Football
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Take Villa vs West Ham...
Villa laughably are faves to win the match at 2.7
West Ham 2.9
Draw 3.3
I see the draw as the most likely result but is this a matter of my opinion of a matter of fact? I don't get how draws are priced up in matches like these where there's no strong favourite.
Villa laughably are faves to win the match at 2.7
West Ham 2.9
Draw 3.3
I see the draw as the most likely result but is this a matter of my opinion of a matter of fact? I don't get how draws are priced up in matches like these where there's no strong favourite.
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Replies: 23
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Because the chances of an even number of goals being equally divided is always going to be less than 33%
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Back the draw every week and you will see why at the end of the year, just because two teams are evenly matched in ability does not mean they will share the goals. Only time draw was not the outsider was in Serie A in the 90's where goals were really scarce, used to go off at around 6/4
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I remember a few years back in one of Cordoba's last league games of the season the draw went off at 3/10, it was a very bizarre game where Cordoba had already qualified for promotion and the opposition had benefits themselves for a draw so they basically decided the fate of the match themselves before kick-off!! Of course it finished 0-0
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That is Cordoba of Spain btw, and it was actually published in the papers the night before if I'm not mistaken, not 100% on that tho
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Sorry, done my research, it was actually Celta Vigo who needed just a draw for promotion while Cordoba would gain a play off with a draw, either way I wish I knew back then, I would have had my house on it
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draws are very hard to predict
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correct prices or not in the betting world punters dont like betting on a result which over 90 mins you can be correct for 89 mins 59 secs and still lose, doesnt sit well with your average punter
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how long into the 90 minutes does it take for the draw to become favourite if no goals are scored ?
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OBVIOUSLY DEPENDS on the odds beforehand,top teams at home obviously stay fav beyond the hour mark,
a question ive asked many times on here do the in running odds run in tandem with the pre match odds or how the teams are performing if it stays level |
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For a draw to be favourite requires (i) a very low match total goal expectancy and (ii) 2 almost equally matched teams. A goal expectancy for both teams of about 0.95 will result in all 3 match outcomes having about the same probability of occurrence (ie 3.0 home/away/draw), and less than this can give a situation in which the draw is favourite. Apart from fixed end of season matches such conditions will only be found in Leagues with incredibly low average goal rates eg French second tier and Argentina, and in the knockout stages of tournaments where in recent history goals have been scarce due to teams playing in a very conservative manner due to enhanced fear of losing. As an example in the last World Cup, i recall the Italy England game being not far off 3.0 for all outcomes. The most recent African Nations cup finals also saw a couple of games with this setup.
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what if 2 teams play each other who score 3 goals a game,draws dont automaticaly mean low scoring games
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isnt it always been said that been 2 in front is a dangerous score
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Given that this is an Exchange site, I wonder how many times the draw trades 50% lower than SP.
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People over thinking this....maybe it's because punters are more like to back a team to win than back a draw which is a relatively boring bet. Of course over time you would be down....but that takes into account games where there's strong favourites.
I don't think draws are hard to predict at all, high scoring draws yes, low scoring draws no. 0-0 or 1-1 in this fixture. |
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Stats mate ...
Draws in Prem games so far this season = 28% ! Much easier results to call....for me anyway ! |
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there is money to be made betting premier league draws if you know which matters to do it on
sorry I know that is vague but if I told you I'd have to kill you  but andriy is spot on with his posts here |
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*matches
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the weight of money that bookmakers take on both sides would be unmanageable if the draw was fav
most punters want to bet teams to win |
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with home or aways..you could be out of sight mostly any time in the match...with draws you carnt.so the % must be less with draws.
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People keep mentioning the draw being priced as it is because people like to back wins, it has nothing to do with this, the prices are a reflection of likely hood of it happening, if the price was wrong then it would be smashed into straight away.
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Easy pickings. I'm just going to read up on the Premium Charge.
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