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I've been running a POC to myself for a few weeks and it seems to be working, so I thought I'd pop it on here as I got some questions in a different thread about it.
"Da Rulez"
1. Find a game I believe to be a genuine unders candidate
2. Place a bet at KO on under 2.5 goals
3. Immediately place a lay bet for 20-25 ticks lower than the back price
4. ????
5. Profit
Bankroll management; My starting bank is £300 and I'm placing 10% at stake as my standard stake. The 10% will be calculated each Friday based on my BR at that time and will be set for the following week.
In conjunction I will be paper trading the same bets but with the following strategies;
Weighted Profit; wait for the ~20 ticks and then lay off but weight all profit to unders
Let it Ride; just plain old gambling!
Exit Strategy: In the event of an early goal I will asses and either red out for around 25-33% loss of stake or, if it's a wonder goal/I really trust my analysis, I'll sweat it out for a time and look to cash out for no loss.
No specific target in mind, just looking to take a POC public and try to win a few hundred quid.
"Da Rulez"
1. Find a game I believe to be a genuine unders candidate
2. Place a bet at KO on under 2.5 goals
3. Immediately place a lay bet for 20-25 ticks lower than the back price
4. ????
5. Profit
Bankroll management; My starting bank is £300 and I'm placing 10% at stake as my standard stake. The 10% will be calculated each Friday based on my BR at that time and will be set for the following week.
In conjunction I will be paper trading the same bets but with the following strategies;
Weighted Profit; wait for the ~20 ticks and then lay off but weight all profit to unders
Let it Ride; just plain old gambling!
Exit Strategy: In the event of an early goal I will asses and either red out for around 25-33% loss of stake or, if it's a wonder goal/I really trust my analysis, I'll sweat it out for a time and look to cash out for no loss.
No specific target in mind, just looking to take a POC public and try to win a few hundred quid.
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if you stick to the main live games you should be ok as the liquidity in some games is so low you wont get matched even though the markets are telling you that you should ie you 20 ticks lower should get matched because the game has ben 0-0 for 10 minutes but because there is no liquidity you havent been matched
when i mean live games i mean the main tv stations like sky espn bbc itv
Jun 14, 2013 -- 1:12PM, Everton_2006 wrote:Why duke?
if you stick to the main live games you should be ok as the liquidity in some games is so low you wont get matched even though the markets are telling you that you should ie you 20 ticks lower should get matched because the game has ben 0-0 for 10 minutes but because there is no liquidity you havent been matched
I've been stung by liquidity before, doing this on some games where I can't get matched, goal goes in, grrr arrr. I've learnt that lesson but I'm not too concerned until I get to the stage where several hundred is going down at once.
@GTFI - I got this whole idea from you mate so cheers. I'm very very new to south american leagues so will steer clear unless a really good looking game jumps out at me
The only thing about Argy is its the last - or last but one game of season - so would perhaps say you're wise to stear clear mate :)
did you get on the loko astana game - still only one shot OT
nope, it had kicked off and had 5 minutes gone before I saw and the price had already dropped 10 ticks. With hindsight a mistake but one that didn't cost me anything!
I took it 30 mins into the game when saw 1-0 OT :)
Fixtures 14 June / FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy / Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals Lay 27691940495 14-Jun-13
13:50 1.2 40.00 1.2 14-Jun-13 13:50
Fixtures 14 June / FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy / Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals Back 27691633773 14-Jun-13
13:34 1.3 8.26 1.3 14-Jun-13 13:34
Fixtures 14 June / FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy / Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals Back 27691614633 14-Jun-13
13:33 1.32 31.74 1.32 14-Jun-13 13:34
Fixtures 14 June / FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy / Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals Lay 27691940495 14-Jun-13
13:50 1.2 40.00 1.2 14-Jun-13 13:50
Fixtures 14 June / FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy / Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals Back 27691633773 14-Jun-13
13:34 1.3 8.26 1.3 14-Jun-13 13:34
Fixtures 14 June / FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy / Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals Back 27691614633 14-Jun-13
13:33 1.32 31.74 1.32 14-Jun-13 13:34
Bet1: FC Zhetysu v FK Aktobe Back @ 1.87, Lay set at 1.67
GL us then lol
Fixtures 14 June / FC Zhetysu v FK Aktobe / Over/Under 2.5 Goals Under 2.5 Goals Back 27692107719 14-Jun-13
13:58 1.87 40.00 1.87 14-Jun-13 13:58
Fixtures 14 June / FC Zhetysu v FK Aktobe / Over/Under 2.5 Goals Under 2.5 Goals Back 27692107719 14-Jun-13
13:58 1.87 40.00 1.87 14-Jun-13 13:58
cheers mate - hope you make a go of it :) - btw - feel free to make a fred on my site too where it wont get lost in the clutter of freds on here
but don't really fancy maintaining 2 threads plus my excel spreadsheet
that sounds reasonable to me mate - no probs ;)
What excel sheet you using? Need any help?
