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mesmerised
19 Jun 14 23:46
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Date Joined: 10 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 41,200 | Blogger: mesmerised's blog
Italy will beat Costa Rica

Italy would still not be guaranteed top spot to avoid Columbia

England will beat Costa Rica

It will all come down to the Italy-Uruguay game which runs simultaneously

Joe Hart and James Milner will be on the phone to their old mate Balotelli asking for a favour, Balotelli will oblige whilst at the same time geeing up his team mates, Italy beat Uruguay. They are the much better team after all and players still wanting to impress.

England come back in from 130 ready to lay off at around 25's

Job done.

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Replies: 44
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 19 Jun 14 23:49
Why do they call you mugmerised?
By:
judorick
When: 19 Jun 14 23:49
a lot of assumptions in there

no team has ever lost two games and qualified

130 is very very short, about 2500 would be fair
By:
kincsem
When: 19 Jun 14 23:53
Ghana lost one game and are 900s.
England lost two games and are 130s.
Why are England value, or better value?
By:
duffy
When: 19 Jun 14 23:53
^
and even then you'd want to be getting on e/w.Wink
By:
mesmerised
When: 19 Jun 14 23:54
If Italy lose to Uruguay by a certain scoreline, they could lose top spot to them

If Costa Rica beat England by a certain scoreline and Italy lose to Uruguay they could lose top spot to them (it's decide by goal difference)

What part of that are you struggling with Eeternaloptomist, at least I can spell my name right.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 20 Jun 14 00:01
I'm struggling with your concept of value. Of course it is theoretically possible that Italy win both games but if they spank Costa Rica they will probably rest half the team against Uruguay and both will be happy to play out a draw. Even if they beat Costa Rica 1-0 I don't see either team busting s gut because they don't have to. Then you are presupposing that if Italy do this almighty favour to England then they will beat Costa Rica.

I've given your proposition of a punt some serious consideration but aaaammmmmmm ooooooooooot.

You didn't answer my question though. Why do they call you mugmerised?
By:
jesusofsuburbia
When: 20 Jun 14 00:04
way to short ur right
By:
jesusofsuburbia
When: 20 Jun 14 00:04
lay it free money
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 20 Jun 14 00:06
I refer you to kincsem's post whch summed it up:

Ghana lost one game and are 900s.
England lost two games and are 130s.
Why are England value, or better value?
By:
TheBetterBettor
When: 20 Jun 14 00:06
....is that at paddy power?
By:
mesmerised
When: 20 Jun 14 00:08
Who said it was value? I don't remember mentioning the opening post that it was value, value was never mentioned. I mentioned what might happen.

Uruguay will go all out to beat Italy knowing England may slip up against Costa Rica and Costa go through instead, in fact they will no doubt have this mentality to win, leaving them open to counter attacks, and if Uruguay do beat Italy by a certain scoreline with Italy resting half their first team then they may lose that top spot to them - meaning Itlay will have a much tougher second round match. It's simple stuff.

As to why a few simple minded souls who are easily would up call me mugmerised, the answer is my friend I don't particularly give a rats arse.Happy
By:
judorick
When: 20 Jun 14 00:11
England come back in from 130 ready to lay off at around 25's

Job done.



you are taking the piss right? didn't mention value?

fair enough, but you do claim that England will shorten to 25

and therefore, by implication, 130 is a value price iyo

Crazy
By:
marychain1
When: 20 Jun 14 00:12
I wouldn't back England at 130 if they were in the final against Iran
By:
mesmerised
When: 20 Jun 14 00:17
I said England right now are trading at 130's

I said England will be at 25's if they qualify 2nd

That's stating prices, not stating if it's value. It's what you can do, whether you want to, is another matter altogether.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 20 Jun 14 00:18
If the point of this thread wasn't to point out a value bet with some kind of mistake in the pricing what was it about?
By:
Get On MASSIVE
When: 20 Jun 14 00:18
I agree with OP to a point.

Italy could beat Costa Rica tomorrow and still not qualify. They will take the Uruguay seriously as a 2-0 defeat could see them finish third and eliminated.

