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21 Dec 25
19:48
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27 Jan 02
It takes a leap of imagination but if Arsenal and Manchester City falter, Villa look much the best placed to take advantage.
These events recur more than once in thirty years.
These events recur more than once in thirty years.
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Two horse race...end of thread...
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They are a good team, but there are so many good teams in the league
they will likely hit a sticky patch. 3rd would be a great finish, even from here, Keep going, take another look after 10 more games,... |
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Very impressed by Man City lately and Arsenal last night (when they barely got out of second-gear to beat Everton) but I'm not convinced it will develop into a 2-horse race. Clubs like Villa stay in contention for the League about once in a decade - they have to make those years count.
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Currently available at 30s, I would consider a bet if they add another 0,
Would be a great season if they are top 4. |
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Yes. Wait til end of Jan at least as they have v tough away fixtures next month.
One thing with them is they are massively outperforming their xG for and against figures. They should be bottom half based on this and it normally reverts to mean. |
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You certainly seem to see the world differently to most UB, i'll give you that
 Arsenal have been average lately and created little last night, they had to rely on a brain fade by O'Brien to gift them the points. And don't forget the more than reasonable shout for a penalty the toffees had - similar incidents have resulted in VAR interventions recently and spot kicks awarded. The gunners also had immense luck in the week when the tailed off Wolves managed to put two in their own net to again gift them the points. They play Villa again in just over a week which will be interesting. If villa get a result there then they have to be taken seriously as title contenders. City on the other hand have indeed been impressive of late and are scoring plenty, without relying on set pieces which Arsenal tend to do. On current form i would have them favourites. |
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no. It's not sustainable what they are doing and the poor summer recruitment/being strung by FFP will hinder them down the stretch
I reserve the right to change this opinion if Watkins finds his shooting boots again |
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Prolly not the best time to start a thread with Chelsea and Arsenal away their next two fixtures. I backed them not to finish in the top 6, on the back of a small squad, European commitments and poor recruitment. I think I've done my money, but they've been extraordinarily lucky this season to get to their current position, and it's a position they'd still need to improve on.
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How have they been lucky Clyde?
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No
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Well on EXG they'd be 15/16th in the table. Their XGD is -5. Yet somehow they are third. They've scored 10 goals from outside the box this season and conceded 1. Only 2 other teams have scored more than 4.
Game 1 Newc (h) 0-0. Newcastle the better team and you couldn't have argued had Newc won. Game 2 Brent (a) 0-1 Deserved something from this game. Only game this season where they've been unlucky Game 3 CP (h) 0-3 Deserved to lose but not by 3 goals Game 4 Eve (a) 0-0 Comprehensively outplayed but somehow escape with a draw. Could easily have lost by 2 or 3. Game 5 Sun (a) 1-1 Sunderland down to 10 men early. Cash scores a wonder goal but 10 men Sunderland deservedly equalise Game 6 Ful (h) 3-1 Fulham well on top first quarter of the game. Very unlucky to have a goal disallowed by VAR, and then a penalty disallowed from an outstretched arm by cash when the ball was going in. Villa ride their initial fortune and end up deserving to win based on the rest of the game but could have been very different Game 7 Burn (h) 2-1 A deserved win Game 8 Spurs (a) 2-1 A game of few chances, Spurs create the better ones, but 2 strikes from outside the box secure the points for Villa. Lucky to win. Couldn't argue with a draw, but if there was a winner a poor Spurs deserved it more Game 9 M City (h) 1-0 First good performance all season but fortunate to win. An even game and a wonder goal by Cash. Late tap in for Haaland denied by marginal offside. Villa had been easily a bottom half of the table team on performance up to this point. But they've been much improved since Game 10 Liv (a) 0-2 Rogers hits the post from distance. Villa play reasonably well and their standard is improving but Liverpool deserved to win Game 11 Bour (h) 4-0 Two wonder goals and a fluke. Martinez with a fantastic penalty save. Scoreline is ridiculous. On performance Villa just about deserve to win Game 12 Leeds (a) 2-1 Free kick winner from Rogers. An even game that Villa just about edged. Game 13 Wolves (h) 1-0 Another game like the previous one that Villa just about edged, but could have easily not. They were poor consodering the opposition though. Took a wonder goal from Kamara to win it. A real 1 in 100 chance Game 14 Arsenal (h) 2-1 Another game like the previous 2 that Villa just about edged. Prolly their best performance of the season. Saliba and Gabriel both missing and a last minute winner in injury time. That's the way it's rolling Game 15 Brighton (a) 4-3 Another game like the previous 3 that Villa just about edge. A very good performance against a decent side from 2 goals down Toss up between this and the Arsenal game for performance. Game 16 West Ham (a) 3-2 Another game like the previous 4 that Villa just about edge, but West Ham can easily argue they deserved a draw. In those sort of games you can get any result, but Villa are getting the 3 points in these gamesevery time. Another blinder form Rogers and I seem to recall a very marginal offside denying WH an equaliser Game 17 Man Utd (h) 2-1 A lucky win and another stunner for Rogers. Prolly the weakest Man Utd this season, especially with Fernandes getting injured. Cunha misses a great chance for Man U late on to give them a draw which was the least they deserved. A sixth 1 goal victory in a row for Villa, in 6 reasonably even games |
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Arsenal win the title end of
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^kiss of death
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Dec 30 Arsenal v Aston Villa will tell us much more.
