Champions league matchweek 8

You really need a computer to work out the permutations but there is a real chance for a punter to land a combination of related contingencies. I'm not sure that's the definition of a "Black swan event" but you know what I mean.

Here is betfair's very own preview

A decent write up.

https://betting.betfair.com/football/champions-league/champions-league-2026-permutations-ultimate-guide-to-every-game-in-matchday-8-250125-200.html

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PSG v NUFC

Paris SG are guaranteed at least a play-off place and because of their much better goal difference than six of the other seven teams  on 13 points a win over Newcastle will see them qualify for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. A draw will also see them finish in the top eight if at least four of Atalanta, Atletico Madrid, Man City, Sporting Lisbon, Barcelona, Chelsea and Tottenham either fail to win or lose (Tottenham).

Newcastle are guaranteed at least a play-off place and because of their much better goal difference than six of the other seven teams  on 13 points a win over Paris SG will see them qualify for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. A draw will also see them finish in the top eight if at least four of Atalanta, Atletico Madrid, Man City, Sporting Lisbon, Barcelona, Chelsea and Tottenham either fail to win or lose (Tottenham).

Verdict

Arguably the game of the night as, because of their goal difference in relation to the other six teams on 13 points, it's effectively a straight shoot out between Paris SG and Newcastle to guarantee a top eight finish. But keep an eye on other scorelines, it may become apparent with some time to play that results are going both clubs' way, and that a draw will see them both qualify for the Round of 16 automatically. It's one for the in-play punters that's for sure.

not sure why any supposed elite .epl teams are that fussed about getting a bye to last 16, 2 more games,2 lots of gate money,2 extra bites of tv money,their only in ch lg for the money the more games the more money coming in

It's 2nd prize for teams running on empty.

Lots of cash for making last 16,last 8 etc.

A win at psg would put Newcastle in last 16 with
a draw against a lower ranked team, 2nd leg at home,
and good chance of last 8.

Dont see us getting owt at psg, so may as well
give players a week off psg, Liverpool Saturday night...

Take the 2nd prize, and embrace it.

1 lot of gate money, you get at least an extra €10m guaranteed for finishing top 8, you risk not making last 16 if you don't. Elite teams do not want more games.

Newcastle are not elite but aspire to be.

Cash for last 8 would be another step up the ladder.

unless you get unlucky with draw and then lucky with draw if your not winning a last 16 game ,your not winning a last 8 game , is that guarenteed 10 million less anything you make on a last 16 game

Yeah, it's prize money, on top of gate money.

Each club will collect a fixed payment of €18.62 million for reaching the league phase. On top of that, teams will earn €2.1 million for every victory and €700,000 for a draw. The rewards rise significantly in the knockout rounds: clubs advancing to the round of 16 will receive €11 million, while those playing in the playoff tie before the round of 16 will pocket €1 million.

Reaching the quarterfinals will bring in another €12.5 million, while semifinalists will secure €15 million. The finalists at Budapest’s Puskás Aréna on May 30, 2026, will receive €18.5 million, with the winner earning an additional €6.5 million in prize money.

UEFA also introduced a ranking bonus system for the league phase, with an initial value of €275,000 per position. The lowest-ranked club will take home that amount, while the highest-ranked side could earn up to €9.9 million extra.

You get €1m for the KO round and another 10m for the R16. You are not guaranteed to get to R16 if you don't finish top 8.

The biggest jump in prize money per round is the 10m between KO round and R16. Nobody wants to finish 9-24 over top 8, you could get KO'd and miss out on that extra 10m and more. They don't want 2 extra games either with PL fixtures around them. Finishing 1 place lower in the PL costs about £3m and you might also miss out on CL next year with extra games to play.

But all of these payments are 1 of about 3 different payments you get in total. Arsenal are estimated to be guaranteed over €93m already by virtue of getting to R16 minimum, finishing top 2 minimum and a perfect group stage record (so far). Participation €18.6m, Value Pillar €37m, Performance (Points/Placement/KO bonus) €37.6m

#ManCity Starting XI vs Galatasaray: Donnarumma; Nunes, Khusanov, Ake, Ait-Nouri; O’Reilly, Bernardo (C), Cherki; Doku, Haaland, Marmoush

Erm, not official but from guy who normally gets it right

Bobb not there

Barcelona losing at home

Psg 1-0 up

League Stage
Ajax 0 , Olympiakos 0
Arsenal 2 , Kairat 2
Athletic Club 1 , Sporting CP 1
Atletico Madrid 1 , Bodø / Glimt 0
Barcelona 0 , Copenhagen 1
Bayer Leverkusen 1 , Villarreal 0
Benfica 0 , Real Madrid 0
Borussia Dortmund 0 , Inter Milan 0
Club Brugge 2 , Marseille 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 , Tottenham Hotspur 0
Liverpool 2 , Qarabağ 0
Manchester City 1 , Galatasaray 0
Monaco 0 , Juventus 0
Napoli 0 , Chelsea 1
PSV 0 , Bayern Munich 0
Pafos 1 , Slavia Prague 0
Paris Saint-Germain 1 , Newcastle United 0
Union Saint-Gilloise 0 , Atalanta 0

I thinking psg game fixed for psg not to win

No idea how barcelona can t bet a team like copenhagen

League Stage
Ajax 0 , Olympiakos 0
Arsenal 3 , Kairat 1
Athletic Club 2 , Sporting CP 1
Atletico Madrid 1 , Bodø / Glimt 0
Barcelona 0 , Copenhagen 1
Bayer Leverkusen 2 , Villarreal 0
Benfica 2 , Real Madrid 1
Borussia Dortmund 0 , Inter Milan 0
Club Brugge 2 , Marseille 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 , Tottenham Hotspur 0
Liverpool 2 , Qarabağ 0
Manchester City 2 , Galatasaray 0
Monaco 0 , Juventus 0
Napoli 2 , Chelsea 1
PSV 0 , Bayern Munich 0
Pafos 1 , Slavia Prague 1
Paris Saint-Germain 1 , Newcastle United 1 (willock)
Union Saint-Gilloise 0 , Atalanta 0

Half time

0-1 Tottingham. 4-0 Pool.

Atletico 1-2 Bodo Glint 2. These Norwegians are no joke.

Spurs dark horses for the CL.
In Frank we trust.

Its who we are

MATE!!!

Jan 28, 2026 -- 9:44PM, Wesdag wrote:

Spurs dark horses for the CL.In Frank we trust.

Yes, I'll take 17th and winning the CL.

Anyone in that top 8 could win it imo.

A bit of luck, avoiding in form teams etc always comes into play.

Last second goal for Benfica with a header to get them to qualify, insane !

A header from their goalie!

Mourinho running down the touchline again

Very tired today, thought I typed the keeper bit - missed the best bit out ! Incredible scenes there !

Could meet in play off round.

Funny old world


Marseille gutted

Kai Havertz is the first Arsenal player to score against an opponent whose first three letters are the same as the first three letters of his first name since Lee Dixon against Leeds in 1996

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You'll never sing that.

In the last three months, Spurs have won twice as many Champions League games (4) as Premier League ones (2).

With the league phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League now over, an estimate of prize money earned by English clubs so far:

• Liverpool €97m (£84m)
• Man City €97m (£84m)
• Arsenal €96m (£83m)
• Chelsea €92m (£80m)
• Spurs €85m (£73m)
• Newcastle €54m (£47m)