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I thought I would sum up my opinions and recommendations for the upcoming Football League season, and maybe keep it going throughout the season:
Championship 2013/14 Preview
Outright winner
QPR are the clear favourites to win this section, and it is clear to see why the bookies rate them. The club is owned by Tony Fernandes and Lakshmi Mittal who are both filthy rich and fiercely ambitious; their manager is Harry Redknapp who just over a year ago was the favourite to become the next England manager; and their squad is packed with expensive internationals.
When Redknapp last managed in this division he led Portsmouth to the title after recruiting Paul Merson and Steve Stone; and he looks as though he is again going for older players with character to ensure a quick return to the Premier League. He has somehow managed to recoup the £10 million they spent in January on Christopher Samba, and then signed a quality replacement in the experienced Richard Dunne; meanwhile according to the press he is looking to add Scott Parker to the squad too.
However this is more or less still the same squad that finished rock bottom of the Premier League last season with just 25 points. Loic Remy, who was one of the bright points of last season’s dismal campaign, would probably already have left by now if it wasn’t for his arrest for rape; and it looks as though they have missed out on recruiting Celtic’s Gary Hooper as his replacement. Meanwhile Adel Taarabt who was the 2011 Football League Player of the Year when he pretty much single-handedly dragged Rangers to the Championship title looks likely to leave the club this summer. If Rangers are to win the league this season they will need players such as Junior Hoilett and Park Ji-Sung to step to the plate, but after their shocking performances last year would you really want to take the 6/1 that they will this year?
I believe the most likely winner will come from the next few teams in the betting, although at this stage I am struggling to pick a winner. I do like the look of Wigan’s squad and their price of 12/1 looks like it could be generous. New manager Owen Coyle moved quickly and smartly to replace Aroune Koné and Franco Di Santo with Grant Holt and Marc-Antoine Fortuné. If it wasn’t for the extra demands of the Europa League hanging over them the Latics would probably be my tip, and if they do go out of Europe early that maybe the time to back them.
The other team relegated from the Premier League last season was Reading who are available at 9/1. I believe they were harsh to sack Brian McDermott, but his replacement Nigel Adkins was also unlucky to be dismissed by Southampton, and he also has experience of promotion from this division. The club are clearly well backed by their owner Anton Zingarevich as can be testified by their summer capture of ex-Real Madrid man Royston Drenthe. They have also done well to convince Hal Robson-Kanu to resist the lures of the top flight and sign a new contract. However I have doubts over how the newer players to the team such as Drenthe and Pavel Pogrebnyak fit in with the rest of the squad.
Bolton Wanderers bid goodbye to the last of Big Sam’s stalwarts this summer as Kevin Davies left for Preston; however namesakes Mark and Craig remain. Manager, Dougie Freedman has done well to add some quality summer signings, such as Alex Baptiste and in particular Jermaine Beckford. Freedman and his evergreen assistant Lennie Lawrence maybe wondering what might have been as they look on enviously as old club Palace prepares for the Premier League, but Bolton arguably have better long term prospects. The Trotters finished last season strongly, and should do well this, but are probably a touch skinny at 9/1.
Watford was unfortunate to not go up last season, after finishing third in the normal season and runners-up to Palace in the play-off final. Gianfranco Zola’s side played the best football in the division after Christmas last season, and have managed to permanently sign the majority of their loan performers from last season. Although one player who looks unlikely to return to Vicarage Road is the reigning Championship Player of the Year, Matěj Vydra; however the young Czech striker’s performances dipped towards the end of last season, and he may not be as missed as some people think. There was some 20/1 available earlier in the summer and they would definitely have been a back at that price, but this is long gone and the 12/1 available now looks about right.
Of the longer priced teams it is the 33/1 about Derby County that most catches my eye. Nigel Clough seems to be a manager who likes to slowly build and evolve a team, as can be seen with his time at Burton. He has now been at Pride Park for more than four years and this season could be the one when the Rams finally launch a charge for promotion. He has two of the most promising young midfielders in the division in Will Hughes and Jeff Hendrick, and has added the experience of John Eustace to operate alongside them. While upfront he may have finally found the missing piece to the jigsaw in striker Johnny Russell, who scored 20 goals for Dundee United last season.
Sadly I am going to be boring and recommend no bet for this section, for now. I don’t think QPR should be touched at their current price, and feel that the winner is most likely going to come from Wigan, Reading, Bolton or Watford in that order of preference. However I feel that it would be wiser to wait until a few weeks into the season and note which teams gel, rather than rush in now. This may mean we need to take a shorter price, but at the moment I just don’t see too much value in this market.
Recommendation: No bet
Relegation
Yeovil are the clear favourites for relegation in this market which is hardly surprising given they are possibly the smallest club to ever compete at this level. However in relatively recent years clubs such as Colchester and Peterborough have survived a season in the second tier. Gary Johnson is a canny operator at this level and is enjoying an amazing second spell in charge at Huish Park, after having previously led the Somerset club into the Football League. The Glovers are 11/10 for a one season stay in the Championship and are likely to endure a long tough season, but with League One Golden Boot holder Paddy Madden in attack I don’t think there is much mileage in this price.
The team I do think are likely to really struggle this season is Blackpool. Sadly the 6/1 that was available earlier this summer is long gone, but even at the 4/1 the Tangerines look value for the drop.
Some may say that Blackpool were prudent with the Premier League windfall they received a few seasons back. They didn’t start splashing the cash on extravagant transfers and in particular big wages, but instead decided to invest in cheap young talent and their dilapidated stadium.
Others may feel that the Oyston family who own the club have taken too much money out of the club and with a little more investment maybe now they could be reaping the benefits from the latest bumper Premier League TV deal.
Whatever your opinion, Blackpool now find themselves back where they were a few seasons ago as a small Championship side more likely to be caught up in a relegation battle than a promotion push. In February of this year Paul Ince was chosen to succeed Michael Appleton as manager, after the latter’s 65 day spell in the hot seat. Ince’s appointment seems to have been a move by the board to keep his son, Blackpool’s star player Tom Ince, at the club. So far this move seems to have succeeded as Ince Jnr turned down a move to Cardiff earlier this summer. However, given the fact he was allowed to talk to the Welsh outfit and then deliberated over the move for a number of days, it does seem that if a bigger club makes an offer then he may not stick around.
Meanwhile Blackpool has so far only signed three players strikers Bobby Grant and Michael Chopra as well as centre back Gary MacKenzie from Rochdale and MK Dons respectively. These are not the kind of signings that will inspire the supporters particularly as the off season has seen a number of players leave. Presently it is reported that there are only 14 fit professionals at the club, and Ince will have to work quickly before the start of the season to get more bodies in. However given the Oyston family’s notorious lack of investment in the playing staff, it will be tough for Ince to get the required quality into the club. Therefore even at 4/1, Blackpool looks a bet for the drop.
The only other team I am considering backing for relegation is Middlesbrough at 10/1. Their Premier League parachute payments have come to an end, and according to their latest accounts the club lost £13.5m for the 12 month period running up to June 30, 2012. Their generous chairman Steve Gibson says he will continue to support the club financially, but the days of Juninho and Fabrizio Ravanelli gracing the Riverside are long gone.
Boro did start last season strongly, but displayed relegation form after Christmas. This season they will need either of Marvin Emnes or Lukas Jutkiewicz to step and score the goals to keep their heads above water. If these two don’t perform Tony Mowbray will need to find a striker from somewhere. Last season he made good use of the loan market in recruiting Josh McEachran and Sammy Ameobi, and he may have to hope Premier League clubs are as generous mood with their young talent this campaign. Given there are a few weeks to the start of the season it is probably best to hold fire on backing Boro for the drop at the moment, but if new signings don’t arrive then the 10/1 could be worth a play.
