Who is the value to win the World Cup and why?

I like Germany, but that game they were 4-0 up against Sweden then ended 4-4 sticks in my mind. Hard to see them not bottling it

Uruguay at 29s looks a bit of value there like clarky says ,  easy group to get out of too

the germans can never beat the italians

Uruguay, ill lay anyones money on Uruguay theyre ****. What strong recent form is this? when they needed a playoff to qualify? The usual suspects will be there Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy and Argentina, the winner comes from them. Brazil and Germany being the main 2 for me.

Spain the value now they have Costa on board.

Backed Uruguay when they had to face a playoff. Against Jordan. Tricky to figure out how that price was going to move.

If Costa establishes himself, Spain could be the stand out again, though Xavi and Xabi are fading. Chile are my other outside sniff.

Yeah, Chile a very good bet I think.

Though obviously they got a duff draw.

Colombia also a decent outside chance, with a much, much better draw than Chile.

Holland @33/1 are a bigger price than England & Uruguay . Rather better than both IMO

Brazil.

The tournament has not been too well received by many in Brazil, people think its badly organised and could fall flat on its face and there will be pressure on the side to start well. However, like the London Olympics once it gets going the country will get behind them and they will be extremely hard to stop.

Players like Luiz and Ramires are twice the player in their national jerseys, and massively popular.

There are major question marks about all of the other favourites - Argentina (defence, Messi fitness/form), Germany (climate), Spain (Xavi/Iniesta getting on).

The one I'd throw in at a massive price would be Ecuador, but Brazil will walk it to the semis and be odds on by then

Couldnt back Holland with stolen money after the Euros

Think Germany will win but Italy are huge price

Italy are very good value at 30.
I ignore form and look at history when betting on the World Cup.
When any of Brazil (3.4/1), Argentina (5/1), Germany (6/1), Italy (29/1) get out of line pricewise I back them.
Brazil, Germany, Italy are the big teams, the teams to back.  Argentina a distant fourth.

I'm with mary. Brazil all the way, with a saver on Argentina. Italy at odds as a trading option perhaps but now way they win. The cup will stay in South America

Greece at 320s

France - 25/1 - they blow  bit hot and cold but should walk their
group and looks like an easy game in the first knockout stage.

chile, becaue they,re a good team. back to lay job.

brazil will win it, the most obvious winner since 1970, murdered spain last time they played them, no one to come near at the moment, outsider? Italy or Greece, who will prob be very hard to beat, and beat someone decent on pens all the way to semis or something

Greece lol

Better taking Bosnia who have a good chance of getting out their group

they battered Greece 3-1, could have been 7-1

a lot of the european teams wont like the humidity, and the heat. that will stop most of them, spain maybe not. sth american team will win it

Spain are the value for me, especially out of the 4 favourites,  when you consider their recent tournament history. Yes some of their players are getting on but they will have so many options in their squad. Can't see why they're a higher price than Germany tbh. Also think Portugal and Russia could go well at bigger odds but will wait til closer to see friendlies,  fitness etc.

No way will Spain do it this time round. Xavi & Iniesta are different class but past it and none of the up-and-coming midfielders are fit to lace their boots.

The WC is a tournament for the usual suspects. Horses for courses, but this is a South American course and no European nation has ever become champs there.

Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay.

To be fair, its a sample size of 2

Spain have Fabregas, Delefeu, Silva, Mata as back up...

Three wingers and Fabregas ain't gonna replace the two best midfielders of the last 15 years

Spain have no chance

Spain's other midfielders could include Thiago, Busquets, Isco, Javi Martinez, Fabregas, Xabi Alonso, not to mention attacking midfielders already mentioned. They also have an experienced coach and a winning mentality. I understand why people may write them off as too old but I wont be.

Am very confident that Brazil win this.

Thiago - promising
Busquets - totally different type of player to Xavi & Iniesta
Isco - cracing player but much more of a deep forward
Javi Martinez - see Busquets
Fabregas - the nearest they've got but nowhere near as good
Xabi Alonso - quality but will be past it in 2014 in the heat & humidity

none of them are Xavi & Iniesta, who will still be 2 of the 3 if fit, but they are well on the wane, and by next summer will be more so.