I'd rather back England to qualify at 9's than 130's to win the World Cup as that would imply they'll be 14's to win it if they make the last 16 which is too short IMO.

For a team that has lost their first two games I think England are in a very good position. If the so called whipping boys of Costa Rica lose their remaining two games (with one of those games by two goals) as expected pre tournament and Italy beat Uruguay then England qualify. It's far from over.
By:
jesusofsuburbia
When: 20 Jun 14 00:23
wouldn't touch it with a barge pole if u hang around this thread u might get nicked tomorrow for obtaining money under false pretence leave now while u still got ur freedom
By:
judorick
When: 20 Jun 14 00:25
if you read your own OP, you will see that you state

1. Italy will beat CR
2. Eng will beat CR
3. Milner and Hart will phone Balotelli
4. Balotelli will oblige

you then conclude that Eng will shorten from 130 to 25

there's no wriggling out of it with your weasly worded reply below "That's stating prices, not stating if it's value."

bollox, you clearly want to make out Eng will qualify

they won't
By:
247lol
When: 20 Jun 14 00:27
England were utter s**te and a lot of that has to go down to a clueless manager who couldn't inspire a bunch of pre school infants.
Did that apology of a manager ever get up out of his seat once to scream orders at his team ?no passion whatsoever.
Everyone to a man knew he was not the guy to manage England yet he still gets picked ! unreal
Everyone to man knew Gerrard was past it yet he still gets picked ! unreal
Everyone to a man knew Rooney was sh*te and is just not committed but he still gets picked ! unreal
The defence was awful against Italy the reason why they lost and everyone to man knew that yet they learnt nothing and were even worse against Uruguay in fact it was one of the most embarrassing defensive displays by England EVER.
"England will attack" says Hodgson but for the first 45 minutes they plodded around the pitch utterly oblivious to the seriousness of the situation.
A lot of England's failure is down to the totally uninspiring manager who is obviously tactically clueless and picked he the wrong players.
They are out end of.
By:
247lol
When: 20 Jun 14 00:29
he picked (even)
By:
marychain1
When: 20 Jun 14 00:31
It's not Hodgson's fault he's just shuffling sh1t. I don't think he's the best manager in the world, but managing these useless thick (unts has seen off better managers than him and not even Mourinho could get a tune out of them.
By:
mesmerised
When: 20 Jun 14 00:32
bollox, you clearly want to make out Eng will qualify


ffs, not much get's past you does it, that's the point, Detective JudoPlank.


I'm making the point that England are not out? radio stations and forum are full up with people saying England are out and it's all doom and gloom, I'm highlighting the scenario's which makes it clear England can still finish second and stating the price, this is about qualification first and betting second,  if you read the match thread you will see I was more than happy to lose my money LAYING england tonight, betting here is secondary and you're going off on a tangent

Keep on track, and for the rest of you, believe Cool
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 20 Jun 14 00:32
You can't polish a turd.
By:
jesusofsuburbia
When: 20 Jun 14 00:35
I think if u give this squad to mr redknap we would at least be more exciting to watch might not have won the group or either game but we would of lost closer to 5-4 then 2-1 at least he sets his teams up with a tempo about them
By:
Get On MASSIVE
When: 20 Jun 14 00:37
They're not out, end of, at all.

You're talking utter nonsense.

They need three results to go for them. All three results will be favorite on here and two of those will be odds on shots. end of
By:
penzance
When: 20 Jun 14 00:37
mesmerised,I hope you're right m8,
Costa Rica however beat the team
which beat us,3-1.We're not good
enough,simple as that.
By:
marychain1
When: 20 Jun 14 00:39
The reason Costa Rica beat Uruguay was because of the heat. And because they had no Suarez. England are gash, but beating Costa Rica in a cooler venue shouldn't be beyond them.

