Why does the market constantly underestimate Spurs?

no one else is winning the league if city are anywhere close to the levels of last season. clearly it's highly unlikely get close to 100 points again however well they play but the others need them to drop back to below 90 to have a chance. don't think anyone else capable of better than late 80s even if things go their way

yes thats the? factor - whatwill citeh be like this year?

Carragher never stops bugging up Spurs tbf mafe. He’s been consistent all season saying he thinks they are every bit as good as Liverpool.

Aug 29, 2018 -- 6:04PM, The Dragon wrote:

jed has it ..... no one has yet answered why the bookies - all of them ( the professional odds setters) have Spurs at the price they are . the answer is simple .. they dont believe  based on their assessments that spurs can win the prem , they have come to this view based on informed decsion making  and years of practice at setting the odds.  they are not normally that far out.dont forget , spurs have a massive defecit to make up on city, spurs have the same team/squad city have strengtheed.. i rest my case m'lord

With all due respect Dragon, this is pretty obvious, and we all know that.

But as someone rightly pointed out, the bookies have got is spectacularly wrong in two of the last three Premier League campaigns. They certainly aren’t infallible.

You rets your cas at the fact Spurs have less of a deficit to make up than 3/1 pokes Liverpool

nothing to do with liverppols price the thread is about the bookies underestimating spurs not overestimating liverpool.

spurs are the price they are coz thats the chance of them winning the title they are not underestimated in my view

12/1 on here its a fair price imvho

SKing

Not sure if it'll have much of a negative effect.  Played all home games last season at Wembley and still managed to finish 3rd and the new stadium is far better suited to Spurs' needs than Wembley was.

Didnt spurs play at white heart lane and at Wenbley in the CL games....so they had time to adjust...A luxury they havent got this time round....Anyways there's always a liverpool bias in these types of markets.

nothing to do with liverppols price the thread is about the bookies underestimating spurs not overestimating liverpool.

The main reason I started the thread, was comparing Spurs price to Liverpool's.

trust me players, coaches and fans cannot wait to leave to wembley. it's not like any normal club moving into a new ground. we've already left our revered former ground. we're playing in soulless dump at the moment. the new ground can only give a massive lift to everyone

Just as long as you haven't got that cr@ppy high angle tv camera shot that you had back in the day at the lane

For reasons Jed explains earlier, if LFC won the title this year it would not be considered a surprise.

For Spurs to do it would. There's no real logic to that on the pitch but the perceptions of the 2 clubs are so different therefore the prices reflect that.

Things could change quite quickly though. The pundits are admitting that if Spurs can regularly win away at the other top 6 clubs, the tide will have turned.

injera, as you say there's no real logic to it. twice in the past 3 seasons spurs have been within 4 or 5 points of the leaders with a handful of games to go and got 86 points 2 years ago which would nearly always have you in the frame. liverpool have been nowhere close yet with these players anyway

it really shouldn't be seen as a massive surprise if they managed to push on and find those extra 2 or 3 results that might make the difference

Spurs points tally for the last 9 seasons :

77, 86, 70, 64, 69, 72, 69, 62, 70

Winners points tally :

100, 93, 81, 87, 86, 89, 89, 80, 86

In horse racing form (I know it's not the same) but Spurs hammered a champion side on their home course.

Of course it's all about the SP before a ball was kicked, therefore the odds such as they are are reflective.
Liverpool circa SP 5s are now 3s. Spurs circa 11 from 20-1, Man City and the Chavs(completely unbacked) are roughly where they started whereas,
obviously Arsenil and Manure have gone for a ball of chalk.
Huge disparity from the Scousers to Spurs but then that is how it all began.

could easily argue liverpool have beaten absolutely nobody. west ham a complete shambles, palace and brighton away from home have hardly got a goal in them between the 2 of them

as for spurs only the last 2 seasons tallies are really relevant. the other 7 might as well be 70 years ago so little bearing do they have on the current spurs side

Palace away is a very tough fixture imo. Probably the hardest outside of the top six for me.

my total arguement on this thread realates to the statement " why do the markets constantly underestimate Spurs" and the answere is that they dont for the reasons outlined

the rest of the stuff is interesting but nothing to do with why spurs are priced like they are

stick to the point of the thread guys eg Liverpools price has nothing to do with it!!!!!!

great thread by the way and love the differnce and justification for the reasons taht are expressed!!

oh and by the way liverpool will win it this year

Dragon. Er, with all due respect, I started the thread. The title isn't the whole story... the opening post was discussing the disparity of the Spurs and Liverpool prices as being wrong.

Liverpool have everything to do with it.

