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YouAreInBits
13 Sep 13 12:41
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Date Joined: 01 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 1,255 | Blogger: YouAreInBits's blog
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.110930345

Lay None of the above to score at 11.0. Price should be like 1000/1
Pause Switch to Standard View Ridic good lay
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Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 12:50 PM BST
25s now. Still a great lay.
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 1:21 PM BST
Why are people trying to back this??? They must not have read the market rules. The price should be like bigger than 1000/1
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 1:31 PM BST
9.4 available....take it
Report liverpoolfc89 September 13, 2013 1:34 PM BST
Some of them could easily score first though? Or am I missing something
Report mulletmaster September 13, 2013 1:35 PM BST
Anyone would think you were the one putting the money up.

Surely not eh? ;)
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 1:48 PM BST
If you lay None of the above....then as long as any of the players listed scores then you win. It doesn't matter if they don't score first in their respective, the market states that it is the first amongst them to score will be settled as a winner. The price of ALL of the players listed NOT to score anytime is HUGE. So laying at 9.4 which is available now is unbelievable value.
Report liverpoolfc89 September 13, 2013 1:50 PM BST
Tbh that is fantastic value.
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 1:51 PM BST
The people trying to back it at 9.4 and above obviously have not read the rules!!!
Report mulletmaster September 13, 2013 1:54 PM BST
Which begs the question - why are you not hoovering all this up?
Report CJ70 September 13, 2013 1:55 PM BST
Good find. Had a bit.
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 1:56 PM BST
laying the 'None of Above to score ' selection is basically saying ALL of the players listed will not score at anytime
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 1:56 PM BST
sorry i mean BACKING the 'None of Above to score ' selection is basically saying ALL of the players listed will not score at anytime
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 1:57 PM BST
np Cj70. got on myself before posting here for you
Report liverpoolfc89 September 13, 2013 2:09 PM BST
up into the 20's now
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 2:29 PM BST
10.5 again now!
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 2:54 PM BST
Price should be 33,000/1.
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 2:55 PM BST
provided they all start.
Report Java September 13, 2013 3:37 PM BST
Why on earth should it be 33,000 to 1? It's likely a couple will score and some point but it's by no means guaranteed.  Think 10-1 is fair.
Report Java September 13, 2013 3:38 PM BST
If you think it should be over 1000/1 can I have some 100/1 please?
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 3:39 PM BST
Because 33,000/1 is the inverse price of at least one of the players scoring at anytime based on their current price to score a goal at anytime.
Report Java September 13, 2013 3:41 PM BST
you seriously think that that group of players not scoring is a 33,000/1 shot?  Laugh

Care to share this calculation?
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 3:44 PM BST
Get all the players listed prices to score anytime. Divide 1 by each of these decimal prices. This is the % chance of them scoring. Now, subtract 1 - this %. This is the % chance of them not scoring. Get the product of all these and once you get this the price is therefore 1 divided by this product. Works out to about 33,000/1.
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 3:45 PM BST
It's laughable you think 10/1 is fair. You have no knowledge of what the market is. If you lay the 'none of above to score' selection, provided any of the players score at anytime you win.
Report Java September 13, 2013 3:48 PM BST
Actually 10/1 is probably a bad price to back - but it's a million miles closer than 33,000 to 1
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 3:48 PM BST
It's not Java. Basic maths.
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 3:49 PM BST
The market IMO is under the impression that if for example a goalkeeper scores a goal in the first second of a 3pm game then the None of the above selection will be settled as a winner. This is not the case.
Report Java September 13, 2013 3:49 PM BST
Something's gone wrong with your calculation I'm afraid.  The multiple on the Spurs v Norwich five players not scoring is about 6-1.
Report Java September 13, 2013 3:51 PM BST
For example, Soldado is evens to score, therefore evens not to score.  Van Wolf is 4-1 to score therefore 1/4 not to score.  So odds of Soldado and Van Wolf not scoring = 6/4 - agreed?
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 3:52 PM BST
Spot on java...now depending on the anytime prices you give to each player....do that for the whole market.
Report Java September 13, 2013 3:54 PM BST
ok - hold on.  Will take me a little while
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 3:57 PM BST
depending on the anytime prices you use the price will prob be anywhere between 18,000 - 40,000
Report Java September 13, 2013 4:01 PM BST
my apologies you are correct.  I took very approximate prices and even then got to 9,000-1
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 4:03 PM BST
no worries. it is a confusing one in fairness. i see someone took the 10's on offer there....still a lay at 20's is still value!
Report Java September 13, 2013 4:03 PM BST
so lay at 25-1 (for the sake of argument), and you'd need about 18 of the players not to start before it wasn't value
Report YouAreInBits September 13, 2013 4:04 PM BST
haha yes! pretty sick.
Report Java September 13, 2013 4:04 PM BST
Looks the best lay in history unless we are missing something.
Report Java September 13, 2013 4:04 PM BST
well done - good spot.
Report Java September 13, 2013 4:33 PM BST
Who keeps trying to back this at 8-1 !?
Report CJ70 September 13, 2013 5:26 PM BST
I've read the rules again and again. If the market is settled to the rules as written this is very close to free money territory.
Report CJ70 September 13, 2013 5:26 PM BST
I've topped up a bit more.
Report Arfur Foxache September 13, 2013 7:47 PM BST
read **bet of saturday** thread, that's why people are backing it, they haven't read/understood the rules correctly
Report YouAreInBits September 14, 2013 9:29 AM BST
Haha hilarious! I see the market is moving out correctly now although people are still trying to back it at 1000. If I had the Bank I'd be laying everything at 1,000. #ValueTown
Report YouAreInBits September 14, 2013 11:21 AM BST
Idiots trying to back it at 18, 22 and 24....fill your boots people!
Report YouAreInBits September 14, 2013 3:11 PM BST
Giroud.
Report CJ70 September 14, 2013 7:20 PM BST
Paid out like a dream. Cheers once more.
Report icfkev September 28, 2013 7:08 PM BST
i laid this bet last week at 4.2 lol everyone is confused by this.
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