Football
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06 Jul 18
11:37
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Date Joined:
26 Jan 03
Despite what can be described as testing conditions for card sharps, it's still been possible to make some healthy profits. No reason why this can't be continued as we enter the business end of the tourney.
Couple of standouts in the 1st QF... Luis Suarez @4/1 with lads/corals & Diego Godin @100/30 slybet. Plenty of reasons both statistically & subjectively to fancy these two. Time permitting might add some meat to the bones and also throw in some muggy longshots for todays games.
Couple of standouts in the 1st QF... Luis Suarez @4/1 with lads/corals & Diego Godin @100/30 slybet. Plenty of reasons both statistically & subjectively to fancy these two. Time permitting might add some meat to the bones and also throw in some muggy longshots for todays games.
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added bonus filth!
 Slybet were well out with 100/30 Godin, gone already. |
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personally I have found this WC unpredictable , haven't staked a lot , but I m down for sure
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Pretty straight forward the Godin & Suarez to be carded bets. At the prices they deffo offer a bit of value in todays conditions.
They're the senior pro's in an extremely pragmatic side, representing a country that will literally be downing tools today for the football. All that matters is getting the job done by whatever means possible, no tiki-taka or samba nonsense for these lads. Their back catalogues have a history of cards for club & country. When you drill into the competitive matches they've played for Uraguay and cut out all the friendly dross their stats make their respective prices attractive. The real bonus though is the fact neither of the pair is on a yellow & facing a suspension thus whatever game state they find later picking up a yellow looks a given. Whether they're chasing the game late on or holding onto a lead, this pair will be using all their experience in the dark arts to gain any advantage. Everyone knows what Suarez is capable of & Godin is a Rolls Royce of a defender, not dirty as such but the kind of old school bloke who knows how and when to foul. The Argentine ref Pitana has looked solid and must have a chance of getting the final. He's reffed 3 Uraguay competitive games which Suarez has been involved in and shown him 2 yellows. I've also had a smaller dabble on Tolisso for France at 6/1. He comes in for the suspended Matudi, he's on a yellow already but i'm pretty sure he'd be back on the bench if France go through. Was gonna back Godin for a header @25's, he pops up with a few.. 8 for Uruguay in his 116 apps but we can get 24.0 for any time goal scorer on the exchange. One price i couldn't resist throwing a couple of quid at was Pogba to score a header @33/1 with slybet. As for the real filth... Godin to score a header & France score a pen @80/1 sly Godin to score, Uraguay win, Suarez carded, France 40+ booking pts @500/1 sly  |
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Fine margins. Suarez dodged a blatant yellow in the first half, no complaints though... par for the course in this tournament to see so many lenient decisions. Was a bit more peeved about Godin & his fkin miss from 2 yards though
 .Brazil v Belgium.. I'm on Neymar pre tourney @11/1 to be Brazils top booking pts. He's on 1 yellow for his petulant show of dissent in the Costa Rica game. He's 3/1 for a card tonight & going off his career stats it's a decent price. The obvious problem is the refereeing, Neymar has an awful disciplinary record for a striker... he picked up 6 yellows in 13 qualification games, double figures for PSG last season before his injury & 15 the year before at Barc. It's a big if admittedly but if Brazil are struggling it would be no surprise to see him throw his toys out the pram, it's just whether Mr Mazic has the cojones to book him. I'll be swerving it but cheering it on. For a bit of 'fun' iv'e taken the 5/2 for a pen awarded & the 22/1 for 2 or more pens with slybet. They threw me a fiver freebie & that's been plonked on the out of sorts Kevin de Bruyne to score from outside the box @18/1. |
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Suarez should certainly have been booked, unfortunately its a case of Graham Taylor's "What have they been instructed?!"
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Yeah it's abundantly clear they've been told to reign it in so to speak, therefore any complaints or sense of injustice is even more pointless / embarassing. Still won't stop me looking for a bit of value tho
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exactly, its all about the price for me too.
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Thankfully the de Bruyne strike rescued what was a frustrating day yesterday. With the ref's seemingly under instruction to disregard certain laws it's time to attempt to use this to our advantage with some cautiously small but value bets in the England v Sweden match.....
