Prem' H'cap Mkt...

Yeah, not sure why they havn't added it yet. It's live on the likes of 356, though.

Villa was pretty obvious last year, but I can't find anything that stands out this time, so I likely won't have a bet. Roughly 100 points is the target, so I guess one of the mid-table teams, like fulham with 42 points, outperforms.

Bot 356

Premier League 24/25 Season Handicap:

Team
   

Handicap
   

Odds

Man City 0
Arsenal 2
Liverpool 9
Chelsea 16
Man Utd 18
Newcastle 19
Tottenham 20
Aston Villa 24
Brighton 32
West Ham 34
Crystal Palace 34
Bournemouth 39
Brentford 42
Fulham 42
Wolverhampton 42
Everton 42
Nottm Forest 46
Southampton 50
Ipswich 50
Leicester 51

Palace worth a pop

yup they looked like the ones to be on to me also- think it looks like they have a decent manager on board

no Olise and possibly no Guehi this year (though both missed parts of last season)..

quite like West Ham though not a market I'd get involved in..

Palace, West ham, Brighton all look capable of reaching 100

The money spent by West Ham warrants a top 6 finish. 62-66 puts them in contention, so they would be my bet.

West Ham would need to have their new-signings all firing from the off... not very likely. Top 6 would be a huge triumph imo, but certainly not impossible.

@ 23 I'll have West Ham to be relegated That would be comedy Gold!

Palace nd Villa will be ones to avoid in this market, not because I think they won't do well necessarily although I do think Villa will struggle but because the market would have over-reacted to how they went last season.

I want a side who were poor last year and who may have a better one as they'll be given too much leeway in this market, so Everton +42 for me, although they do have another threat of a points deduction hanging over them though they think they will be alright !!

Not sure about having to be poor last year. Palace are kind of in the same boat as Villa were - bad start to the season but finished strongly. Although, yeah, I don't think they are on the same trajectory. Tell you what, Forest at +47 could give you a run.

Wolves at +42 for me ... new signings looking good pre season (esp. Brazilian Right wing back Pedro Lima)

Yeah, Wolves good shout also.

United +18...who reckons they are getting 70+ points

They would need around 80 points Duffy - even more lol

Still not a mkt on here.Can't be doing it can they?

market up now

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.231743265

West Ham favs by miles

New manager at west ham.. Looks like a totally new direction.. who knows?? Not for me, I'm guessing it's gonna end in disappointment.. Wan-Bissaka is the complete opposite to what David Moyes would pick..

Yep, depends how quickly they bed in new players, but
West ham were decent last season with Moyes like
Southgate holding back to attacking talent.

What happens should be fun for West ham getting their
swagger back, or bursting dem bubbles...

The attacking talent

Sporting Life Fancy Notts Forest +47:

There is the cliché cloud of uncertainty surrounding Nottingham Forest but they can take confidence from a solid enough end to last season which saw them secure Premier League survival - three of their final four defeats came against sides playing in Europe this time around.

They’ve aimed to address their set-piece problems of last season by signing 6ft 8” goalkeeper Carlos Miguel and 6ft 5” centre-back Nikola Milenković - sometimes it really is that simple - with the overall balance of the squad solid enough. Bournemouth, Fulham and Wolves finished in the top six of the handicap table with starts of 46 and above in 23/24, making Forest +47 a bet worth considering.

Best bet - Nottingham Forest (+47) to win the Premier League handicap table e.w. at 15/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)

Dunno why my c+p has forest on 46?

How odd.

I wouldn't touch Palace with stolen @ + 34. That handicap is nowhere near high enough, in my book anyway.

West Ham (+34) with a saver on Man Utd (+18) & Everton (+42) is my shout.