Football form is not collateral there’s too many variables however you can find teams that you think will be harder to beat than the odds suggest

Dragon-I have a job understanding your pre spell checker musings anyway, but the last missive makes no sense at all.
mafe and I have tried to explain the difference, apparently it fell on deaf ears or English is your second language.

Liverpool finished a couple of points behind Spurs last season and have spent £164 million in the transfer window compared to Spurs spend of zip. Most people, and indeed the odds-compilers, would believe this to be enough to put them above Spurs this season, but not enough to put them above City.

CCM, i'd have leicester easily the toughest outside the top 6 at the moment although you have the good fortune to play them without vardy. most of the rest of the mid table sides much of a muchness. how many others likely to get over 50 points ? 1 or 2 at most. they're all very average although on their day virtually anyone can be difficult to beat away from home

mmmm spurs fans seem to have no reasonable objectiveness about spurs chances - but thats understandable i hope youve backed them coz if they win you will make a tidy profit

ccm - my posts relate to your opening statement not your views on the relative values of spurs and chelsea v liverpool so please take that into account in terms of the context of my posts.

the dominance of city and the investment and improvement in liverpool( champion League finalists ) make spurs the price they are.

By the way they (Spurs) also have had an easy start v **** poor utd,and relegation fodder newcastle and fulham

lets see how they do v liverpool and city

FIGJAM - I have fat fingers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

'Easily'?! Leicester are clearly a decent side, but before their victory over Arsenal in their last home game last season, they had failed to win any of their previous 7 games at home, against some really poor sides:

Lost to West Ham 0-2
Drew with Southampton 0-0
Lost to Newcastle 1-2
Lost to Chelsea 1-2
Drew with Bournemouth 1-1
Drew with Stoke 1-1
Drew with Swansea 1-1

Granted it was better before that, but personally I'd rather go there than to Selhurst Park. Think Palace only won three away games all last season... but they are a good side at home.

think we'll have to agree to disagree. i'd far rather go to selhurst park than leicester. bit of a moot point though. any of the top 5 sides will be nearly always be 1.7 and shorter at any other ground these days

Agree to disagree indeed. Just opinions at the end of the day. But considering there were only 3 points between the sides last season, I think its wrong to say one is 'easily' tougher than the other, especially when you account for the fact Palace had a much superior home record.

Fancy a charity bet on which team gets more points at home this season?!

themover has pretty much summed it up, Tottenham were the first team to spend £0.00 in 15 years in the transfer window, standing still usually equals going backwards, they're not traditionally big spenders and people react to that, the league table is usually a money table, he who spends the most wins. If you're comparing Liverpool and Tottenham in particular, then the fact Klopp has won league titles in the past helps, Pochettinho I don't think has every won anything.

They're also very reliant on Kane who scored 41% of their Premier League goals last season.

I think they're nailed on to finished 3rd, who wins the title is between Liverpool and City.

spot on dds

Be interesting to look back on this thread at the end of the season. Some good posts and some healthy differing views.

Personally I'll be very surprised if Liverpool finish more than a handful of points ahead of Spurs, if at all, which will make a mockery of their respective odds.

Mafe. Leicester actually got 1 more point at home than Palace last season looking at it... You've got the value

Personally I'll be very surprised if Liverpool finish more than a handful of points ahead of Spurs,

For somebody very sane when it comes to golf CCM,you suffer from the Scousers rose coloured glasses,
so apparently do the odds compilers as early prices have you favourites against us at Wembley.
Personally I still relive the first time I have seen a defender taken off half way through the first half,
when last year Kane destroyed Lovren.
I know it's a different ball game, but in no way are you favourites against us on a neutral ground.

CCM, happy to take you up on that

bit of a myth that spurs are heavily reliant on kane. scored something like 28 goals in 12 league games or parts of league games after he went off injured or was sub in the last 2 seasons. results have not been significantly worse. eriksen is more irreplaceable to spurs imo. he makes the team tick. of course if he missed a lot of games it might be different but that would apply to liverpool equally. they can't possibly replace salah adequately

you seem to be missing the point ccm , the market price is about WINNING thats why spurs are around 12/1 coz they are a 12/1 shot to win it!!!

Bit harsh Figjam, considering the whole premise of this thread is me saying Liverpool are too short and should be a similar price to Spurs!!! Yet I've still got rose tinted glasses on

You also missed off the three very important words after the part of my quote you have highlighted....

I couldn't agree more. We shouldn't be fav's at your place. Especially considering the Brazilian contingent play their last game in the early hours of Wednesday morning in the US.

OK mafe... its on. How much shall we say? Friendly £100? I will send it to a charity of your choice and vice versa? Nice one, should be a bit of fun, even if it does mean I have to cheer on the Snivelling Old Owl.