Under 35 booking pts @11/8 slybet Time of 1st booking - after 29mins @10/11 Sportsbook Time of 1st booking by Interval - 75 min to Full Time @17/1 Sportsbook Small sample sizes for todays punts but considering the conditions they're the only ones worth entertaining imho. First up the 2 respective teams... England have picked up only 4 yellows from 4 despite being involved in a coulpe of tasty encounters. Only 1 of those yellows hit before the 30 min mark. The Swedes have accumulated 6 yellows from their 4, again with 1 before the 30 min mark. The most compelling evidence for the above comes from the recent stats of todays extremely experienced ref Bjorn Kuipers. So far Kuipers has reffed 3 WC games...Egypt/Urg 1 yellow, Brazil/Costa 3 yellows & Spain v Russia 3 yellows In all 3 games the first card came after the 29min mark. The earliest was the 40th min card to Pique for handball for Russia's pen. In the Brazil game he didn't show the 1st card until the 81st min. With Eyg/Urg the only card came in the 96th min. To add a little more weight to the argument Kuipers reffed 3 major European ties at the end of the season. Marseille v Leipzig Europa QF ... 2 Yellows Bayern v Real CL Semi...3 Yellows Marseille v Atletico Europa Cup Final... 5 yellows Of the above 3, only 1 saw a card before the 30 min mark when from an Atletico defender straight after their 23rd min goal. If todays encounter is as tight early doors as a lot of commentators predict, i'd be hopeful of collecting on a couple of the above. Happy punting wherever your cash goes today boys n girls  |
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And now for some added bonus filth courtesy of the free fiver offered by slybet when yer punt a tenner or more on the England game..
To Say It's Coming Home & Momentum in the Commentator Bingo specials mkt @5/1 Bets Settled on Exact Words spoken by either commentator during Live in-play action From Kick-Off to the Final Whistle(Inc. ET, NOT Inc. Penalty Shootout) Studio Pundits DO NOT Count Only BBC TV Commentators Count Tbh i'm a bit naused by the Ingerlund hyperbole, but let's try and make a cheap pony out of it .The following clip sums up the state of the nation at the mo  https://twitter.com/i/status/1015168698846507008 |
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gl IDWM. Neymar was asking to be booked last night and should have received his card when booting the ball off a prostrate Witzel's bonce.
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Cheers DL... The blatant dive for a penalty is supposed to be an automatic yellow, would've given me a dead heat payout in my ante post bet. Not to be ... onwards & upwards tho
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Can't see the context for saying it's coming home. Could see if it is coming home as a question, which wouldn't pay out. Have the fans singing it at the games
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Agree to certain extent chromakey... but it's all over social media etc, people / the country starting to believe it's coming home etc etc ? Not something to overthink over tho...just a nasty little freebie
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I know. My world cup has been awful so far so I'm scratching around for anything atm
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Think your bets come in. Well done
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tremendous stuff yet again, IDWM!
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Cheers guys ... full house, 10/11, 11/8, 17/1 bookings and the 5/1 mug bet.
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Absolute belter mate, well done.
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Great day yesterday.. whilst we wait for the cream-cookies to get their act together on the Semi-Final card markets, i thought i'd put up some early *added bonus filth* for the handful of shrewdies who read this guff to ponder....
Several years ago the situation arose where for an albeit limited time it was possible to make a few quid backing Own Goals blindly in the Premiership with a couple of firms. Due to the dubious goals committee & increased use of technology there was a spike in the amount of Own Goals being awarded. A couple of firms that shall remain nameless priced up the OG at 14/1 & 16/1 for a few months until they twigged they were on a loser. Some stats... 2012/13... 47 og 2013/14... 46 og 2014/15... 29 og 2015/16... 32 og 2016/17... 35 og 2017/18... 30 og Wtf does that have to do with the WC semi's yer waffling bell  i hear you cry.So far in this WC there have been 11 games with an OG scored from 60. In the PL it is extremely rare for any of the bookies to go double figures... some regularly price em as low as 7/2. 365 are quoting 12/1 in both Semi Finals and for old times sake & a bit of 'fun' i'll be having a tenner on in both of 'em. |
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Still not decided how & if i'm gonna play the card mkts... they've begrudgingly priced them up now and you can make a decent case for half the field, but at the prices i'm not so sure. I missed a little rick from slybet early this morning whilst walking the dog... they went 9/1 de Bruyne, obviously didn't last long, he's still a standout 6's with 'em tho.
One bet i couldn't resist was Belgium in the Most Corners mkt @11/8 with 365 & Betstars, 13/10 Sportsbook. To date Belgium have taken 30 corners whilst France have ammassed only 15. Not a mkt i generally get involved in but for another small interest it does seem the value. |
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France v Belgium...