Couldn't back Utd with stolen money, even adding 10pts to that handicap

Without deductions, Everton got 48pts last season, so they would be the pick for me. Others with potential to overachieve would be West Ham and......Ipswich

It's deff going to one of the lesser teams with those huge handicaps. Fulham, Forest, Everton, Hammers of course, all in the mix

Lifter is right that 100pts total is a ballpark figure for winning this. There have been a few where mid 90s was enough, when the handicappers got it right. But usually they don't.

Quite a few teams came up short with 100+ ; 2 years ago the Top 5 all had 102 or more.

Man United would probably need a decent title challenge to get close in the h'cap.

The promoted teams perform strongest historically. It's just more likely that a team expected to be relegated will get 50+ than a team expected to finish 6th will get 80+.

Though last year's 3 were nowhere near

Thanks for the info, tobermory - I've only been playing the last two seasons, but it's an interesting market.

Hndcp Points    Diff on last season
                                                                                                                   
Leicester    51    ~~~                                                                               
Ipswich    50    50    ~~~                                                                                                                                                   
Southampton    50    ~~~                                                                                                                                                       
Notts Forest    47    -3                                                                                                                                                       
Wolves      42    -6                                                                                                                                                   
Everton     42    -6                                                                                                                                                   
Fulham      42    -4                                                                                                                                                   
Brentford     42    +2                                                                                                                                                       
Crystal Palace    41    -7                                                                                                                                                       
Bournemouth    39     -11                                                                                                                                                       
West Ham    34    -4                                                                                                                                                       
Brighton    32    +2                                                                                                                                                       
Aston Villa    24    -8                                                                                                                                                       
Tottenham    20    -6                                                                                                                                                       
Newcastle    19    +1                                                                                                                                                       
Man Utd        18    +4                                                                                                                                                   
Chelsea        16    +3                                                                                                                                                   
Liverpool    9    -3                                                                                                                                                       
Arsenal            2    -8                                                                                                                                                   
Man City    0     0

Seems to me they've given Man City every chance to go from bottom to top this season...

But, as said, normally one of the promoted sides gives you a good run for your money and an opportunity to trade out.
I'm going with Leicester and Southampton with a saver on Man City

Aug 14, 2024 -- 3:05PM, TheGoddess wrote:

Sporting Life Fancy Notts Forest +47:There is the cliché cloud of uncertainty surrounding Nottingham Forest but they can take confidence from a solid enough end to last season which saw them secure Premier League survival - three of their final four defeats came against sides playing in Europe this time around.They’ve aimed to address their set-piece problems of last season by signing 6ft 8” goalkeeper Carlos Miguel and 6ft 5” centre-back Nikola Milenković - sometimes it really is that simple - with the overall balance of the squad solid enough. Bournemouth, Fulham and Wolves finished in the top six of the handicap table with starts of 46 and above in 23/24, making Forest +47 a bet worth considering.Best bet - Nottingham Forest (+47) to win the Premier League handicap table e.w. at 15/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)

But Forest, Luton (), Sheff U, Burnley and Everton didn't....

Man City finished just 9 points off Villa, eight off Arsenal and 7 off of Bournemouth at end of last seasons handicap.
They are available at 48 on here (was higher!...) and that's about two to three times the price of most of the others and over 5 times the price of WHU. Definitely looks a team that will trade a fair bit shorter even if they dont quite get there.
Do have an inquiry hanging over them in January though so that is a worry and would explain the inflated odds available.

I guess it comes down to what chances you give city of getting 100 points this season. Personally, I think they will be slightly weaker than usual for various reasons, so to equal their best ever points total in a competitive season? Hmmm maybe 20/1? Then I think the chances of sanctions this year are greater than 50% so got to double those odds at least.

West Ham are a certainty for this.

Bit of an overeaction to GW. Fulham moved to 20/1 after a 1-0 loss at Old Trafford, while West Ham move from 9/1 to 14/1 after a narrow defeat to Villa.

Been filling my bags on Fulham.

3 look overpriced to me-

Arsenal +2 28

Man Utd +18 20

Tottenham +20 19

Suprised to see Brentford +42 currently in as second favourites.