Recommendation:
Blackpool 5 points @ 4/1 with Sportingbet & Bwin
Top Goalscorer
This is the Championship market that has got me most excited. In my opinion the first two players in the market are weak favourites, and therefore that means there should be plenty of value around elsewhere.
One of the toughest things when picking candidates to be the top goalscorer in lower divisions is weighing up how likely they are to spend the entire season in the same division. If a player does well and scores a lot of goals before Christmas then chances are a club from higher up the pyramid may try and recruit the player to their ranks. This maybe particularly true this season as the Premier League TV rights deal continues to grow exponentially; and so the disparity between the top flight clubs and the rest increases, and the need to remain in the Premier League grows more important with each passing season.
The favourite in the market is Blackburn’s Jordan Rhodes at 8/1, and it is easy to see why the bookies want him onside. Rhodes scored 29 league goals last season, and was only just beaten by a single goal to the Golden Boot by Glenn Murray. The previous season he won the League One Golden Boot after notching 36 goals for Huddersfield. However Blackburn is a club in crisis. The Venky’s takeover has been an unmitigated disaster. Despite the club investing heavily in Rhodes, Danny Murphy and Nuno Gomes amongst others last season in an attempt to secure a quick return to the Premier League, in the end the club were lucky to escape a second successive relegation. Come January if Blackburn are not in the race for automatic promotion and Rhodes is performing well then he will be a ripe target for Premier League clubs, and if he isn’t performing well then chances are he will not be in the shake-up for the Golden Boot. The danger is he will be the star of a Blackburn team at the top of the table, but this is a risk I am willing to take. If Rhodes was guaranteed to spend the whole season at this level then the 8/1 would represent fair, possibly good value given he rarely seems to be injured. In my opinion these odds do not accurately take into account the probability that he will last the season in the Championship, so we must look elsewhere for value.
Reading’s Adam Le Fondre is the second favourite in the market at 14/1. Le Fondre was the Premier League’s Player of the Month for January 2013, but this was particularly notable for the fact he won this award despite not starting a single match and spending just 85 minutes on the pitch during the month. In fact ever since Le Fondre arrived at the Madejski Stadium from Rotherham he has been viewed as something of a supersub. Last season he started just 11 league games, and came on as substitute in 23 although he did notch 12 goals in the short time he was on the pitch. During the previous season when Reading last competed at this level he started 16 league games and was sub in 15, and also notched 12 goals. Given these statistics I find it very hard to argue a case to have him so high up in the betting.
The first of my picks in this market is Troy Deeney at 25/1. The Watford striker began last season in prison where he served just less than three months of a ten month sentence for affray. Deeney was released in mid-September and continued his rehabilitation as he finished the season with 20 goals in 36 games. His physical attributes offer Watford a strong presence at the apex of their team which is needed in the Championship, and given his competition for the striking births at Watford are the silky skilled 5’7 Fernando Forestieri and new signing 5’9 Javier Acuña; then it is likely Deeney will play in the majority of games. With manager Gianfranco Zola favouring an attacking expansive game then Deeney should get plenty of opportunities.
25 year old James Vaughan still holds the record for the youngest ever Premier League goalscorer, when he netted for Everton against Crystal Palace at the tender age of 16 years and 267 days. So far he has failed to live up to that early promise, but now he finally seems to be putting a spell of injuries behind him and this could be his season to shine. He spent last season on loan from Norwich at Huddersfield and netted a respectable 14 goals in 31 league starts, including a hat-trick away at Bristol City in April. He made the loan move permanent this summer and so is more than likely going to see out the season with the Terriers. Hopefully if he can stay injury free he can make a mockery of the 66/1 attached to him, which is as short as 20/1 elsewhere.
My final and most intriguing selection is Charlton’s Yann Kermorgant who can be backed at a massive 150/1! Last season Kermorgant scored 12 goals from 28 starts, and only played so few games as he suffered a broken ankle in September which saw him miss a few months. Charlton released fellow strikers Ricardo Fuller, Danny Haynes and Bradley Wright-Phillips and so the onus will be on Kermorgant to deliver. At 31 he should be up to the challenge and was recently named captain for the Addick’s friendly against Dagenham & Redbridge. He may not win the Golden Boot outright, but I am more than happy to place the bet each-way and hope that he lands place part at 37.5/1.
Recommendations:
[b]Troy Deeney 1 point each way @ 25/1 with Corals & William Hill
James Vaughan ½ point each way @ 66/1 with Skybet & William Hill
Yann Kermorgant 1 point each way @ 150/1 with BetVictor & Ladbrokes[/b]
Championship 2013/14 Preview
Outright winner
QPR are the clear favourites to win this section, and it is clear to see why the bookies rate them. The club is owned by Tony Fernandes and Lakshmi Mittal who are both filthy rich and fiercely ambitious; their manager is Harry Redknapp who just over a year ago was the favourite to become the next England manager; and their squad is packed with expensive internationals.
When Redknapp last managed in this division he led Portsmouth to the title after recruiting Paul Merson and Steve Stone; and he looks as though he is again going for older players with character to ensure a quick return to the Premier League. He has somehow managed to recoup the £10 million they spent in January on Christopher Samba, and then signed a quality replacement in the experienced Richard Dunne; meanwhile according to the press he is looking to add Scott Parker to the squad too.
However this is more or less still the same squad that finished rock bottom of the Premier League last season with just 25 points. Loic Remy, who was one of the bright points of last season’s dismal campaign, would probably already have left by now if it wasn’t for his arrest for rape; and it looks as though they have missed out on recruiting Celtic’s Gary Hooper as his replacement. Meanwhile Adel Taarabt who was the 2011 Football League Player of the Year when he pretty much single-handedly dragged Rangers to the Championship title looks likely to leave the club this summer. If Rangers are to win the league this season they will need players such as Junior Hoilett and Park Ji-Sung to step to the plate, but after their shocking performances last year would you really want to take the 6/1 that they will this year?
I believe the most likely winner will come from the next few teams in the betting, although at this stage I am struggling to pick a winner. I do like the look of Wigan’s squad and their price of 12/1 looks like it could be generous. New manager Owen Coyle moved quickly and smartly to replace Aroune Koné and Franco Di Santo with Grant Holt and Marc-Antoine Fortuné. If it wasn’t for the extra demands of the Europa League hanging over them the Latics would probably be my tip, and if they do go out of Europe early that maybe the time to back them.
The other team relegated from the Premier League last season was Reading who are available at 9/1. I believe they were harsh to sack Brian McDermott, but his replacement Nigel Adkins was also unlucky to be dismissed by Southampton, and he also has experience of promotion from this division. The club are clearly well backed by their owner Anton Zingarevich as can be testified by their summer capture of ex-Real Madrid man Royston Drenthe. They have also done well to convince Hal Robson-Kanu to resist the lures of the top flight and sign a new contract. However I have doubts over how the newer players to the team such as Drenthe and Pavel Pogrebnyak fit in with the rest of the squad.
Bolton Wanderers bid goodbye to the last of Big Sam’s stalwarts this summer as Kevin Davies left for Preston; however namesakes Mark and Craig remain. Manager, Dougie Freedman has done well to add some quality summer signings, such as Alex Baptiste and in particular Jermaine Beckford. Freedman and his evergreen assistant Lennie Lawrence maybe wondering what might have been as they look on enviously as old club Palace prepares for the Premier League, but Bolton arguably have better long term prospects. The Trotters finished last season strongly, and should do well this, but are probably a touch skinny at 9/1.