What excel sheet you using? Need any help?
out :)
Fixtures 14 June / FC Zhetysu v FK Aktobe / Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals Lay 27692310825 14-Jun-13
14:07 1.67 40.00 1.67 14-Jun-13 14:16
Well found mate - Cheers
Fixtures 14 June / FC Zhetysu v FK Aktobe / Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals Lay 27692310825 14-Jun-13
14:07 1.67 40.00 1.67 14-Jun-13 14:16
Well found mate - Cheers
Bet1 (Won): FC Zhetysu v FK Aktobe Back @ 1.87, Lay set at 1.67, +3.42, Running Total £3.42
enjoy your extra couple of quid. not sure yet, something in Finland at 4:30 I imagine
http://www.sportstats.com/soccer/finland/kakkonen-east/standings/
away team get thumped loads - even though last two home games have been 1-0 results :(
http://www.sportstats.com/soccer/finland/kakkonen-south/kapa-lps-vNmlV9W0/
Could be a 10% rather than 20 perhaps? Seems a bit of a 50/50 game for unders
Could be a 10% rather than 20 perhaps? Seems a bit of a 50/50 game for unders
I'm tempted to leave the afternoon KOs all together, I'm in no rush to lose my cash :D
there is plenty on later, including the dirge that is the irish league
I REALLY REALLY fancy the 2 goals in Orebro match - but waiting to see what odds come up. dont like taking under 1.25 so hopefully will reach it at some point
WP mate - I got 11% from it as I was late going in. also got 20% from Lahti game before a boom :)
Bet2 (won): FC Viikingit v Haka Back @ 1.9, Lay set at 1.7, +3.35, Running Total £6.77
Bet3: Melgar v Leon De Huanuco Back @ 1.65, Lay set at 1.4
Bet3(won): Melgar v Leon De Huanuco Back @ 1.65, Lay set at 1.4, +5.09, Running Total +£11.86
Bet4: Sapporo v Toyama Back in play 1-0 @ 2.1, Lay set at 1.85
Bet4(won): Sapporo v Toyama Back in play 1-0 @ 2.1, Lay set at 1.85, +3.86, Running Total £15.72
You could really gear this up and not need to mess around with keep bets by just laying 0-10 minutes on First Goal Odds on every market out there.
First Goal Odds aren't available on all games. Also I'm not hitting random games, I'm trying to select genuine unders games for this.
Bet5: Nagasaki v Tokyo-V Back @ 1.62, Lay set at 1.4
Bet6: Kitakyushu v Kumamoto Back @ 1.62, Lay set at 1.4
Bet6: Kitakyushu v Kumamoto Back @ 1.62, Lay set at 1.4
Early goal in Bet 6!, going to watch the market for a few minutes and make a decision
Goodness me, early goal in Bet5 as well! 
I feel a loss coming in both games.
I feel a loss coming in both games.
Jun 15, 2013 -- 9:00AM, ShirleyKnot wrote:
You could really gear this up and not need to mess around with keep bets by just laying 0-10 minutes on First Goal Odds on every market out there.
And these early goals are the reasons I'm not going this way. I can still recoup a decent % of my stake after an early goal
Both these games seeming to settle down, no shots on target in either after the goal.
Bet7: Tottori v FC Gifu Back @ 1.62, Lay set at 1.4 (getting deja vu with these prices today!)
2nd goal in Kitakyushu, typically I'd just gone to make a brew come back and 2-0. Have cashed out 25% of my stake on that one now
Bet6(lost): Kitakyushu v Kumamoto Back @ 1.62, Lay at 6, -21.90, Running Total will wait until everything has settled.
I feel a bit miffed considering 3 shots on target has resulted in 2 goals.
