Who are you backing in the HANDICAP MARKETS this season?

Ahead of the Racing Post pullout next week, some stats for you to consider:

HANDICAP RESULTS FOR THE LAST 5 SEASONS USING “AVERAGE” HANDICAP

PREMIERSHIP (6 SEASONS STATS)

2008-09 Stoke(P) 52 Fulham 44 Liverpool 9 Man Utd Scr (Final League Positions Were: 12 / 7 / 2 / 1)
2009-10 Birmingham(P) 48 Tottenham 22 Aston Villa 26 Blackburn 40 (Final League Positions Were: 9 / 4 / 6 / 10)
2010-11 Blackpool(P) 52 WBA(P) 47 Bolton 40 Fulham 37 (Final League Positions Were: 19 / 11 / 14 / 8)
2011-12 Newcastle 36 Swansea(P) 45 Norwich(P) 45 Man City 5 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 11 / 12 / 1)
2012-13 Man Utd 3 Everton 27 Swansea 41 WBA 39 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 9 / 8)
2013-14 Liverpool 16 Everton 25 Crystal Palace(P) 49 Southampton 35 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 5 / 11 / 8)

Only 1 scratch team made the top 4 in the 6 season sample.
6 of the 24 possible place positions were filled by one of the big 6 – Average 1 per season - 3 Premiership winners making the top 4.
7 teams promoted to the division from the previous season have figured, including 3 who have won, so it is quite probable bookmakers are underestimating their abilities, so keep an eye on Leicester, QPR and Burnley.
Most likely finishing position to hit the top 4 of the handicap is to finish 6th to 12th in the league.

CHAMPIONSHIP

2009-10 Newcastle(R) Scr Blackpool 29 WBA(R) 1 Nottm Forest 12 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 2 / 3)
2010-11 Norwich(P) 11 Swansea 14 QPR 5 Cardiff 11 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 3 / 1 / 4 – top 4 in league)
2011-12 Southampton(P) 14 Reading 10 Watford 28 Blackpool(R) 14 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 1 / 11 / 5)
2012-13 Crystal Palace 27 Hull 15 Watford 17 Cardiff 11 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 2 / 3 / 1)
2013-14 Burnley 24 Leicester 6 Derby 15 Blackburn 13 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 1 / 3 / 8)

The top 2 – figured in all 5 seasons and teams finishing in the top 6 filled 18 of the possible 20 place positions.
Only 1 scratch team made the top 4, Newcastle who collected over 100 points in 2009-10.
3 teams relegated from the previous season and 2 teams promoted to the division from the previous season made the top 4, both winning the handicap.

EXCLUDING WATFORD IN 2011-2012 AND BLACKBURN LAST SEASON ALL POSITIONS FILLED BY TEAMS FINISHING IN THE TOP 6.

DIVISION 1

2009-10  Swindon 24 Norwich(R) 6 Millwall 13 Charlton(R) 8 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 1 / 3 / 4)
2010-11  Brighton 12 Exeter(P) 32 Bournemouth(P) 28 Rochdale 31 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 8 / 6 / 9)
2011-12  Charlton 4 Stevenage(P) 26 Sheff Utd(R) 5 Sheff Wed 2 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 3 / 2)
2012-13  Yeovil 28 Walsall 31 L Orient 27 Doncaster(R) 10 (Final League Positions Were: 4 / 9 / 7 / 1)
2013-14    Leyton Orient 19 Wolves Scr Brentford 6 Rotherham(P) 12 (Final League Positions Were: 3 / 1 / 2 / 4)

The divisional champions figured in all 5 seasons and teams finishing in the top 9 filled all 20 place positions.
Only 1 scratch team has made the top 4.
4 teams promoted to the division from the previous season and 5 teams relegated from the previous season  have figured.

NO TEAM FINISHING OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 9 FIGURED AT ALL IN THE 5 SEASON SAMPLE.

DIVISION 2

2009-10   Aldershot 25 Notts Co Scr Bournemouth 10 Rochdale 11 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 2 / 3)
2010-11   Accrington 26 Bury 9 Chesterfield 5 Shrewsbury 9 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 2 / 1 / 4)
2011-12   Cheltenham 31 Swindon(R) 6 Torquay 17 Southend 17 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 5 / 4)
2012-13   Burton 27 Port Vale 18 Gillingham 12 Cheltenham 16 (Final League Positions Were: 4 / 3 / 1 / 5)
2013-14    Rochdale 14 Scunthorpe(R) 10 York 19 Dagenham 28 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 3 / 7 / 9)

Teams finishing in the top 6 in the league filled 18 of the 20  place positions. Only Notts Co, under Sven, made it to the top as a scratch team. No promoted team has figured and only 2 relegated teams were placed.

90% of POSITIONS IN THE SAMPLE WERE FILLED BY TEAMS FINISHING IN THE TOP 6.

CONFERENCE

2009-10   Stevenage 7 Rushden 17 York 15 Salisbury 31 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 4 / 5 / 12)
2010-11   Crawley 5 AFC Wimbledon 17 Wrexham 17 Fleetwood(P) 17 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 2 / 4 / 5)
2011-12   Southport 33 Wrexham 11 Fleetwood 2 Gateshead 25 (Final League Positions Were: 7 / 2 / 1 / 8)
2012-13   Newport 22 Dartford(P) 39 Kidderminster 14 Hyde(P) 42 (Final League Positions Were: 3 / 8 / 2 / 18)
2013-14    Braintree 28 Luton 1 Salisbury(P) 33 Nuneaton 34 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 12 / 13)

Teams finishing in the top 8 in the league filled 16 of the possible 20 place positions. No scratch team in any of the top 4's (although Luton were Scratch in places, Forest Green's handicap average was lower) .
3 league winners have figured in the top 4.
4 promoted team have figured but no relegated team has been placed.

NO POSITIONS FILLED BY RELEGATED TEAMS.