Dragon. I'm not missing any points, I understand how odds work mate. You appear to be missing my point. We just aren't three times more likely to win it than Spurs. Not a chance.

think the title 2 runners man city and liverpool think spurs will finish 3rd small squad will come back to bite them when champions league begins my top 4 man city liverpool spurs man utd now my team chelsea they have got no defence they are a shambles my big tip for this season one of the top 4 will beat chelsea by 5 or 6 goals trust me its a accident waiting to happen and they won't finish in the top 4 as for arsenal again they have no defence same as chelsea

a ton it is. know roy was one of your favourite liverpool managers

take it firmino unlikely to start then ? who'll take his place ?

Exactly.. will soften the blow if I lose! Have started a separate thread for ease...

Hard to know... Firmino is the player we are most reliant on imo as nobody else does what he does. Wondering if we might see Salah or Mane play up front if he is absent this season. Both play their for their country, have all the attributes required, and then Shaqiri can fill in their old position.

Shouldnt be an issue for the goalie and Fabinho not starting yet anyway.

Bit pessimistic atkins, your lot didn't look as bad defensively as Manure and the Scum.
However you see more of them than me, but I still think your lot will finish above them.

Surprised you are so negative dr, but pleasing to hear for my 13/8 on Spurs top London club bet.

Yeah I agree Figjam.. Chelsea 4th for me.

ccm thats a great bet the only way you get beat if kane out for 5mths

ccm we are shocking really are at the back the only hope we have if the manger drops luiz but then again it still won't be pretty pedro and others don't track back bournemouth at 10t1 are worth a bet sat but the best bet of all btts

Yeah sounds a good bet mate

chelsea gotta overcome the europa league slog once that kicks in. the constant thurs/sun turnaround is a big handicap even if you change a lot of the side. generally long trips to more far flung destinations and you just can't prepare properly for the weekend game

Yeah true enough Mafe.

4/6 Dr...

4t5 on here ccm

Good luck, probably not for me at that price.

if he plays any kind of a full team in europa league then the manager is a coont

everything got a price ccm even at 1t10 it's what you make it and i make it 4t7 so will keep putting money up to i get it on

Aug 30, 2018 -- 4:00PM, dr . atkins wrote:

if he plays any kind of a full team in europa league then the manager is a coont

Why? What else are Chelsea going to be winning this season?

Transfer windows are as much about keeping players rather as buying new ones.

Many new signings are very disappointing whilst others turn out to be fantastic. Can be a lottery though.

Spurs were vulnerable (as is any club) to bids for Kane, Eriksson, Ali, Alderw.. and Trippier. They kept all 5 and look a settled outfit. Making no signings was seen as a failure by pundits and bookies alike. Not an opinion I share.

Man U look disjointed, lop sided and who knows what their best team is? City added 1. They had no need to do more business.

LFC had clear and obvious needs. Keeper, CB and CM. They addressed all 3 and there's rightful confidence that they can go from 4th to top 2. Their price to win the thing is v unattractive though.

fair point n88

liverpools price has contracted antepost was around 5/1 from memory

teams like chelsea man city spurs arsenal liverpool have 3 main targets at the beginning of the season number 1 win the premiership number 2 win the champions league if in it and most important to any top club finish in the top 4 so chelsea should go all out to finish in the top 4 not going out to win the europa league yes i know if you win it you go in the champions league but that's not a priority

Chelsea aren't going to win the league. You will get out of your group with your reserves. Will be able to assess top 4 in Feb, right now it looks good for Chelsea anyway, but if it isn't Europa League is also another way in given Chelsea will probably be favourites for it in Feb.

Oh and I'd much rather win the Europa League than finish 4th.

One important point that I've not seen mentioned is that the 2 markets mentioned originally are not as connected as people seem to think. I'd love Spurs to win the league but i think 12/1 compared to 3/1 Liverpool and 4/6 City is about right. City are very likely to hit 90+ points and I don't see Tottenham getting to that level. It's possible Liverpool could. However I do agree with the OP that the without City prices are way too far apart. Tottenham look extremely solid once again and highly likely to rack up plenty of points so if Liverpool don't live up to expectations Tottenham could easily pip them to 2nd. 9/2 is a big price. Tottenham don't actually have to win anything to get paid out on this market.

Tottenham also have much more depth than people seem to realise on this thread. The only person they don't have good cover for is Kane and that's a problem they will always have. No top class striker is likely to sign and be 2nd choice. However, Son has already proved he can do a job through the middle and Moura clearly showed he can play up there too. For a game or two it's not a major issue. Obviously it would be if Kane got a more serious injury.