Bet5(won): Nagasaki v Tokyo-V Back @ 1.62, Lay @ 1.54, +1.54, Running total -£4.70
Tottori game feed unavailable if it opens at HT I'll trade out and that'll be me done for the day. To much risk of chasing/tilting hard
if it opens at HT I'll trade out and that'll be me done for the day. To much risk of chasing/tilting hard
Every game I've backed this morning after the first has had a goal inside 10 minutes, this is the counter to my 10 and 8 run streaks of getting it right I guess
and tottori has gone 3-1 before I could get out. Horrifc, car crash betting this morning
Summary of my bets this morning;
5 Nagasaki v Tokyo-V £30.00 Under 2.5 Back 1.62 Lay1.54 £1.48 £17.20
6 Kitakyushu v Kumamoto £30.00 Under 2.5 Back 1.62 Lay1.4 -£21.90 -£4.70
7 Tottori v FC Gifu £30.00 Under 2.5 Back 1.62 -£30.00 -£34.70
8 Kyoto v Ehime £30.00 Under 2.5 Back 1.798 Lay2.92 -£11.57 -£46.27
It's going to to take about 10-15 winning bets to recoups this, probably 4-5 days work
5 Nagasaki v Tokyo-V £30.00 Under 2.5 Back 1.62 Lay1.54 £1.48 £17.20
6 Kitakyushu v Kumamoto £30.00 Under 2.5 Back 1.62 Lay1.4 -£21.90 -£4.70
7 Tottori v FC Gifu £30.00 Under 2.5 Back 1.62 -£30.00 -£34.70
8 Kyoto v Ehime £30.00 Under 2.5 Back 1.798 Lay2.92 -£11.57 -£46.27
It's going to to take about 10-15 winning bets to recoups this, probably 4-5 days work
J - K - S leagues are impossible mate - never back them for unders. Sorry only just woke up.
I suggest you add the following rules
1) Wait until KO'd to be sure it's in-play - then back it AT Ko
2) sometimes if you think it is going to be unders, take 10%. 20% is only for games that i put in my list - you hae to be pretty sure about your stuff to go for 20%.
Another possible suggestion - Currently I have channged my strategy to 20% for 2 goals - then im using martingale for a bet that losses to recoup a loss-
I suggest you add the following rules
1) Wait until KO'd to be sure it's in-play - then back it AT Ko
2) sometimes if you think it is going to be unders, take 10%. 20% is only for games that i put in my list - you hae to be pretty sure about your stuff to go for 20%.
Another possible suggestion - Currently I have channged my strategy to 20% for 2 goals - then im using martingale for a bet that losses to recoup a loss-
Stay possitive mate - you was on to a good run - just be more selective and don rush it :)
I tried this challenge myself... make me very nervous ticking down the seconds
I love it and can double my bank most days - but i tend to go for way less on games im unfamiliar with - using say £20 and constantly rolling over builds up very fast just taking 4-5-6% etc. Over a 12hrs period I expect to make the £20 into £50 (dependent on what games are playing (Avoid J-K-S, unders ie 20's,19's ,and women) do that and you are 80% there.
Also if correct score odds 0-0 is above say 15's at KO, forget it!! keep out
Cheers for the feedback guys. I'm having horrid luck today in general not jsut on here so staying away for the rest of today (car got vandalised overnight and couldn't get into town because of a polic block). J, K and S leagues have always been good for me, tight 1st half, open 2nd half. Today was just an anomaly. But this is why I have BR management. My BR has dropped to £254 because of a horrible day but I'm still in the game.
gl then mate - onwards and upwards is my motto... 1 or 2 days of **** always happens mate - regardless of who you are or how good you are imo
OK, woke up yesterday and that loss was still annoying, so took the day off. Shame it had to happen on a weekend when the most games are available but there is (IMO) never a justification for betting whilst on tilt. Back on it today looking to get that loss back by the end of the week
Picked the wrong day for it. The only game that looks like it could possibly be unders is the Argie B game. Everything else looks overs to me.
I must admit CJ the lack of fixtures is not particularly enticing. May very well just have today off as well. Better that than unnecessarily going in for stuff
another day off yesterday then. Lets hope there is something better today!
Bet9(win): KooTeePee v PK-35, Back @ 1.84, Lay at 1.64, +3.5, RT -£42.77
Bet10: FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy, Back @ 1.64, Lay set at 1.51 - only going for a small number of ticks as I want to be in and out very quickly for this one.
Bet10(won): FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy, Back @ 1.64, Lay at 1.51, +2.47, RT -£40.30
cheers, didn't expect this to drop quite so sharp but don't be greedy :)
you should be looking forward to tomorrow... it's a layer & a trader's dream... Spain are expect to hockey Tahiti by at least 5 or 6... assuming they don't score in the opening few minutes like Nigeria did, the goal odds are going to tumble quickly...
yeah unfortunately, I'll be playing cricket so will miss out on all the fun.
4:30pm Finnish games look good today. Going to pick 3...
