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the istabraq years
16 Mar 15 16:30
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Date Joined: 12 Jun 05
| Topic/replies: 651 | Blogger: the istabraq years's blog
Hi..can anyone help me here. Ive backed Bournemouth on the Hcap +18 but stupidly threw the listing to check how its going..I assumed im in as there top but ive been told that Brenford might be edging it..can anyone tell me roughly what there hcap was ??..I can only see them as dangers....thanks in advance
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Report kenilworth March 16, 2015 4:18 PM GMT
Perhaps those who you placed the bet with
would be able to furnish you with the info
you require. GL from me as I am a B'mouth
supporter!
Report tobermory March 16, 2015 6:01 PM GMT
Anyone who still has the RP pullout should be able to help . I have it but not at home right now. Would need to know which bookie.
Report the istabraq years March 16, 2015 6:10 PM GMT
thanks, I always keep it but god knows where ive put it....firm was the tote/betfred
Report cluosou March 16, 2015 6:26 PM GMT
betfair market shows bmouth as 1.3 favs but several teams trading at 10 2 1 or less so all to play for
Report reekmakeek March 16, 2015 6:51 PM GMT
think brentford were +23
Report the istabraq years March 16, 2015 7:00 PM GMT
ok, cheers everyone
Report TheGoddess March 16, 2015 7:13 PM GMT
If your on with Fred, Bournemouth currently 2pts ahead of Brentford, Middlesboro 3rd 5pts behind 87 /8 / 82
Report Clarky9 March 17, 2015 7:49 AM GMT
Kept the pullout (professional):

Betfred:

Cardiff scratch
Derby +1
Fulham +3
Wigan +5
Norwich +5
Watford +9
N Forest +12
Blackburn +11
Middlesbrough +13
Wolves +16
Reading +12
Brighton +16
Bournemouth +18
Ipswich +18
Bolton +16
Leeds +22
Sheff Weds +20
Brentford +23
Huddersfield +26
Charlton +26
Birmingham +28
Rotherham +28
Millwall +29
Blackpool +34
Report Clarky9 March 17, 2015 7:57 AM GMT
Totals:

Bournemouth 87
Brentford 85
Middlesbrough 82
Ipswich 79
Watford 78
Wolves 75
Birmingham 75
Charlton 74
Norwich 71
Leeds 70
Sheff Weds 70
Huddersfield 69
Rotherham 68
Derby 68
N Forest 66
Blackburn 65
Bolton 60
Millwall 60
Brighton 57
Blackpool 56
Reading 56
Cardiff 47
Fulham 43
Wigan 39
Report toffee87 March 17, 2015 10:03 AM GMT
I'm on Brentford but with Viktor who IIRC are not listed in the racing post pullout

They were +24 but I haven't a clue what start anyone else got
Report pushkin99 March 17, 2015 10:39 AM GMT
amazing that with all the goings on Cardiff were scratch................accepting that if they could ever get their act together and with Vincent Tan's money behind them they could become a real force in the premier league.
Report Clarky9 March 18, 2015 1:12 PM GMT
Bournemouth 88
Brentford 88
Middlesbrough 85
Ipswich 82
Watford 81
Wolves 78
Birmingham 75
Charlton 77
Norwich 72
Leeds 70
Sheff Weds 70
Huddersfield 70
Rotherham 68
Derby 68
N Forest 66
Blackburn 65
Millwall 61
Bolton 60
Brighton 58
Blackpool 56
Reading 56
Cardiff 48
Fulham 43
Wigan 39
Report Crisp77 March 18, 2015 1:23 PM GMT
If the handicappers were any good everyone would be on the same points Mischief
Report Jack Hacksaw March 18, 2015 1:47 PM GMT
Always thought this bet was a pain in the arse.

Got to work out value of your pick compared with every other team.

Then got to keep all the betting info i.e. teams and handicaps.

Then got to adjust points totals with handicaps to see where you are.

Then not lose your slip (if shop) or account details (if online) and risk having your account limited in the meantime.