Watford was unfortunate to not go up last season, after finishing third in the normal season and runners-up to Palace in the play-off final. Gianfranco Zola’s side played the best football in the division after Christmas last season, and have managed to permanently sign the majority of their loan performers from last season. Although one player who looks unlikely to return to Vicarage Road is the reigning Championship Player of the Year, Matěj Vydra; however the young Czech striker’s performances dipped towards the end of last season, and he may not be as missed as some people think. There was some 20/1 available earlier in the summer and they would definitely have been a back at that price, but this is long gone and the 12/1 available now looks about right.
Of the longer priced teams it is the 33/1 about Derby County that most catches my eye. Nigel Clough seems to be a manager who likes to slowly build and evolve a team, as can be seen with his time at Burton. He has now been at Pride Park for more than four years and this season could be the one when the Rams finally launch a charge for promotion. He has two of the most promising young midfielders in the division in Will Hughes and Jeff Hendrick, and has added the experience of John Eustace to operate alongside them. While upfront he may have finally found the missing piece to the jigsaw in striker Johnny Russell, who scored 20 goals for Dundee United last season.
Sadly I am going to be boring and recommend no bet for this section, for now. I don’t think QPR should be touched at their current price, and feel that the winner is most likely going to come from Wigan, Reading, Bolton or Watford in that order of preference. However I feel that it would be wiser to wait until a few weeks into the season and note which teams gel, rather than rush in now. This may mean we need to take a shorter price, but at the moment I just don’t see too much value in this market.
Recommendation: No bet
Relegation
Yeovil are the clear favourites for relegation in this market which is hardly surprising given they are possibly the smallest club to ever compete at this level. However in relatively recent years clubs such as Colchester and Peterborough have survived a season in the second tier. Gary Johnson is a canny operator at this level and is enjoying an amazing second spell in charge at Huish Park, after having previously led the Somerset club into the Football League. The Glovers are 11/10 for a one season stay in the Championship and are likely to endure a long tough season, but with League One Golden Boot holder Paddy Madden in attack I don’t think there is much mileage in this price.
The team I do think are likely to really struggle this season is Blackpool. Sadly the 6/1 that was available earlier this summer is long gone, but even at the 4/1 the Tangerines look value for the drop.
Some may say that Blackpool were prudent with the Premier League windfall they received a few seasons back. They didn’t start splashing the cash on extravagant transfers and in particular big wages, but instead decided to invest in cheap young talent and their dilapidated stadium.
Others may feel that the Oyston family who own the club have taken too much money out of the club and with a little more investment maybe now they could be reaping the benefits from the latest bumper Premier League TV deal.
Whatever your opinion, Blackpool now find themselves back where they were a few seasons ago as a small Championship side more likely to be caught up in a relegation battle than a promotion push. In February of this year Paul Ince was chosen to succeed Michael Appleton as manager, after the latter’s 65 day spell in the hot seat. Ince’s appointment seems to have been a move by the board to keep his son, Blackpool’s star player Tom Ince, at the club. So far this move seems to have succeeded as Ince Jnr turned down a move to Cardiff earlier this summer. However, given the fact he was allowed to talk to the Welsh outfit and then deliberated over the move for a number of days, it does seem that if a bigger club makes an offer then he may not stick around.
Meanwhile Blackpool has so far only signed three players strikers Bobby Grant and Michael Chopra as well as centre back Gary MacKenzie from Rochdale and MK Dons respectively. These are not the kind of signings that will inspire the supporters particularly as the off season has seen a number of players leave. Presently it is reported that there are only 14 fit professionals at the club, and Ince will have to work quickly before the start of the season to get more bodies in. However given the Oyston family’s notorious lack of investment in the playing staff, it will be tough for Ince to get the required quality into the club. Therefore even at 4/1, Blackpool looks a bet for the drop.
The only other team I am considering backing for relegation is Middlesbrough at 10/1. Their Premier League parachute payments have come to an end, and according to their latest accounts the club lost £13.5m for the 12 month period running up to June 30, 2012. Their generous chairman Steve Gibson says he will continue to support the club financially, but the days of Juninho and Fabrizio Ravanelli gracing the Riverside are long gone.
Boro did start last season strongly, but displayed relegation form after Christmas. This season they will need either of Marvin Emnes or Lukas Jutkiewicz to step and score the goals to keep their heads above water. If these two don’t perform Tony Mowbray will need to find a striker from somewhere. Last season he made good use of the loan market in recruiting Josh McEachran and Sammy Ameobi, and he may have to hope Premier League clubs are as generous mood with their young talent this campaign. Given there are a few weeks to the start of the season it is probably best to hold fire on backing Boro for the drop at the moment, but if new signings don’t arrive then the 10/1 could be worth a play.
Recommendation:
Blackpool 5 points @ 4/1 with Sportingbet & Bwin
Top Goalscorer
This is the Championship market that has got me most excited. In my opinion the first two players in the market are weak favourites, and therefore that means there should be plenty of value around elsewhere.
One of the toughest things when picking candidates to be the top goalscorer in lower divisions is weighing up how likely they are to spend the entire season in the same division. If a player does well and scores a lot of goals before Christmas then chances are a club from higher up the pyramid may try and recruit the player to their ranks. This maybe particularly true this season as the Premier League TV rights deal continues to grow exponentially; and so the disparity between the top flight clubs and the rest increases, and the need to remain in the Premier League grows more important with each passing season.
The favourite in the market is Blackburn’s Jordan Rhodes at 8/1, and it is easy to see why the bookies want him onside. Rhodes scored 29 league goals last season, and was only just beaten by a single goal to the Golden Boot by Glenn Murray. The previous season he won the League One Golden Boot after notching 36 goals for Huddersfield. However Blackburn is a club in crisis. The Venky’s takeover has been an unmitigated disaster. Despite the club investing heavily in Rhodes, Danny Murphy and Nuno Gomes amongst others last season in an attempt to secure a quick return to the Premier League, in the end the club were lucky to escape a second successive relegation. Come January if Blackburn are not in the race for automatic promotion and Rhodes is performing well then he will be a ripe target for Premier League clubs, and if he isn’t performing well then chances are he will not be in the shake-up for the Golden Boot. The danger is he will be the star of a Blackburn team at the top of the table, but this is a risk I am willing to take. If Rhodes was guaranteed to spend the whole season at this level then the 8/1 would represent fair, possibly good value given he rarely seems to be injured. In my opinion these odds do not accurately take into account the probability that he will last the season in the Championship, so we must look elsewhere for value.
Reading’s Adam Le Fondre is the second favourite in the market at 14/1. Le Fondre was the Premier League’s Player of the Month for January 2013, but this was particularly notable for the fact he won this award despite not starting a single match and spending just 85 minutes on the pitch during the month. In fact ever since Le Fondre arrived at the Madejski Stadium from Rotherham he has been viewed as something of a supersub. Last season he started just 11 league games, and came on as substitute in 23 although he did notch 12 goals in the short time he was on the pitch. During the previous season when Reading last competed at this level he started 16 league games and was sub in 15, and also notched 12 goals. Given these statistics I find it very hard to argue a case to have him so high up in the betting.
The first of my picks in this market is Troy Deeney at 25/1. The Watford striker began last season in prison where he served just less than three months of a ten month sentence for affray. Deeney was released in mid-September and continued his rehabilitation as he finished the season with 20 goals in 36 games. His physical attributes offer Watford a strong presence at the apex of their team which is needed in the Championship, and given his competition for the striking births at Watford are the silky skilled 5’7 Fernando Forestieri and new signing 5’9 Javier Acuña; then it is likely Deeney will play in the majority of games. With manager Gianfranco Zola favouring an attacking expansive game then Deeney should get plenty of opportunities.
