Football
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Interested to hear what you think the best even money bet in football is?
Right now I am betting a treble consisting of heavy odds on shots to create odds of around evens. This week is Liverpool, Man Utd and Celtic.
There are other trebles I do with O1.5 Goals, Double Chance (with teams like Southampton and Draw) and also occasionally bet a 1-X-2 single if the team is around evens and I think they have a great chance.
Which of these do you think is the easiest to predict? Also please tell me of other evens or about football bets you do.
Cheers,
Scott
Right now I am betting a treble consisting of heavy odds on shots to create odds of around evens. This week is Liverpool, Man Utd and Celtic.
There are other trebles I do with O1.5 Goals, Double Chance (with teams like Southampton and Draw) and also occasionally bet a 1-X-2 single if the team is around evens and I think they have a great chance.
Which of these do you think is the easiest to predict? Also please tell me of other evens or about football bets you do.
Cheers,
Scott
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Replies: 40
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best evens bet this weekend is Ireland to beat England
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Statistically, a double is much safer than a treble. I'd go with a double chance (team not to lose) double. Find a couple of solid 2/5 shots and there's your Evens double.
I haven't looked today yet but if I see any candidates I'll post them. |
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Wolves / Fylde
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^^^ both winning
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Incredibly hard luck with fylde 89 & 93 minute goals.
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to think they got 7? goals last week
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scott,
just keep doing what you are doing. and stay off this forum. bunch of losers on here. no one will give you good advice (except for me) doubles and trebles are very risky, but if you do your due diligence and believe in the results coming in then good luck to you |
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my advice is as follows: you probably have a league, or a few leagues, that you know pretty well, or follow quite closely. when a league you know is playing, look at prices that are around the evens mark, whether a bit below or a bit above and decide if you think they are the right price or not. in other words, do YOU think the likelihood they'll win or not win is 50/50 or a bit better or a bit worse? then lay or back the price accordingly. remember, if you lay, in match odds, then the draw is on your side.
i would also say, don't do multis, if you fancy certain outcomes in two or three different matches, then just do them all as singles. if one lets you down, you don't lose that way but it depends what your motivation for betting is to start with and if you want to win big quickly from small stakes then of course an acca is the only way.. |
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i have backed nearly every team at home at some point, and they have all lost at some point or another when they are expected to win. Hope this helps
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the only way to really make money from betting football is to bet in play on betfair, trade late goals, lay at low prices, lay teams who are a goal or 2 up and the other team is going to get back in it.
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green up when you can... but also let your profits run when you can... and also learn to take a loss when it's necessary
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look at it this way, if your liability/red (what you stand to lose) is always bigger than your potential profit/green ( what you stand to gain) in the long term due to variance or whatever you will lose money. you want your green to always outweigh your red.
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saying that, you can make money betting with heavy red liability and small green and make profit but you will have to devise a staking plan and appropriate tools for finding value
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theres are lots of ways to play the game , i would say fine tune something you are successful with , and if your not successful , change it ...you will hit on something in the end , we all have our pet favs
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which is exaclty the point. the more you roll them into a multi, the more chance one lets you down and scuppers the whole bet. as singles you lose less but, if you do win,you win mmore slowly, so it's less exciting. in the end you find what works you you, some people swear goals is the way forward, others match odds, bookings corners, whatever. in the end, i believe it's what you focus on and control the staking, which i don't always do either.
joking aside, i don't think many of the long term big winners are on this forum any more. cue a cigar photo from the resident pro  |
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i think most of the bettors on here started betting multiples. you win the odd one but more often than not you'll lose, and large sums as well because you are so confident. in time you will learn the correct ways of betting,
the long-term big winners don't sit on a forum all day. they probably have a life and that's why they can win big. they don't have to bet all day every day, they bet selectively, win their money, take it, and wait for the next opportunity. |
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if you want to make good money on betfair, become a layer. lay low prices, that way your green is always bigger than your red. you only need to devise a suitable system, i.e.backing late goals in games, and you'll make profit long term. you also need a lot of luck as football is a skill game but there's also a big degree of luck involved.
football is also highly dependent on momentum. and it's fairly good if you can spot patterns in a game. one team dominating. expecting a goal rather than hoping for one. if anyone wants to follow a succesful football trader check out this guy on twitter: @ psychofftrading i am learning a lot just reading his posts. he also puts out goal alerts and they pay off pretty well for him and his followers (i am not affiliated with this bloke, just showing the way) |
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its true if you are doing well you may not join in on forums , but its also true if you are losing all the time you wont be on forums either ....be open minded ...there is of course a lot of rubbish to go through , ..but while most are wrong most of the time , a few are right a few of the times ...id=f your open minded your weed it all out for yourself
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Stenhousemuir (home win) 40/85 doubled with Ayr (away win) 4/9 tonight pays 2.124 on SB
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psychoff is excellent. He watches about 4 matches at a time and predicts late goals just from what he sees. He does not use any stats
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Stephen Hawkings last words were......
Lay Austria @ 1.96 against Slovenia |
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shrewsbury later don't look a bad bet, available at 2.26 currently.
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I agree , look great price , might do double with Ayr as suggested , thanks trilby
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over 2.5 goals Crewe v Forest Green 2.06
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quite like the look of that as a goals bet, i don't usually do them but, as it's silly season (i.e. international friendly fortnight!), i've had a nibble, gl
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it was either that or start ordering £50 of cajun chicken from sainsbury's online
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Houston, we have a slight problem in Stenny ...
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overs landed in crewe, good shout FTB
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Ayr nice for booms cannny beat a Scotty boooooom need one more shrews
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Oh two red card I see
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yeah, shrewsbury finished 1-1. rochdale were a lay as well that i overlooked. saw them at 1.9 something earlier and thought it was a lay but didn't. that will have to go down in the 'one that got away' column.
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Well, that didn't quite go to plan. Wtf happened to Stenhousemuir last night?
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^ at least overs paid a divi - so not complete devastation
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wycombe 2.28 or over 2.5 goals 1.97 cant make up my mind any ideas which way you would go
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looking at crawley's home form, i wouldn't back wycombe to win away at those odds but that doesn't mean it won't happen. personally i'm looking at the wigan lay at 1.66 but i would advise go with your own instinct
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i can see goals in the crawley so think ill be going the over 2.5 route in that one, good luck with yours
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A boring thread but I will add my tuppence worth. If you back with the books a 1/2 and a 1/3 shot it pays exactly even money unlike Plat's version....
Platini Date Joined: 20 Dec 02 Add contact | Send message 17 Mar 18 13:16 Joined: 20 Dec 02 | Topic/replies: 18,557 | Blogger: Platini's blog Statistically, a double is much safer than a treble. I'd go with a double chance (team not to lose) double. Find a couple of solid 2/5 shots and there's your Evens double. Not nit picking Plat as that's as near as you state. Problem is, if you say stick a ton double on a 1/2 and 1/3 shot with the books you will be paid even money if it obliges. Problem is, with the books it's approx. 8/11 the bet fails. |
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Singles, doubles or trebles etc. If the odds are evens (and they are efficient), you have an equal chance of each bet winning or failing. You have to be betting over the odds and that is it, bet at the right prices and the winners will look after themselves.
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