Regarding Brentford - the market is very fickle. Hammers doubled in price after losing to villa. So a win against Palace, and a big handicap, has brought in buyers

The odd thing about West Ham was that they were so short to start with.

The handicapper is basically trying to get every team to 90pts, so he's predicting West Ham to get 58. Was that really a big blunder

They didn't get that many in the last 3 seasons, I saw them the other day and they seemed to have the same team

*prediction is 56 rather, but I can't see why they were expected to get so much more.

Brentford won the h'cap 2 seasons ago with +47, could be contenders again.

I layed West Ham & Spurs originally. Backed them a bit now.

Brighton my new biggest red, they did look good but against a poor team and can't see why any team should be single figures in this market after 1 game.

Aug 24, 2024 -- 12:11AM, tobermory wrote:

The odd thing about West Ham was that they were so short to start with.The handicapper is basically trying to get every team to 90pts, so he's predicting West Ham to get 58. Was that really a big blunder They didn't get that many in the last 3 seasons, I saw them the other day and they seemed to have the same team

65-66 points, and they likely win it - same they got in the 2020/21 season. They got 52 last season, and now they've bought EPL player of the season, an actual striker for once, improved the defence, and got a top manager. Now, you get 15/1 that all of that results in 13 more points. I think that's fairly good.

(Fulham still win)

EFL player of the season I suspect, Lifter...

had me scratching my head for a minute...

I saw them the other day and they seemed to have the same team

only one of the new signings started last weekend - so that's not a reflection of likely team going forward having spent about 120m+

Fulkrug, Summerville, Wan Bissaka, Guilherme ....first 3 of those you'd expect to be regulars and Kilman who did start last weekend.

As others have said - questions over how quickly they gel and obvs whether the new manager (Lopetegui) lives up to his billing..

Todibo on loan worth noting as well..valued at about 25-35m

Aug 24, 2024 -- 8:19AM, brentford wrote:

EFL player of the season I suspect, Lifter...had me scratching my head for a minute...

Sorry, yes, my brain was half asleep

I'm off to Palace v West Ham shortly, Palace are 2.04 and I'm very hopeful we get a win. It's absolutely hissing down so will get nicely soaked.

.

Aug 14, 2024 -- 3:05PM, TheGoddess wrote:

Sporting Life Fancy Notts Forest +47:There is the cliché cloud of uncertainty surrounding Nottingham Forest but they can take confidence from a solid enough end to last season which saw them secure Premier League survival - three of their final four defeats came against sides playing in Europe this time around.They’ve aimed to address their set-piece problems of last season by signing 6ft 8” goalkeeper Carlos Miguel and 6ft 5” centre-back Nikola Milenković - sometimes it really is that simple - with the overall balance of the squad solid enough. Bournemouth, Fulham and Wolves finished in the top six of the handicap table with starts of 46 and above in 23/24, making Forest +47 a bet worth considering.Best bet - Nottingham Forest (+47) to win the Premier League handicap table e.w. at 15/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)

This is looking shrewd. I didn't take any notice and they are one of my bigger reds.

After 5 games

1	Nottingham Forest(+47)		56
2	Leicester(+51)		54
3	Ipswich(+50)		53
4	Southampton(+50)		51
5	Fulham(+42)		50
6	Brentford(+42)		48
7	Bournemouth(+39)		44
8=	Everton(+42)		43
8=	Wolves(+42)		43
10	Brighton(+32)		41
11	West Ham (+34)		38
12	Crystal Palace(+34)		37
13	Aston Villa(+24)		36
14	Newcastle(+19)		29
15	Tottenham(+20+		27
16	Chelsea(+16)		26
17	Manchester United(+18)		25
18	Liverpool(+9)		21
19=	Manchester City(+0)		13
19=	Arsenal(+2)		13

5.1	Nottingham Forest		28	West Ham
7.8	Brighton		30	Arsenal
10	Fulham		32	Ipswich
12	Aston Villa		42	Manchester United
15.5	Brentford		48	Leicester
16.5	Chelsea		50	Newcastle
17.5	Liverpool		70	Everton
24	Bournemouth		80	Crystal Palace
24	Manchester City		90	Wolves
25	Tottenham		100	Southampton

Stand out discrepancy to me is Newcastle being 3 X the price of Chelsea when they have lost 0 ground to them.

