Football
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24 Jan 14
23:05
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Date Joined:
18 Apr 03
Brenda quote
'"We are trying to maintain the effort in our work and it could be an opportunity for our young talented players."
not sure how much the pool want this, the win is 1.38
Under 2.5 is 2.96
thoughts?
'"We are trying to maintain the effort in our work and it could be an opportunity for our young talented players."
not sure how much the pool want this, the win is 1.38
Under 2.5 is 2.96
thoughts?
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Replies: 107
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I make Liverpool's 1st team 1.44 for this so wouldn't fancy 1.38 if it is youth players
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I made the 1st team 1.41. You're miles out.
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I would like to know how you "make" them any price? Odds compilation is unbelievably complicated but I'd genuinely like to know even some of the variables people put stock on when it comes to teams from differing divisions. Would you class a mid table championship team in average form the same way you would a struggling bottom of the prem team (west ham) for instance?
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For the record, I think liverpool are too short at the moment just from experience. I think there will be a mixture tomorrow. Probably Moses, Aspas, Alberto and inexperienced full backs. That to me is 1.57 Liverpool minimum.
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Ask Tobermory, he seems to have a formula, I was merely talking the pi$$.
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Come on then Tobe...spill?
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I have ratings for teams and another table that converts the difference in ratings to odds.
I'd rate a bottom 6 premier league team much better than mid table Championship The variables are mainly team news and this can be factored in by lowering the rating when a weaker than usual line up is expected .Liverpool fielding half their youth team is a pretty big variable so hard to assess how much to drop their rating but certainly they should be a lot bigger than their normal odds if thats whats happening I expect if this is the case there will be a big drift and most likely a leave alone match |
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How often do your ratings differ by a considerable amount? Obviously the holy grail is finding odds that are wildly different from what you would call true odds. Do you make a good return on investment? Sorry for all the questions. I'm a trader and deal in odds movement and I have a considerable %age of my bank laying liverpool at 1.37 as that seems ludicrously low. I'm **** one but the floor can't be much lower than that IMO :-|
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When I say differ, I mean to the actual odds...
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Actually no i don't make a good return .Or at least haven't for a good while
 Was very good for several years . It's tricky to get the ratings right of course. I had about a year when i didn't bet so much and when i returned to it was starting from scratch and just didn't go so well . I persevere with the ratings though ,as it is the only way to do it right IMO |
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Well for what it's worth, I look at oddsportal for minute by minute odds updates. Use my own spreadsheet to crunch the correct score market into 1 X 2 odds (to see if they differ wildly to predict odds movement). And also react to odds that just look plain wrong or odds that swing wildly very quickly (as they will normally swing back at least a little before settling). That's my trading basis and long term i do ok. If I didn't withdraw so much I'd have a nice nest egg lol.
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When I say differ wildly, I mean differ to the ACTUAL 1 X 2 market.
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Not so often really . But when they do these days it seems to me that has it wrong !
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What do you mean by "that" has it wrong?
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Well when i was last doing it every week the odds i thought best value didn't look too good with hindsight at end of season.
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We're singing from different hymn sheets. I look at odds that I am quite sure will change (mostly in the short term) for a green up using the correct score market compared with the 1X2. I mainly deal with the draw though as you can take the emotion away from a team winning and use experience in what the floor and ceiling is in the varying leagues. For instance, two teams that have a coin toss odds wise in french 2nd division average 3.15-3.2 for the draw. In the Dutch 2nd string you're talking 3.8-3.9 average. I also use the O/U 2.5 as support as generally the lower the odds for unders correlates with lower X odds.
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Yeah , pre match trading is looking at what the prices will be rather than what they ought to be .
I did have a go at that , and did win a bit , though slow going. With this game all depends on team news . Wouldn't put much into Rogers comments as he is quite cagey. When i was doing this i'd always close the bet green or red the night before as team news can swing it massively. |
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I hear you. The thing is if I close it now, it's gonna be red. I think even a "Strong" team is gonna be relatively weak. The odds are all about Suarez IMO. With a Champions League 6 pointer on Tuesday, do you really want to risk/tire your only world class player against Bournemouth?!
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I think you're probably right there .
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Overnight , the win gone from 1.38 to 1.34 , unders 2.96 to 3.05 which looks to be my bet
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Bournemouth will slaughter these mugs ffs....
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One thing about laying Liverpool pre-off is that with a few exceptions they nearly always tighten before KO. You can make a decent few quid just riding that train.
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Not this time, getting shorter by the minute. Team news?
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think cj means back before and then lay prior to kick off
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LFC team v afcbournemouth: Jones, Kelly, Toure, Skrtel, Cissokho, Gerrard, Henderson, Coutinho, Moses, Sturridge, Suarez
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over4.5 it is then lol
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Gerrard in the holding role same as first half v Villa
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3-1 bournemouth or 1-5 liverpool gl
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suprised suarez to start, with Everton on tuesday
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Only bet here for me is a penalty at 3.65 for £100, bearing in mind the fitness of Liverpool v Bournemouth and suarez and bournemouth tiring over time and becoming clumsy and probably already 2/3-0 down and dont give a ****. Very hard to guage how many goals will be scored because Brenda might take players off early with the games upcoming and the players might take their foot off the grass. Good luck all and me
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really small bets on booking pts 45 or more 9/2 and very small red card 8/1
coutino man of match 8/1 |
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not one to back 1.3 but i can't see anything other than liverpool win by 2 goals
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2-1 @ 40
Ritchie anytime @ 7.4 |
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I'm extremely confident Bournemouth will score here. Ritchie will tear Sissoko a new one down Liverpool's left
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BTTS @ 1.83
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ARE LIVERPOOL IN RED AND BLACK STRIPES
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Did u get over the Sunderland disaster the other night BBC2
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