The concern I have about Spain is not so much doubts about their squad (though fair points), it is to do with their draw.  In Group B alongside Holland and Chile, winning this group or even qualifing is far from certain. If they were to qualify as group runners up Brazil are their likely last 16 opponents.

Japan are a huge price, if they could defend i would fancy them against anyone.

Chile and Uruguay, weather will be a huge factor, nothing the Spanish or Italians will be use to. The weather is not just hot it is the humidity that is the key issue.

If humidity is going to be such a crucial factor, then I'll go for the team that is likely to have the lion's share of possession in each of their games.  It's not nearly as tiring a game when you have the ball.

Spain.

Fair point.

Anyone that thinks that Spain will have most possession and will be the best team should rewatch the Confed Cup final

the reason they generally have the most possession is that they have (had) the best midfielders of our generation. That won't be true in 2014. I promise.

No intention here to go off topic so don't give me a hard time just cos I am Scottish!  The temperature, humidity and possession of the ball are my main reasons for not fancying England.  They simply don't have the depth and quality in the squad to keep hold of the ball for long periods.  Not enough possession means chasing and in these conditions that will be very tough going.

Spain have won the last three major tournaments and are 8/1! Yes 8/1!

Confed Cup was basically a glorified friendly tournament, meant nothing

Regarding climate, the variation in Brazil is marked. In the north, near the equator, heat and humidity will indeed be vital factors. In other areas these will not be nearly so important. Remember that Brazil is a very large country. Over 2,600 miles E-W, Over 2,700 miles N-S.

Europe could fit into Brazil!

If we all think humidity will play a part...is it safe to say that there will be many late goals? hmm

Until now no national team has won world cup on the american continent.
I would bet that belgium will be in the semifinals. Brazil is the favourite  to win world cup.

Apart from 1930 and 1978 obviously

yeah, the only country who'll used to the conditions will be BRAZIL and a few Afdrican countries - Spain play their season  in the cool of winter didiots ,not in the middle of July !

so why aren't the African countries favourites along with Brazil ?


ppish

Because they are w a n k

Nigeria have improved over the past few years though

Spains 1st game is against the Netherlands...if they lose that game or even draw, their odds will go up surely

From a marginal strategical and possibly psychological viewpoint, Chile may be in the best position in the Spanish group.  Let's assume Chile beat Australia in their first game. Spain and Holland may decide that the damage limitation of a draw in their first game clash is preferable to losing.

& when Spain beat Holland they'll shorten to 6s

Dec 24, 2013 -- 10:36AM, marychain1 wrote:

To be fair, its a sample size of 2

I think it's an overblown stat. But it's a bigger sample size of two.

Uruguay won in Uruguay and Brazil; Brazil won in Chile; and Argentina won in Argentina. You can also bend the stats and add Brazil and Argentina winning in Mexico.

Confed Cup was brilliant but all the stadiums were full of Brazil fans which gave them a great advantage. A least this time around you going to have away fans and a large cooperate allocation, so it won't quite be the same.

I think Brazil will win.  And anyone betting on any other team should get a saver on while they are still at 4.4.  For an outside bet, go for Ecuador or Colombia.  Spain past it.  Climate damaging to German style. As for England - hopeless.

If you are trying to find value, look for the ridiculous odds of some national teams like Portugal. 44 for the team with one of the best players in the world and in the top 5 of the best of the world? If Portugal go ahead with strong wins in the group stage, you will see the odds drop for 20's.  I am not saying they will win anything, just looking for value, something that i don't think Brasil at 4's have

Portuguese is the language of Brasil.  This might give Portugal an advantage, and an added incentive to do well.

maghiar 25 Dec 13 11:46 Joined: 03 Dec 11 | Topic/replies: 36 | Blogger: maghiar's blog
Until now no national team has won world cup on the american continent

Insert "European" before "national."

I will be backing Spain at that price, I hope they use younger players rather than the likes of Xavi, cos their play can be a bit stale.

Always thought Argentina looked a bit short.

My pennies are on brazil, they have amazeing home form (apart from that friendly England game). And a pissed off nations not going to be happy about all that dosh being spent on a second home world cup defeat.