No doubt Arsenal will be in contention at the end.+ |
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Morgan Rogers has netted seven goals from an xG total of just 2.86 in the Premier League this season, with his +4.14 xG overperformance the second-highest of any player across Europe's big five leagues, after only Harry Kane (+5.97).
Opta |
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Morgans been a money maker in the shots on target market recently.
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if any team other than arsenal or man city win the league i will give you the money myself.
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If Leicester could win so could Villa. Is this season’s lot as moderate as they were in Leicester’s year?
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Villa might need as many pelanties as Leicester got
and for other teams to implode as they did. Leicester got 81 points, winning by 10 points. Recently it's been a bit tougher at top end with some epic battles before last year's cake walk for l'pool. So these seasons do happen where lots of top teams underperform points total of 2nd place in every 38 game Prem season: 95/96: Newcastle, 78 96/97: Newcastle, 68 97/98: Man Utd, 77 98/99: Arsenal, 78 99/00: Arsenal, 73 00/01: Arsenal, 70 01/02: Liverpool, 80 02/03: Arsenal, 78 03/04: Chelsea, 79 04/05: Arsenal, 83 05/06: Man Utd, 83 06/07: Chelsea, 83 07/08: Chelsea, 85 08/09: Liverpool, 86 09/10: Man Utd, 85 10/11: Chelsea, 71 11/12: Man Utd, 89 12/13: Man City, 78 13/14: Liverpool, 84 14/15: Man City, 79 15/16: Arsenal, 71 16/17: Spurs, 86 17/18: Man Utd, 81 18/19: Liverpool, 97 19/20: Man City, 81 20/21: Man Utd, 74 21/22: Liverpool, 92 22/23: Arsenal, 84 23/24: Arsenal, 89 24/25: Arsenal, 74 |
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liverpool 92pts and 97pts and didnt win it either year.incredible.
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That is incredible, I agree.
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It's a bit like an auction, 2 want same thing push each other
to higher level, no competition and price is lower. |
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Villa do seem to be the surprise package, but the juggernaut that is Man.C looks unstoppable to me.
Will the gunners go the distance ? That is the question imo. |
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No way, Unai
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Would be funny, considering Unai is ex-Arsenal, but can't see it myself. Two horse race, with Arsenal leading the way. I still feel that City have flaws. The January window could be telling though.
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What Villa are doing this season is reminiscent of Emery's first year at Arsenal. He went on a 14 game unbeaten run in the PL, winning 10, while playing not so great and massively outperforming the underlying numbers. Auba scored 10 goals from 11 shots on target during this run. It reverted to mean and he finished the season needing 6 points from the last 5 games to get top 4 and he only got 4. Then lost the EL final 4-1 to Chelsea to miss out on CL again.
The way Arsenal are attacking lately reminds me a lot of how England attacked under Southgate. It was the same last season but not the previous two. Can't see them winning unless that changes. Eze and Gyok arrivals haven't made any difference up top from last season. |
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Like the Southgate analogy, but that's fairly
recent, and maybe they've slipped into it, because of circumstance rather than by desire. Once the starters return they likely open up. |
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Arteta's desperation to finally win the title will most likely cost Arsenal.
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They were attacking like this all last season too, very slow ball progression vertically, allow the opposition to bed into a low block then attack a packed defence, over-reliance on corners for goals. Very little vertical play thru the middle, u-shaped passing out to one side back thru the midfield then out to the other wing like Southgate, players very static. I don't think Gyok is the answer, but I don't think that position is the main goal threat in his system. Kane was barely in big games under Southgate too playing like that.
It is very risk averse and in fairness that helps on the defensive side as there are fewer dangerous counter attacks. But he goes a goal down away at Sunderland, Chelsea, Villa and it changes, much more urgency and aggression in attack much more movement up top, and gets an equaliser relatively quickly, has all the momentum but immediately goes back to risk-averse. Playing like that they will drop points against the better sides, which they did in those games. It's too cautious and it leads to all his best players having to play too many minutes as games are on a knife-edge until the very end, even against Wolves. Attacking players are good enough to get him out of sight within an hour against most sides if he lets them off the leash a bit more, then rest players earlier and give the squad players more minutes too. I think once Gabriel comes back he will play the same but have his big threat from corners back, that's where he sees more goals coming from. |
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Morgan Rogers for Player of the Season if you think Villa might be top 3?
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This game defines Villa's title shot:- win here and the sky is the limit.
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23% possession so far, no shots, no corners
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Terrible lack of ambition
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1-1
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1-2 Villa seem calm and dont panic.....
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Encapsulates Villa's season so far that match.
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Arsenal v Villa 20:15
Fear Villa may be angling for a draw again with their starting lineup tomorrow. Arsenal/Villa @ 60/1 may be worth a go with BetFred |
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66/1 - sorry
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