an easy tenner..???
Report stu June 4, 2026 1:39 PM BST
On the original tip, it's a tricky one, because I think England's strength will be more in defence than offence overall. Not necessarily that they have a great defence, just that they might play that way in tactics?

But, if they do have to open up in games (going behind etc) then yes it could be a good bet to concede 6 given potential amount of games they play now.
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