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Hamsterdam
23 Dec 15 22:35
Joined:
Date Joined: 03 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 12,946 | Blogger: Hamsterdam's blog
Take Villa vs West Ham...

Villa laughably are faves to win the match at 2.7
West Ham 2.9
Draw 3.3

I see the draw as the most likely result but is this a matter of my opinion of a matter of fact? I don't get how draws are priced up in matches like these where there's no strong favourite.
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Report tobermory December 23, 2015 10:51 PM GMT
Because the chances of an even number of goals being equally divided is always going to be less than 33%
Report Rugbyleaguer December 23, 2015 11:49 PM GMT
Back the draw every week and you will see why at the end of the year, just because two teams are evenly matched in ability does not mean they will share the goals. Only time draw was not the outsider was in Serie A in the 90's where goals were really scarce, used to go off at around 6/4
Report Zeze22 December 24, 2015 12:08 AM GMT
I remember a few years back in one of Cordoba's last league games of the season the draw went off at 3/10, it was a very bizarre game where Cordoba had already qualified for promotion and the opposition had benefits themselves for a draw so they basically decided the fate of the match themselves before kick-off!! Of course it finished 0-0
Report Zeze22 December 24, 2015 12:09 AM GMT
That is Cordoba of Spain btw, and it was actually published in the papers the night before if I'm not mistaken, not 100% on that tho
Report Zeze22 December 24, 2015 12:17 AM GMT
Sorry, done my research, it was actually Celta Vigo who needed just a draw for promotion while Cordoba would gain a play off with a draw, either way I wish I knew back then, I would have had my house on it
Report The Dragon December 24, 2015 3:46 PM GMT
draws are very hard to predict
Report 1st time poster December 24, 2015 4:12 PM GMT
correct prices or not in the betting world punters dont like betting on a result which over 90 mins you can be correct for 89 mins 59 secs and still lose, doesnt sit well with your average punter
Report donny osmond December 24, 2015 4:16 PM GMT
how long into the 90 minutes does it take for the draw to become favourite if no goals are scored ?
Report 1st time poster December 24, 2015 4:33 PM GMT
OBVIOUSLY DEPENDS  on the odds beforehand,top teams at home obviously stay fav beyond the hour mark,
a question ive asked many times on here do the in running odds run in tandem with the pre match odds or how the teams are performing if it stays level
Report Andriy December 24, 2015 4:57 PM GMT
For a draw to be favourite requires (i) a very low match total goal expectancy and (ii) 2 almost equally matched teams. A goal expectancy for both teams of about 0.95 will result in all 3 match outcomes having about the same probability of occurrence (ie 3.0 home/away/draw), and less than this can give a situation in which the draw is favourite. Apart from fixed end of season matches such conditions will only be found in Leagues with incredibly low average goal rates eg French second tier and Argentina, and in the knockout stages of tournaments where in recent history goals have been scarce due to teams playing in a very conservative manner due to enhanced fear of losing. As an example in the last World Cup, i recall the Italy England game being not far off 3.0 for all outcomes. The most recent African Nations cup finals also saw a couple of games with this setup.
Report 1st time poster December 24, 2015 5:09 PM GMT
what if 2 teams play each other who score 3 goals a game,draws dont automaticaly mean low scoring games
Report 1st time poster December 24, 2015 5:10 PM GMT
isnt it always been said that been 2 in front is a dangerous score
Report Injera December 24, 2015 5:39 PM GMT
Given that this is an Exchange site, I wonder how many times the draw trades 50% lower than SP.
Report Andriy December 24, 2015 6:10 PM GMT

Dec 24, 2015 -- 5:09PM, 1st time poster wrote:


what if 2 teams play each other who score 3 goals a game,draws dont automaticaly mean low scoring games


Your point is correct; if for example 2 equally matched teams in French 2nd div have high goal expectancies relative to the league then the draw will most likely still be outsider of 3. I probably should have written that such an occurrence is more likely to occur in leagues where there's an extreme sparsity of goals.

As regards your query re. in odds running match odds being in tandem with prematch odds, the answer is that they can definitely go well out of sync very quickly if one side is dominating, even when scores remain level.

Report Hamsterdam December 24, 2015 6:32 PM GMT
People over thinking this....maybe it's because punters are more like to back a team to win than back a draw which is a relatively boring bet. Of course over time you would be down....but that takes into account games where there's strong favourites.

I don't think draws are hard to predict at all, high scoring draws yes, low scoring draws no. 0-0 or 1-1 in this fixture.
Report Rockinron December 24, 2015 6:49 PM GMT
Stats mate ...
Draws in Prem games so far this season = 28% !
Much easier results to call....for me anyway !
Report wondersobright December 24, 2015 10:58 PM GMT
there is money to be made betting premier league draws if you know which matters to do it on
sorry I know that is vague but if I told you I'd have to kill youLaugh but andriy is spot on with his posts here
Report wondersobright December 24, 2015 10:58 PM GMT
*matches
Report wondersobright December 24, 2015 10:59 PM GMT
the weight of money that bookmakers take on both sides would be unmanageable if the draw was fav
most punters want to bet teams to win
Report tobermory December 24, 2015 11:32 PM GMT

Dec 24, 2015 -- 6:32PM, Hamsterdam wrote:


People over thinking this....maybe it's because punters are more like to back a team to win than back a draw which is a relatively boring bet. Of course over time you would be down....but that takes into account games where there's strong favourites. I don't think draws are hard to predict at all, high scoring draws yes, low scoring draws no. 0-0 or 1-1 in this fixture.


If a game is gonna finish under 2.5 goals then there are 6 possible scorelines and only 2 of them result in a draw . No one would ask why the draw is never fav in rugby. If the chance of 0-0 is not more than 12% then it is very difficult to get the total draw % above 30% .

Report sonofshinner December 25, 2015 8:05 AM GMT
with home or aways..you could be out of sight mostly any time in the match...with draws you carnt.so the % must be less with draws.
Report Rugbyleaguer December 25, 2015 11:30 AM GMT
People keep mentioning the draw being priced as it is because people like to back wins, it has nothing to do with this, the prices are a reflection of likely hood of it happening, if the price was wrong then it would be smashed into straight away.
Report Hamsterdam December 26, 2015 5:00 PM GMT
Easy pickings. I'm just going to read up on the Premium Charge.
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