Whether Italy can do their bit is a different matter.
By:
anfeild
When: 20 Jun 14 01:01
People calling for harry etc are wrong. England simply are not good enough. The prem and sky are just creating a myth and england players are just not techically good enough. They simple cant keep the ball. The english midfield tonight simply could not control the game. Its not the manager tactics etc its just the players are not good enough. Coaching has to change along with the premership. If teh premership continues the way its going england wont qualify for tournaments in the future. 32% of the prem is english now and that will only get worse.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 20 Jun 14 01:07
The above post is right. English Rugby was heading the same way but thankfully the game is structured in a way to help get the best out of the national team. They arrested and reversed the trend so that we are producing quality English qualified players in all positions. The original idea was supposed to be that the Premiership would benefit the national team. The clubs have grown ever more powerful and the national team ever weaker. We might maon and belly ache every couple of years when we get pi55ed all over in a big competition but as a nation we have no interest in putting the national game at the pinnacle and working around it and this is the result.
By:
247lol
When: 20 Jun 14 01:22
The truth

Hart- Does make some good saves but on Italy's 2nd goal only 2 players  drifting past the far post could connect yet he fails to cover that area and again tonight nearly gets caught by his near post with an in swinging corner twice ! obviously never learns              2
Johnson - Had some stinkers in the warm up games but actually played better to a degree in England's first 2 matches, problem here is he gets forward and starts thinking he's England's main striker and starts trying to dribble around the opposition so breaking down the England move.   2
Baines - Generally reliable but the whole defence has been dire here 2
Henderson - May have had a decent season at Liverpool but didn't show up here   2
Cahill - Like others in defence just not alert to the dangers 2
Jagielka - poor 1
Sterling - After a great game against Italy couldn't make any impression against Uruguay 6
Gerrard - The whole world knew he would be a liability and so it proved absolutely dire and well past his sell by date  1
Sturridge - By far England's best player and one of the few to come out of the tournament with any credit  7
Rooney - Scored tonight but realistically could and should have scored a hatrick. 300 k a week ? you must be joking 1
Welbeck - Never turned up here and that's hardly surprising had a bad season and been out of form for some time 1

Hodgson - Hardly the most inspiring person on planet earth picks Welbeck who has been badly out of form for ages and picks Gerrard when your granny would probably show more speed pulling her knickers back up after a dump. Looks tactically inept and doesn't show any passion from the bench at all.
100% the wrong guy for the job  1
By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 20 Jun 14 01:38
Italy beat Costa Rica and are virtually guaranteed top spot, Italy play a 2nd XI vs Urugauy and lose or draw 0-1, 0-0, or 1-1
Layers job done
By:
Get On MASSIVE
When: 20 Jun 14 01:59
What if Italy beat Costa Rica 1-0 and play their second XI against Uruguay and lose 2-0?
Costa Rica beat England and Italy don't qualify.

Italy can't qualify tomorrow no matter what the result, they'll still have to take Uruguay seriously so there'll be no second XI.
By:
Hamsterdam
When: 20 Jun 14 02:04
Suarez looked crocked at the end of the match too. Uruguay are naff without him.
By:
Winner_Winner_Chicken_Diner
When: 20 Jun 14 02:19
The biggest assumption is the whipping boys beating Costa Rica.
By:
donny osmond
When: 20 Jun 14 08:16
about 8/1 to make last 16

then 25/1 from there

about 235/1

imo
By:
James424
When: 20 Jun 14 08:49
Betfair odds - Italy 1.55 to beat CR, England 1.65 to beat CR, Italy 2.66 to beat Uruguay giving accumulated odds of 6.8 for all 3 but CR have to lose one of the games by more than one goal so odds on England qualifying a bit higher than that.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 20 Jun 14 08:52
Joel Campbell will knock them out.
By:
Asparagus Man
When: 20 Jun 14 10:19
Frankly having lost their first 2 games England have about a good chance as is it is reasonably possible to have to qualify in a 2 from 4 group situation.

I'd agree that their to qualify price is stacks better than the outright price.

Neither with a bargepole for me though.
By:
penzance
When: 20 Jun 14 18:54
Costa Rica no mugs!
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