25 year old James Vaughan still holds the record for the youngest ever Premier League goalscorer, when he netted for Everton against Crystal Palace at the tender age of 16 years and 267 days. So far he has failed to live up to that early promise, but now he finally seems to be putting a spell of injuries behind him and this could be his season to shine. He spent last season on loan from Norwich at Huddersfield and netted a respectable 14 goals in 31 league starts, including a hat-trick away at Bristol City in April. He made the loan move permanent this summer and so is more than likely going to see out the season with the Terriers. Hopefully if he can stay injury free he can make a mockery of the 66/1 attached to him, which is as short as 20/1 elsewhere.
My final and most intriguing selection is Charlton’s Yann Kermorgant who can be backed at a massive 150/1! Last season Kermorgant scored 12 goals from 28 starts, and only played so few games as he suffered a broken ankle in September which saw him miss a few months. Charlton released fellow strikers Ricardo Fuller, Danny Haynes and Bradley Wright-Phillips and so the onus will be on Kermorgant to deliver. At 31 he should be up to the challenge and was recently named captain for the Addick’s friendly against Dagenham & Redbridge. He may not win the Golden Boot outright, but I am more than happy to place the bet each-way and hope that he lands place part at 37.5/1.
Recommendations:
[b]Troy Deeney 1 point each way @ 25/1 with Corals & William Hill
James Vaughan ½ point each way @ 66/1 with Skybet & William Hill
Yann Kermorgant 1 point each way @ 150/1 with BetVictor & Ladbrokes[/b]
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League One 2013/14 Preview
Outright winner This division has the shortest priced favourite of the three that make up the Football League. Wolverhampton Wanderers are a best priced 4/1 to finish top of this section in May next year. Yet other “big” clubs have descended to this level in recent years and not immediately achieved promotion, let alone won the title. In the last decade Leeds Untied, Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Wednesday have spent three years at this level; although Leeds did start their first campaign with a 15 point penalty. Meanwhile Sheffield United are about to embark on their third consecutive season in League One. Wolves do deserve to be favourites in what is traditionally a very open division, and made a shrewd move in appointing Kenny Jackett as successor to Dean Saunders. Jackett has won promotion from this division with Millwall and knows exactly what it takes to be successful at this level. Wolves boast the reigning Scottish Premier League Player of the Year, Leigh Griffiths, in attack. It will be interesting to see how the striker adapts to League One football after his exploits for Hibernian last season where he netted 28 times. Wolves presently still retain a number of players from their recent days in the Premier League, although Jamie O’Hara, Karl Henry, Steven Ward and Roger Johnson have all been transfer listed, whilst Kevin Doyle has been strongly linked with a move to Celtic. Yet despite boasting a strong squad and a canny manager, do Wolves really look like they would win this division 20% of the time which is what the odds of 4/1 implies? In my opinion given the history of unpredictability in this division and the upheavals in the squad there is better value to be had. Brentford are my first selection. If Marcello Trotta had scored that last minute penalty against Doncaster in April, then the Bees would have won the title and it would be Rovers who would have gone into the play-offs. Instead Trotta hit the bar and Doncaster raced down the other end to score and steal the top spot from Bournemouth in the most dramatic fashion possible. This setback hasn’t deterred the Bees, and manager Uwe Rösler has been active in the close season. Although Harry Forrester chose to leave West London for Doncaster, Rösler has managed to recruit some classy players including Swindon captain Alan McCormack, Walsall’s prolific Will Grigg, and veteran Spanish defender Javi Venta from Villareal. The Bees have been well backed by wealthy owner Matthew Benham in recent seasons and should definitely go close again this campaign. There was some 16/1 available a few weeks ago, but sadly this is all long gone and the best available price is now 10/1, but even at these shortened odds Brentford is worth an each-way investment. My second pick are Bradford. The Bantams won a lot of friends last season during their fantastic run to the final of the League Cup, and this distraction was probably the reason why they did not secure an automatic berth and had to rely on the lottery of the play-offs. However their Wembley experience in the cup served them in good stead, as they coolly dispatched Northampton with three goals in the first 28 minutes of the final. The cup run also generated £2.3 million for a club that had been financially struggling in the last few years. Thankfully the club seem to have learnt from their recent history and have not let this windfall go to their heads. Jason Kennedy and Mark Yeates are the only arrivals so far, but more importantly the club have been able rebuff Peterborough’s attempts to sign last season’s top scorer Nahki Wells. There Is no guarantee that if a bigger club comes in that Wells will stay, but If they can keep him or invest any transfer fee they receive wisely, after their big game experiences last season, the Bantams could have a strong league showing this at a tempting 30/1. Recommendations: Brentford 2 points each way @ 10/1 with Boyles, Skybet and Stan James Bradford ½ point each way @ 30/1 with Skybet Relegation This division has four relegation places that need to be filled, and 16 of the teams will begin the season in single figure odds for the drop. The five favourites for the demotion are the five teams that finished directly above the relegation zone last season, but I have chosen three bigger priced selections that I believe will be in for tougher times than the bookmakers may have imagined. Last season Walsall finished a creditable ninth in League One. It was a campaign of ups and downs. At the start of the season four wins in five left the Saddler’s fans dreaming of promotion, but following that burst of form they failed to win in 16 matches. As relegation looked a distinct possibility they regrouped to win 11 of the next 16 to seal their top half finish. The Bescot faithful has endured a tough close season, witnessing their three best attacking players leave the club. Seven goal Fabien Brandy departed for Sheffield United, 12 goal winger Jamie Paterson chose to join Nottingham Forest, while the Saddlers 19 goal top scorer chose to join League One rivals Brentford. Dean Smith has raided West London for replacements and recruited Troy Hewitt on a free transfer following his release from QPR and Milan Lalkovič on loan from Chelsea, but these two players boast just 2 goals between them (both for Hewitt whilst on loan at Bury last season). I can see Walsall going on another 16 match winless run this season, but without the upturns in form that punctuated last season’s campaign. Their transfer activity has been reflected in their odds for relegation having been cut from 5/1 to 7/2, but with little money for quality replacements this still looks a value punt. My second pick is Notts County. Chris Kiwomya was appointed caretaker manager in February following Keith Curle’s sacking, and the appointment was made permanent a month later when he signed a three year contract. The likeable Kiwomya could not have chosen a much harder first managerial job if he tried. The money that was washing through the club a few years ago during the Sven-Göran Eriksson and Sol Campbell years has long dried up. During the summer the club also lost Alan Judge, Jeff Hughes and Neal Bishop on free transfers as all were out of contract. This midfield trio contributed 22 league goals last season, which will be almost impossible to replace. What