Ok onto the main theme of the thread, Cards. Swerving the main cards & bookings totals without much of a second thought. The tournament has an old school feel about it where it appears the Ref's are more than prepared to let things go to the extent it seems a wee bit corrupt without wanting to sound over dramatic. There's the tired old cliche trotted out by the pundits about wanting too see' all 22 players stay on the pitch' and then there's the blatant fudging we've witnessed by the men in black so far. 2moro's ref Urugauyan Andrés Cunha on paper looks another safe pair of hands. He's only reffed 2 to date in this WC dishing out 4 yellows in Fra v Aus & somehow only managing 2 in Iran v Spain. His record in WC quals & Copa America is certainly on the lenient side. The individual card mkts do offer a glut of fanciable prospects.. so much so the abundance of choice became a tad overwhelming and i've decided to go totally leftfield & having missed the 9's about de Bruyne gone with the other rag in the market... Eden Hazard to be shown a card @ 7/1 in several places I can't for one minute pretend there's any value in the selection whatsover. However there is a sliver of method in my madness. Hazard is currently the most fouled player in the tournament, clearly it seems counterintuitive to be backing him but if we agree that the ref's are allowing plenty of early fouls to go unpunished then it follows that the trend will continue 2moro. Hazards temperament isn't normally of a guy who enjoys the needle, if yer can forgive him the season he downed tools coz Jose upset the cute bit of slice that brought on the magic spunge at Chelsea, he generally sticks to doing his talking on the pitch. However although his disciplinary record is very good, he's only human & he can react. On a couple of occasions he's been booked playing Man Utd who sometimes man mark him & always set out to unsettle him. One of his only cards for Belgium came in the 2014 QF defeat to Argentina when he again got involved with a bit of retaliation. I've no idea whether the French will have any plans for him. But they should .Over 1.5 Goals, Over 8.5 Corners, Over 25 Booking Points 13/8 Over 2.5 Goals, Over 10.5 Corners, Over 35 Booking Points 13/2 With the hope of an entertaing open game that sparks into life at some point, the above have been added to the portfolio courtesy of slybet. |
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Croatia v England...
Ante Rebic to be shown a card @3/1 unibet Nice & easy this one... no overthinking or speculative scenarios required. The 24 year old left sided attacker is the value on paper without question for 2moro night. The stats.... He's only made 17 apps for Croatia, completing the full 90 on only 2 occasions. Of the rest he was mainly used as a late sub or taken off around the hour mark. He made his debut as a sub in a couple of friendlies before the 2014 WC, he came on in each of their group games in the 78th min x2 and then in the 69th min v Mexico where he managed a straight Red. His one and only contribution to Euro 2016 was a 2nd half sub appearance v Italy in a qualifier where he picked up a Yellow. He's started 4 of the Croats games in this WC, being rested for the Iceland game after they'd qualified. He picked up his only Yellow of the tourney so far v Argentina where he was very fortunate not to be sent off. He was then sensibly subbed after 57 mins. He plays his club football for Eintracht Frankfurt & his disciplinary record for an attacker is poor.... 2017/18 9 Yellows in 29 games 2016/17 11 Yellows in 28 games In 2015/16 he was in Serie A with Fiorentina & Verona... he made 17 combined apps for the pair and picked up 5 Yellows & 2 Reds. He's as low as 4/6 with Chandler, Evs with slybet & generally a 6/4 shot. The 3's with unibet looks a solid play for a WC semi with no fear of suspensions. |
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Another resounding victory for the good guys with Hazard
 , and a nice little bonus on the Belgium corners.Let's hope Rebic can live up to his stats. |
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Inspired stuff again!
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Seems only dodgy physics prevented your og from coming in
Following tomorrow |
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great stuff dolphins ,well done !
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gl IDWM. Rebic to score also too big @8/1 on here.
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daylight Ribery, IDWM! Two clear bookings not given, then he brandishes one 6 mins into extra time!
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Rebic was book wasn't he ?
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booked
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Was a farce mes. He elbowed Walker, ref runs over and seemingly books him. Name comes up on screen. Turned out he'd booked Mandukic for punching the ball away. Reb was booked during extra time.
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oic
ignore that. |
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Rebic
. The lad has been one booking short of a suspension since birth, Christ knows what damage he did to his poor mother in the delivery room ... busted sofa comes to mind. Hard lines with the goalscorer bet DL... coulda been another top result, onwards & upwards |
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Well done dolph , been difficult for cards backers this Tournament , could be a few in the final maybe ?
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Dunno mate... they'll hopefully be some value somewhere, there usually is
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Rebic 15-8 to be booked in final 365
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25's to be sent off with them... whichever FIFA Yes Man get's the Final, maybe they'll think fook it...doesn't matter now.
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Nestor Pitana the Argie.
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Rakatic 5-1 to be booked might go for that , can be very nasty at times, yep with such a lot at stake something crazy could happen
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