Evens (before commission) on a south american nation winning it seems a good price.

Evens (before commission) on a south american nation winning it seems a good price.

Evens (before commission) on a south american nation winning it seems a good price.

The original question was who is the value. While we all fancy Brazil, they're not the value. It has to be Uruguay for me they have a great profile, having got to the semis last time, and now with South American home advantage and the world's best player at his peak. If they can get past England their odds are sure to tumble.

PORTUGAL, why - ronnie,

I like the squad Italy have picked. They have finally stepped away from the old guard and picked young players on form. Its very rare Italy have so many players on form for club teams coming into a tournament, this may be their best form wise.

Lippi in 10 stuck with his 06 squad, many of whom were done or barely kicked a ball for their clubs. With their experience of Brazil last year I think they have a lot of positives at a very generous price

brazil are value if they win it imo. id rather have a 4.0 winner than a 1000.0 loser. id be pretty surprised if one of the south mericans dont win it. wouldnt waste a bean on anybody else personally.

Columbia, mid 40's, weather is going to be brutal so don't like European teams (esp N europe), can't be having Brazil at all as pressure is immense (not just football!) I'm not convinced they are that good and neymar???? Col should win the group easily and hardest route looks like Italy/Ur, Brazil, Germany who will be knackered if they get that far. Falcao to be leading scorer as he has to be if they are going to get near to winning. Easy this innit!

If he plays that is!

Portugal -  because of Ronaldo

England-because of rrony

roooney

WC in South America = South American team, on climate alone. With doubts about Argies + Brazil I have punted the remaining teams for a bit of value: Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador.

Cannot be having ANY European team in the heat and the African nations look poor.

Some of the European sides don't go near anywhere hot. France and Switzerland play all their games all the way to the final in normal/perfect conditions.

Chile don't play any of their group games (at least up to the QF) in hot conditions, and Columbia don't play anywhere hot until at least the QF.

What you should take into consideration first and foremost is which teams will suffer from the heat and which will not, Brazil is a huge country but the southern part of Brazil in June is low 20°c's, it's the north that will be baking hot, God help England and Italy in the middle of a Jungle, the humidity will be more worrying than the heat. Also, imo, there is no great advantage for southern European teams over North European teams when it comes to heat as southern European sides do not play their seasons year in and year out over the summer months in the baking heat, they play from August to May, yes it's warmer than here but it's not massively, so Italy wont have the advantage. Italy and Germany are playing all 3 of their matches in the North.

Then there is travel, France have huge distances to travel, Belgium probably have the shortest travel distance - and all in the south in one of the weaker groups.

Had a ton on England @34  Massive odds   Will have a bit more before start  A draw v Italy whole country goes wild cut to 10 cash in.
Uruguay for a ton in case England play frank.

cant see past Brazil but some great prices after the top four favs

Who is the value to win the World Cup and why?


Clarky9 23 Dec 13 22:48 Joined: 06 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 1,417 | Blogger: Clarky9's blog
I think Spain are a big price at 8.8. Won their last three major tournaments and although some of their key players are getting on, they have plenty of young talent coming through. The heat shouldn't bother them, so I feel they're just too big at 8.8.

Other team that interests me are Uruguay who have the best player in the World up front for them and his strike partner Cavanni isn't half bad either. With conditions to suit, strong recent form and a massive cutting edge up front, they're far too big at 29.0...
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Ronaldo doesn't play for Uruguay

Uruguay will pump Portugal, if they get that far.

Brasil-Argentina-Uruguay-Colombia-Chile-Mexico-Ecuador-Usa will double your money and you will probably get paid before the final.

The Argentina forwards are scary: Messi, Aguero, Higuain, Lavezzi.

The only problem with the Argentina squad is that they have Demichelis in it.

If Falcao is fit then I might add Colombia to the portfolio. Easy group and finished 2nd in qualifying, only 2 points behind Argies.

Demichelis is a good defender and a good footballer. Just needs some legs alongside him or to not play too high a line, which I doubt Argentina will do.

Garay will play alongside him at centre back so the Argies should be ok