is particularly galling is that Hughes rejected an offer from County to step down a division and join Fleetwood Town. At least Judge left for Blackburn, and Bishop although he is currently unattached is rumoured to be in negotiations with Championship clubs. There is 13/2 about the world’s oldest professional club being relegated, and that is too good to miss. My final selection in this market is another club that changed manager in February last year and they can also be backed at 13/2 for the drop. Paolo Di Canio left the club after disagreements over transfers and the uncertainty surrounding Jed McCrory's consortium taking control of the club. McCrory is now chairman of the club, but it is understood that he has slashed the wage budget this summer from £4.5m to just over £2m. As a result the Robins have lost a number of their key performers from the last two successful seasons such as last season’s captain Alan McCormack, Aden Flint and Simon Ferry. To replace these experienced departures the Robins have raided Tottenham’s youth set-up and signed Jack Barthram and Nathan Byrne on permanent deals, as well as Grant Hall, Massimo Luongo, Alex Pritchard and Ryan Mason on loan terms from the North London club. Whether this experiment in becoming some sort of Tottenham B will work is yet to be seen, but I am happy to take the 13/2 that it doesn’t. Recommendations: Walsall 4 points @ 7/2 with Bwin, Paddy Power & Skybet Notts County 2 points @ 13/2 with Bet365 Swindon Town 2 points @ 13/2 with Bwin Top Goalscorer This market is headed by the current Scottish Premier League Player of the year, Leigh Griffiths. The 22 year old striker netted 28 goals whilst on loan at Hibernian last season; and now his parent club Wolves will hope he can repeat that feat to help fire them out of the third tier. It is notable that Corals have gone best price about him taking the Golden Boot with a quote of 9/1, bearing in mind that their head football trader is a Wolves fan. Griffiths who is yet to make a competitive start for Wolves, showed last season he has undoubted ability and takes a mean free kick, but single figure quotes look too skinny for me. One Molyneux based player who is of interest though is Griffith’s potential strike partner Björn Sigurðarson. If Kevin Doyle follows Sylvain Ebanks-Blake out of the club this summer, then the Icelandic international is likely to be first choice to take one of the striking berths. Sigurðarson had a difficult first season in English football, scoring just five goals as Wolves were relegated, but if the £2.4m striker starts the first game of the season it is likely that the 40/1 on offer with Ladbrokes will be halved. I am holding fire on this one at the moment, but if it looks as if Sigurðarson has forced himself into the first team during pre-season then I advise taking a small each-way interest. Of the other players high up in the betting a few caught my eye. Sheffield United is still trying to replace the goals of the disgraced Ched Evans, and have acquired Lyle Taylor from Falkirk where he was prolific last term with 24 league goals. The 23 year old Taylor has previously played in League One with Bournemouth, and failed to score in 29 appearances, so is probably best just watched at the moment, despite the tempting 33/1 about him. Nahki Wells of Bradford is available at 25/1 to top the scoring charts. The pacy Bermudian scored 22 league goals last season from just 32 starts, but given he is likely to attract interest from teams in the top two divisions I think there is only minimal value here. Another striker who proved himself in League 2 last season is Tom Pope, who top scored in all three Football League divisions last season with 31 goals. Lifelong Vale fan Pope seems to have knuckled down under Port Vale’s experienced manager Micky Adams, who is finally getting the best out of the 6’3 striker. Pope reminds me of a little of Grant Holt and Rickie Lambert in that he has had a bit of a journeyman career around the lower leagues, but provided he can stay fit his physical presence can cause defenders of any level problems. The 33/1 on offer looks generous, even with the possibility he may attract interest from teams in higher divisions. My second pick is a player who once netted a Premier League hat-trick against Liverpool. Leyton Orient’s Kevin Lisbie looks like he is enjoying his football under Russell Slade. The veteran striker is now 34 and age is starting to catch up with him. However he scored 16 league goals from just 23 starts last season, and helped Orient achieve their highest finish in years at they just missed out on the play-offs by one spot. If Slade can wrap him up in cotton wool for one more year then Lisbie could help the O’s go one better this year, and the quote of 66/1 is definitely generous enough for a small each-way play. Plus he takes penalties. My final pick was going to be Carlisle’s Lee Miller, but the 100/1 is now 66/1 and despite him having undoubted quality for this level, he has never been prolific. He scored 14 league goals from 32 starts for the Cumbrians last season, but this is his second best ever return, his best being 16 for Falkirk way back in 2002/03. Therefore I think he is best left alone at the shorter price. Instead I am going to plump for Ryan Lowe. The Liverpool born hitman was desperate to leave MK Dons last season and move back North, and he achieved this in June when he completed a switch to Tranmere. Ronnie Moore had been looking for a focal point to his attack since Jake Cassidy got injured early last season, and Lowe could be that man. The Scouse hitman is 34 now, but as recently as 2010/11 netted 27 times for Bury in League Two. Since then he has maintained a decent scoring record for Sheffield Wednesday and MK Dons in League One, without ever really establishing himself as a definite starter. At Tranmere he should be the main man once again, and the 50/1 on him enjoying a remarkable swansong to his career is worth taking. Recommendations: Tom Pope 1 point each way @ 33/1 with Corals Kevin Lisbie ½ point each way @ 66/1 with William Hill Ryan Lowe ½ point each way @ 50/1 with Corals |
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Hopefully I will get a chance to do League 2 in the next few days
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Good write ups mumrah.
But as its not a 'Dave Moyes is a tw@t' or 'Rooney needs to shift some weight and grow some hair' thread then this will probably fall off the bottom of the forum. Which would be a shame. Forum was decent about 10 years ago now its just a circus full of m0ngs. |
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Good write up. Cannot touch James Vaughan though. Has always been made of glass :(
Replace him with another former Everton man jutkiewicz at 100/1 - Could grab a place! |
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Agree with you about Brentford. I have supported the Bees since about 1945 and I cant remember when the club was better run than now. Uwe Rosler is putting together a very good squad and expectations are very high. It may be a blessing in disguise that we missed out last season as the squad was not really good enough. Clayton Donaldson scored plenty of goals but we needed a striker along side him. We now have Will Grigg who scored plenty for Walsall.The money Matthew Benham has put into the club is being spent wisely and I am expecting this season to be our best for many years.
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A great write-up by the way. Threads like this are always worth reading.
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The only other team I am considering backing for relegation is Middlesbrough at 10/1. Their Premier League parachute payments have come to an end, and according to their latest accounts the club lost £13.5m for the 12 month period running up to June 30, 2012. Their generous chairman Steve Gibson says he will continue to support the club financially, but the days of Juninho and Fabrizio Ravanelli gracing the Riverside are long gone.
