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Ok gonna give this a go and keep results to give me liability which is a good way of maintaining discipline.
Bank 100%
stake 10%
compound interest? = yes
i have no minimum odds requirements
i have a strategy for picking selections which i will keep to myself , nothing complexed tho
Bank 100%
stake 10%
compound interest? = yes
i have no minimum odds requirements
i have a strategy for picking selections which i will keep to myself , nothing complexed tho
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Whats your selections for today and why did you jump away from 5.5 bud?
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trying to get matched on the psv game,
im less than impressed with the start to this 'system' so will abandon it @-14.96% i will start a new thread for under 4.5 goals for better value odds imo and also out of my 16 attempts only 3 were over 4.5. a benefit of under 4.5 is that more bookies have the option making it easier to spread the money if and when the bank gets to that size. basically i was taking 1.07 if lucky and most selection didnt get more than 3 goals for under 4.5 im looking at 1.17 and more although if take the strike rate from under 5.5 id be bout even , better than -15% |
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1.PSV - Chernomorets Odesa @1.17
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1.PSV - Chernomorets Odesa @1.17
2.Estoril - Slovan Liberec @1.12 3.Tottenham - Anzhi Makhachkala @1.25 |
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1.PSV - Chernomorets Odesa @1.17 = 1.65%
2.Estoril - Slovan Liberec @1.12 = 1.16% 3.Tottenham - Anzhi Makhachkala @1.25 = -9.89% |
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Good luck with this
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thnks
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4.Otelul Galati v Corona Brasov @1.16
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4.Otelul Galati v Corona Brasov @1.16 = 1.52%
5.Aalen - SV Sandhausen @1.11 |
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4.Otelul Galati v Corona Brasov @1.16 = 1.52%
5.Aalen - SV Sandhausen @1.11 = 1.05% (0-0, nice, will be interesting to see my strike rate for 0-0's over time) |
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last bet of the day
6.Levante v Elche @1.08 |
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6.Levante v Elche @1.08 = 0.76%
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7.
Cottbus - Fortuna Dusseldorf inplay 1-1 @31 mins = @1.34 |
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rest of todays 3 pm matches
8.Cardiff - West Brom 9.Blackburn - Millwall 10.Blackpool - QPR 11.Watford - Sheff Wed 12.Crawley Town - Preston |
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7.Cottbus - Fortuna Dusseldorf inplay 1-1 @31 mins = @1.34 = 3.24%
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8.Cardiff - West Brom @1.14 = 1.32%
9.Blackburn - Millwall @1.09 = -9.87% 10.Blackpool - QPR @1.12 = 0.94% 11.Watford - Sheff Wed @1.22 = 2.24% 12.Crawley Town - Preston @1.11 = 1.09% |
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evening pics
13.Lausanne - Sion @1.1 14.Ceahlaul - Steaua Bucharest @1.13 15.Nantes - Toulouse @1.08 16.Guingamp - Monaco @1.1 |
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13.Lausanne - Sion @1.1 = 0.91%
14.Ceahlaul - Steaua Bucharest @1.13 = 1.2% 15.Nantes - Toulouse @1.08 = 0.74% 16.Guingamp - Monaco @1.1 = 0.92% |
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17.Norwich - Swansea inplay HT 1-1 @1.2
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17.Norwich - Swansea inplay HT 1-1 @1.2 = 1.9%
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rest of todays picks
18.Sevilla v Ath Bilbao @1.17 19.Charleroi - Club Brugge @1.15 20.Lyon - Marseille @1.1 21.Almeria B - Arroyo @1.06 |
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18.Sevilla v Ath Bilbao @1.17 = 1.6%
19.Charleroi - Club Brugge @1.15 = 1.43% 20.Lyon - Marseille @1.1 = 0.94% 21.Almeria B - Arroyo @1.06 = 0.58% |
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good day today 21 bets in, bank is at 4.22% profit
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22.Estoril v Gil Vicente @1.13
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22.Estoril v Gil Vicente @1.13 = 1.24%
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todays picks
23.Getafe v Girona @1.17 24.Excelsior v Zwolle @1.24 25.Mansfield - Oldham @1.14 |
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FFS
23.Getafe v Girona @1.17 = -10% 24.Excelsior v Zwolle @1.24 = -1.11% 25.Mansfield - Oldham @1.14 = -12.5% |
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26.Lyon - Reims @1.12
27.ACS Poli Timisoara - CFR Cluj @1.11 |
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wow, starting to hope this form continues and then ill start backing the over 4.5
26.Lyon - Reims @1.12 = -10% 27.ACS Poli Timisoara - CFR Cluj @1.11 = 1.16% |
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28.Elche - Malaga @1.1
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26.Lyon - Reims @1.12 = -10%
The first goal only came after 59 minutes. May I ask why you didn't trade out? |
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trading out is not part of my strategy, not sure what type of rules i would impose for trading out , when , why , at what price etc
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I see. Well, I do believe that one should either always trade out (profit or loss) or never, but at odds of 1.01 it really doesn't make sense to keep a bet running as it can only turn against you. I know they only get busted once in a blue moon, but when it happens you feel really dumb for being greedy and letting it run.
My rule of thumb when I bet Unders (2.5/3.5/4.5) is to trade out when I can secure a profit of roughly .11 or .21 (i.e., going in at 2.08 and getting out at 1.97 or 1.87), depending on how secure I feel about the bet and how long it takes for the odds to fall. It doesn't make you rich and takes a lot of patience, but nowadays teams are so concerned about not conceding rather than scoring more goals that there's almost always an opportunity for a decent trade. The priority is to keep the 'exposure time' as small as possible. I don't know how much you're up/down overall, but if you're getting burned by goals scored relatively late in the game, maybe setting yourself a target profit for each bet and trading out accordingly might be worth considering? (Just a friendly word of advice, not saying you're doing it wrong.  ) |
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i appreciate what your saying, this is the first game i have noticed that was 0-0 at such a late stage , i have quite a few where there has been 2 or 3 early goals then nothing, your strategy sounds ok for a trading strategy, as for under 4.5's im taking 1.11 quite often so to trade id maybe look at a 0.05 profit. amounts dont bother me if i know it works long term then im happy , compound interest will take care of the rest.
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28.Elche - Malaga @1.1
29.Sheff Wed - Wigan @1.13 30.Crawley Town -Bristol Rovers @1.13 |
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There's no winning 'system' to football betting as no one game is the same, I think (unless you can automate it, but even those bots seem to mess up every now and then). Good luck with it, hopefully you're still in it after 100 bets.
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i agree there is no 'system' as such, im careful not to use that word, this is just a trial, my real betting bank is doing just fine using good working practises , in profit the last 3 yrs, this trial is -32.77% at the moment, im sorta hoping that i lose the full 100% quickly at the mo then i think ill reverse the thing, still tho could add ways to get better value with inplay betting,
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28.Elche - Malaga @1.1 cancelled (not till friday )
29.Sheff Wed - Wigan @1.13 (postponed) 30.Crawley Town -Bristol Rovers @1.13 = 1.23% |
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29.Rayo Vallecano - Valladolid @1.16
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