Forest v Fulham a 6pter this week

Still early days, but yeah, the value was with those "lesser" teams who made improvements over the summer

Aug 21, 2024 -- 12:26PM, Lifter wrote:

Been filling my bags on Fulham.

Cheers.

After 8 games

1=	Nottingham Forest(+47)		60
1=	Leicester(+51)		60
3	Ipswich(+50)		54
4	Fulham(+42)		53
5	Brentford(+42)		52
6	Southampton(+50)		51
7=	Bournemouth(+39)		50
7=	Everton(+42)		50
9	Brighton(+32)		47
10	Wolves(+42)		43
11	West Ham (+34)		42
12	Aston Villa(+24)		41
13	Crystal Palace(+34)		37
14	Tottenham(+20+)		33
15	Newcastle(+19)		31
16=	Chelsea(+16)		30
16=	Liverpool(+9)		30
18	Manchester United(+18)		29
19=	Manchester City(+0)		20
20	Arsenal(+2)		19

5.1	Nottingham Forest		38	Manchester City
7.8	Brighton		50	Everton
8.4	Fulham		65	West Ham
9.6	Liverpool		80	Ipswich
11.5	Bournemouth		85	Arsenal
14.5	Brentford		100	Newcastle
16	Aston Villa		110	Manchester United
19.5	Tottenham		160	Wolves
27	Leicester		180	Southampton
28	Chelsea		230	Crystal Palace

Top 2 playing on Friday

Seems a huge disrecapncy in prices between Forest & Leicester.

Leicester seem to have some very good players

my position

99	Nottingham Forest		75	Manchester City
6	Brighton		62	Everton
141	Fulham		45	West Ham
154	Liverpool		72	Ipswich
132	Bournemouth		367	Arsenal
86	Brentford		459	Newcastle
222	Aston Villa		79	Manchester United
184	Tottenham		76	Wolves
345	Leicester		43	Southampton
129	Chelsea		123	Crystal Palace

Liverpool seem a bit short. Do backers expect them to get 92+ points?

If the handicapping is good then 95/96 might be a winning total, so Liverpool could do it with 87

Though they are only 3.75 to win the title which usually requires 91, so 8/1ish for the handicap doesn't seem out of line.

I'm red on them as I don't expect them to go close to the title. I think they've been a bit flattered to win so many.

Yeah, fair enough, if the market was "Liverpool to get 87" I'd say that's pretty fair. But I think the handicapper has got it wrong and both Forest and Fulham should be around 100 points - well, over 95/96 anyway. (not just saying this now as I thought this preseason)

After 11 games

1	Nottingham Forest(+47)		66
2	Leicester(+51)		61
3	Fulham(+42)		60
4=	Brentford(+42)		58
4=	Ipswich(+50)		58
6=	Southampton(+50)		54
6=	Bournemouth(+39)		54
8	Everton(+42)		52
9	Brighton(+32)		51
10	Wolves(+42)		48
11	West Ham (+34)		46
12	Aston Villa(+24)		42
13	Crystal Palace(+34)		41
14=	Newcastle(+19)		37
14=	Liverpool(+9)		37
16	Tottenham(+20+)		36
17	Chelsea(+16)		35
18	Manchester United(+18)		33
19=	Manchester City(+0)		23
20	Arsenal(+2)		21

3.15	Nottingham Forest		95	Leicester
4.6	Fulham		130	Ipswich
8.6	Liverpool		170	West Ham
9	Brighton		200	Everton
12.5	Bournemouth		250	Manchester United
17.5	Brentford		300	Manchester City
36	Chelsea		480	Wolves
55	Aston Villa		490	Arsenal
80	Newcastle		680	Southampton
85	Tottenham		920	Crystal Palace

This market starting to look pretty good for Liverpool. Their path to a 100 pt total from here - W 20 - D 3 - L 4 - seems quite plausible.

