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Not necessarily a "must win", but absolutely a " must not lose" game.
Wouldn't mind watching this one Will be interesting to see how the result effects title mkts. |
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https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/dec/29/aston-villa-chelsea-winning-run-title-race-newsletter
"The last nine of those 11 wins in a row have been by a single goal. They’ve kept a clean sheet in only one of them. They’ve had the better xG in only six of those games and in two of those their xG was better by 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League games have been won after going behind. This shouldn’t be sustainable, but everybody’s been saying that for weeks and Villa keep on winning. The question is whether results will decline to match performances or whether performances could rise to match results. Coming from behind is not just a trait of this season. Over the past three seasons no side has won more points from losing positions than Villa’s 54; 18 of those have come this season, 50% more than the team second in that list, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored nine goals. Two things can perhaps be said of Villa under Unai Emery. Firstly, that they have a self-belief that means there is never a sense that a game is beyond them. That is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they believe they can come from behind. And secondly, that Emery is very adept at changing games from the bench. While Chelsea had the better of the xG 2.1-1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment just before the hour when Emery made a triple change. Watkins came on for Donyell Malen who, with limited service, had struggled to impose himself. Suddenly the ball was sticking, while Watkins’s movement behind the defensive line cause problems. Amadou Onana came on for Emi Buendía and Jadon Sancho came on for John McGinn. That both strengthened Villa’s centre by advancing Youri Tielemans, which in turn released Morgan Rogers, and gave them the width they had eschewed early on. Chelsea had 10 shots to none before that change; Villa had 11 chances to four afterwards. By the end, Villa were in control and could easily have won more comfortably. Not for the first time this season, Enzo Maresca was unable to react as a game started to slide away from him; the impression remains that he is better at putting together a tactical plan when he has time to prepare than when reacting on the hoof. Villa have also developed a happy habit of having players suddenly do something sensational to turn games. Rogers scored twice at Leeds and at West Ham and also got two at home against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his right foot and whipping a finish into the top corner has become a leitmotif for the season. It was Malen operating from the flank who turned the game after coming on at half-time at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contribution of Ezri Konsa and Victor Lindelöf on Saturday, particularly in the first half, should not be overlooked. At the moment, it’s never the whole tea playing brilliantly, but sufficient individuals within it to get them the wins. Can they keep going? They’re three points behind Arsenal and, on that logic, as the season approaches its halfway point they have to be considered part of the race, certainly more than the club world champions Chelsea or the defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday’s away game at Arsenal will be a major test of that. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a game in which Villa didn’t only have the better xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side had achieved against Arsenal in the league this season. Arsenal have put together their own run of single-goal victories since, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a test of both sides – and if Villa win a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to deny their title credentials." |
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Mmmmmmmmmm...........
I think, at 21/1, a small saver on the Villa is called for. If, IF, Villa beat arsenal, they go joint top of the table. With City having a game in hand, their next game being at Sunderland. So many ifs buts and maybes. Lol. |
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Love to see Villa win proper fans.
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Villa has 27,000 season ticket holders. That number is capped otherwise there would be more.
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reality check
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Villa fans suddenly believers in variance.
A lovely dose of Roger for them, right in the mush. |
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https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/10/sport/
aston-villa-premier-league-title-contender-spt-intl Deja vu. Emery does this regularly and people talk about him being a great manager. Then go quiet until he does it again a couple of years later. He did it in his first season at Arsenal, unbeaten in 14 with 10 wins and Auba scoring 10 goals from 11 shots on target. Not sustainable and will very likely revert to mean over time. Villa should be 15th based on chances created and conceded. He has never been anywhere near able to control games like every PL winner and proper PL challenger since Pep arrived. A very good but not top level manager. |
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Yes. Anyone who can build a squad take Pep + unlimited money to the last day is top level and miles ahead of the rest. Only Klopp has done it.
Pep's City are the best PL team ever and very likely cheating. |
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Arteta has spent over a billion quid since his arrival and won nothing (besides the FA Cup with Emery's team). He's actually spent more than Pep in that time period. It's be interesting to see how Emery would do with such vast funds to spend.
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Emery has made some good signings at Villa- Torres, Tielemans, Morgan Rogers, Onana etc. I would consider him to be more tactically astute than Arteta.
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Chelsea and Man Utd both failed to win very winnable games, so it wasn't such a bad night for Villa after all. And they don't have to play Arsenal again. Whereas Man Utd have played Wolves twice. Losing Kamara, Onana and Cash for this game, was equivalent to Arsenal losing Saliba and Gabriel for the Villa Park fixture.
If Villa qualify for the UCL again (which is prolly top 5), with their transfer restrictions, it will be a tremendous achievement. |
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A far more realistic target cb29, for they are
going so well they may as well tilt at the moon. Arteta and Emery are both good managers and both still improving. Bit like grand prix racing as driving the right car gets you titles. If you are as good a driver as pep you pick which car you want. |
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Villa have spent £700m since they got promoted in 2019, that is only one window more than Arteta has been at Arsenal.
The reasons Emery hasn't spent more are 1) he hasn't been there as long 2) they haven't had 3 years of CL football, only 1 and 3) 91% of their revenues are spent on wages (they've already been fined a much needed £9m by UEFA for this). Arsenal are just over 50% of revenue on wages. Emery gambled the last spare cash to pay Rashford and Asencio wages to go for CL and lost that bet. About £360k a week between them. Now he's paying Sancho 200k a week this season. None of that counts as spending in your eyes as there's no fee. The Villa owners have pumped in about £700m since 2018 to fund all their spending and there's very little left. Then they cry about PSR rules. They spend in a different way, on wages more than fees, but they still spend far beyond their means. Big clubs do not rate Emery the way you do. |
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Impressed with Arsenal - as their manager says, they adapt their game: no team better at playing for a set-piece but some decent footballers too.
Still, can't help rooting for Pep's team .. |
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Yeah, haaland goes in at £60 million, and
teams like villa have to pay more to attract big players. No way he was signing for villa for 60 mil... |
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True. But they say you meet everybody twice, once on the way up and once on the way down.
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Haaland cost City what a 150m player would have cost, that's what he was worth when they signed him. His agent negotiated low release clauses for all his moves until City (£5m, 20m, 60m) so that he could move freely and never be held to ransom.
That just meant that the agent's fee was massive and so were the wages and bonuses. The fee is lower but the wages etc much higher than what a 150m player would get. The overall cost to City is about the same imo, just the player/agent gets a much larger chunk than the selling club normally does. He signed a new 9.5 year deal in Jan on a reported 500k a week basic salary. They got a lot of wages off their books to make way for his too (Jesus, Zinch, Fernandinho and Sterling). If he wanted to go to Villa they'd only have paid 60m to Dortmund too but wouldn't have been able to afford the rest. |
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Yeah, but net spend shows £60mil
Clever by his team, of course. |
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Villa just need to scout better. I've no sympathy for them whilst they thought it was stringent to buy the likes of Coutinho and other wasters who ended up not being consistent first team players and a millstone round their necks. I have little time for teams who do these FFP fiddles like Villa have either, consistent swap deals with Everton and Chelsea to try and cook the books. The deal for Harvey Elliott was very odd as well and it is the player that is left in the cold because Villa can't afford another player that Emery can't find a place for
They might end up another Leicester where they hold onto players for too long until their value drops |