OK I got a tiny bit carried away and went with 5 games;
Bet 11: OPS v JIPPO Back at 1.8, Lay set at 1.61
Bet 12: MyPa v HJK Helsinki Back at 1.79, Lay set at 1.59
Bet 13: Lahti v JJK Back at 1.88, Lay set at 1.65
Bet 14: TPS v RoPS Back at 2, Lay set at 1.9
Bet 15: IFK Mariehamn v KuPS Back at 2.02, Lay set at 1.92
Wish me luck
Bet 11: OPS v JIPPO Back at 1.8, Lay set at 1.61
Bet 12: MyPa v HJK Helsinki Back at 1.79, Lay set at 1.59
Bet 13: Lahti v JJK Back at 1.88, Lay set at 1.65
Bet 14: TPS v RoPS Back at 2, Lay set at 1.9
Bet 15: IFK Mariehamn v KuPS Back at 2.02, Lay set at 1.92
Wish me luck
someone must have tipped off Mariehamn, hasn't been a goal inside 20 mins of ANY of their home games this season. Score after 4 minutes
Oh wow! My luck/analysis skill from the weekend has continued. Out on 1 game, was queued for my desired lay for another when a goal went in, early goals in the other 3!
Bet 11(won): OPS v JIPPO Back at 1.8, 1.61, +3.3
Bet 12(lost): MyPa v HJK Helsinki Back at 1.79, goals at 5" and 18" did me in, -30
Bet 13(won): Lahti v JJK Back at 1.88, Lay at 1.65, +3.97
Bet 14: TPS v RoPS Back at 2, Lay at 1.9
Bet 15: IFK Mariehamn v KuPS Back at 2.02, Lay set at 1.92, +1.5
Running Total -£91.51
This is the worst run I've been on in the 89 bets I've done (only 15 on the forum) and the last 9 bets have wiped out my profit from a high of £187 to £78
I am still convinced this could work but I need to break on of my rules and drop my stake down early to £20 and build back up slowly.
Bet 12(lost): MyPa v HJK Helsinki Back at 1.79, goals at 5" and 18" did me in, -30
Bet 13(won): Lahti v JJK Back at 1.88, Lay at 1.65, +3.97
Bet 14: TPS v RoPS Back at 2, Lay at 1.9
Bet 15: IFK Mariehamn v KuPS Back at 2.02, Lay set at 1.92, +1.5
Running Total -£91.51
This is the worst run I've been on in the 89 bets I've done (only 15 on the forum) and the last 9 bets have wiped out my profit from a high of £187 to £78
I am still convinced this could work but I need to break on of my rules and drop my stake down early to £20 and build back up slowly.
Spent a week away on family holiday so not been around. But I'm back now and with a renewed outlook.
Bet 18: KooTeePee v AC Oulu, Back at 1.8, Lay set at 1.6
Bet 18: KooTeePee v AC Oulu, Back at 1.8, Lay set at 1.6
Bet 18(won): KooTeePee v AC Oulu, Back at 1.8, Lay at 1.6, +£2.37, Running Total -£108.62
A long way to go!
A long way to go!
Along similar lines to darthginge, I have been looking into the possibility of backing unders and then laying back after 18 ticks, leaving all the green on unders but no liability on overs. The dream scenario is 25 successful bets in a row on a roll up basis starting from a £200 stake. I havn't been taking into account commission but that would get to approx £12.5k.
The pitfalls, obviously a goal before trading out, I know this will happen at some point along the way, just hopefully not till after quite a few winners where it can at least be absorbed a bit. I know getting bets matched if things get to the latter stages will be very hard and would only probably be possible when the main european leagues re start and even then maybe only on televised games.
Just playing around with £2 stakes at the momment and have bet on 16 games this week, have had 11 winners and 5 games where have got out with my 18 ticks on unders but the game has ultimately finished with over 2.5 goals.
Going to have a first go at this next week but in the meantime any thoughts or opinions are welcome.
The pitfalls, obviously a goal before trading out, I know this will happen at some point along the way, just hopefully not till after quite a few winners where it can at least be absorbed a bit. I know getting bets matched if things get to the latter stages will be very hard and would only probably be possible when the main european leagues re start and even then maybe only on televised games.
Just playing around with £2 stakes at the momment and have bet on 16 games this week, have had 11 winners and 5 games where have got out with my 18 ticks on unders but the game has ultimately finished with over 2.5 goals.
Going to have a first go at this next week but in the meantime any thoughts or opinions are welcome.
Forgot to add, if the worst happens and the goal comes before " I am out", I will trade out for a level loss on both sides, I am guessing it would take another 4 successful bets to recover this. If a 2nd goal comes before " I am out", I guess I would be "down and out".
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