    To be honest, we probably have just enough talent in our young players to avoid being in a relegation battle. Pre season hasn't gone too badly though it is slightly worrying that Mowbray has got rid of 11 players from last season and brought in just Two so far, in Jozsef Varga and Dean Whitehead. Reports ive read suggest they are working hard to bring in a couple of strikers and i think that was a major problem last season as there were a number of games where they didnt take their chances. Excellent write up by the way  |
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Thanks for the feedback. Here is League 2:
League Two 2013/14 Preview Outright winner This is probably the trickiest division to call given the high turnover of players, and the fact that throughout the season League Two managers will look to pick up a number of loans from the youth teams of sides from higher up the pyramid. Keeping on top of all these moves and the latest injuries and news from all the clubs is an almost impossible job, but it is equally hard for the bookmakers, so if you look around you can find some great value. The 5/1 outright favourites are the 2008 FA Cup winners, Portsmouth, who are competing at this level for the first time since 1980. There is renewed optimism around Fratton Park after the club finally exited administration when the Pompey Supporters' Trust's deal to buy the club was completed. Local hero Guy Whittingham is the new full time manager following his spell as caretaker last season, after he got the team to show glimpses of form in the spring. Yet if you actually look down the Pompey squad list there aren’t too many names that jump out at you. David Connolly is probably the most notable player on their books and is the favourite to be the division’s top scorer with many of the bookmakers. The former Irish international scored notched seven league goals from 15 starts for Pompey last season, but is 36 now and his best days are long behind him. Therefore I cannot advise backing Portsmouth currently, but the danger is as they are the biggest club (they claim to have sold 10,000 season tickets already) in the division that they should be able to attract the best out of contract and loan signings that are available, so they are definitely one to keep an eye on. The next two teams in the betting are Fleetwood and Chesterfield, and both of these outfits look interesting propositions. Last season Fleetwood spent big in attracting players such as Jon Parkin and Damien Johnson to the club, yet finished the season disappointingly in the bottom half. Despite this Rookie manager Graham Alexander has received the backing of his ambitious chairman Andy Pilley in the close season. The Cod Army have once again splashed the cash to attract a number of highly rated performers for this division. In particular the new arrivals of Steven Schumacher, Jeff Hughes, Mark Roberts and Ryan Cresswell (a big centre back who is always worth following for first goalscorer) should do well, although I would hate to see the club’s wage bill. My main concern with tipping Fleetwood is the inexperience of Alexander, who has no far failed to demonstrate any real flair in the job. However Pilley was ruthless in dispensing of Micky Mellon last season shortly after he had delivered the club the Conference title, and so if Fleetwood do start slowly, a managerial change will surely not be long in coming. The club are fiercely ambitious and have demonstrated they have the resources to match, and worth an interest at 8/1. Chesterfield is also heavily fancied by many to make the return to League One this season, after finishing one place outside the play-offs last season in eighth. Manager Paul Cook has made a number of additions to last season’s squad including experienced winger Gary Roberts, but his most important signing may prove to be Leam Richardson. Richardson was impressive in managing Accrington Stanley away from a relegation battle in the final months of last season, and so it is quite a coup for Cook to persuade Richardson to leave the hot seat to be his assistant. The Spireites should definitely be in the mix for promotion this season, but at a short looking 9/1 I think there is better value out there. Of the other contenders, there are a couple who interest me. Bristol Rovers showed good form after Christmas, although it tailed off towards the end of the season. The eagle-eyed amongst you may have noticed this upturn coincided with John-Joe O’Toole’s loan spell from Colchester. This deal was made permanent this week, and if he can avoid injury should be one of the star performers at this level. However the West Country club are heading into the season with eight first-team regulars out injured ahead of the new season, including key performers Ollie Clarke, Fabian Broghammer, and Ryan Brunt. Therefore I recommend keeping a close eye on the injury list, and maybe consider getting involved once it has cleared up, as there should be more generous odds than the current best of 16/1 around. So instead I am going to recommend a small play on Oxford. Their marquee signing this summer has been Dave Kitson, but Chris Wilder’s lower profile signings may hold the key. Johnny Mullins is an excellent acquisition from Rotherham, and the defender will be looking to secure his second successive promotion from League Two. Another quality addition is the versatile Jonathan Meades from Bournemouth. Meades spent last season on loan at AFC Wimbledon, and was a stand out performer in their successful battle against the drop, so much so he won their young player of the year award. If the squad gels, there should be some value in the 22/1 on offer. Recommendations: Fleetwood 2 points each-way @ 8/1 with Boyles, Corals, Ladbrokes, Skybet and Stan James Oxford United 1 point each-way @ 22/1 with Corals & Skybet Relegation With only two relegation spots to the Conference this a tough market to get right. Therefore I am going to tip two clubs at big prices and hope they perform poorly, with a view to reassess the market throughout the season, when I will consider laying back or hedging my position. Accrington Stanley and Dagenham & Redbridge are the joint 9/2 favourites in this market and it is easy to see why the bookies don’t rate their chances. Both clubs are run on a shoestring and both lost talented managers in the last few months and have replaced them with rookies starting out in the game. Stanley chose to promote ex-England international James Beattie to the hot-seat, and he has already lost his star player after Lee Molyneux decided not to renew his contract and left for Crewe. However he has managed to keep another ex-England cap at the club in Francis Jeffers at the club, and added experience with Nicky Hunt from Rotherham. I have no doubt it will be a tough learning curve for Beattie, but I think given his contacts at Premier League clubs he maybe able to get some interesting loans. I doubt Stanley will finish outside the bottom six, but there is enough potential there to leave them alone at the moment. The Daggers also chose an internal candidate to replace club legend John Still, when they appointed Still’s assistant Wayne Burnett. Still was so integral to the club’s success that it looks a very tough gig for his successor. However he did leave one parting gift, a 20% sell-on clause in Dwight Gayle’s transfer to Peterborough. Gayle has just moved to Premier League Crystal Palace for a reported £6m, and so Burnett should be able to bring a few new bodies in. So far he has just signed two players, Afolabi Obafemi from Orient, and intriguingly striker Rhys Murphy. 22 year old Murphy was an Arsenal youth product who spent last season with Telstar in the Dutch second division, where he netted eight times. If Burnett can invest his windfall in a couple of gems, as Still did in the past, then the Daggers should have just enough. My first pick is Exeter at 12/1. Devon clubs have enough trouble attracting players to the outposts of the West Country, but it is even tougher for Exeter who are fan owned and therefore unable to rely on a wealthy benefactor to pick up the bills. They do possess a brilliant manager in Paul Tisdale who led the club from the conference to an incredible eighth placed League One finish in 2011. However since then the Grecians have been relegated and earlier this summer Tisdale announced that budget cuts meant that he would be limited to just one or two summer signings. Jamie Cureton was the club’s top scorer from last season with 21 league goals, but he has chosen to depart for Cheltenham. Cureton has been replaced by another veteran in Sam Parkin from St Mirren, but he just scored three times last season. The cupboard looks bear for the Devon club, and if they start poorly or suffer injuries they could struggle to turn it around. My second pick is a team that finished in the top half last season, but could be in for a shock this time round. Southend United seem to be in permanent disagreement with HM Revenue & Customs over their tax bill, yet always seem to muddle through. However this summer they have also lost a number of key performers from on the pitch. Loan striker Britt Assombalonga was the star of last season but has returned to parent club Watford and his partner up front Gavin Tomlin has departed for Port Vale. While giant centre half, Ryan Cresswell has returned up North to Fleetwood. The Shrimpers do still have a few decent players in defender Mark Phillips, and provided he can stay fit, striker Barry Corr. It will be interesting to see how manager Phil Brown will perform on the basement division, but the 20/1 on offer for his failure is too tempting to ignore. Recommendations: Exeter 2 points @ 12/1 with Paddy Power & William Hill Southend 2 points @ 20/1 with Corals Top Goalscorer The shortest price on any player in this market is 12/1, (although if you just take into account the best price on players then the favourite is Tom Craddock at 16/1), and only two players are quoted at bigger than 150/1. This illustrates just how wide open a race this is. The favourites are either Portsmouth strikers (Tom Craddock, David Connolly), or more well known players who have performed at higher levels without ever being prolific in the past, and are now winding down their careers in the lower echelons of the league (Dave Kitson, Jamie Cureton, Jon Parkin). These players hold no real interest for me as I think that their prices are more based on reputation, be it the reputation of their club, or their past reputation as a player, rather than fact. My first pick is a player who is a seasoned campaigner at this level and one who shared the League Two Golden Boot a couple of seasons ago. Jack Midson scored 18 league goals that season in his first at AFC Wimbledon, and followed that up with 13 last. When considering last season’s total it is worth bearing in mind that he seemed to have a falling out with manager Neal Ardley in the middle of the season, before being reinstated to the team to score the penalty that ensured the club’s survival, with just 20 minutes of the season to go. Midson will no doubt be on penalties again this season and has the form to go the course at a fair price of 25/1. Ashley Grimes, who can be backed at 50/1, is my next choice. In June, Bury managed to snatch him from under Cheltenham’s noses with a two year contract. It is easy to see why he is a player in demand at this level. Although Grimes will have been disappointed with his return of just 11 league goals lat season, it did come from just 27 starts. Prior to that his last experience of this division was in a poor Lincoln side during 2010-11, when he netted 15 times in 24 starts. If he can get anywhere close to that ratio he should be able to grab at least a place at big odds. My final selection is Newport County’s pacy attacker Christian Jolley. Jolley previously played at this level with AFC Wimbledon, but after a promising first season at this level his form tailed off. He was sent out on loan to Newport where he impressed sufficiently that the deal was quickly made permanent. Many Newport fans consider Jolley to have been the final piece in the jigsaw as his 14 goals in 23 starts helped secure promotion. If he can continue this form into the new season, the quotes of 100/1 could look very generous. Recommendations: Jack Midson 1 point each-way @ 25/1 with Corals, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power & William Hill Ashley Grimes ½ point each-way @ 50/1 with Corals Christian Jolley ½ point each-way @ 100/1 with Corals |
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a very good read...thanx
a few of your selections i agree with, and of course, there are some i dont... but still, a very good, well thought out and written piece... a great shame we dont have more of this sort of thing on here... GL |
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this post of an actual betting thread, on a betting site, is obviously too much for some people to take in
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Regarding the league 1 top scorer...