And, then stay alive till the end of the season.
Report kenilworth March 18, 2015 3:07 PM GMT
A ridiculous bet.
Report tobermory March 18, 2015 9:40 PM GMT
why Confused

just have to figure out from previous seasons what the total required is and pick the team you think most likely to hit it
Report kenilworth March 18, 2015 10:22 PM GMT
It's the football equivalent of betting in a 24 horse
handicap race, that is ridiculous.
Report tobermory March 18, 2015 10:25 PM GMT
there will always be some value runners
Report forgotmyusername March 18, 2015 10:38 PM GMT
Toffee87, if you had the wager with betvictor they generally update on their site so you can see where you are. Bournemouth were 18, Brentford 24. As for those saying this is a bad bet, each to their own but do think the handicap offers value. Plenty you can rule out each season.
Report kenilworth March 19, 2015 6:10 PM GMT
tobermory, there will only be value with
hindsight especially when the biggest price
of your 24 runners is 16/1, I'm surprised
that you actually give the bet a second glance.
No wonder bookmakers drive about in big cars.
Report tobermory March 19, 2015 8:20 PM GMT
only be value with
hindsight


thtas just saying 'only value if it wins'

prettys sure it's 19/1 the field in the championship

as said above the poor value can be ruled quickly in such markets .eg Chelsea of scratch would need to set a points record to win it , and are the same odds as a relegation candidate that could win the h'cap with 45pts
Report kenilworth March 19, 2015 11:42 PM GMT
eg Chelsea of scratch would need to set a points record to win it , and are the same odds as a relegation candidate that could win the h'cap with 45pts

I believe ManU may have won it 2 seasons ago, how does that fit
with with Chelsea his season?

tobermory, it's a mug bet and you lose credibility
in defending it, even it was 20/1 the field. Hopefully
you will put up your picks in August for next season.
Anyone can pick the value after the event, perhaps even
So'ton in the present season? Anyone can see that, didn't
you??
Report tobermory March 20, 2015 1:42 AM GMT
United didn't win it off scratch , no one ever has far as i know . Also it was the lowest total ever that season (91?) .Typically 3 or 4 teams will get that much .

To say there can't be any value because the bookies have an overround is an arguement against betting on anything at all!
Report kenilworth March 20, 2015 8:43 AM GMT
Betting against an overound of around 25% is
a cast iron reason for not betting in such
markets and anyone attempting to, knows very
little about betting IMO.
Report Nirnaeth Arnoediad March 20, 2015 11:11 PM GMT
So you would not have a bet in a four horse race with an over round of 104% Confused
Report kenilworth March 20, 2015 11:29 PM GMT
Probably not unless atleast one of the runners
was too big a price. What has your example to
do with 24 runner handicaps?
Report Baz March 21, 2015 12:08 AM GMT
The fixation with the overround is bizarre. Accepted, the greater the overround, the less chance of an edge being available. It certainly doesn't eliminate the chance and to quote the overround as 25% when there are so many different Companies offering different handicaps pre season, naturally substantially reduces that figure. 25% is the figure if you are limited to one bookmaker.
There are sports where I struggle to ever find an edge (and very rarely if ever bet) but that doesn't mean that I'm arrogant enough to believe that nobody can find value if their approach to that sport/market is better than mine.
The coupons are printed at a time when pre season matches are ongoing (if not before), transfers are being made and managers changed.
Tobermory mentions the advantage that the outsiders in the Prem hcap have over the favs. I am aware of that myself and this also helps in finding an edge.
Report tobermory March 21, 2015 5:52 AM GMT

Mar 21, 2015 -- 12:29AM, kenilworth wrote:


Probably not unless atleast one of the runnerswas too big a price. What has your example to do with 24 runner handicaps?


The overround is the same: 1% extra per runner . Chances of finding value the same .

Report Clarky9 March 21, 2015 6:55 AM GMT
Can get some great value in handicap betting. I regularly make a profit in the flat jockey title handicap for example Excited
Report kenilworth March 21, 2015 8:16 AM GMT
You guys stick to the 16/1 the field 24 runners
and I will stick to the 4% over round, 4
runner races, and see who has the most money
left after a 100 bets.
Report Baz March 21, 2015 12:39 PM GMT
If you price a selection @ 9/2 and you can back it at 7/1, what difference does the overround make? I price everything I bet on, the overround is irrelevant to me, albeit if I'm betting on a market priced to 150%, there is less chance of finding an edge. Less chance but not no chance and many opportunities are missed by disregarding markets due to overrounds.
I don't bet on horses at all but people are able to bet in both 4 runner races and large handicaps, despite the 24 runner handicap mentioned bearing no relevance to a 20 runner Prem Hcap, where different coupons have different handicap starts.
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