FJ

the odds compilers as early prices have you favourites against us at Wembley


Maybe cos the bookies are frightened of the twitter trolls if they list spuds as favourites. I mean, at least they beat Madrid.

Spurs were in a two horse race with Leicester for the title a few years ago. They finished 3rd.

Oh look, here's another moron

Aug 31, 2018 -- 1:19PM, FredRescue wrote:

Spurs were in a two horse race with Leicester for the title a few years ago. They finished 3rd.

Not sure why I bother to respond to the dumb trolls but here goes. Spurs were always chasing after a very poor start to the season and were never once ahead of Leicester in the table. They then downed tools after Leicester clinched the title.  Arsenal were the big losers that season. They were 12 points clear in January but somehow finished 5 points behind Leicester.

Liverpool are favourites away to Tottenham in 2 weeks, that is utterly dreadful.

suggests we'd something like 5/1 at anfield which is utterly absurd. only city and barca should definitely start favourites away to spurs these days. bayern might. not sure real madrid would without ronaldo now

Sep 1, 2018 -- 10:29PM, n88uk wrote:

Liverpool are favourites away to Tottenham in 2 weeks, that is utterly dreadful.

Let's not forget it's at a neutral venue.   Pool are way too short though.  Last season 4-1 FT Spurs.

It's not neutral venue, the fans will be 90% Spurs fans.

So if Liverpool played Barnet in the FA Cup final and it was 90% Liverpool fans at the game would it be considered a home game for Liverpool?

A lot of home advantage is derived from crowd advantage, travel obviously a factor too, but that's less of a factor in a Premier League game vs Europe.

Your example isn't really comparable because the gap between those 2 teams is so monstrous anyway, it would theoretically be an advantage for Liverpool, but in practice wouldn't change a lot.

Spurs have played at Wembley for over a season now so it’s hardly neutral. That’s like saying their new home ground will be a neutral venue this time next year.

I do think Watford are bieng undervalued by the market today

yes should be an intersting game today. would definatley not make liverpool fav at spurs

I guess that answers the question why.

Cos their sh1t

Sep 2, 2018 -- 5:57PM, ufcdan wrote:

Cos their sh1t

What about their ****?

sh1t*

Spurs being Spurs, that's who they are, and that's who they have always been.

Sep 2, 2018 -- 6:07PM, DirkDiggler wrote:

Spurs being Spurs, that's who they are, and that's who they have always been.

Salty Spurs backers venting.

I'd say the answer is lack of depth, their 1st eleven is top drawer (although not good enough today) but rotation when the cup comps kick in as well as injuries will take their toll.

Salty Spurs backers venting. LaughLaughLaughLaugh


I did ov 2.5 goals - check the MLS thread.

Thereyou go market doesnt often get it wrong , playing catch up now ... something they are not very good at

19 on here now city 1.7 liverpool 3.95

add chelsea into the mix and............ the market did not get it wrong by that much

Sep 2, 2018 -- 6:20PM, The Dragon wrote:

19 on here now city 1.7 liverpool 3.95add chelsea into the mix and............ the market did not get it wrong by that much

U were right the Dragon as u are about most things.

Some comments on here earlier about the Spurs v Liverpool game, what's people's views?

Laid Liverpool so far, despite today's result - at home v Liverpool a different match for sure.

Thats Why.....

Written off after one defeat?! They are one point behind Man City ffs!

Opinions lean towards the xtremes after results imo but in reality the person whose opinion leans less towards those extremes is often closer to the fact

or you could say if they lose to l,pool there 6 points behind them,

Lads, it's only Spurs.

One match changes sod all, obviously.

If it did then Man City would not have won the league, because they drew with Everton at home early last season.

The Dragon 02 Sep 18 08:41
would definatley not make liverpool fav at spurs

Still agree the odds are too short for the away win in that one Dragon?

yes stu not much between the two teams imvho and making liverpool 8/5 favs is understandable but not a bet for me

cheers dragon - I'm still a layer for Liverpool at these prices, not sure about bothering to back the Spurs win though, can certainly see a draw in that fixture as a possible.

yes its too unpredictable as a betting medium in my view , i could say an result happening . spurs walloped liverpool last season 4-1 if memory serves me right

It's way too short on Liverpool in my book. I have Spurs down as 2.5 shots, Liverpool like 3.2 shots, I just don't see how you can have Liverpool as favs. Only really City have gone to Tottenham in recent times and flat out outplayed them. The market is rating Liverpool like City to have them 2.5x away to Tottenham as that's about the price I'd make Man City away to Tottenham right now.

I think the prices are about right

i really don't why chelsea favs to be top london club i could never back spurs but think they have got it wrong with the betting