It looks like Kenny Jacket will play with Griffiths as a lone striker, Siggurdarson looks like playing wide right at the moment. Make no mistake tho, Siggy is a very decent striker. Should the tactics eventually become 4-4-2 then he is massively over priced and each way would be the move. I am pretty confident Griffiths will outscore him tho. Regards Wolves to win the league.... They will have to outscore teams because we are still pretty woeful at the back despite having two excellent goalkeepers. |
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dont really go with the no bet thing on the championship.
i think watford look fantastic value at 12/1. wigan 12/1 and reading 9/1 are pretty good too. i wouldnt go near qpr, forest, leicester, brighton or bolton at their prices. definitely think theres value in any or all of the other 3. i wouldnt back forest or leicester at 25/1 nevermind 11/1. the bookies must be on crack. |
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league two looks a right mess, i agree pompey dont look that good on paper but its hard finding alternatives. if pompey dont win it, half the league could win it. i dont fancy bristol rovers or oxford at all, but beyond that im struggling. burton may be worth backing to get promotion at about 5/1.
league one i agree with brentford. looked a fantastic price at 10/1, think theyre mostly 9/1 now but still very decent. preston could be the new charlton or they could be mid table all season. worth keeping an eye on over the first few games. |
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CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER
wigan @ 12...alternative, ipswich @ 25 CHAMPIONSHIP RELEGATION blackpool @ 4.6...alternative, sheffield wed @ 7 LEAGUE 1 WINNER brentford @ 9.6...alternative, sheffield utd @ 10 LEAGUE 1 RELEGATION coventry @ 4.1...alternative, bristol city @ 22 LEAGUE 2 WINNER bury @ 38...alternative, wycombe @ 46 LEAGUE 2 RELEGATION york @ 9.6...alternative, bristol rov @ 27 and i have absolutely no idea on any top goal scorer market GL ALL |
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So I am quite pleased I managed to get my previews out before the Racing Post’s pull-out as now it looks like they plagiarised me on a few selections and not the other way round! ;)
Fair play to Skybet for pricing topscorer markets for all the Football League clubs (no doubt as part of their new sponsorship deal). It is just a shame they do not allow multiples, they reckon they are related contingencies  . Anyway I have been through them and picked a few fancies. It is a market I like as it is something the bookies actually have to price up themselves so obviously there are a few ricks along the way. Some picks are stronger than others, but I will let you work out which ones are which:Skybet: Kermorgant (Charlton) @ 3/1 – For the reasons stated above. Jolley (Newport) @ 10/1 – Managed to get all I could on this and now they have suspended and as yet reopened the book. Russell (Derby) @ 3/1 – Should be the key man up front for the Rams. Haynes (Notts County) @ 7/2 – Looks a touch generous for a player who was scoring goals in the Championship last season. Taylor (Sheff Utd) @ 4/1 – I know I dismissed him earlier in my outright topscorer preview, but Porter is a very weak favourite. Brandy (Sheff Utd) @ 10/1 – As above Porter is a weak favourite. Mirallas (Everton) @ 8/1 – Great player, tasty price given Everton is a graveyard for strikers. Nuhiu (Sheff Wed) @ 5/1 – Interesting player, worth a gamble as could be a big hit. Tounkara (Stevenage) @ 6/1 – Bit of an unknown quantity but worth a gamble. Morgan (Plymouth) @ 5/1 – Reid is a weak favourite here are netting just 3 in 18 for the Pilgrims last season. Clucas (Mansfield) @ 12/1 – With Matt Green gone, this goalscoring winger looks a big price. Zamora (QPR) @ 9/2 – Just 7/4 with VC, worth a punt as maybe only striker at the club soon! Ibhere (Colchester) @ 6/1 – Should be the starting striker. Hewitt (Walsall) @ 10/1 – I don’t rate him, but from what I can ascertain he is likely to start on his own up front. Harrold (Bristol Rovers) @ 4/1 – He is fit again this season, and everybody else at Rovers appears to be crocked. BetVictor: Maiga (West Ham) @40/1 – Wow! Cornelius (Cardiff) @ 7/2 – This boy is meant to be decent and should be the Bluebirds first choice striker. Rodallega (Fulham) @ 16/1 – Basically a small interest on Berbatov getting injured or leaving. Mellis (Barnsley) @ 16/1 – Been knocking them in for fun in pre-season. Hills: Hazard (Chelsea) @ 10/1 – With Jose seemingly unsure over Mata this is a nice price. |
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Mirallas (Everton) @ 8/1 – Great player, tasty price given Everton is a graveyard for strikers.
He is 5/1? |
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I read that Wolves get a Premier League parachute payment of £19 million this season.Their gates will also dwarf everyone else's except Sheff Utd. Given their resources, if they don't win League 1 at a canter they're seriously under-performing. When did the favourite last win League 1? It's been many years as far as I remember.
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dizzy,
there is no chance that parachute payment will be invested in the squad. unless the club shift the unwanted big earners , I can't see any players coming in. Kevin Doyle, Jamie Ohara, Roger Johnson are not part of the first team squad at the moment. Sako is until his inevitable move, but the rest are all young home grown plus Griffiths ,Sigudarson. There will definitely not be any cantering at Molineux unless League 1 is very poor. Wolves are still very fragile in defence. |
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My team, Donny Rovers were unworthy champions really last season. Their performances, especially at home were woeful on the whole, but somehow we managed to go up.
The alleged big investment has seemingly fallen through today, the squad is paper thin at the moment and is made up of last seasons squad with a few uninspiring additions. Plus our best defender, Tommy Spurr, has just joined Blackburn. As things stand I'd say we were certainties for relegation. Looking at mumrah's predictions, the only one I'd take issue with is Notts County to be relegated. They were very strong late last season and completely outplayed Donny in our last home game of the season. They were brilliant on the day. I've backed them e/w to win League one. |
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Wolves aint signed ****. and probably wont be doing all season. That said, i'd expect Wolves, Brentford and possibly Peterborough to piss the league. The other bigger clubs or recent challengers like sheff utd, coventry, mk dons and swindon havent got a pot to piddle in. preston and notts county could be the dark horses. but cant see past those first 3 i mentioned.
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notts county to get relegated is utterly ludicrous. they had the best squad in the division last year imo, somehow they managed to make a right horlicks of it. theyve lost several good players, but still have a decent team. outside bet for the play offs for me.
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Si-K, at the time I posted Mirallas was 8/1 with Betvictor, he is now best 7/1 with Ladbrokes. You can see the market here:
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/everton/top-league-goalscorer and also see the price history of players by clicking on the graph icon by the players name. Regarding Notts County, it is hard to follow all 72 league clubs closely given all you can really see on TV is the goals, but when looking at their departures I felt they had been significantly weakened, and didn't seem to have the cash to replace like with like. Collywobble good luck with your ew bets , if they don't get relegated, then I hope they win you some money. And sideshowbob, if you really think that it is ludicrous for them to get relegated maybe you could put a ludicrous price up in the market for me?  |
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it is ludicrous, but i wouldnt lay big prices in a market like that. no liquidity whatsoever, so if i want the money back im screwed. plus far better things to do than lay 5/1 shots or whatever they are.
the better value in all longterm markets is backing. you can back woves, brentford and peterborough for the title at combined odds of about 5/4. much better value than laying anybody in any market. thats why liquidity is always so poor and the prices are usually lower than at the bookies. county are about 6/1 to get relegated, i think they should be about 16/1 but i wouldnt lay them higher than 2/1 simply cos its not worth tieing up money on such a small percentage profit compared to the better value bets available. something like watford to win the league at 12/1 or even 11/1 is the bet of the century compared to laying anybody to get relegated at 6/1. county have been weakened badly in midfield, but have signed a few good players too. like i said before, last season they had the best squad in the division imo but underachieved woefully. they were favourites for the title at one point very early in the season. and despite being 12th they only lost 1 game more than the champions. no way will they go down. coventry might though. |
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QPR look 2 shot to me
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Great write up's. Let's keep this thread near the top.