I still doubt they are the best team as the way they keep scoring just at the right time when not on top in games seems unsustainable.

But I was saying that a month ago, so want to be green on them here.

They should beat Southampton, and then, if they beat City next week will likely be favs for this.

Must be Forest's to lose.
Got to capitulate not to get to 100Pts.

1/7 forest

I think the handicapper has got it wrong

you talk of the handicapper as though it is a person, I thought the handicap is just how many points the team finished behind the winners of the previous season

WELL DONE TO THE SPORTING LIFE

Sporting Life Fancy Notts Forest +47:

There is the cliché cloud of uncertainty surrounding Nottingham Forest but they can take confidence from a solid enough end to last season which saw them secure Premier League survival - three of their final four defeats came against sides playing in Europe this time around.

They’ve aimed to address their set-piece problems of last season by signing 6ft 8” goalkeeper Carlos Miguel and 6ft 5” centre-back Nikola Milenković - sometimes it really is that simple - with the overall balance of the squad solid enough. Bournemouth, Fulham and Wolves finished in the top six of the handicap table with starts of 46 and above in 23/24, making Forest +47 a bet worth considering.

Best bet - Nottingham Forest (+47) to win the Premier League handicap table e.w. at 15/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)

QUESTION

Would you back any of Sunderland +65, Burnley +55 or Leeds +50 for next season or do you think those handicap starts will still not be enough?

Final Table

1	Nottingham Forest(+47)		112
2	Brentford(+42)		98
3	Fulham(+42)		96
4	Bournemouth(+39)		95
5=	Liverpool(+9)		93
5=	Brighton(+32)		93
7=	Aston Villa(+24)		90
7=	Everton(+42)		90
9	Crystal Palace(+34)		87
10=	Newcastle(+19)		85
10=	Chelsea(+16)		85
12	Wolves(+42)		84
13	West Ham (+34)		77
14=	Leicester(+51)		76
14=	Arsenal(+2)		76
16	Ipswich(+50)		72
17	Manchester City(+0)		71
18	Southampton(+50)		62
19=	Manchester United(+18)		60
20	Tottenham(+20+)		58

QUESTION

Would you back any of Sunderland +65, Burnley +55 or Leeds +50 for next season or do you think those handicap starts will still not be enough?

I was expecting them all to be given 56+ tbh, and would have backed Leeds. 65 is unheard of though, so Sunderland tempting. A 35pt season might be enough for them to win it, 40 probably do it.

The table is somewhat skewed by man utd, tottenham
huge underperformance, and arse man city chucking in towel
when Liverpool applied pressure. Then Liverpool easing off with title
more or less wrapped up

Also bottom 3 were simply dreadful.

Over reaction would be to give promoted teams too many points
and otherwise compress the handicap.

So citeh/arse, man utd/totts need a good look alongside
new 3,

Of course new trends will emerge next season but
they as unknown unknowns.

Aug 11, 2024 -- 6:10PM, Lifter wrote:

Not sure about having to be poor last year. Palace are kind of in the same boat as Villa were - bad start to the season but finished strongly. Although, yeah, I don't think they are on the same trajectory. Tell you what, Forest at +47 could give you a run.

Wish I listened to myself made a small ammount, but main bets were Fulham (not bad) and West Ham (awful).

Interested to see the handicap for next season. This season, it was clear the value was with those middle table clubs, as it would be hard for promoted teams and those looking to win the league. Maybe it reverses next season. Transfer window could decide it

Yep, but had Liverpool been pushed they would surely
have finished 2nd on handicap.

Forest huge blot.