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Excellent write up Mumrah , can tell quite a bit of effort has gone into those and very best of luck with your selections.
I wish you could bet on the exact finishing position of a team because Leeds to finish exactly in half way is a good shout. |
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Cheers mumrah.. I have gone in hard on Mirallas at 7/1. Best bet I have seen in a year or two + efc fan
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my pre season bet
treble 4bets championship reading or wigan div 1 bristol city div 2 chesterfield or cheltenham gl all |
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Great thread, just want to put my 3 up
QPR @7 Bradford@26 Bristol Rov@16 3 singles on here. |
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A mixed bag so far this season as expected, but at least there are some live runners at decent prices going into the final few months.
Anyway I think I have found a nice price in the League One relegation market. MK Dons sit tenth in the table and are nine points above the relegation zone, but have lost their last 3 against the teams 17th, 18th and 19th in the table without scoring a single goal. In the January transfer window they lost their best player Shaun Williams to Millwall. Set-piece specialist Williams played in both defence and midfield, and had scored ten goals already this season. They also lost their top scorer Patrick Bamford, when his loan from Chelsea was not renewed. Bamford has since been loaned to Derby in the Championship, where he has scored in each of the four league games he has played. With money tight at the club Jordan Spence was brought in on loan from West Ham until the end of the season to cover for William's departure, and young Everton striker Chris Long joined on a one month deal to offer cover up front, however these players are no replacement for the quality lost. Manager Karl Robinson was quoted after last week's 3-0 defeat at Carlisle as saying: "I gave them a chance. No more. The players have no excuses. They'll have individual meetings on Wednesday, and some will be told they might have played their last game for me. I can't put that team back on the pitch again together." His frustration with his squad is clear, and given that since then the transfer window has shut with only Spence being added, he may have to manage his players very carefully until the end of the season. Otherwise he may risk that old cliché of losing the dressing room, if he hasn't already. All of this points to a tricky end to the season for the club. I would also recommend backing Walsall at odds against this weekend to beat them, as I doubt there will be anything above evens come kick-off. Recommendation: MK Dons to be relegated - 1 point @ 100/1 with Stan James |
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I was at the Carlisle/MK Dons match, MK were absolutely appalling. A few people heard Robinson screaming at the players at half time, they seem to have serious problems, the 100/1 might not be a bad bet at all.
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Thanks for the info Sergei, into 66s now which is possibly still worth a small interest.
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So last season’s performance was pretty woeful, with just 2 places from 20 selections. There were some close misses such as Blackpool, Notts County and Ryan Lowe, but there were also some dreadful picks such as Swindon and Ashley Grimes. In summary, just 14.25 points were returned from 42 staked, giving an ROI of -66.1%.
However a new season gives us a new opportunity to dream, or lose money! So here are a few early picks: Watford 2 points each-way to win the Championship @ 22/1 with SportingOdds (20/1 generally) Yesterday the Hornets triumphantly announced that they had recaptured the Czech striker Matej Vydra on a season-long loan. In his previous spell with the club he won the Football League Player of the Year for the 2012-13 season, as he netted 20 goals in 34 Championship appearances. That season Watford were only denied promotion to the Premier League by an extra-time penalty in the play-Off Final from Crystal Palace’s Kevin Phillips. Vydra’s arrival heralds the Pozzo family’s continued investment in the club, and their determination to reach the Premier League. The family have the money and connections to bring quality players to the squad and I am sure the will be looking to keep last year’s top scorer Troy Deeney at Vicarage Road to partner Vydra. I would have backed them earlier this summer but was worried Deeney may leave for the Premier League, however interestingly it was Deeney who broke the news of a major signing on Twitter, 24 hours before Vydra’s return was officially announced. So that hardly looks like the behaviour of a player that is agitating to leave. Watford’s other summer transfer additions of Heurelho Gomes, Gabriel Tamas, Lloyd Dyer and Craig Cathcart all like they have the ability to do well in the Championship. I would take 20/1 or above now as I doubt they will be bigger than 16s when the first ball of the season is kicked. Reading 1 point to be relegated from the Championship @ 20/1 generally available Recent seasons have seen some big clubs with recent Premier League experience relegated to League 1 (Wolves, Sheffield United), and Reading could be the latest to add to this list. It has been a difficult time for the Royals since Anton Zingarevich bought a 51% stake in the Championship club in May 2012. Zingarevich did not attend a single game last season, with Sir John Madejski resuming day-to-day control in February. It is said Madejski has lost around £300m of his near £400m fortune, and is desperate to conclude a takeover. In the meantime the club have released a number of key high-earning players from recent campaigns such as Captain Jobi McAnuff, Kaspars Gorkss and Mikele Leigertwood. Adam Le Fondre also left to Cardiff in a £2.5million deal which is believed to have been pushed through so that Reading could settle a £1.6 million tax bill with HM Revenue & Customs. In the aftermath of that transfer, the Royal’s Director of Football Nick Hammond was quoted as saying: “We are all disappointed to see him go but in these challenging times this is a vital and necessary deal for the club, and a deal that makes financial sense for both the club and the player.” With all this uncertainty surrounding the club a small investment at a big price seems a fair shout. York City 1 point each-way to win League 2 @ 18/1 generally available The 22/1 available earlier this summer has disappeared, but the Minstermen could still represent good value at 18/1. They ended last season with a 17 match unbeaten run which saw them snatch a play-off berth, however this was one step too far for them as they succumbed to Fleetwood side who would go on to win promotion. In manager Nigel Worthington they possess a vastly experienced manager who arrived late in the 2012/13 season to rescue the club from an increasingly likely immediate relegation to the conference. Last season they started poorly and at Christmas looked as if they were in a relegation battle, before they rallied with their great end of season run. York’s main weakness last season was the lack of a goalscorer. Wes Fletcher was the top marksman for the Minstermen with 10 league goals. This summer they have signed Jake Hyde, who when he last played in this division two seasons ago scored 14 league goals for a poor relegated Barnet side. As I said last season this league is notoriously difficult to call with so little variance in the size of the clubs and budgets to the other divisions, however if Worthington’s men can continue where they left off last season they should go very close. |
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[b**** Garcia to be Top Middlesbrough League Goalscorer - 5 points @ 3/1 (BetVictor)[/b]
Middlesbrough manager Aitor Karanka likes to play just one up front and has spent a reported €3.5 million on **** Garcia to be that man. **** seems to be settling in well to his new club and has scored 3 goals in the last 4 friendlies. Last season winger Albert Adomah was the only Boro player to reach double figures in the league with 12 goals, and so it was obvious up front was an area to strengthen. **** comes with good pedigree, having finished second top scorer with 23 strikes in the Spanish Segunda Division last season. The last week has seen Boro backed from 22/1 to 14/1 to win the league and if they are to have a good season as many judges seem to think, then they must obviously rate ****. He can be backed at 25/1 to be the divisions top scorer, but that is a tough race to call. So instead take the 3/1 for him to be top Boro scorer |
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**** = k i k e
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